Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

AbstractBackground:30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes.Objective:This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx) at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT).Methods:Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC) III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves.Results:The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD), ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD) increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping.Conclusion:We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

Echocardiographic Predictors of Worse Outcome After Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy

Abstract Background: Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) is the recommended treatment by leading global guidelines. However, 30%-40% of selected patients are non-responders. Objective: To develop an echocardiographic model to predict cardiac death or transplantation (Tx) 1 year after CRT. Method: Observational, prospective study, with the inclusion of 116 patients, aged 64.89 ± 11.18 years, 69.8% male, 68,1% in NYHA FC III and 31,9% in FC IV, 71.55% with left bundle-branch block, and median ejection fraction (EF) of 29%. Evaluations were made in the pre‑implantation period and 6-12 months after that, and correlated with cardiac mortality/Tx at the end of follow-up. Cox and logistic regression analyses were performed with ROC and Kaplan-Meier curves. The model was internally validated by bootstrapping. Results: There were 29 (25%) deaths/Tx during follow-up of 34.09 ± 17.9 months. Cardiac mortality/Tx was 16.3%. In the multivariate Cox model, EF < 30%, grade III/IV diastolic dysfunction and grade III mitral regurgitation at 6‑12 months were independently related to increased cardiac mortality or Tx, with hazard ratios of 3.1, 4.63 and 7.11, respectively. The area under the ROC curve was 0.78. Conclusion: EF lower than 30%, severe diastolic dysfunction and severe mitral regurgitation indicate poor prognosis 1 year after CRT. The combination of two of those variables indicate the need for other treatment options.

Aortic Counterpulsation Therapy in Patients with Advanced Heart Failure: Analysis of the TBRIDGE Registry

Abstract Background: The use of aortic counterpulsation therapy in advanced heart failure is controversial. Objectives: To evaluate the hemodynamic and metabolic effects of intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) and its impact on 30-day mortality in patients with heart failure. Methods: Historical prospective, unicentric study to evaluate all patients treated with IABP betwen August/2008 and July/2013, included in an institutional registry named TBRIDGE (The Brazilian Registry of Intra-aortic balloon pump in Decompensated heart failure - Global Evaluation). We analyzed changes in oxygen central venous saturation (ScvO2), arterial lactate, and use of vasoactive drugs at 48 hours after IABP insertion. The 30-day mortality was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and diferences in subgroups were evaluated by the Log-rank test. Results: A total of 223 patients (mean age 49 ± 14 years) were included. Mean left ventricle ejection fraction was 24 ± 10%, and 30% of patients had Chagas disease. Compared with pre-IABP insertion, we observed an increase in ScvO2 (50.5% vs. 65.5%, p < 0.001) and use of nitroprusside (33.6% vs. 47.5%, p < 0.001), and a decrease in lactate levels (31.4 vs. 16.7 mg/dL, p < 0.001) and use of vasopressors (36.3% vs. 25.6%, p = 0.003) after IABP insertion. Thirty-day survival was 69%, with lower mortality in Chagas disease patients compared without the disease (p = 0.008). Conclusion: After 48 hours of use, IABP promoted changes in the use of vasoactive drugs, improved tissue perfusion. Chagas etiology was associated with lower 30-day mortality. Aortic counterpulsation therapy is an effective method of circulatory support for patients waiting for heart transplantation.

Daily pattern of flight activity of Aedes albifasciatus in Central Argentina

Aedes albifasciatus is an important common mosquito in Central Argentina. Its a confirmed vector of the Western Equine Encephalitis and is responsible for loss of milk production in dairy cattle during peak populations. This paper reports the flight activity pattern of Ae. albifasciatus for different seasons, in the southern coast of the Mar Chiquita Lake (Central Argentina). Data were collected by sampling two sites between 1992 and 1993 with CDC traps and human-bait captures. Adult mosquito population density, estimated by CDC trapping and human-bait, were highly correlated. However, when compared to other species, the proportion of Ae. albifasciatus was higher in human-bait collections. Adult female populations were active only when temperature were higher than 6§C. Two daily biting peaks were observed (dusk and dawn) during the spring, summer and autumn, and only one peak during winter (around 15:00 pm). Adult abundance was significantly correlated (R²= 0.71; p<0.01) with temperature and illumination.

