84 resultados para Risk in the social theory
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Social wasps of two Cerrado localities in the northeast of Maranhão state, Brazil (Hymenoptera, Vespidae, Polistinae). Results are presented of a survey of social wasps from two savanna localities 30 km apart from each other in the northeastern part of the Brazilian state of Maranhão, Brazil: village of Bom Jesus (municipality of Urbano Santos) and village of Tabocas (municipality of Barreirinhas). Two hundred and twenty-seven nests of 31 species of 13 genera were found and mapped. Polybia rejecta was the species with the largest average density of colonies/ha in both areas. The similarity (Jaccard's index) between the Tabocas and Bom Jesus faunas was 41.9%. Twenty-seven species of plants were utilized as nesting substrate. In Tabocas, Qualea parviflora Mart. (Vochysiaceae) trees were used as substrate by 30.3% of the wasp colonies. In Bom Jesus, the vast majority of colonies (27.9%) were found in a secondary vegetation type, the so-called carrasco, indicator of vegetation change. The number of social wasp species recorded in this study is similar to others obtained in several areas of Cerrado vegetation in Brazil. Nine species are new to Maranhão, and Mischocyttarus cerberus had its distribution confirmed, increasing to 58 the number of species known to occur in that state.
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First report of interspecific facultative social parasitism in the paper wasp genus Mischocyttarus Saussure (Hymenoptera, Vespidae). Parasitism of colonies of the social wasp Mischocyttarus cerberus Ducke, 1918 by females of Mischocyttarus consimilis Zikán, 1949 was observed in a rural area of Dourados, state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. In all monitored cases, the invasion occurred in the pre-emergence colony stage, generally by a single female of M. consimilis. The period of establishment of the foreign female in the host colony was marked by antagonistic behaviors between the host female and the invasive. In general, the architecture of the parasitized nest was modified from the typical architecture of the host species nest.
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ABSTRACTPostmortem injuries are a source of misinterpretations in forensic analysis and therefore are subject matter of taphonomic interest. Many types of injuries can cause different artifacts, which deserve attention of the forensic pathologists when evaluating corpses, either at the crime scene or during an autopsy. Insects can be important biotaphonomic agents and their activity may result in artifacts that resemble antemortem injuries. Here, we describe postmortem injuries caused by the Neotropical wasp Agelaia fulvofasciata (Degeer, 1773) on domestic pig carcasses weighting 15 kg. The specimens showed extensive injuries to the lower lip, similar to lacerations, and some minor lesions on the snout and anus. In addition, we observed the same wasp species preying on larvae of Sarcophagidae (Peckia sp.). Besides causing postmortem injuries, the ability of this species to detect carcasses in the early and fresh decomposition stages should be noted. Thus, future applications aiming criminal, any biotaphonomic events caused by carrion insects need to be disclosed.
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The objective of this work was to list potential candidate bee species for environmental risk assessment (ERA) of genetically modified (GM) cotton and to identify the most suited bee species for this task, according to their abundance and geographical distribution. Field inventories of bee on cotton flowers were performed in the states of Bahia and Mato Grosso, and in Distrito Federal, Brazil. During a 344 hour sampling, 3,470 bees from 74 species were recovered, at eight sites. Apis mellifera dominated the bee assemblages at all sites. Sampling at two sites that received no insecticide application was sufficient to identify the three most common and geographically widespread wild species: Paratrigona lineata, Melissoptila cnecomola, and Trigona spinipes, which could be useful indicators of pollination services in the ERA. Indirect ordination of common wild species revealed that insecticides reduced the number of native bee species and that interannual variation in bee assemblages may be low. Accumulation curves of rare bee species did not saturate, as expected in tropical and megadiverse regions. Species-based approaches are limited to analyze negative impacts of GM cotton on pollinator biological diversity. The accumulation rate of rare bee species, however, may be useful for evaluating possible negative effects of GM cotton on bee diversity.
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Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 ºC, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH > 90%); ii) medium risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH > 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease.
