83 resultados para POISSON REGRESSION
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ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To evaluate whether the support offered by maternity hospitals is associated with higher prevalences of exclusive and predominant breastfeeding. METHODS This is a cross-sectional study including a representative sample of 916 infants less than six months who were born in maternity hospitals, in Ribeirao Preto, Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, 2011. The maternity hospitals were evaluated in relation to their fulfillment of the Ten Steps to Successful Breastfeeding. Data were collected regarding breastfeeding patterns, the birth hospital and other characteristics. The individualized effect of the study factor on exclusive and predominant breastfeeding was analyzed using Poisson multiple regression with robust variance. RESULTS Predominant breastfeeding tended to be more prevalent when the number of fulfilled steps was higher (p of linear trend = 0.057). The step related to not offering artificial teats or pacifiers to breastfed infants and that related to encouraging the establishment of breastfeeding support groups were associated, respectively, to a higher prevalence of exclusive (PR = 1.26; 95%CI 1.04;1.54) and predominant breastfeeding (PR = 1.55; 95%CI 1.01;2.39), after an adjustment was performed for confounding variables. CONCLUSIONS We observed a positive association between support offered by maternity hospitals and prevalences of exclusive and predominant breastfeeding. These results can be useful to other locations with similar characteristics (cities with hospitals that fulfill the Ten Steps to Successful Breastfeeding) to provide incentive to breastfeeding, by means of promoting, protecting and supporting breastfeeding in maternity hospitals.
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Opportunistic diseases (OD) are the most common cause of death in AIDS patients. To access the incidence of OD and survival in advanced immunodeficiency, we included 79 patients with AIDS treated at Hospital Evandro Chagas (FIOCRUZ) from September 1997 to December 1999 with at least one CD4 count <=100 cells/mm³. The incidence of OD was analyzed by Poisson's regression, and survival by Kaplan Meier and Cox analysis, considering a retrospective (before CD4 <=100 cells/mm³) and a prospective (after CD4 <=100 cells/mm³) period, and controlling for demographic, clinical and laboratory characteristics. The confidence interval estipulated was 95%. Mean follow-up period was 733 days (CI = 683-782). During the study 9 (11.4%) patients died. Survival from AIDS diagnosis was a mean of 2589 days (CI = 2363-2816) and from the date of the CD4 count CD4 <=100 cells/mm³ was a mean of 1376 (CI = 1181-1572) days. Incidence of OD was 0.51 pp/y before CD4 <= 100 cells/mm³ and 0.29 pp/y after CD4 <= 100 cells/mm³. A lower number of ODs before CD4 < 100 cells/mm³ was associated with lower incidence rates after CD4 <= 100 cells/mm³. AIDS diagnosis based on CD4+ counts <= 200 cells/mm³ was associated with lower incidence rates after CD4 <= 100 cells/mm³. Baseline CD4 counts above 50 cells/mm³ (HR = 0.13) and restoration of baseline CD4+ counts above 100 cells/mm³ (HR = 0.16) were associated with a lower risk of death. Controling both variables, only restoration of baseline counts was statistically significant (HR = 0.22, p = 0.04). We found a very low incidence of OD and long survival after CD4 < 100 cells/mm³. Survival was significantly associated with restoration of baseline CD4 counts above 100 cells/mm³.
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INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.
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Abstract: INTRODUCTION: Geographic information systems (GIS) enable public health data to be analyzed in terms of geographical variability and the relationship between risk factors and diseases. This study discusses the application of the geographic weighted regression (GWR) model to health data to improve the understanding of spatially varying social and clinical factors that potentially impact leprosy prevalence. METHODS: This ecological study used data from leprosy case records from 1998-2006, aggregated by neighborhood in the Duque de Caxias municipality in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In the GWR model, the associations between the log of the leprosy detection rate and social and clinical factors were analyzed. RESULTS: Maps of the estimated coefficients by neighborhood confirmed the heterogeneous spatial relationships between the leprosy detection rates and the predictors. The proportion of households with piped water was associated with higher detection rates, mainly in the northeast of the municipality. Indeterminate forms were strongly associated with higher detections rates in the south, where access to health services was more established. CONCLUSIONS: GWR proved a useful tool for epidemiological analysis of leprosy in a local area, such as Duque de Caxias. Epidemiological analysis using the maps of the GWR model offered the advantage of visualizing the problem in sub-regions and identifying any spatial dependence in the local study area.
