Age, Creatinine and Ejection Fraction Score in Brazil: Comparison with InsCor and the EuroSCORE

AbstractBackground:Risk scores for cardiac surgery cannot continue to be neglected.Objective:To assess the performance of “Age, Creatinine and Ejection Fraction Score” (ACEF Score) to predict mortality in patients submitted to elective coronary artery bypass graft and/or heart valve surgery, and to compare it to other scores.Methods:A prospective cohort study was carried out with the database of a Brazilian tertiary care center. A total of 2,565 patients submitted to elective surgeries between May 2007 and July 2009 were assessed. For a more detailed analysis, the ACEF Score performance was compared to the InsCor’s and EuroSCORE’s performance through correlation, calibration and discrimination tests.Results:Patients were stratified into mild, moderate and severe for all models. Calibration was inadequate for ACEF Score (p = 0.046) and adequate for InsCor (p = 0.460) and EuroSCORE (p = 0.750). As for discrimination, the area under the ROC curve was questionable for the ACEF Score (0.625) and adequate for InsCor (0.744) and EuroSCORE (0.763).Conclusion:Although simple to use and practical, the ACEF Score, unlike InsCor and EuroSCORE, was not accurate for predicting mortality in patients submitted to elective coronary artery bypass graft and/or heart valve surgery in a Brazilian tertiary care center. (Arq Bras Cardiol. 2015; [online].ahead print, PP.0-0)

Incidence and Predictors of Cardiovascular Complications and Death after Vascular Surgery

AbstractBackground:Patients undergoing arterial vascular surgery are considered at increased risk for post-operative complications.Objective:To assess the incidence and predictors of complications and death, as well as the performance of two models of risk stratification, in vascular surgery.Methods:This study determined the incidence of cardiovascular complications and deaths within 30 days from surgery in adults. Univariate comparison and logistic regression assessed the risk factors associated with the outcomes, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve assessed the discriminatory capacity of the revised cardiac risk index (RCRI) and vascular study group of New England cardiac risk index (VSG-CRI).Results:141 patients (mean age, 66 years; 65% men) underwent the following surgeries: carotid (15); lower limbs (65); abdominal aorta (56); and others (5). Cardiovascular complications and death occurred within 30 days in 28 (19.9%) and 20 (14.2%) patients, respectively. The risk predictors were: age, obesity, stroke, poor functional capacity, altered scintigraphy, surgery of the aorta, and troponin change. The scores RCRI and VSG-CRI had area under the curve of 0.635 and 0.639 for early cardiovascular complications, and 0.562 and 0.610 for death in 30 days.Conclusion:In this small and selected group of patients undergoing arterial vascular surgery, the incidence of adverse events was elevated. The risk assessment indices RCRI and VSG-CRI did not perform well for complications within 30 days.

Echocardiographic Predictors of Worse Outcome After Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy

Abstract Background: Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) is the recommended treatment by leading global guidelines. However, 30%-40% of selected patients are non-responders. Objective: To develop an echocardiographic model to predict cardiac death or transplantation (Tx) 1 year after CRT. Method: Observational, prospective study, with the inclusion of 116 patients, aged 64.89 ± 11.18 years, 69.8% male, 68,1% in NYHA FC III and 31,9% in FC IV, 71.55% with left bundle-branch block, and median ejection fraction (EF) of 29%. Evaluations were made in the pre‑implantation period and 6-12 months after that, and correlated with cardiac mortality/Tx at the end of follow-up. Cox and logistic regression analyses were performed with ROC and Kaplan-Meier curves. The model was internally validated by bootstrapping. Results: There were 29 (25%) deaths/Tx during follow-up of 34.09 ± 17.9 months. Cardiac mortality/Tx was 16.3%. In the multivariate Cox model, EF < 30%, grade III/IV diastolic dysfunction and grade III mitral regurgitation at 6‑12 months were independently related to increased cardiac mortality or Tx, with hazard ratios of 3.1, 4.63 and 7.11, respectively. The area under the ROC curve was 0.78. Conclusion: EF lower than 30%, severe diastolic dysfunction and severe mitral regurgitation indicate poor prognosis 1 year after CRT. The combination of two of those variables indicate the need for other treatment options.

