77 resultados para probability of error


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ABSTRACT Considering the importance of the substrate to bedding in the poultry industry in Brazil, and the enormous pressure on environmental management as to the correct use and management of the waste generated by the production sector, this study aimed to analyze the effect of reuses of two types of litter on sanitary qualities and productive performance of broilers. The study was conducted with litter from 32 different broiler houses, two types of substrates and four cycles of reuses. The litter sanitary quality was verified by the identification of the presence of Escherichia coli and Salmonellaspp. and the incidence of footpad dermatitis. It was observed that the coffee hulls litter presented a reduction of 28.61 percentage points in the probability of occurrence of Salmonella spp when compared to the wood shavings litter, nevertheless, no statistical difference was observed on bacterial occurrence with Salmonella spp. for litter of different types or numbers of reutilization. The presence of Escherichia coli was detected in litter of all cycles, for both types of substrate. The occurrence of footpad lesions was detected for both types of litter, and was influenced by the number of reutilization cycles of the litter. The degree of incidence was detected only for the litter with coffee hull in which there was an increase of 30% between the first and second reuse from which tended to stabilize.

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PURPOSE:Pregnant women have a 2-3 fold higher probability of developing restless legs syndrome (RLS – sleep-related movement disorders) than general population. This study aims to evaluate the behavior and locomotion of rats during pregnancy in order to verify if part of these animals exhibit some RLS-like features.METHODS:We used 14 female 80-day-old Wistar rats that weighed between 200 and 250 g. The rats were distributed into control (CTRL) and pregnant (PN) groups. After a baseline evaluation of their behavior and locomotor activity in an open-field environment, the PN group was inducted into pregnancy, and their behavior and locomotor activity were evaluated on days 3, 10 and 19 of pregnancy and in the post-lactation period in parallel with the CTRL group. The serum iron and transferrin levels in the CTRL and PN groups were analyzed in blood collected after euthanasia by decapitation.RESULTS:There were no significant differences in the total ambulation, grooming events, fecal boli or urine pools between the CTRL and PN groups. However, the PN group exhibited fewer rearing events, increased grooming time and reduced immobilization time than the CTRL group (ANOVA, p<0.05).CONCLUSION:These results suggest that pregnant rats show behavioral and locomotor alterations similar to those observed in animal models of RLS, demonstrating to be a possible animal model of this sleep disorder.

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PURPOSE: To estimate the likelihood of axillary lymph node involvement for patients with early-stage breast cancer, based on a variety of clinical and pathological factors. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was done in hospital databases from 1999 to 2007. Two hundred thirty-nine patients were diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer. Predictive factors, such as patient age, tumor size, lymphovascular invasion, histological grade and immunohistochemical subtype were analyzed to identify variables that may be associated with axillary lymph node metastasis. RESULTS: Patients with tumors that are negative for estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, and HER2 had approximately a 90% lower chance of developing lymph node metastasis than those with luminal A tumors (e.g., ER+ and/or PR+ and HER2-) - Odds Ratio: 0.11; 95% confidence interval: 0.01-0.88; p=0.01. Furthermore, the risk for lymph node metastasis of luminal A tumors seemed to decrease as patient age increased, and it was directly correlated with tumor size. CONCLUSION: The molecular classification of early-stage breast cancer using immunohistochemistry may help predicting the probability of developing axillary lymph node metastasis. Further studies are needed to optimize predictions for nodal involvement, with the aim of aiding the decision-making process for breast cancer treatment.

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Objective To compare the diagnostic accuracy of the classic Meisels cytologic criteria and the Schneider secondary criteria relative to the hybrid capture method for diagnosing HPV infection. Methods This was a retrospective study performed at a public university hospital. A total of 41 patients with a cytologic diagnosis of HPV infection and 40 HPV-negative patients were selected for review of the cervical-vaginal smears seeking to classical and secondary criteria. A single pathologist reviewed the slides in search of the criteria. The classical and secondary cytologic criteria were compared with the hybrid capture for diagnosing HPV infection. Bartleti test was applied for the age analysis, and Fisher's exact test was used to compare proportions. The tests were considered significant when the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis was less than 5% (p < 0.05). Results The Meisels criteria were less sensitive (34.0%) than the secondary Schneider criteria (57.5%) when compared with the hybrid capture (p < 0.0001), although the specificity of the former criteria was non-significantly higher (91.2% and 67.7%, respectively). In cases of moderate or intense inflammation, the sensitivity and specificity of the Schneider criteria were decreased, 33.3% and 50.0% respectively (p = 0.0115). Conclusions Compared with hybrid capture for diagnosis of HPV infection, the sensitivity of the secondary Schneider criteria was higher than the classical Meisels criteria.Moderate or intense inflammation reduces the sensitivity and specificity of the secondary Schneider criteria for diagnosing HPV infection using the hybrid capture as the gold standard.