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ABSTRACT When Hume, in the Treatise on Human Nature, began his examination of the relation of cause and effect, in particular, of the idea of necessary connection which is its essential constituent, he identified two preliminary questions that should guide his research: (1) For what reason we pronounce it necessary that every thing whose existence has a beginning should also have a cause and (2) Why we conclude that such particular causes must necessarily have such particular effects? (1.3.2, 14-15) Hume observes that our belief in these principles can result neither from an intuitive grasp of their truth nor from a reasoning that could establish them by demonstrative means. In particular, with respect to the first, Hume examines and rejects some arguments with which Locke, Hobbes and Clarke tried to demonstrate it, and suggests, by exclusion, that the belief that we place on it can only come from experience. Somewhat surprisingly, however, Hume does not proceed to show how that derivation of experience could be made, but proposes instead to move directly to an examination of the second principle, saying that, "perhaps, be found in the end, that the same answer will serve for both questions" (1.3.3, 9). Hume's answer to the second question is well known, but the first question is never answered in the rest of the Treatise, and it is even doubtful that it could be, which would explain why Hume has simply chosen to remove any mention of it when he recompiled his theses on causation in the Enquiry concerning Human Understanding. Given this situation, an interesting question that naturally arises is to investigate the relations of logical or conceptual implication between these two principles. Hume seems to have thought that an answer to (2) would also be sufficient to provide an answer to (1). Henry Allison, in his turn, argued (in Custom and Reason in Hume, p. 94-97) that the two questions are logically independent. My proposal here is to try to show that there is indeed a logical dependency between them, but the implication is, rather, from (1) to (2). If accepted, this result may be particularly interesting for an interpretation of the scope of the so-called "Kant's reply to Hume" in the Second Analogy of Experience, which is structured as a proof of the a priori character of (1), but whose implications for (2) remain controversial.
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This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climatic risk in maize crop cultivated in the Northeastern of Brazil, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. The water balance model, combined with geospatial technologies, was used to identify areas of the study region where the crops could suffer yield restrictions due to climate change. The data used in the study were the time series of rainfall with at least 30 years of daily data, crop coefficients, potential evapotranspiration and duration of the crop cycle. The scenarios of the increasing of air temperature used in the simulations were of 1.5ºC, 3ºC and 5ºC. The sowing date of maize crop from January to March appears to be less affected by warming scenarios than the sowing in November and December or April and May.
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The application of the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to model the probability of occurrence of extreme low Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values leads to an increase of the knowledge related to the occurrence of extreme dry months. This sort of analysis can be carried out by means of two approaches: the block maxima (BM; associated with the General Extreme Value distribution) and the peaks-over-threshold (POT; associated with the Generalized Pareto distribution). Each of these procedures has its own advantages and drawbacks. Thus, the main goal of this study is to compare the performance of BM and POT in characterizing the probability of occurrence of extreme dry SPI values obtained from the weather station of Ribeirão Preto-SP (1937-2012). According to the goodness-of-fit tests, both BM and POT can be used to assess the probability of occurrence of the aforementioned extreme dry SPI monthly values. However, the scalar measures of accuracy and the return level plots indicate that POT provides the best fit distribution. The study also indicated that the uncertainties in the parameters estimates of a probabilistic model should be taken into account when the probability associated with a severe/extreme dry event is under analysis.
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Risk factors for subclinical mastitis were studied in 474 buffaloes cows proceeding from four dairy farms located in the states of Pernambuco, Alagoas, Bahia and Ceará, Brazil. Milk samples (n=1896) of lactating buffaloes cows were examined for somatic cells count (SCC) and microbiologic exam, and a questionnaire composed by objective questions was applied in order to obtain animals and herd management data. Risk factors analysis was performed in two stages: univariate and mutivariate analysis. Two analysis were performed, one considering the animal classification for SCC as the dependent variable (<400,000 - negative; >400,000 - positive) and another, considering the microbiologic exam result (positive and negative). In the multivariate analysis considering SCC as dependent variable, the lack of teat washing was the only variable identified as a risk factor, so that farms without this procedure before the milking presented risk of infection of 2.68 (I.C. 1.49-4.83). In the multivariate analysis considering the microbiologic exam as dependent variable, it was observed that properties that performed the cleaning of the milking equipment manually presented risk of 1.85 (I.CI. 1.32-3.64), which was higher than those properties that performed the cleaning mechanically (p=0.019). Risk factors for the occurrence of subclinical mastitis in dairy buffaloes in Brazilian Northeast farms were related to the characteristics of improper milking management. Risk factors identified in this study must be carefully corrected in order to reduce the frequency of mastitis cases, and therefore, contribute for disease control and prevention in the herds.