Very Long-Term Prognostic Role of Admission BNP in Non-ST Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome

Abstract Background: BNP has been extensively evaluated to determine short- and intermediate-term prognosis in patients with acute coronary syndrome, but its role in long-term mortality is not known. Objective: To determine the very long-term prognostic role of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) for all-cause mortality in patients with non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTEACS). Methods: A cohort of 224 consecutive patients with NSTEACS, prospectively seen in the Emergency Department, had BNP measured on arrival to establish prognosis, and underwent a median 9.34-year follow-up for all-cause mortality. Results: Unstable angina was diagnosed in 52.2%, and non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction, in 47.8%. Median admission BNP was 81.9 pg/mL (IQ range = 22.2; 225) and mortality rate was correlated with increasing BNP quartiles: 14.3; 16.1; 48.2; and 73.2% (p < 0.0001). ROC curve disclosed 100 pg/mL as the best BNP cut-off value for mortality prediction (area under the curve = 0.789, 95% CI= 0.723-0.854), being a strong predictor of late mortality: BNP < 100 = 17.3% vs. BNP ≥ 100 = 65.0%, RR = 3.76 (95% CI = 2.49-5.63, p < 0.001). On logistic regression analysis, age >72 years (OR = 3.79, 95% CI = 1.62-8.86, p = 0.002), BNP ≥ 100 pg/mL (OR = 6.24, 95% CI = 2.95-13.23, p < 0.001) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (OR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.97-0.99, p = 0.049) were independent late-mortality predictors. Conclusions: BNP measured at hospital admission in patients with NSTEACS is a strong, independent predictor of very long-term all-cause mortality. This study allows raising the hypothesis that BNP should be measured in all patients with NSTEACS at the index event for long-term risk stratification.

Prognostic Value of Pulmonary Vascular Resistance by Magnetic Resonance in Systolic Heart Failure

Abstract Background: Pulmonary hypertension is associated with poor prognosis in heart failure. However, non-invasive diagnosis is still challenging in clinical practice. Objective: We sought to assess the prognostic utility of non-invasive estimation of pulmonary vascular resistances (PVR) by cardiovascular magnetic resonance to predict adverse cardiovascular outcomes in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Methods: Prospective registry of patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < 40% and recently admitted for decompensated heart failure during three years. PVRwere calculated based on right ventricular ejection fraction and average velocity of the pulmonary artery estimated during cardiac magnetic resonance. Readmission for heart failure and all-cause mortality were considered as adverse events at follow-up. Results: 105 patients (average LVEF 26.0 ±7.7%, ischemic etiology 43%) were included. Patients with adverse events at long-term follow-up had higher values of PVR (6.93 ± 1.9 vs. 4.6 ± 1.7estimated Wood Units (eWu), p < 0.001). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, PVR ≥ 5 eWu(cutoff value according to ROC curve) was independently associated with increased risk of adverse events at 9 months follow-up (HR2.98; 95% CI 1.12-7.88; p < 0.03). Conclusions: In patients with HFrEF, the presence of PVR ≥ 5.0 Wu is associated with significantly worse clinical outcome at follow-up. Non-invasive estimation of PVR by cardiac magnetic resonance might be useful for risk stratification in HFrEF, irrespective of etiology, presence of late gadolinium enhancement or LVEF.

Potential Utility of the SYNTAX Score 2 in Patients Undergoing Left Main Angioplasty

Abstract Background: The revascularization strategy of the left main disease is determinant for clinical outcomes. Objective: We sought to 1) validate and compare the performance of the SYNTAX Score 1 and 2 for predicting major cardiovascular events at 4 years in patients who underwent unprotected left main angioplasty and 2) evaluate the long-term outcome according to the SYNTAX score 2-recommended revascularization strategy. Methods: We retrospectively studied 132 patients from a single-centre registry who underwent unprotected left main angioplasty between March 1999 and December 2010. Discrimination and calibration of both models were assessed by ROC curve analysis, calibration curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results: Total event rate was 26.5% at 4 years.The AUC for the SYNTAX Score 1 and SYNTAX Score 2 for percutaneous coronary intervention, was 0.61 (95% CI: 0.49-0.73) and 0.67 (95% CI: 0.57-0.78), respectively. Despite a good overall adjustment for both models, the SYNTAX Score 2 tended to underpredict risk. In the 47 patients (36%) who should have undergone surgery according to the SYNTAX Score 2, event rate was numerically higher (30% vs. 25%; p=0.54), and for those with a higher difference between the two SYNTAX Score 2 scores (Percutaneous coronary intervention vs. Coronary artery by-pass graft risk estimation greater than 5.7%), event rate was almost double (40% vs. 22%; p=0.2). Conclusion: The SYNTAX Score 2 may allow a better and individualized risk stratification of patients who need revascularization of an unprotected left main coronary artery. Prospective studies are needed for further validation.