Effects of antifolates - co-trimoxazole and pyrimethamine-sulfadoxine - on gametocytes in children with acute, symptomatic, uncomplicated, Plasmodium falciparum malaria

Antimalarial drugs including the antifolate, pyrimethamine-sulfadoxine (PS), can modulate the prevalence and intensities of gametocytaemia following treatment of acute malaria infections. They may also directly influence the transmission and spread of drug insensitivity. Little is known of the effects of co-trimoxazole (Co-T), another antifolate antimalarial, on gametocytes in children with acute malaria infections. We compared the effects of Co-T and PS on the prevalence and intensities of gametocytaemia and gametocyte sex ratios in 102 children aged 0.5-12 years presenting with acute and uncomplicated falciparum malaria. Compared to pre-treatment, both drugs significantly increased gametocyte carriage post-initiation of treatment. However, gametocyte carriage was significantly lower on day 14 in those treated with Co-T than PS. Significant increase in gametocytaemia with time occurred in PS - but not Co-T-treated children. Kaplan-Meier survival curve of the cumulative probability of remaining gametocyte-free in children who were agametocytaemic at enrolment showed that by day 7 of follow up, children treated with PS had a significantly higher propensity to have developed gametocytes than in Co-T-treated children (Log-rank statistic 5.35, df = 1, P = 0.02). Gametocyte sex ratio changes were similar following treatment with both drugs. PS and Co-T treatment of acute malaria infections in children from this endemic area is associated with significant increases in prevalence and intensities of gametocytaemia but these effects are more marked in those treated with PS than Co-T.

Slow clearance of Plasmodium vivax with chloroquine amongst children younger than six months of age in the Brazilian Amazon

Plasmodium vivax is the most widespread parasite causing malaria, being especially prevalent in the Americas and Southeast Asia. Children are one of the most affected populations, especially in highly endemic areas. However, there are few studies evaluating the therapeutic response of infants with vivax malaria. This study retrospectively evaluated the parasitaemia clearance in children diagnosed with vivax malaria during the first five days of exclusive treatment with chloroquine (CQ). Infants aged less than six months old had a significantly slower parasitaemia clearance time compared to the group of infants and children between six months and 12 years old (Kaplan-Meier survival analysis; Wilcoxon test; p = 0.004). The impaired clearance of parasitaemia in younger children with vivax malaria is shown for the first time in Latin America. It is speculated that CQ pharmacokinetics in young children with vivax malaria is distinct, but this specific population may also allow the detection of CQ-resistant parasites during follow-up, due to the lack of previous immunity.

Indicadores clínicos e pré-hospitalares de sobrevivência no trauma fechado: uma análise multivariada

O objetivo do estudo foi identificar os indicadores clínicos e pré-hospitalares associados à sobrevivência de vítimas de trauma fechado. Foram utilizadas a análise de sobrevivência de Kaplan Meier, e de Riscos Proporcionais de Cox, para analisar a associação de 33 variáveis ao óbito precoce e tardio, propondo modelos multivariados. Os modelos finais até 48h pós-trauma evidenciaram altos coeficientes de risco promovidos pelas lesões abdominais, Injury Severity Score >25, procedimentos respiratórios avançados e compressões torácicas pré-hospitalares. No modelo até 7 dias, a pressão arterial sistólica na cena do acidente, se menor de 75mmHg, foi associada a maior risco de óbito e se ausente, foi associada ao mais elevado risco de óbito após 7 dias. A reposição de volume pré-hospitalar apresentou efeito protetor em todos os períodos. Os resultados sugerem que a magnitude da hipoxemia e da instabilidade hemodinâmica diante da hemorragia, influenciaram de forma significante o óbito precoce e tardio desse grupo de vítimas.

