Performance of Surgical Risk Scores to Predict Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

AbstractBackground:Predicting mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) remains a challenge.Objectives:To evaluate the performance of 5 risk scores for cardiac surgery in predicting the 30-day mortality among patients of the Brazilian Registry of TAVI.Methods:The Brazilian Multicenter Registry prospectively enrolled 418 patients undergoing TAVI in 18 centers between 2008 and 2013. The 30-day mortality risk was calculated using the following surgical scores: the logistic EuroSCORE I (ESI), EuroSCORE II (ESII), Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score, Ambler score (AS) and Guaragna score (GS). The performance of the risk scores was evaluated in terms of their calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test) and discrimination [area under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (AUC)].Results:The mean age was 81.5 ± 7.7 years. The CoreValve (Medtronic) was used in 86.1% of the cohort, and the transfemoral approach was used in 96.2%. The observed 30-day mortality was 9.1%. The 30-day mortality predicted by the scores was as follows: ESI, 20.2 ± 13.8%; ESII, 6.5 ± 13.8%; STS score, 14.7 ± 4.4%; AS, 7.0 ± 3.8%; GS, 17.3 ± 10.8%. Using AUC, none of the tested scores could accurately predict the 30-day mortality. AUC for the scores was as follows: 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49 to 0.68, p = 0.09] for ESI; 0.54 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64, p = 0.42) for ESII; 0.57 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.67, p = 0.16) for AS; 0.48 (95% IC: 0.38 to 0.57, p = 0.68) for STS score; and 0.52 (95% CI: 0.42 to 0.62, p = 0.64) for GS. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test indicated acceptable calibration for all scores (p > 0.05).Conclusions:In this real world Brazilian registry, the surgical risk scores were inaccurate in predicting mortality after TAVI. Risk models specifically developed for TAVI are required.

Testosterone Deficiency Increases Hospital Readmission and Mortality Rates in Male Patients with Heart Failure

Background:Testosterone deficiency in patients with heart failure (HF) is associated with decreased exercise capacity and mortality; however, its impact on hospital readmission rate is uncertain. Furthermore, the relationship between testosterone deficiency and sympathetic activation is unknown.Objective:We investigated the role of testosterone level on hospital readmission and mortality rates as well as sympathetic nerve activity in patients with HF.Methods:Total testosterone (TT) and free testosterone (FT) were measured in 110 hospitalized male patients with a left ventricular ejection fraction < 45% and New York Heart Association classification IV. The patients were placed into low testosterone (LT; n = 66) and normal testosterone (NT; n = 44) groups. Hypogonadism was defined as TT < 300 ng/dL and FT < 131 pmol/L. Muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA) was recorded by microneurography in a subpopulation of 27 patients.Results:Length of hospital stay was longer in the LT group compared to in the NT group (37 ± 4 vs. 25 ± 4 days; p = 0.008). Similarly, the cumulative hazard of readmission within 1 year was greater in the LT group compared to in the NT group (44% vs. 22%, p = 0.001). In the single-predictor analysis, TT (hazard ratio [HR], 2.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.58–4.85; p = 0.02) predicted hospital readmission within 90 days. In addition, TT (HR, 4.65; 95% CI, 2.67–8.10; p = 0.009) and readmission within 90 days (HR, 3.27; 95% CI, 1.23–8.69; p = 0.02) predicted increased mortality. Neurohumoral activation, as estimated by MSNA, was significantly higher in the LT group compared to in the NT group (65 ± 3 vs. 51 ± 4 bursts/100 heart beats; p < 0.001).Conclusion:These results support the concept that LT is an independent risk factor for hospital readmission within 90 days and increased mortality in patients with HF. Furthermore, increased MSNA was observed in patients with LT.

Efficacy of Patient Selection for Diagnostic Coronary Angiography in Suspected Coronary Artery Disease