Serial High-Sensitivity Troponin T in Post-Primary Angioplasty Exercise Test

Abstract Background: The kinetics of high-sensitivity troponin T (hscTnT) release should be studied in different situations, including functional tests with transient ischemic abnormalities. Objective: To evaluate the release of hscTnT by serial measurements after exercise testing (ET), and to correlate hscTnT elevations with abnormalities suggestive of ischemia. Methods: Patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary angioplasty were referred for ET 3 months after infarction. Blood samples were collected to measure basal hscTnT immediately before (TnT0h), 2 (TnT2h), 5 (TnT5h), and 8 hours (TnT8h) after ET. The outcomes were peak hscTnT, TnT5h/TnT0h ratio, and the area under the blood concentration-time curve (AUC) for hscTnT levels. Log-transformation was performed on hscTnT values, and comparisons were assessed with the geometric mean ratio, along with their 95% confidence intervals. Statistical significance was assessed by analysis of covariance with no adjustment, and then, adjusted for TnT0h, age and sex, followed by additional variables (metabolic equivalents, maximum heart rate achieved, anterior wall STEMI, and creatinine clearance). Results: This study included 95 patients. The highest geometric means were observed at 5 hours (TnT5h). After adjustments, peak hscTnT, TnT5h/TnT0h and AUC were 59% (p = 0.002), 59% (p = 0.003) and 45% (p = 0.003) higher, respectively, in patients with an abnormal ET as compared to those with normal tests. Conclusion: Higher elevations of hscTnT may occur after an abnormal ET as compared to a normal ET in patients with STEMI.

Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring: Five Decades of More Light and Less Shadows

Abstract Casual blood pressure measurements have been extensively questioned over the last five decades. A significant percentage of patients have different blood pressure readings when examined in the office or outside it. For this reason, a change in the paradigm of the best manner to assess blood pressure has been observed. The method that has been most widely used is the Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring - ABPM. The method allows recording blood pressure measures in 24 hours and evaluating various parameters such as mean BP, pressure loads, areas under the curve, variations between daytime and nighttime, pulse pressure variability etc. Blood pressure measurements obtained by ABPM are better correlated, for example, with the risks of hypertension. The main indications for ABPM are: suspected white coat hypertension and masked hypertension, evaluation of the efficacy of the antihypertensive therapy in 24 hours, and evaluation of symptoms. There is increasing evidence that the use of ABPM has contributed to the assessment of blood pressure behaviors, establishment of diagnoses, prognosis and the efficacy of antihypertensive therapy. There is no doubt that the study of 24-hour blood pressure behavior and its variations by ABPM has brought more light and less darkness to the field, which justifies the title of this review.

A absorção de nitrogênio, fósforo, potássio, cálcio, magnésio, enxôfre e silício pela cana de açúcar, Co 419, e o seu crescimento em função da idade