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Background:Previous reports have inferred a linear relationship between LDL-C and changes in coronary plaque volume (CPV) measured by intravascular ultrasound. However, these publications included a small number of studies and did not explore other lipid markers.Objective:To assess the association between changes in lipid markers and regression of CPV using published data.Methods:We collected data from the control, placebo and intervention arms in studies that compared the effect of lipidlowering treatments on CPV, and from the placebo and control arms in studies that tested drugs that did not affect lipids. Baseline and final measurements of plaque volume, expressed in mm3, were extracted and the percentage changes after the interventions were calculated. Performing three linear regression analyses, we assessed the relationship between percentage and absolute changes in lipid markers and percentage variations in CPV.Results:Twenty-seven studies were selected. Correlations between percentage changes in LDL-C, non-HDL-C, and apolipoprotein B (ApoB) and percentage changes in CPV were moderate (r = 0.48, r = 0.47, and r = 0.44, respectively). Correlations between absolute differences in LDL-C, non‑HDL-C, and ApoB with percentage differences in CPV were stronger (r = 0.57, r = 0.52, and r = 0.79). The linear regression model showed a statistically significant association between a reduction in lipid markers and regression of plaque volume.Conclusion:A significant association between changes in different atherogenic particles and regression of CPV was observed. The absolute reduction in ApoB showed the strongest correlation with coronary plaque regression.
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The general properties of POISSON distributions and their relations to the binomial distribuitions are discussed. Two methods of statistical analysis are dealt with in detail: X2-test. In order to carry out the X2-test, the mean frequency and the theoretical frequencies for all classes are calculated. Than the observed and the calculated frequencies are compared, using the well nown formula: f(obs) - f(esp) 2; i(esp). When the expected frequencies are small, one must not forget that the value of X2 may only be calculated, if the expected frequencies are biger than 5. If smaller values should occur, the frequencies of neighboroughing classes must ge pooled. As a second test reintroduced by BRIEGER, consists in comparing the observed and expected error standard of the series. The observed error is calculated by the general formula: δ + Σ f . VK n-1 where n represents the number of cases. The theoretical error of a POISSON series with mean frequency m is always ± Vm. These two values may be compared either by dividing the observed by the theoretical error and using BRIEGER's tables for # or by dividing the respective variances and using SNEDECOR's tables for F. The degree of freedom for the observed error is one less the number of cases studied, and that of the theoretical error is always infinite. In carrying out these tests, one important point must never be overlloked. The values for the first class, even if no concrete cases of the type were observed, must always be zero, an dthe value of the subsequent classes must be 1, 2, 3, etc.. This is easily seen in some of the classical experiments. For instance in BORKEWITZ example of accidents in Prussian armee corps, the classes are: no, one, two, etc., accidents. When counting the frequency of bacteria, these values are: no, one, two, etc., bacteria or cultures of bacteria. Ins studies of plant diseases equally the frequencies are : no, one, two, etc., plants deseased. Howewer more complicated cases may occur. For instance, when analising the degree of polyembriony, frequently the case of "no polyembryony" corresponds to the occurrence of one embryo per each seed. Thus the classes are not: no, one, etc., embryo per seed, but they are: no additional embryo, one additional embryo, etc., per seed with at least one embryo. Another interestin case was found by BRIEGER in genetic studies on the number os rows in maize. Here the minimum number is of course not: no rows, but: no additional beyond eight rows. The next class is not: nine rows, but: 10 rows, since the row number varies always in pairs of rows. Thus the value of successive classes are: no additional pair of rows beyond 8, one additional pair (or 10 rows), two additional pairs (or 12 rows) etc.. The application of the methods is finally shown on the hand of three examples : the number of seeds per fruit in the oranges M Natal" and "Coco" and in "Calamondin". As shown in the text and the tables, the agreement with a POISSON series is very satisfactory in the first two cases. In the third case BRIEGER's error test indicated a significant reduction of variability, and the X2 test showed that there were two many fruits with 4 or 5 seeds and too few with more or with less seeds. Howewer the fact that no fruit was found without seed, may be taken to indicate that in Calamondin fruits are not fully parthenocarpic and may develop only with one seed at the least. Thus a new analysis was carried out, on another class basis. As value for the first class the following value was accepted: no additional seed beyond the indispensable minimum number of one seed, and for the later classes the values were: one, two, etc., additional seeds. Using this new basis for all calculations, a complete agreement of the observed and expected frequencies, of the correspondig POISSON series was obtained, thus proving that our hypothesis of the impossibility of obtaining fruits without any seed was correct for Calamondin while the other two oranges were completely parthenocarpic and fruits without seeds did occur.
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Calomys callosus a wild rodent, is a natural host of Trypanosoma cruzi. Twelve C. callosus were infected with 10(5) trypomastigotes of the F strain (a myotropic strain) of T. cruzi. Parasitemia decreased on the 21 st day becoming negative around the 40th day of infection. All animals survived but had positive parasitological tests, until the end of the experiment. The infected animals developed severe inflammation in the myocardium and skeletal muscle. This process was pronounced from the 26 th to the 30th day and gradually subsided from the 50 th day becoming absent or residual on the 64 th day after infection. Collagen was identified by the picro Sirius red method. Fibrogenesis developed early, but regression of fibrosis occurred between the 50th and 64th day. Ultrastructural study disclosed a predominance of macrophages and fibroblasts in the inflammatory infiltrates, with small numbers of lymphocytes. Macrophages had active phagocytosis and showed points of contact with altered muscle cells. Different degrees of matrix expansion were present, with granular and fibrilar deposits and collagen bundles. These alterations subsided by the 64th days. Macrophages seem to be the main immune effector cell in the C. callosus model of infection with T. cruzi. The mechanisms involved in the rapid fibrogenesis and its regression deserve further investigation.