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The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of anti-Leptospira spp. antibodies and the risk factors for Leptospira spp. infection in breeding cattle herds in the south central region of Paraná state. It was based on the statistic delineation/serological samples and information regarding the selected farms employed in the study of bovine brucellosis for Paraná state in the context of National Program for Control and Eradication of Brucellosis and Tuberculosis. A total of 1.880 females aged >24 months from 274 non vaccinated herds were studied. Serum samples were tested for antibodies against Leptospira spp. using microscopic agglutination test (MAT) with 22 Leptospira serovars. The epidemiological questionnaire was applied on all the selected farms and aimed to obtain epidemiological data. Hundred eighty one of 274 herds were positive for Leptospira spp./presenting prevalence of positive herds of 66.06% (IC95%=60.12-71,65%). Presence of >43 cattle (OR=3.120; IC=1.418-6.867)/animal purchase (OR=2.010; IC=1.154-3.500)/rent of pastures (OR=2.925; IC=1.060-8.068) and presence of maternity paddock (OR=1.981; IC=1,068-3,676) were identified as risk factors for leptospirosis due to any serovar in the multivariate logistic regression. Risk factors for leptospirosis due to serovar Hardjo were presence of >43 cattle (OR=3.622; IC=1.512-8,677)/animal purchase (OR=3.143; IC=1.557-6.342)/rent of pastures (OR=4.070; IC=1.370-12.087) and presence of horses (OR=2.981; IC=1.321-6.726). These results indicate that Leptospira spp. infection is widespread in the south central region of Paraná state and that factors related to the herd characteristic and management are associated with the infection.
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The objective of this study was to investigate the prevalence of anti-Neospora caninum antibodies in cattle from milk producing farms of the microregion of Batalha, state of Alagoas, Brazil, as well as to identify the risk factors associated with the infection. Blood samples were collected from 1,004 cattle of 17 farms for the serological investigation regarding the presence of anti-N. caninum antibodies by the Indirect Immunofluorescence Reaction Technique (IMRT). From the total amount of samples analyzed, 77/1,004 (7.67%) were positive and 927/1,004 (92.33%) were negative. The logistical regression identified that cattle from farms without consortium breeding have an infection risk 6.33 (p<0.001; C.I. 2.89-13.10) times higher than cattle from farms with that type of breeding. Cattle from farms where the aborted fetuses are not adequately buried have an infection risk 3.04 (p<0.001; C.I. 1.64-5.63) times higher than cattle from farms with adequate destination of these fetuses. Infection by N. caninum occurs in cattle of the investigated region. The factors identified in our study can be used as risk indicators, so that control measures could be implemented to avoid infection by N. caninum in the herds of this region.
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Few data are available on the prevalence and risk factors of Chlamydophila abortus infection in goats in Brazil. A cross-sectional study was carried out to determine the flock-level prevalence of C. abortus infection in goats from the semiarid region of the Paraíba State, Northeast region of Brazil, as well as to identify risk factors associated with the infection. Flocks were randomly selected and a pre-established number of female goats > 12 mo old were sampled in each of these flocks. A total of 975 serum samples from 110 flocks were collected, and structured questionnaire focusing on risk factors for C. abortus infection was given to each farmer at the time of blood collection. For the serological diagnosis the complement fixation test (CFT) using C. abortus S26/3 strain as antigen was performed. The flock-level factors for C. abortus prevalence were tested using multivariate logistic regression model. Fifty-five flocks out of 110 presented at least one seropositive animal with an overall prevalence of 50.0% (95%; CI: 40.3%, 59.7%). Ninety-one out of 975 dairy goats examined were seropositive with titers >32, resulting in a frequency of 9.3%. Lend buck for breeding (odds ratio = 2.35; 95% CI: 1.04-5.33) and history of abortions (odds ratio = 3.06; 95% CI: 1.37-6.80) were associated with increased flock prevalence.