Hospital Amigo da Criança: prevalência de aleitamento materno exclusivo aos seis meses e fatores intervenientes

O objetivo da pesquisa foi identificar o padrão de aleitamento materno exclusivo nos primeiros seis meses de vida de crianças nascidas em um Hospital Amigo da Criança e os fatores que contribuíram para o desmame precoce. Estudo de coorte prospectivo com 261 mães e crianças. Os dados foram avaliados utilizando-se a análise de sobrevivência através da construção da curva de Kaplan-Meier e teste de Log-Rank para a análise univariada. Foi realizada análise multivariada utilizando-se o modelo de Regressão de Cox com riscos proporcionais. Ao longo dos seis meses, o aleitamento materno exclusivo praticado com 30, 90, 120, 150 e 180 dias foi 75%, 52%, 33%, 19% e 5,7%, respectivamente. Na análise multivariada, as variáveis que mostraram risco para o desmame precoce foram a intercorrência mamária hospitalar e, na consulta de retorno, a posição inadequada e a associação das duas anteriores. A Iniciativa Hospital Amigo da Criança favoreceu o aleitamento materno exclusivo.

Urinary incontinence in the prediction of falls in hospitalized elderly

Objective Analyzing the effect of urinary incontinence as a predictor of the incidence of falls among hospitalized elderly. Method Concurrent cohort study where 221 elderly inpatients were followed from the date of admission until discharge, death or fall. The Kaplan-Meier methods, the incidence density and the Cox regression model were used for the survival analysis and the assessment of the association between the exposure variable and the other variables. Results Urinary incontinence was a strong predictor of falls in the surveyed elderly, and was associated with shorter time until the occurrence of event. Urinary incontinence, concomitant with gait and balance dysfunction and use of antipsychotics was associated with falls. Conclusion Measures to prevent the risk of falls specific to hospitalized elderly patients who have urinary incontinence are necessary.



Usage of Calendula officinalis in the prevention and treatment of radiodermatitis: a randomized double-blind controlled clinical trial

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the efficacy of Calendula officinalis in relation to Essential Fatty Acids for the prevention and treatment of radiodermatitis. METHOD This is a randomized double-blind controlled clinical trial with 51 patients with head and neck cancer in radiotherapy treatment divided into two groups: control (27) and experimental (24). RESULTS There is statistically significant evidence (p-value = 0.0120) that the proportion of radiodermatitis grade 2 in Essential Fatty Acids group is higher than Calendula group. Through the Kaplan-Meier survival curve we observed that Essential Fatty Acids group has always remained below the Calendula group survival curve, due to the lower risk of developing radiodermatitis grade 1, which makes the usage of Calendula more effective, with statistical significance (p-value = 0.00402). CONCLUSION Calendula showed better therapeutic response than the Essential Fatty Acids in the prevention and treatment of radiodermatitis. Brazilian Registry of Clinical Trials: RBR-237v4b.

Conception rate of artificially inseminated Holstein cows affected by cloudy vaginal mucus, under intense heat conditions

The objective of this work was to obtain prevalence estimates of cloudy vaginal mucus in artificially inseminated Holstein cows raised under intense heat, in order to assess the effect of meteorological conditions on its occurrence during estrus and to determine its effect on conception rate. In a first study, an association was established between the occurrence of cloudy vaginal mucus during estrus and the conception rate of inseminated cows (18,620 services), raised under intense heat (mean annual temperature of 22°C), at highly technified farms, in the arid region of northern Mexico. In a second study, data from these large dairy operations were used to assess the effect of meteorological conditions throughout the year on the occurrence of cloudy vaginal mucus during artificial insemination (76,899 estruses). The overall rate of estruses with cloudy vaginal mucus was 21.4% (16,470/76,899; 95% confidence interval = 21.1-21.7%). The conception rate of cows with clean vaginal mucus was higher than that of cows with abnormal mucus (30.6 vs. 22%). Prevalence of estruses with cloudy vaginal mucus was strongly dependent on high ambient temperature and markedly higher in May and June. Acceptable conception rates in high milk-yielding Holstein cows can only be obtained with cows showing clear and translucid mucus at artificial insemination.