AbstractBackground:Guidelines recommend that in suspected stable coronary artery disease (CAD), a clinical (non-invasive) evaluation should be performed before coronary angiography.Objective:We assessed the efficacy of patient selection for coronary angiography in suspected stable CAD.Methods:We prospectively selected consecutive patients without known CAD, referred to a high-volume tertiary center. Demographic characteristics, risk factors, symptoms and non-invasive test results were correlated to the presence of obstructive CAD. We estimated the CAD probability based on available clinical data and the incremental diagnostic value of previous non-invasive tests.Results:A total of 830 patients were included; median age was 61 years, 49.3% were males, 81% had hypertension and 35.5% were diabetics. Non-invasive tests were performed in 64.8% of the patients. At coronary angiography, 23.8% of the patients had obstructive CAD. The independent predictors for obstructive CAD were: male gender (odds ratio [OR], 3.95; confidence interval [CI] 95%, 2.70 - 5.77), age (OR for 5 years increment, 1.15; CI 95%, 1.06 - 1.26), diabetes (OR, 2.01; CI 95%, 1.40 - 2.90), dyslipidemia (OR, 2.02; CI 95%, 1.32 - 3.07), typical angina (OR, 2.92; CI 95%, 1.77 - 4.83) and previous non-invasive test (OR 1.54; CI 95% 1.05 - 2.27).Conclusions:In this study, less than a quarter of the patients referred for coronary angiography with suspected CAD had the diagnosis confirmed. A better clinical and non-invasive assessment is necessary, to improve the efficacy of patient selection for coronary angiography.

Predictors of Arrhythmic Events Detected by Implantable Loop Recorders in Renal Transplant Candidates

AbstractBackground:The recording of arrhythmic events (AE) in renal transplant candidates (RTCs) undergoing dialysis is limited by conventional electrocardiography. However, continuous cardiac rhythm monitoring seems to be more appropriate due to automatic detection of arrhythmia, but this method has not been used.Objective:We aimed to investigate the incidence and predictors of AE in RTCs using an implantable loop recorder (ILR).Methods:A prospective observational study conducted from June 2009 to January 2011 included 100 consecutive ambulatory RTCs who underwent ILR and were followed-up for at least 1 year. Multivariate logistic regression was applied to define predictors of AE.Results:During a mean follow-up of 424 ± 127 days, AE could be detected in 98% of patients, and 92% had more than one type of arrhythmia, with most considered potentially not serious. Sustained atrial tachycardia and atrial fibrillation occurred in 7% and 13% of patients, respectively, and bradyarrhythmia and non-sustained or sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT) occurred in 25% and 57%, respectively. There were 18 deaths, of which 7 were sudden cardiac events: 3 bradyarrhythmias, 1 ventricular fibrillation, 1 myocardial infarction, and 2 undetermined. The presence of a long QTc (odds ratio [OR] = 7.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.01–26.35; p = 0.002), and the duration of the PR interval (OR = 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02–1.08; p < 0.001) were independently associated with bradyarrhythmias. Left ventricular dilatation (LVD) was independently associated with non-sustained VT (OR = 2.83; 95% CI, 1.01–7.96; p = 0.041).Conclusions:In medium-term follow-up of RTCs, ILR helped detect a high incidence of AE, most of which did not have clinical relevance. The PR interval and presence of long QTc were predictive of bradyarrhythmias, whereas LVD was predictive of non-sustained VT.

Genetic and Environmental Effects on the Abdominal Aortic Diameter Development

Abstract Background: Configuration of the abdominal aorta is related to healthy aging and a variety of disorders. Objectives: We aimed to assess heritable and environmental effects on the abdominal aortic diameter. Methods: 114 adult (69 monozygotic, 45 same-sex dizygotic) twin pairs (mean age 43.6 ± 16.3 years) underwent abdominal ultrasound with Esaote MyLab 70X ultrasound machine to visualize the abdominal aorta below the level of the origin of the renal arteries and 1-3 cm above the bifurcation. Results: Age- and sex-adjusted heritability of the abdominal aortic diameter below the level of the origin of the renal arteries was 40% [95% confidence interval (CI), 14 to 67%] and 55% above the aortic bifurcation (95% CI, 45 to 70%). None of the aortic diameters showed common environmental effects, but unshared environmental effects were responsible for 60% and 45% of the traits, respectively. Conclusions: Our analysis documents the moderate heritability and its segment-specific difference of the abdominal aortic diameter. The moderate part of variance was explained by unshared environmental components, emphasizing the importance of lifestyle factors in primary prevention. Further studies in this field may guide future gene-mapping efforts and investigate specific lifestyle factors to prevent abdominal aortic dilatation and its complications.

