Dry months in the agricultural region of Ribeirão Preto, state of São Paulo-Brazil: an study based on the extreme value theory

The application of the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to model the probability of occurrence of extreme low Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values leads to an increase of the knowledge related to the occurrence of extreme dry months. This sort of analysis can be carried out by means of two approaches: the block maxima (BM; associated with the General Extreme Value distribution) and the peaks-over-threshold (POT; associated with the Generalized Pareto distribution). Each of these procedures has its own advantages and drawbacks. Thus, the main goal of this study is to compare the performance of BM and POT in characterizing the probability of occurrence of extreme dry SPI values obtained from the weather station of Ribeirão Preto-SP (1937-2012). According to the goodness-of-fit tests, both BM and POT can be used to assess the probability of occurrence of the aforementioned extreme dry SPI monthly values. However, the scalar measures of accuracy and the return level plots indicate that POT provides the best fit distribution. The study also indicated that the uncertainties in the parameters estimates of a probabilistic model should be taken into account when the probability associated with a severe/extreme dry event is under analysis.

Use of interactive performance optimization for identifying the ideal profile of swine finishing producers

The present research aimed to develop a modeling capable of identifying the ideal profile of swine finishing producers using the interactive performance optimization, which began by verifying qualitative the criteria considered most relevant to the decision-making, generating a closed structured diagnosis that covers the socioeconomic aspects about the activity, until the design of a mathematical model able to translate the data obtained in quantitative information. For the verification, it was proposed a practical study for a universe of 120 members of a cooperative in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The results showed that, from the application and the definition of the ideal profile, it was possible to verify that 82 producers are in the group of those who have obtained a "Good" performance, and to 44 the result is in the range between 86% to 90% from the ideal, which means that most have short or medium-term conditions to evolve their status for the considered "Very Good", where only 12.5% of the producers are currently.

Momento ideal para a endarterectomia de carótida após um AVC recente

Vários estudos prospectivos de escolha aleatória confirmaram a eficácia da endarterectomia de carótida na prevenção de novos acidentes vasculares cerebrais (AVC) em pacientes sintomáticos com estenose grave na carótida. Entretanto, o timing da endarterectomia ainda é controverso. A cirurgia precoce pode estar associada à hemorragia intracerebral e à extensão do infarto inicial. A cirurgia tardia pode expor o paciente à recorrência do AVC e à oclusão da artéria carótida. Os estudos que avaliaram o intervalo de tempo para a endarterectomia são retrospectivos e não randomizados. Na ausência de um estudo prospectivo randomizado comparando endarterectomia precoce e tardia, uma abordagem para se interpretar os resultados das séries cirúrgicas é a comparação destes com a história natural do AVC isquêmico. Os autores descrevem os argumentos em favor da cirurgia precoce, a história natural do AVC isquêmico e os fatores de risco associados ao AVC no perioperatório da endarterectomia.

Traqueostomia percutânea: técnica ideal?

A traqueostomia percutânea tem substituído a traqueostomia convencional em muitas Unidades de Terapia Intensiva, devido à facilidade e segurança do método realizado à beira do leito, dispensando o transporte do paciente da Unidade de Terapia Intensiva para o Centro Cirúrgico. Alguns autores sugerem que a dissecção limitada resulta em menor dano tecidual, diminui o risco de sangramento e infecção de ferida operatória. Esta revisão visa analisar e sintetizar estudos prospectivos e randomizados, revisões sistemáticas e meta-análises, comparando a traqueostomia percutânea e traqueostomia convencional em pacientes adultos em Unidades de Terapia Intensiva.

The theory of constraints in manufacturing

In this paper, a systematic and quantitative view is presented for the application of the theory of constraints in manufacturing. This is done employing the operational research technique of mathematical programming. The potential of the theory of constraints in automated manufacturing is demonstrated.

Analysis of Regular and Irregular Dynamics of a Non Ideal Gear Rattling Problem

This paper presents a study on the dynamics of the rattling problem in gearboxes under non-ideal excitation. The subject has being analyzed by a number of authors such as Karagiannis and Pfeiffer (1991), for the ideal excitation case. An interesting model of the same problem by Moon (1992) has been recently used by Souza and Caldas (1999) to detect chaotic behavior. We consider two spur gears with different diameters and gaps between the teeth. Suppose the motion of one gear to be given while the motion of the other is governed by its dynamics. In the ideal case, the driving wheel is supposed to undergo a sinusoidal motion with given constant amplitude and frequency. In this paper, we consider the motion to be a function of the system response and a limited energy source is adopted. Thus an extra degree of freedom is introduced in the problem. The equations of motion are obtained via a Lagrangian approach with some assumed characteristic torque curves. Next, extensive numerical integration is used to detect some interesting geometrical aspects of regular and irregular motions of the system response.

On non-ideal and non-linear portal frame dynamics analysis using bogoliubov averaging method

We apply the Bogoliubov Averaging Method to the study of the vibrations of an elastic foundation, forced by a Non-ideal energy source. The considered model consists of a portal plane frame with quadratic nonlinearities, with internal resonance 1:2, supporting a direct current motor with limited power. The non-ideal excitation is in primary resonance in the order of one-half with the second mode frequency. The results of the averaging method, plotted in time evolution curve and phase diagrams are compared to those obtained by numerically integrating of the original differential equations. The presence of the saturation phenomenon is verified by analytical procedures.

A Modified phosphate-carrier protein theory is proposed as a non-target site mechanism For glyphosate resistance in weeds

Glyphosate is an herbicide that inhibits the enzyme 5-enolpyruvyl-shikimate-3-phosphate synthase (EPSPs) (EC 2.5.1.19). EPSPs is the sixth enzyme of the shikimate pathway, by which plants synthesize the aromatic amino acids phenylalanine, tyrosine, and tryptophan and many compounds used in secondary metabolism pathways. About fifteen years ago it was hypothesized that it was unlikely weeds would evolve resistance to this herbicide because of the limited degree of glyphosate metabolism observed in plants, the low resistance level attained to EPSPs gene overexpression, and because of the lower fitness in plants with an altered EPSPs enzyme. However, today 20 weed species have been described with glyphosate resistant biotypes that are found in all five continents of the world and exploit several different resistant mechanisms. The survival and adaptation of these glyphosate resistant weeds are related toresistance mechanisms that occur in plants selected through the intense selection pressure from repeated and exclusive use of glyphosate as the only control measure. In this paper the physiological, biochemical, and genetic basis of glyphosate resistance mechanisms in weed species are reviewed and a novel and innovative theory that integrates all the mechanisms of non-target site glyphosate resistance in plants is presented.

Conflicting genomes, the demic theory & biodiversity

Organismic-centered Darwinism, in order to use direct phenotypes to measure natural selection's effect, necessitates genome's harmony and uniform coherence plus large population sizes. However, modern gene-centered Darwinism has found new interpretations to data that speak of genomic incoherence and disharmony. As a result of these two conflicting positions a conceptual crisis in Biology has arisen. My position is that the presence of small, even pocket-size, demes is instrumental in generating divergence and phenotypic crisis. Moreover, the presence of parasitic genomes as in acanthocephalan worms, which even manipulate suicidal behavior in their hosts; segregation distorters that change meiosis and Mendelian ratios; selfish genes and selfish whole chromosomes, such as the case of B-chromosomes in grasshoppers; P-elements in Drosophila; driving Y-chromosomes that manipulate sex ratios making males more frequent, as in Hamilton's X-linked drive; male strategists and outlaw genes, are eloquent examples of the presence of real conflicting genomes and of a non-uniform phenotypic coherence and genome harmony. Thus, we are proposing that overall incoherence and disharmony generate disorder but also more biodiversity and creativeness. Finally, if genes can manipulate natural selection, they can multiply mutations or undesirable characteristics and even lethal or detrimental ones, hence the accumulation of genetic loads. Outlaw genes can change what is adaptively convenient even in the direction of the trait that is away from the optimum. The optimum can be "negotiated" among the variants, not only because pleiotropic effects demand it, but also, in some cases, because selfish, outlaw, P-elements or extended phenotypic manipulation require it. With organismic Darwinism the genome in the population and in the individual was thought to act harmoniously without conflicts, and genotypes were thought to march towards greater adaptability. Modern Darwinism has a gene-centered vision in which genes, as natural selection's objects can move in dissonance in the direction which benefits their multiplication. Thus, we have greater opportunities for genomes in permanent conflict.

Clinical signs of pneumonia in children: association with and prediction of diagnosis by fuzzy sets theory

The present study compares the performance of stochastic and fuzzy models for the analysis of the relationship between clinical signs and diagnosis. Data obtained for 153 children concerning diagnosis (pneumonia, other non-pneumonia diseases, absence of disease) and seven clinical signs were divided into two samples, one for analysis and other for validation. The former was used to derive relations by multi-discriminant analysis (MDA) and by fuzzy max-min compositions (fuzzy), and the latter was used to assess the predictions drawn from each type of relation. MDA and fuzzy were closely similar in terms of prediction, with correct allocation of 75.7 to 78.3% of patients in the validation sample, and displaying only a single instance of disagreement: a patient with low level of toxemia was mistaken as not diseased by MDA and correctly taken as somehow ill by fuzzy. Concerning relations, each method provided different information, each revealing different aspects of the relations between clinical signs and diagnoses. Both methods agreed on pointing X-ray, dyspnea, and auscultation as better related with pneumonia, but only fuzzy was able to detect relations of heart rate, body temperature, toxemia and respiratory rate with pneumonia. Moreover, only fuzzy was able to detect a relationship between heart rate and absence of disease, which allowed the detection of six malnourished children whose diagnoses as healthy are, indeed, disputable. The conclusion is that even though fuzzy sets theory might not improve prediction, it certainly does enhance clinical knowledge since it detects relationships not visible to stochastic models.

Selection of patients for myocardial perfusion scintigraphy based on fuzzy sets theory applied to clinical-epidemiological data and treadmill test results

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a worldwide leading cause of death. The standard method for evaluating critical partial occlusions is coronary arteriography, a catheterization technique which is invasive, time consuming, and costly. There are noninvasive approaches for the early detection of CAD. The basis for the noninvasive diagnosis of CAD has been laid in a sequential analysis of the risk factors, and the results of the treadmill test and myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS). Many investigators have demonstrated that the diagnostic applications of MPS are appropriate for patients who have an intermediate likelihood of disease. Although this information is useful, it is only partially utilized in clinical practice due to the difficulty to properly classify the patients. Since the seminal work of Lotfi Zadeh, fuzzy logic has been applied in numerous areas. In the present study, we proposed and tested a model to select patients for MPS based on fuzzy sets theory. A group of 1053 patients was used to develop the model and another group of 1045 patients was used to test it. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to compare the performance of the fuzzy model against expert physician opinions, and showed that the performance of the fuzzy model was equal or superior to that of the physicians. Therefore, we conclude that the fuzzy model could be a useful tool to assist the general practitioner in the selection of patients for MPS.

Ideal sweetness of mixed juices from Amazon fruits

Ready-to-drink fruit juices represent a large share of the market and are an important target for product development. The mixture of fruits can bring about improvements to nutritional and sensory aspects of these beverages while making used of the wide variety of exotic fruits from the Amazon region. Therefore, it is necessary to select mixed fruits and determine their ideal sweetness according to consumer acceptance. Consumers in the city of Belém (Brazil) evaluated five different concentrations of sugar using the just-about-right scale in two blends selected by preference ranking. For the cupuassu-acerola-açai blend, the optimum concentration of sugar was 9.5 g/100 mL, and for the soursop-camucamu-yellow mombin blend, it was 10.7 g/100 mL.

Development of pitanga nectar with different sweeteners by sensory analysis: ideal pulp dilution, ideal sweetness, and sweetness equivalence

The objective of this study was to develop pitanga nectar formulations in which sucrose was replaced with different sweeteners. Consumer tests were conducted with 50 fruit juice consumers, and a just-about-right scale was used to determine the ideal pulp dilution and ideal sweetness with sucrose. Furthermore, the adequate concentrations of six sweeteners were determined to obtain the equivalent sweetness of sucrose using relative to these concentrations the magnitude estimation model with 19 selected assessors. The ideal dilution test resulted in 25% pulp, and the ideal sweetness test, 10% sucrose. Sweetener concentrations to replace sucrose were 0.0160%, 0.0541%, 0.1000%, 0.0999%, 0.0017%, and 0.0360%, respectively, for sucralose, aspartame, stevia 40% rebaudioside A, stevia 95% rebaudioside A, neotame, and a 2:1 cyclamate/saccharin blend. These results can be used to prepare pitanga nectar with different sweeteners and obtain the same sweetness intensity in less caloric products than that of nectar prepared with sucrose.

Alternative banking: theory and evidence from Europe

Since financial liberalization in the 1980s, non-profit maximizing, stakeholder-oriented banks have outperformed private banks in Europe. This article draws on empirical research, banking theory and theories of the firm to explain this apparent anomaly for neo-liberal policy and contemporary market-based banking theory. The realization of competitive advantages by alternative banks (savings banks, cooperative banks and development banks) has significant implications for conceptions of bank change, regulation and political economy.

Global instability of currencies: reasons and perspectives according to the state-corporation hegemonic stability theory

This paper analyses reasons of the instability of the world monetary system. The author considers this problem from historical and contemporary perspectives. According to presented point of view banknotes and electronic money which replaced gold and silver coins in popular circulation are the most important reason of the instability. There are also proven positive and negative consequences of money instability. Reforms of the world monetary system need agreement within the global collective hegemony of state-powers and transnational corporations.