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Trypanosoma vivax outbreaks in beef cattle in the Pantanal region of Mato Grosso do Sul state, Brazil, causes relevant economical impact due to weight loss, abortion and mortality. Cattle moved from the Pantanal to adjacent areas of this ecosystem for breeding and fattening is a common feature. Therefore an epidemiological study on breeding cows in the transition area between Pantanal lowland and adjacent highlands of Mato Grosso do Sul was performed to determine the T. vivax infection dynamics and outbreak risk. Three experimental groups were formed: Group 1 consisted of cows parasitologically negative by the Woo test and in the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for T. vivax antibody detection (Tv-ELISA-Ab); Group 2 parasitologically negative and positive in the Tv-ELISA-Ab; and in Group 3 cows were parasitologically positive and with positive reactions in the Tv-ELISA-Ab. During 24 months, the cows' dislodgment between the above established groups was monitored by Woo test and Tv-ELISA-Ab exams. The tabanid population was also monitored and the highest number occurred during the rainy season. Although parasitemias were detected only in the first four samplings of the experimental period, the cows could be considered as trypanotolerant, because no clinical signs were observed. Despite the higher T. vivax incidence during the dry season, no disease symptoms were seen. Even though T. vivax epidemiological situation in the herd was characterized as endemic with seasonal variation, the probability of outbreaks was null within the conditions of the study.

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From a cross-sectional observational study with convenience samples, 347 blood samples from horses were collected from different physiographic regions, as follows: Santa Catarina Plateau (Santa Catarina State - SC), Médio Paraíba do Sul (São Paulo State - SP and Rio de Janeiro State RJ), Mountainous and Metropolitan regions (Rio de Janeiro State - RJ). Samples were tested for the presence of antibodies (IgG) anti Neorickettsia risticii by indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA). The frequency obtained in this study corroborates with the ones obtained in the U.S.A., which refers to endemic regions. Fisher's exact test showed significant differences in the number of positive animals between regions, indicating that the probability of an animal becoming infected varies depending on the area. The CI 95% revealed no association between infection and geopolitical space. Moreover, Odds ratio test showed differences of an animal getting infected in different regions. This event could be influenced by the type of treatment used in each area, as the seasonal frequency of injury or even potential vectors. Therefore, there are seropositive animals for N. risticii in the studied areas, suggesting that this agent may be circulating in those regions. Future studies mainly based on molecular analyzes are needed to confirm these serological findings.

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AbstractMycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) can infect ruminants and remain subclinical for long periods within herds. The identification of organs that are more susceptible to infection and the evaluation of cytokine expression at the site of infection are important to understand the pathogenesis of MAP. In this study, the probability of detection of MAP-DNA and the expression of cytokines in organs of C57BL/6 mice infected intraperitoneally for 120 days were evaluated. Among the evaluated organs, the spleen (85%), colon (75%) and liver (60%) had the highest frequency of positivity. When compared these frequencies between organs, it has been found that the spleen had 1.54 times as likely to be positive in relation to the ileum, and 2.0 times more likely in relation to the Peyer's patches. In addition, at 60 days post-infection, the spleen and the liver were responsible for upregulation of IFN-γ , and the ileum by TNF-α and IL-4. The results indicate that the spleen is the best organ for evaluating an experimental infection by MAP, especially in the initial stages of the infection. Moreover, it showed that the spleen, liver and ileum have a direct role in the inflammatory response in experimental models.

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This paper describes a mathematical and graphical model for face aging. It considers the possibility of predicting the aging process by offering an initial quantification of this process as it applies to the face. It is concerned with physical measurements and a general law of time dependence. After measuring and normalizing a photograph of a person, one could predict, with a known amount of error, the appearance of that person at a different age. The technique described has served its purpose successfully, with a representative amount of patient data behaving sufficiently near the general aging curve of each parameter. That model uses a warping technique to emulate the aging changes on the face of women. Frequently the warping methods are based on the interpolation between images or general mathematical functions to calculate the pixel attributes. The implemented process considers the age features of selected parts of a face such as the face outline and the shape of the lips. These age features were obtained by measuring the facial regions of women that have been photographed throughout their lives. The present work is first concerned with discussing a methodology to define the aging parameters that can be measured, and second with representing the age effects graphically.