Predictors of Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence in Hyperthyroid and Euthyroid Patients

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia in adults, and is encountered in 10-15% of the patients with hyperthyroidism. Unless euthyroidism is restored, pharmacological or electrical cardioversion is controversial in patients with AF who remain hyperthyroid. Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of electrical cardioversion and predictors of AF recurrence in hyperthyroid and euthyroid patients. Methods: The study included 33 hyperthyroid (21 males) and 48 euthyroid (17 males) patients with persistent AF. The patients were sedated with intravenous midazolam before undergoing electrical cardioversion delivered by synchronized biphasic shocks. Rates of AF recurrence were recorded. Results: Mean follow-up was 23.63 ± 3.74 months in the hyperthyroid group and 22.78 ± 3.15 months in the euthyroid group (p = 0.51). AF recurred in 14 (43.8%) and 21 (44.7%) patients in each group, respectively (p = 0.93). Multivariate regression analysis in each group showed that AF duration was the only predictor of AF recurrence, with odds ratios of 1.38 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.05 - 1.82, p = 0.02) in the hyperthyroid group and 1.42 (95% CI = 1.05 - 1.91, p= 0.02) in the euthyroid group. Conclusion: Rates of long-term AF recurrence were similar in successfully cardioverted hyperthyroid and euthyroid patients. The only predictor of AF recurrence in both groups was AF duration.

Maternal Factors and Adverse Perinatal Outcomes in Women with Preeclampsia in Maceió, Alagoas

Abstract Background: Preeclampsia has been associated with several risk factors and events. However, it still deserves further investigation, considering the multitude of related factors that affect different populations. Objective: To evaluate the maternal factors and adverse perinatal outcomes in a cohort of pregnant women with preeclampsia receiving care in the public health network of the city of Maceió. Methods: Prospective cohort study carried out in 2014 in the public health network of the city with a sample of pregnant women calculated based on a prevalence of preeclampsia of 17%, confidence level of 90%, power of 80%, and ratio of 1:1. We applied a questionnaire to collect socioeconomic, personal, and anthropometric data, and retrieved perinatal variables from medical records and certificates of live birth. The analysis was performed with Poisson regression and chi-square test considering p values < 0.05 as significant. Results: We evaluated 90 pregnant women with preeclampsia (PWP) and 90 pregnant women without preeclampsia (PWoP). A previous history of preeclampsia (prevalence ratio [PR] = 1.57, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.47 - 1.67, p = 0.000) and black skin color (PR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.00 - 1.33, p = 0.040) were associated with the occurrence of preeclampsia. Among the newborns of PWP and PWoP, respectively, 12.5% and 13.1% (p = 0.907) were small for gestational age and 25.0% and 23.2% (p = 0.994) were large for gestational age. There was a predominance of cesarean delivery. Conclusion: Personal history of preeclampsia and black skin color were associated with the occurrence of preeclampsia. There was a high frequency of birth weight deviations and cesarean deliveries.

High Blood Pressure in Adolescents of Curitiba: Prevalence and Associated Factors

Abstract Background: Arterial hypertension is a major public health problem and has increased considerably in young individuals in past years. Thus, identifying factors associated with this condition is important to guide intervention strategies in this population. Objective: To determine high blood pressure prevalence and its associated factors in adolescents. Methods: A random sample of 1,242 students enrolled in public schools of the city of Curitiba (PR) was selected. Self-administered questionnaires provided family history of hypertension, daily energy expenditure, smoking habit, daily fat intake, and socioeconomic status. Waist circumference was measured following standardized procedures, and blood pressure was measured with appropriate cuffs in 2 consecutive days to confirm high blood pressure. Relative frequency and confidence interval (95%CI) indicated high blood pressure prevalence. Bivariate and multivariate analyses assessed the association of risk factors with high blood pressure. Results: The high blood pressure prevalence was 18.2% (95%CI 15.2-21.6). Individuals whose both parents had hypertension [odds ratio (OR), 2.22; 95%CI 1.28-3.85] and those with high waist circumference (OR, 2.1; 95%CI 1.34-3.28) had higher chances to develop high blood pressure. Conclusion: Positive family history of hypertension and high waist circumference were associated with high blood pressure in adolescents. These factors are important to guide future interventions in this population.

The stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity on the schistosomiasis transmission modeling - the sensitivity Analysis

A mathematical model is proposed to analyze the effects of acquired immunity on the transmission of schistosomiasis in the human host. From this model the prevalence curve dependent on four parameters can be obtained. These parameters were estimated fitting the data by the maximum likelihood method. The model showed a good retrieving capacity of real data from two endemic areas of schistosomiasis: Touros, Brazil (Schistosoma mansoni) and Misungwi, Tanzania (S. haematobium). Also, the average worm burden per person and the dispersion of parasite per person in the community can be obtained from the model. In this paper, the stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity assumption in the model are assessed in terms of the epidemiological variables as follows. Regarded to the prevalence curve, we calculate the confidence interval, and related to the average worm burden and the worm dispersion in the community, the sensitivity analysis (the range of the variation) of both variables with respect to their parameters is performed.

Microhabitat preferences of Biomphalaria pfeifferi and Lymnaea natalensis in a natural and a man-made habitat in Southeastern Tanzania

Schistosoma mansoni is an important human parasitic disease which is widespread throughout Africa. As Biomphalaria pfeifferi snails act as intermediate host, knowledge of their population ecology is an essential prerequisite towards understanding disease transmission. We conducted a field study and assessed the density and microhabitat preferences of B.pfeifferi in a natural habitat which was a residual pool of a river. Repeated removal collecting revealed a density of 26.6 [95% confidence interval (CI): 24.9-28.3] snails/m2. B.pfeifferi showed microhabitat preferences for shallow water (depths: 0-4cm). They were found most abundantly close to the shoreline (distances: 0-40cm), and preferred either plant detritus or bedrock as substratum. Lymnaea natalensis, a snail which may act as a host for human Fasciola gigantica, also occurred in this habitat with a density of 34.0 (95% CI: 24.7-43.3) snails/m2, and preferred significantly different microhabitats when compared to B.pfeifferi. Microhabitat selection by these snail species was also investigated in a man-made habitat nearby, which consisted of a flat layer of concrete fixed on the riverbed, covered by algae. Here, B.pfeifferi showed no preference for locations close to the shoreline, probably because the habitat had a uniform depth. We conclude that repeated removal collecting in shallow habitats provides reliable estimates of snail densities and that habitat changes through constructions may create favourable microhabitats and contribute to additional disease transmission.

Direct Sensitivity Test of the MB/BacT System

In order to evaluate the direct-method test of sensitivity to drugs used in the principal tuberculosis treatment regimes, in the Organon Teknika MB/BacT system, we tested 50 sputum samples positive to microscopy taken from patients with pulmonary tuberculosis and with clinical indications for an antibiogram, admitted sequentially for examination during the routine of the reference laboratory. The material was treated v/v with 23% trisodium phosphate solution, incubated for 24 h at 35°C, and neutralized v/v with 20% monosodium phosphate solution. The material was then centrifuged and the sediment inoculated into flasks containing Rifampin - 2 µg/ml, Isoniazid - 0.2 µg/ml, Pyrazinamide - 100 µg/ml, Ethambutol - 2.5 µg/ml, Ethionamide - 1.25 µg/ml, and Streptomycin - 2 µg/ml. The tests were evaluated using the indirect method in the BACTEC 460 TB (Becton Dickinson) system as the gold standard. The results showed that the Rifampin test performed best, i.e., 100% sensitivity at 95% Confidence Interval (82.2-100) and 100% specificity at 95% Confidence Interval (84.5-100), followed by Isoniazid and Pyrazinamide. In this experiment, 92% of the materials showed a final reading in 30 days; this period represents the time for primary isolation as well as the results of the sensitivity profile, and is within Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendations regarding time for performance of the antibiogram. The inoculated flasks showed no contamination during the experiment. The MB/BacT is shown to be a reliable, rapid, fully automated nonradiometric system for the tuberculosis antibiogram.

Evaluation of indirect susceptibility testing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis to the first- and second-line, and alternative drugs by the newer MB/BacT system