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The aim of this work is to establish a relationship between schistosomiasis prevalence and social-environmental variables, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, through multiple linear regression. The final regression model was established, after a variables selection phase, with a set of spatial variables which contains the summer minimum temperature, human development index, and vegetation type variables. Based on this model, a schistosomiasis risk map was built for Minas Gerais.
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Nest plasticity of Cornitermes silvestrii (Isoptera, Termitidae, Syntermitinae) in response to flood pulse in the Pantanal, Mato Grosso, Brazil. The Pantanal is one of the largest wetlands in the world. Since many areas in Pantanal are flooded during part of the year, it is expected that plants and animals would have mechanisms for their survival during the flooded period. This study investigated the existence of differences in nest shape and inquilines of Cornitermes silvestrii in areas influenced by the flood pulse. We measured the volume, height, width, and height/width ratio of 32 nests in flooded areas and 27 in dry areas, and performed an one-way-Anova with the quasi-Poisson distribution to determine if there were differences in the nest measurements between the points. To analyze the relationship of nest inquilines to flood pulse and nest shape, we performed a regression with a Poisson distribution with the inquiline richness and flood pulse, and the above measurements. The nests of C. silvestrii in flooded areas were significantly higher than nests in dry areas, and had a larger height/width ratio. Colonies in periodically flooded areas would probably make a larger effort to extend their nests vertically, to maintain at least some portion of the structure out of the water and prevent the entire colony from being submerged. Neither the size of the nest nor the flood pulses influenced the assemblage of 11 species found in nests of C. silvestrii.
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The objective of this work was to estimate the stability and adaptability of pod and seed yield in runner peanut genotypes based on the nonlinear regression and AMMI analysis. Yield data from 11 trials, distributed in six environments and three harvests, carried out in the Northeast region of Brazil during the rainy season were used. Significant effects of genotypes (G), environments (E), and GE interactions were detected in the analysis, indicating different behaviors among genotypes in favorable and unfavorable environmental conditions. The genotypes BRS Pérola Branca and LViPE‑06 are more stable and adapted to the semiarid environment, whereas LGoPE‑06 is a promising material for pod production, despite being highly dependent on favorable environments.
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The objective of this work was to compare random regression models for the estimation of genetic parameters for Guzerat milk production, using orthogonal Legendre polynomials. Records (20,524) of test-day milk yield (TDMY) from 2,816 first-lactation Guzerat cows were used. TDMY grouped into 10-monthly classes were analyzed for additive genetic effect and for environmental and residual permanent effects (random effects), whereas the contemporary group, calving age (linear and quadratic effects) and mean lactation curve were analized as fixed effects. Trajectories for the additive genetic and permanent environmental effects were modeled by means of a covariance function employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials ranging from the second to the fifth order. Residual variances were considered in one, four, six, or ten variance classes. The best model had six residual variance classes. The heritability estimates for the TDMY records varied from 0.19 to 0.32. The random regression model that used a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and a fifth-order polynomial for the permanent environmental effect is adequate for comparison by the main employed criteria. The model with a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and that with a fourth-order for the permanent environmental effect could also be employed in these analyses.
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A Fortran77 program, SSPBE, designed to solve the spherically symmetric Poisson-Boltzmann equation using cell model for ionic macromolecular aggregates or macroions is presented. The program includes an adsorption model for ions at the aggregate surface. The working algorithm solves the Poisson-Boltzmann equation in the integral representation using the Picard iteration method. Input parameters are introduced via an ASCII file, sspbe.txt. Output files yield the radial distances versus mean field potentials and average molar ion concentrations, the molar concentration of ions at the cell boundary, the self-consistent degree of ion adsorption from the surface and other related data. Ion binding to ionic, zwitterionic and reverse micelles are presented as representative examples of the applications of the SSPBE program.
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The ability of biomolecules to catalyze chemical reactions is due chiefly to their sensitivity to variations of the pH in the surrounding environment. The reason for this is that they are made up of chemical groups whose ionization states are modulated by pH changes that are of the order of 0.4 units. The determination of the protonation states of such chemical groups as a function of conformation of the biomolecule and the pH of the environment can be useful in the elucidation of important biological processes from enzymatic catalysis to protein folding and molecular recognition. In the past 15 years, the theory of Poisson-Boltzmann has been successfully used to estimate the pKa of ionizable sites in proteins yielding results, which may differ by 0.1 unit from the experimental values. In this study, we review the theory of Poisson-Boltzmann under the perspective of its application to the calculation of pKa in proteins.