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Experiments were conducted in 2010 to determine the influence of plant density and seed position on the mother plant on seed physiological characteristics of cocklebur (Xanthium strumarium). Cocklebur burs were collected in fall of 2010 from Research Farm of University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources of Gorgan, Iran. The experiment was established as factorial arrangement using a completely randomized design with three replications. The factors included different densities of cocklebur (0, 2, 4, 6 and 8 plant m-2) and the top and bottom parts of the canopy. Non dormant seeds were used for determining cardinal temperatures and tolerance to salinity and drought stresses. Base, optimum and ceiling germination temperatures were estimated between 7.09 to 12.33, 32 to 35 and 44 to 45 respectively in different treatments. Salinity stress up to 300 Mm and osmotic potential 8 bar inhibited the germination completely. Comparison of base temperatures and sigmoid equation coefficients showed that seeds produced in the top had higher germination than those that produced at the bottom of the mother plant. It seems plant densities through seed position on the mother plant affect seed quality. Likewise changes of light quality and quantity in shade environment increased seed dormancy in matured seeds. Shade environment affect seed germination on mother plant that increased dormancy of seeds maturing under shade be an adaptive response that reduces the probability of germination of offspring under unfavorable (shade, competitive) conditions.

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The use of the flow vs time relationship obtained with the nasal prongs of the AutoSetä (AS) system (diagnosis mode) has been proposed to detect apneas and hypopneas in patients with reasonable nasal patency. Our aim was to compare the accuracy of AS to that of a computerized polysomnographic (PSG) system. The study was conducted on 56 individuals (45 men) with clinical characteristics of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). Their mean (± SD) age was 44.6 ± 12 years and their body mass index was 31.3 ± 7 kg/m2. Data were submitted to parametric analysis to determine the agreement between methods and the intraclass correlation coefficient was calculated. The Student t-test and Bland and Altman plots were also used. Twelve patients had an apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) <10 in bed and 20 had values >40. The mean (± SD) AHI PSG index of 37.6 (28.8) was significantly lower (P = 0.0003) than AHI AS (41.8 (25.3)), but there was a high intraclass correlation coefficient (0.93), with 0.016 variance. For a threshold of AHI of 20, AS showed 73.0% accuracy, 97% sensitivity and 60% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 78% and 93%, respectively. Sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive values increased in parallel to the increase in AHI threshold for detecting OSA. However, when the differences of AHI PSG-AS were plotted against their means, the limits of agreement between the methods (95% of the differences) were +13 and -22, showing the discrepancy between the AHI values obtained with PSG and AS. Finally, cubic regression analysis was used to better predict the result of AHI PSG as a function of the method proposed, i.e., AHI AS. We conclude that, despite these differences, AHI measured by AutoSetä can be useful for the assessment of patients with high pre-test clinical probability of OSA, for whom standard PSG is not possible as an initial step in diagnosis.

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The objective of the present study was to determine the possible prognostic factors which may explain the difference in the survival of patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) with and without meconium ileus. Over a period of 20 years, 127 patients with CF, whose diagnosis was confirmed by typical clinical characteristics and altered sweat chloride levels, were studied retrospectively. The patients were divided into two groups: group 1 consisted of patients who presented CF and meconium ileus (N = 9), and group 2 consisted of patients with CF without meconium ileus (N = 118). The characteristics studied were based on data obtained upon admission of the patients using a specific protocol. Demographic, clinical, nutritional and laboratory data were obtained. The genotype was determined in 106 patients by PCR. Survival was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. The median follow-up period was 44 months. A statistically significant difference was observed between the groups studied regarding the following variables: age at diagnosis and weight and height z scores. The presence of meconium ileus was associated with an earlier diagnosis; these patients had greater deficits in height and weight at the time of diagnosis and at the end of the study. The estimated probability of survival for patients with CF without meconium ileus was 62 ± 14% and for those with meconium ileus 32 ± 18%. Patients with CF and meconium ileus presented a poor nutritional status at diagnosis and a lower survival rate compared to the general CF population.