This paper describes the data obtained for the growth of sugar cane, Variety Co 419, and the amount and rate of absorption of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, magnesium, sulfur, and silicon, according to the age of the plant, in the soil and climate conditions of the state of S. Paulo, Brazil. An experiment was installed in the Estação Experimental de Cana de Açúcar "Dr. José Vizioli", at Piracicaba, state of S. Paulo, Brazil, and the soil "tèrra-roxa misturada" presented the following composition: Sand (more than 0,2 mm)........................................................................ 8.40 % Fine sand (from 0,2 to less than 0,02 mm)................................................. 24.90 % Silt (from 0,02 to less than 0,002 mm)...................................................... 16.40 % Clay (form 0,002 mm and less)................................................................ 50.20 % pH 10 g of soil and 25 ml of distilled water)..................................................... 5.20 %C (g of carbon per 100 g of soil)................................................................. 1.00 %N (g of nitrogen per 100 g of soil)............................................................... 0.15 P0(4)-³ (me. per 100 g of soil, soluble in 0,05 normal H2SO4) ............................... 0.06 K+ (exchangeable, me. per 100 g of soil)....... 0.18 Ca+² (exchangeable, me. per 100 g of soil)...... 2.00 Mg+² (exchangeable, me. per 100 g of soil)...... 0.66 The monthly rainfall and mean temperature from January 1956 to August 1957 are presented in Table 1, in Portuguese. The experiment consisted of 3 replications of the treatments: without fertilizer and with fertilizer (40 Kg of N, from ammonium sulfate; 100 Kg of P(2)0(5) from superphosphate and 40 Kg K2 O, from potassium chloride). Four complete stools (stalks and leaves) were harvested from each treatment, and the plants separated in stalks and leaves, weighed, dried and analysed every month from 6 up to 15 months of age. The data obtained for fresh and dry matter production are presented in table 2, and in figure land 2, in Portuguese. The curves for fresh and dry matter production showed that fertilized and no fertilized sugar cane with 6 months of age presents only 5% of its total weight at 15 months of age. The most intense period of growth in this experiment is located, between 8 and 12 months of age, that is between December 1956 and April 1957. The dry matter production of sugar cane with 8 and 12 months of age was, respectively, 12,5% and 87,5% of the total weight at 15 months of age. The growth of sugar cane in relation to its age follows a sigmoid curve, according to the figures 1, 2 and 3. The increase of dry matter production promoted by using fertilizer was 62,5% when sugar cane was 15 months of age. The concentration of the elements (tables 4 and 5 in Portuguese) present a general trend of decreasing as the cane grows older. In the stalks this is true for all elements studied in this experiment. But in the leaves, somme elements, like sulfur and silicon, appears to increase with the increasing of age. Others, like calcium and magnesium do not show large variations, and finally a third group, formed by nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium seems to decrease at the beginning and later presents a light increasing. The concentration of the elements was higher in the leaves than in the stalks from 6 up to 15 months of age. There were some exceptions. Potassium, magnesium and sulfur were higher in the stalks than in the leaves from 6 up to 8 or 9 months of age. After 9 months, the leaves presented more potassium, magnesium and sulfur than the stalks. The percentage of nitrogen in the leaves was lower in the plants that received fertilizer than in the plants without fertilizer with 6, 7, 8, 10, 11 and 13 months of age. This can be explained by "dilution effect". The uptake of elements by 4 stools (stalks and leaves) of sugar cane according to the plant age is showed in table 6, in Portuguese. The absorption of all studied elements, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, magnesium, sulfur and silicon, was higher in plants that received fertilizer. The trend of uptake of nitrogen and potassium is similar to the trend of production of dry matter, that is, the maximum absorption of those two nutrients occurs between 9 and 13 months of age. Finaly, the maxima amounts of elements absorbed by 4 stools (stalks and leaves) of sugar cane plants that received fertilizer are condensed in the following table: Element Maximum absorption in grams Age of the plants in months Nitrogen (N) 81.0 14 Phosphorus (P) 6.8 15 Potassium (K) 81.5 15 Calcium (Ca) 19.2 15 Magnesium (Mg) 13.9 13 Sulfur (S) 9.3 15 Silicon (Si) 61.8 15 It is very interesting to note the low absorption of phosphorus even with 100 kg of P2O5 per hectare, aplied as superphosphate. The uptake of phosphorus was lower than calcium, magnesium and sulfur. Also, it is noteworthy the large amount of silicon absorbed by sugar cane.

O método potenciométrico na determinação do H+ trocável em solos

For the determination of exchangeable hydrogen ion in soils, the authors of the presente work made the extraction with normal calcium acetate solution that may have an initial pH between 7 and 8 without altering the amount of hydrogen ion extracted. The extraction was made by shaking 5,0 grams of air dry soil with 100 ml of normal calcium acetate solution, the pH of wich was ascertained to 7,0, 7,5 and 8,0 with acetic acid, in 250 mil conical flasks for 30 minutes in a Wagner shaker (30-40 rpm). The contents of the flasks were then, filtered. A 50 ml aliquot of each of the leachate was titrated with a 0,020 N NaOH solution and the volumes consumed sodium hydroxide were ploted against pH. The titration curves thus obtained showed to be straight lines between pH 8 and 9 and parallel to the curve obtained by the titration of the blank. Two ways of locating the end point of the titration showed to be possible: the use of a pHmeter or titrimeter or the use of phenolphtalein as indicator. When using a pH meter or a titrimeter, the end point may rest in any point between pH 8 and 9, and the volume of sodium hydroxide consumed is found by comparison with a similar curve obtained by the titration of the blank. When using phenolphtalein the calcium acetate solution must have a pH below 8.

