States and Economic Development

Today the Washington Consensus on development lies in tatters. The recent history of the developing world has been unkind to the core claim that a nation that opens its economy and keeps government's role to a minimum invariably experiences rapid economic growth. The evidence against this claim is strong: the developing world as a whole grew faster during the era of state intervention and import substitution (1950-1980) than in the more recent era of structural adjustment (1990-2005); and the recent economic performance of both Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africaregions that truly embraced neoliberalismhas lagged well behind that of many Asian economies, which have instead pursued judicial and unorthodox combinations of state intervention and economic openness. As scholars and policy makers reconstruct alternatives to the Washington Consensus on development, it is important to underline that prudent and effective state intervention and selective integration with the global economy have been responsible for development success in the past; they are also likely to remain the recipes for upward mobility in the global economy in the future."

A note on inflation targeting and economic growth in Brazil

This paper analyzes the relation between monetary policy and economic performance in Brazil during the period 1999-2006. In particular, it discusses the growth effects of the inflation targeting regime through its effects on aggregate demand. It is argued that monetary policy under IT reacts in a procyclical and asymmetric way to fluctuations in economic activity (too "tight" during recessions, not so "loose" during expansions). Such pattern may generate a downward bias in aggregate demand, with negative real effects on output growth and employment. Our results suggest that monetary policy has been procyclical and asymmetrical in Brazil under inflation targeting. The main economic policy implication of this study is that central banks should consider more seriously the real effects of monetary policy on output and employment.

Tariff discrimination on Brazil's soluble coffee: an economic analysis

This article evaluates the impacts of the imposition of tariffs on the Brazilian soluble coffee mainly by European countries as of the 1990s. More particularly, it verifies whether the imposition of discriminatory trade tariffs by the European Union and of non-discriminatory ones by some Eastern European countries reflects on the international demand for this commodity. For this purpose, dynamic models of global demand for Brazilian soluble coffee were estimated for the 1995-2003 period using data from the International Coffee Organization. Findings suggest that existing tariffs significantly account for the reduction of Brazilian share of soluble in the world market.

The effects of the global economic crisis in Latin America

The aim of this article is to analyze the current phase of the global crisis and the way it has manifested itself in Latin America. The global crisis is the most important capitalist crisis since World War II. It is a new type of debt-deflation crisis, highlighting the limits of the finance-dominated regime of accumulation and characterized by securitization. Latin American countries have not been immune to the global crisis. Since it sets limits on globalization, the impossibility of maintaining export-driven accumulation sustained by restrictive monetary and fiscal policies becomes clear. This time, there will be no way out in external markets for any country. That fact will force them to restructure productive systems and search for a way out in domestic markets and in regional spaces for integration.

Brazil as an emerging economy: a new economic miracle?

This article shows that abundant resources and blind faith in an optimistic future cannot result in sustainable growth in Brazil. There are great deficiencies in various areas which make sustained high growth rates almost impossible to achieve, such as the low investment ratio, deficiencies in creating human capital, high interest rates leading to an uncompetitive exchange rate and a lack of infrastructural development.

Trade with China and strategy in South American recent economic development

Trade between South America and China has been an important source of the high growth shown by those economies in the 2000s. During the globalization of the 1990s, trade between the region and China had not developed so much. A rather sharp growth in China's presence in world trade since the beginning of the 2000s changed the world trade trends for MERCOSUR countries, or, at least, for many of them. The impact of the increasing trade of agrifood has been very relevant, and different per country. Strategy is another important issue, referring to bilateral relations with China. This country should be seen as a partner in the global trade, and not as a new foreign investor for the region, but this may be different in the context of different national strategies of South American countries.

Germany's socio-economic model and the Euro crisis

Germany's socio-economic model, the "social market economy", was established in West Germany after World War II and extended to the unified Germany in 1990. During a prolonged recession after the adoption of the Euro in 1998, major reforms (Agenda 2010) were introduced which many consider as the key of Germany's recent success. The reforms had mixed results: employment increased but has consisted to a large extent of precarious low-wage jobs. Growth depended on export surpluses based on an internal real devaluation (low unit labour costs) which make Germany vulnerable to global recessions as in 2009. Overall inequality increased substantially.

Valores-trabalho, preços de reprodução e renda da terra

Labor values, reproduction prices and land rent. The paper analyses the determination of labor values and reproduction prices, including economic systems with joint production and systems with intensive land rent. The discussion is based on very simple numeric examples, avoiding that the mathematical complications hinder the comprehension of basic questions of Marxist economic theory.

Brazil: an economy caught in a financial trap (1993-2003)

In the early 1990s, Brazil entered a financialized economic dynamic in which short-term financial valorization generated by the issuing of guaranteed public debt overshadowed the entire economy. This article analyzes Brazilian economic processes between 1993 and 2003, in particular the bi-directional relationship with external vulnerability, erratic international financing behavior and how State actions to obtain and maintain these resources fostered financialization. As a result, the entire economy became enmeshed in a self-perpetuating trap in which financial activity was predominant over economic activity.

Economic growth, labor and productivity in Brazil and the United States: a comparative analysis

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relation between economic growth and labor market dynamics in Brazil between 1981 and 2009, making a comparison with the United States. Among the findings, one can mention that economic growth in Brazil has been related to a massive incorporation of labor force in labor intensive activities, whereas, in the United States, to a substantial improvement of labor productivity in high-technology activities. Despite the favorable economic context in the 2000s, huge inequalities between these countries have widened since the structure of the Brazilian labor market remained with few or no changes.

Effects of overvaluation and exchange rate volatility over industrial investment: empirical evidence and economic policy proposals for Brazil

The present article aims to analyze the recent behavior of real exchange rate in Brazil and its effects over investment per worker in Brazilian manufacturing and extractive industry. Preliminary estimates presented in the article shows an over-valuation of 48% of real exchange rate in Brazil. The reaction between the level (and volatility) of real exchange rate and investment (per worker) in Brazil is analyzed by means of a panel data econometric model for 30 sectors of Brazilian manufacturing and extractive industry. The empirical results show that the level and volatility of real exchange rate has a strong effect over investment per worker in Brazilian industry. Finally, we conclude the article presenting a proposal for a new macroeconomic regime that aims to produce an acceleration of economic growth of Brazilian economy and, by that, a catching-up process with developed countries.

Economic stagnation in the United States: underlying causes and global consequences

This paper analyzes the causes of the slow recovery of the US economy since the financial crisis and Great Recession of 2008-9. Fallen house values and excessive household debts continue to depress consumer spending, while corporations are failing to invest in spite of record profits. The increasingly unequal distribution of income limits demand, while long-term structural transformations continue to erode employment creation. An expansionary monetary policy has been incapable of sparking a more robust recovery and fiscal policy has been shifted to an austerity stance. In this context, Brazil and other emerging market nations cannot count on the United States to continue to be the leading source of global demand as it was in previous decades.