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The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the mixed lymphocyte culture as a predictive assay of acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). We studied 153 patients who received a first bone marrow transplantation from human leukocyte antigen-identical siblings. Acute GVHD was observed in 26 of 128 (20.3%) patients evaluated and chronic GVHD occurred in 60 of 114 (52.6%). One-way mixed lymphocyte culture (MLC) assays were performed by the standard method. MLC results are reported as the relative response (RR) from donor against patient cells. The responses ranged from -47.0 to 40.7%, with a median of 0.5%. The Kaplan-Meier probability of developing GVHD was determined for patients with positive and negative MLC. There was no significant difference in incidence of acute GVHD between the groups studied. However, the incidence of chronic GVHD was higher in recipients with RR >4.5% than in those with RR <=4.5%. The Cox Proportional Hazards model was used to examine the effect of MLC levels on incidence of chronic GVHD, while adjusting for the potential confounding effect of others suspected or observed risk factors. The relative risk of chronic GVHD was 2.5 for patients with positive MLC (RR >4.5%), 2.9 for those who received peripheral blood progenitor cells as a graft, and 2.2 for patients who developed previous acute GVHD. MLC was not useful for predicting acute GVHD, but MLC with RR >4.5% associated with other risk factors could predict the development of chronic GVHD, being of help for the prevention and/or treatment of this late complication.

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The human androgen receptor (AR) gene promoter lies in a GC-rich region containing two principal sites of transcription initiation and a putative Sp1 protein-binding site, without typical "TATA" and "CAAT" boxes. It has been suggested that mutations within the 5'untranslated region (5'UTR) may contribute to the development of prostate cancer by changing the rates of gene transcription and/or translation. In order to investigate this question, the aim of the present study was to search for the presence of mutations or polymorphisms at the AR-5'UTR in 92 prostate cancer patients, where histological diagnosis of adenocarcinoma was established in specimens obtained from transurethral resection or after prostatectomy. The AR-5'UTR was amplified by PCR from genomic DNA samples of the patients and of 100 healthy male blood donors, included as controls. Conformation-sensitive gel electrophoresis was used for DNA sequence alteration screening. Only one band shift was detected in one individual from the blood donor group. Sequencing revealed a new single nucleotide deletion (T) in the most conserved portion of the promoter region at position +36 downstream from the transcription initiation site I. Although the effect of this specific mutation remains unknown, its rarity reveals the high degree of sequence conservation of the human androgen promoter region. Moreover, the absence of detectable variation within the critical 5'UTR in prostate cancer patients indicates a low probability of its involvement in prostate cancer etiology.

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The prevalent rate of psychiatry morbidity amongst patients with cancer reported in various studies ranges from 5 to 50%, a variation that can be attributed to differences in sample size, the disease itself and treatment factors. The objectives of the present study were to determine the frequency of psychiatric morbidity amongst recently diagnosed cancer outpatients and try to identify which factors might be related to further psychological distress. Two hundred and eleven (70.9%) female patients and 87 (29.1%) male patients from the chemotherapy unit of the Cancer Hospital A.C. Camargo (São Paulo) completed a questionnaire that featured data on demographic, medical and treatment details. The Self Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20) was administered to the patients to determine their personal psychiatric morbidity. Seventy-two patients (25.8%) scored > or = 8 in the SRQ-20, the cut-off point for a patient to be considered a psychiatric case. When the low and high scoring groups were compared no differences were detected regarding age, marital status, tumor site, sex, or previous treatment. Nonetheless, patients in the lowest social class and those who were bedridden less than 50% of the time had a significantly higher probability of being a psychiatric case. Regarding help-seeking behavior in situations in which they had doubts or were frightened, about 64% of the total sample did not seek any type of support and did not talk to anyone. This frequency of psychiatric morbidity agrees with data from the cancer literature. According to many investigators, the early detection of a comorbid psychiatric disorder is crucial to relieve a patient's suffering.

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CDKN2A has been implicated as a melanoma susceptibility gene in some kindreds with a family history of this disease. Mutations in CDKN2A may produce an imbalance between functional p16ink4a and cyclin D causing abnormal cell growth. We searched for germline mutations in this gene in 22 patients with clinical criteria of hereditary cancer (early onset, presence of multiple primary melanoma or 1 or more first- or second-degree relatives affected) by secondary structural content prediction, a mutation scanning method that relies on the propensity for single-strand DNA to take on a three-dimensional structure that is highly sequence dependent, and sequencing the samples with alterations in the electrophoretic mobility. The prevalence of CDKN2A mutation in our study was 4.5% (1/22) and there was a correlation between family history and probability of mutation detection. We found the P48T mutation in 1 patient with 2 melanoma-affected relatives. The patient descends from Italian families and this mutation has been reported previously only in Italian families in two independent studies. This leads us to suggest the presence of a mutational "hotspot" within this gene or a founder mutation. We also detected a high prevalence (59.1%) of polymorphisms, mainly alleles 500 C/G (7/31.8%) or 540 C/T (6/27.3%), in the 3' untranslated region of exon 3. This result reinforces the idea that these rare polymorphic alleles have been significantly associated with the risk of developing melanoma.