A comparative analysis of Cobb-Douglas model with additive and multiplicative error

This paper dis cusses the fitting of a Cobb-Doug las response curve Yi = αXβi, with additive error, Yi = αXβi + e i, instead of the usual multiplicative error Yi = αXβi (1 + e i). The estimation of the parameters A and B is discussed. An example is given with use of both types of error.

Biologia reprodutiva de Apidoras fuscoguttatus (Siluriformes, Callichthyidae) em riacho de cabeceira da bacia do alto Rio Paraná

The reproductive biology of Aspidoras fuscoguttatus Nijssen & Isbrücker, 1976 from a stream in São José do Rio Preto, northwestern São Paulo State, Brazil, was monthly investigated in the period of August 1999 to July 2000. Measurements of total length, body weight, gonadal weight and macroscopic assessment of gonadal maturation were performed. Environmental parameters were considered in order to verify associations with the reproductive period. Populational structure showed total length amplitude between 14.2 and 50.8 mm. Pronounced sexual dimorphism was verified. The largest mean values of gonadosomatic relation for females coincided with the rainy season (November to March). Mean length at first sexual maturity was different for males (30.5 mm) and females (37.1 mm). Fecundity varied between 51 and 166 oocytes. Gonadal maturation curve, frequency of maturation stages and size frequency distributions of oocytes in mature ovaries revealed a long reproductive period, suggesting fractional spawning.

Curva de sobrevivência e estimativa de entropia em Lucilia cuprina (Diptera, Calliphoridae)

Lucilia cuprina (Wiedemann, 1830) is a cosmopolite blowfly species of medical and veterinary importance because it produces myiasis, mainly in ovine. In order to evaluate the demographic characteristics of this species, survivorship curves for 327 adult males and 323 adult females, from generation F1 maintained under experimental conditions, were obtained. Entropy was utilized as the estimator of the survival pattern to quantify the mortality distribution of individuals as a function of age. The entropy values 0.216 (males) and 0.303 (females) were obtained. These results denote that, considering the survivorship interval until the death of the last individual for each sex, the males present a tendency of mortality in more advanced age intervals, in comparison with the females.

Dinâmica reprodutiva de Oligosarcus jenynsii e O. robustus (Characiformes, Characidae) na lagoa Fortaleza, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil

Oligosarcus jenynsii (Günther, 1864) and O. robustus Menezes, 1969 are fish species distributed in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, Uruguay, and northern Argentina. The reproductive period and recruitment, sex ratio, absolute and relative fecundity, and body length at first gonadal maturation of the two carnivorous species from Fortaleza Lagoon were analized. The specimens were sampled monthly, from May 2000 to April 2001, with fishing effort of 24 hours/month, using stationary gillnets of different mesh sizes and seine net (three samples per edge). The records of each individual included total length, total weight, gonad weight, sex and gonadal maturity stage. The reproductive period of both O. jenynsii and O. robustus ranges from May/June to November/December, according to the bimonthly variation of the mean values of gonosomatic index, and the relative frequencies of the gonadal maturation stages. Recruitment of new individuals to the population occurs from November/December to March/April. The sex ratio is different from 1:1 for O. jenynsii and similar to 1:1 for O. robustus. The mean absolute fecundity, calculated by counting sub-sampled oocytes from mature females, was 14,483 oocytes for O. jenynsii, and 16,308 oocytes for O. robustus. The first maturation curve shows that O. jenynsii begins to reproduce between 84 mm and 104 mm (total length), and O. robustus between 126 mm and 146 mm, probably at similar ages.

Terrestrial isopod diversity in the subtropical neotropics: Itapuã State Park, southern Brazil

We analysed species abundance and composition during one year of sampling at Itapuã State Park, a conservation unit in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, southern Brazil. Samples were collected monthly from May 2003 to April 2004 along a 4 km forest trail divided in three transects along the slopes of a small hill. Terrestrial isopods were hand searched by three people for 40 minutes at two sampling sites along each transect, summing 240 minutes of sampling effort per transect per month. Six species distributed in six families were found. The collector curve stabilised when half the samples were taken, demonstrating sampling sufficiency: analytical estimates did not predict more species to be found in the trail. Atlantoscia floridana (van Name, 1940) was dominant in all transects. Abundance varied along the year with a summer and a winter peak, but peaks were not consistent among transects. The first part of the trail, used for ecotourism, was less diverse, had less species (4 as compared to 6 in the other transects), and was thus also less similar in composition.