Tratamento de dados censurados em estudos ambientais

Due to the inherent limitations of the analytical methods of measurement, environmental exposure data often present observations described as below a certain detection limit, also called left-censored data. Censored data directly interferes in almost all types of statistical analyzes, including descriptive parameters, hypothesis testing, confidence intervals, correlations and regressions. In this work, we investigated the performance of the main classes of methods from major publications available in the literature, considering their advantages and limitations. Some criteria for selecting the best method of dealing with censored data are presented.

Benefits of automated acclimatization during the pre-milking phase of lactating girolando cows

The aim of this paper was to evaluate the automated acclimatization effects during pre-milking of cows on thermal conditioning, physiology, milk production and cost-benefit of the automated adiabatic evaporative cooling system (AECS). The treatments 20; 30; 40 min and control consisted of exposure time of pre-milking cows to the automated AECS. Sixteen cows were used with an average daily milk yield of 19 kg, distributed in a 4 x 4 Latin square design. The Tukey's test (P<0.05) was used to compare the means. The environmental variables, dry bulb temperature (DBT, ºC) and relative humidity (RH, %), were recorded every minute, which allowed the determination of the system efficiency through the Temperature and Humidity Index (THI). The respiratory rate (RR), rectal temperature (RT) and temperature of the coat (TC) were measured before and after the acclimatization. The 40 min treatment kept the environmental variables and the comfort indexes within recommended limits. The physiological variables (RR, RT and TC) were lower in the 40 min treatment and reflected positively on milk production, which increased 3.66% compared to the control treatment. The system was profitable, having a 43 days return on investment and a monthly revenue increase of R$ 1,992.67.

Prediction of free-stall occupancy rate in dairycattle barns through fuzzy sets

The goal of this study was to develop a fuzzy model to predict the occupancy rate of free-stalls facilities of dairy cattle, aiding to optimize the design of projects. The following input variables were defined for the development of the fuzzy system: dry bulb temperature (Tdb, °C), wet bulb temperature (Twb, °C) and black globe temperature (Tbg, °C). Based on the input variables, the fuzzy system predicts the occupancy rate (OR, %) of dairy cattle in free-stall barns. For the model validation, data collecting were conducted on the facilities of the Intensive System of Milk Production (SIPL), in the Dairy Cattle National Research Center (CNPGL) of Embrapa. The OR values, estimated by the fuzzy system, presented values of average standard deviation of 3.93%, indicating low rate of errors in the simulation. Simulated and measured results were statistically equal (P>0.05, t Test). After validating the proposed model, the average percentage of correct answers for the simulated data was 89.7%. Therefore, the fuzzy system developed for the occupancy rate prediction of free-stalls facilities for dairy cattle allowed a realistic prediction of stalls occupancy rate, allowing the planning and design of free-stall barns.

Thermal efficiency of individual shelters for girolando calves in brazilian semi-arid regions

ABSTRACT The objective of this research was to evaluate the thermal efficiency of roofs used on individual shelters during milk-feeding stage of Girolando calves. The research was conducted at a farm located in a dry region of Pernambuco state, Brazil. The experimental design was completely randomized, with 27 Holstein × Gir dairy crossbred calves housed in shelters with three roofing materials (fibre cement tile, recycled tile, and thatched roofs). The recycled tiles and thatched roofs provided reductions of 18.7 and 14.6% in radiant thermal load, respectively. Regardless the roofing material, all animals increased their respiratory rate to maintain thermal equilibrium.