In order to evaluate the Organon Teknika MB/BacT system used for testing indirect susceptibility to the alternative drugs ofloxacin (OFLO), amikacin (AMI), and rifabutin (RIF), and to the usual drugs of standard treatment regimes such as rifampin (RMP), isoniazid (INH), pyrazinamide (PZA), streptomycin (SM), ethambutol (EMB), and ethionamide (ETH), cultures of clinical specimens from 117 patients with pulmonary tuberculosis under multidrug-resistant investigation, admitted sequentially for examination from 2001 to 2002, were studied. Fifty of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis cultures were inoculated into the gold-standard BACTEC 460 TB (Becton Dickinson) for studying resistance to AMI, RIF, and OFLO, and the remaining 67 were inoculated into Lowenstein Jensen (LJ) medium (the gold standard currently used in Brazil) for studying resistance to RMP, INH, PZA, SM, EMB, and ETH. We observed 100% sensitivity for AMI (80.8-100), RIF (80.8-100), and OFLO (78.1-100); and 100% specificity for AMI (85.4-100), RIF (85.4-100), and OFLO (86.7-100) compared to the BACTEC system. Comparing the results obtained in LJ we observed 100% sensitivity for RMP (80-100), followed by INH - 95% (81.8-99.1), EMB - 94.7% (71.9-99.7), and 100% specificity for all drugs tested except for PZA - 98.3 (89.5-99.9) at 95% confidence interval. The results showed a high level of accuracy and demonstrated that the fully automated, non-radiometric MB/BacT system is indicated for routine use in susceptibility testing in public health laboratories.

The prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 and hepatitis C virus among injection drug users who use high risk inner-city locales in Miami, Florida

In order to estimate the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) co-infection in hard-to-reach intravenous drug users, 199 subjects from high-risk inner-city locales, the so called "shooting galleries", were consented, interviewed, and tested in Miami, FL, US. Positive HIV-1 status was based on repeatedly reactive ELISA and confirmatory Western Blot. Positive HCV status was based on reactive ELISA and confirmatory polymerase chain reaction techniques. Overall, 50 (25%) were not infected with either virus, 61 (31%) were HIV-1/HCV co-infected, 17 (8%) infected by HIV-1 only, and 71 (36%) infected by HCV only. The results of the multivariable analyses showed that more years using heroin was the only significant risk factor for HCV only infection (odds ratio = 1.15; 95% confidence interval = 1.07, 1.24) and for HIV-1/HCV co-infection (odds ratio = 1.17; 95% confidence interval = 1.09, 1.26). This paper demonstrates that HIV-1/HCV co-infection is highly prevalent among so called "shooting galleries".

Dried blood spots as a practical and inexpensive source for human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis C virus surveillance

Passive surveillance of infectious diseases with a high percentage of asymptomatic cases or long incubation periods, such as acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), does not reflect the current transmission dynamics. Thus, a multi-strategic surveillance, such as the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) sentinel surveillance proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO), is necessary. The Brazilian HIV sentinel surveillance was started in May 1992 with this purpose. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the feasibility and costs of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) surveillance using dried blood spots (DBS) collected for neonatal screening of metabolic diseases in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. This was accomplished through the comparison of HIV and HCV seroprevalence with previous Brazilian studies. From December 2001 to June 2002, 24,905 newborns were tested for HIV and 4211 for HCV. HIV seroprevalence was 0.25% and the 95% confidence interval (CI) was 0.18, 0.31%; and HCV seroprevalence was 0.71% and the 95% CI was 0.46, 0.97%. These numbers are similar to previous Brazilian studies. Cost in this study was approximately US$ 3.10 per sample, which was roughly one third of the cost of the same exam at the Brazilian HIV sentinel surveillance. We conclude that it is possible and more cost-effective to use DBS for infectious diseases surveillance, albeit it is still necessary to compare these results with the usual sentinel methodology in a concomitant trial.

Diagnosis of Streptococcus pneumoniae meningitis by polymerase chain reaction amplification of the gene for pneumolysin

Diagnosis of bacterial meningitis has long been based on classical methods of Gram stain, serological tests, and culture of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). The performance of these methods, especially culture and direct smear, is thwarted by failure to detect bacteria following administration of antimicrobial agents and reluctance to performance lumbar punctures at admission. Indeed, patients with meningitis frequently receive antibiotics orally or by injection before the diagnosis is suspected or established. Thus an alternative method has become necessary to help clinicians and epidemiologists to management and control of bacterial meningitis. We evaluate the application of a polymerase chain reaction-based (PCR) assay for amplification of pneumolysin gene (ply) to diagnosis of Streptococcus pneumoniae meningitis. The PCR assay sensitivity for CSF was 96% (95% confidence interval, CI, 90-99%) compared to a sensitivity of 59% for culture (95% CI 49-69%), 66% for Gram stain (95% CI 56-74%), and 78% for latex agglutination test (95% CI 69-86%); PCR specificity was 100% (95% CI 83-100%). PCR results were available within 4 h of the start of the assay. This molecular approach proved to be reliable and useful to identify this bacterium compared with other classical laboratory methods for identification of bacterial meningitis pathogens.