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The purpose of this paper was to study the etiology of mastitis, determine the antimicrobial susceptibility profile of Staphylococcus spp. and to identify the risk factors associated with infection in dairy cows in the states of Bahia and Pernambuco, Brazil. From the 2,064 milk samples analyzed, 2.6% were associated with cases of clinical mastitis and 28.2% with subclinical mastitis. In the microbiological culture, Staphylococcus spp. (49.1%) and Corynebacterium spp. (35.3%) were the main agents found, followed by Prototheca spp. (4.6%) and Gram negative bacilli (3.6%). In the antimicrobial susceptibility testing, all 218 Staphylococcus spp. were susceptible to rifampicin and the least effective drug was amoxicillin (32.6%). Multidrug resistance to three or more drugs was observed in 65.6% of Staphylococcus spp. The risk factors identified for mastitis were the extensive production system, not providing feed supplements, teat drying process, not disinfecting the teats before and after milking, and inadequate hygiene habits of the milking workers. The presence of multiresistant isolates in bovine milk demonstrates the importance of the choice and appropriate use of antimicrobial agents. Prophylactic and control measures, including teat antisepsis and best practices for achieving hygienic milking should be established in order to prevent new cases of the disease in herds.
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Abstract: The aim of the present study was to assess the occurrence of Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) infection and risk factors of this disease in three hundred serum samples from on 23 familiar agricultural properties in the semiarid region of the state of Pernambuco, Brazil. ELISA was used to study antibodies anti-Mycoplasma gallisepticum. The univariate analysis (chi-squared test or Fischer's exact test) followed by multivariate analysis (logistic regression) were used to assess the risk factors with two variables: management and sanity of the poultry. It was detected a frequence of 53.33% (157/300) of the birds were positive for MG, with 100% foci. The risk factors confirmed by multivariate analysis, in the present study, were the presence of other poultry species on the property, including Numida meleagris (OR=2.22; p=0.005), parrots (OR=1.72; p=0.027), and of passerines (OR=1.88; p=0.007). These results showed that Mycoplasma gallisepticum infection is endemic among backyard poultry in the semiarid region of the state of Pernambuco. These birds could be a source of infection for other wild or domestic poultry. . This is the first report of the occurrence of avian mycoplasmosis in backyard poultry in the state of Pernambuco in northeastern Brazil. The risk factors identified should serve as a parameter for the health authorities to seek solutions related to controlling the disease.
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Cirrhotic patients (23 with alcoholic cirrhosis, 5 with posthepatitic cirrhosis and 2 with cryptogenic cirrhosis) with ascites and portal hypertension were studied and divided into two groups corresponding to high or low risk to develop spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) related to the concentration of total protein in the ascitic fluid (A-TP): group I (high risk): A-TP£1.5 g/dl and group II (low risk): A-TP>1.5 g/dl. Fibronectin (FN), C3 and C4 concentrations were measured by radial immunodiffusion while total protein was measured by the biuret method. The mean values (group I vs group II) of C3 (12.59 ± 4.72 vs 24.53 ± 15.58 mg/dl), C4 (4.26 ± 3.87 vs 7.26 ± 4.14 mg/dl) and FN (50.47 ± 12.49 vs 75.89 ± 24.70 mg/dl) in the ascitic fluid were significantly lower (P<0.05) in the group considered to be at high risk for SBP. No significant difference was observed in the plasma/ascites fibronectin ratio (3.91 ± 1.21 vs 3.80 ± 1.26) or gradient (131.46 ± 64.01 vs 196.96 ± 57.38) between groups. Fibronectin in ascites was significantly correlated to C3 (r = 0.76), C4 (r = 0.58), total protein (r = 0.73) and plasma FN (r = 0.58) (P<0.05). The data suggest that the FN concentration in ascites is related to the opsonic capacity of this fluid, and that its concentration in the ascitic fluid may be a biochemical risk factor indicator for the development of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis