Por que a poupança externa não promove crescimento

Why foreign saving fail to cause growth. The present paper is a formalization of the critique of the growth with foreign savings strategy. Although medium income countries are capital poor, current account deficits (foreign savings), financed either by loans or by foreign direct investments, will not usually increase the rate of capital accumulation or will have little impact on it in so far as current account deficits will be associated with appreciated exchange rates, artificially increased real wages and salaries and high consumption levels. In consequence, the rate of substitution of foreign savings for domestic savings will be relatively high, and the country will get indebted to consume, not to invest and grow. Only when there are large investment opportunities, stimulated by a sizeable difference between the expected profit rate and the long term interest rate, the marginal propensity to consume will get down enough so that the additional income originated from foreign capital flows will be used for investment rather than for consumption. In this special case, the rate of substitution of foreign for domestic savings tend to be small, and foreign savings will contribute positively to growth.

External debt in developing economies: assessment and policy issues

More than one decade after the external debt restructuring (the Brady Plan), a great amount of literature has been published concerning the balance sheet factors in developing countries. The staff of international multilateral institutions joined with reputable academics in this great controversy. The external debt problem of the developing countries is back and once more reflections on its cause and on policy recommendations are analytically distinct. Our main task is to reflect on the recent external debt dynamics and assess how this debt has evolved. Our findings indicate that the susceptibility of some developing countries to default is associated with global imbalance, that is, the way they borrow.

National exchange rate policies and international debt crises: how Brazil did not follow Argentina into a default in 2001-2002

This paper examines how exchange rate policies and IMF Stand-By Arrangements affect debt crises using econometrics and a comparison between Argentina and Brazil. It refines an existing diagram outlining crisis development to propose crisis prevention strategies. Flexible exchange rate policies reduce a country's probability of default by over 4%, but Stand-By Arrangements increase it by an inconsequential percentage. Unlike Argentina, Brazil avoided a default via a freely-floating exchange rate system, fiscal deficit reduction, and a cooperative and coordinated relationship with the IMF. The results provide policymakers from developing countries with lessons to manage their countries' default risks more effectively.

Um modelo macrodinâmico pós-keynesiano de simulação

A post-keynesian macro-dynamic model of simulation. The objective of this article is to present the structure and the simulation results of a one-sector macro-dynamic model that embeds some elements of the post-keynesian theory. The computational simulation of the model replicates some important features of capitalist dynamics as the phenomenon of cyclical growth, the long-run stability of the profit rate and functional distribution of income, the maintenance of idle-capacity in the long-run and the occurrence of a single episode of deep fall in real economic activity, which is in accordance with the rarity character of great crashes in the history of capitalism. Moreover, the simulation results show that a great reduction in inflation rate will be followed by an increase of financial fragility, increasing the like-hood of a great depression. As a policy advice derived from the simulation results, we can state that the Central Bank should never promote big reductions in inflation rate.

As razões do laissez-faire: uma análise do ataque ao mercantilismo e da defesa da liberdade econômica na Riqueza das Nações

The reasons of the laissez-faire: an analysis of the attack to mercantilism and of the defense of economic liberty in The Wealth of Nations. The main reasons presented in The Wealth of Nations to advocate the system of economic liberty and reject mercantilism are analyzed. These two systems are evaluated considering basically their impact on the annual product, and the degree of liberty and justice they engender. Based on his views of man and of capital hierarchy, Smith defends the superiority of economic liberty in what concerns the growth of the annual product. This system is also considered superior to mercantilism in terms of justice since it does not privilege any sector of society and allows a great level of liberty to the individuals.

El éxito del Mercosur posible

The success of the possible Mercosur. Mercosur can be observed from two different perspectives. One from an ideal integration project, whose reference is the European Union. The other, based in the profound prevailing asymmetries within the region and the progress achieved since the founding bilateral agreements of presidents Alfonsin and Sarney, in 1985. From the first perspective, Mercosur in a failure; from the second, it has achieved considerable success. The integration process is displayed in three levels: the national density prevailing in the member countries, the rules of the game of the system and the common standings vis a vis the rest of the world. The future of Mercosur depends on progress achieved in these three levels and the opening of new possibilities of national development for each member country in a regional framework.

Escravidão "suave" no Brasil: Gilberto Freyre tinha razão?

This article examines the question of the supposedly benign character of Brazilian slavery in contrast with North America slavery. In economic analyses of slavery, coercion toward slaves is viewed as a means to achieve maximum output, especially in large-scale agriculture. In small slave holdings, however, coercion was generally inefficient for that purpose, and positive incentives tended to be preferred. It is argued that, as recent evidence on Brazil has shown that small slave holdings prevailed in various regions and periods, this may lend empirical support to the notion of a relatively benign slavery, using more incentives than coercion.

A industrialização da pauta de exportação brasileira entre 1964 e 1974: novos dados e índices para o comércio exterior brasileiro do período

This paper analyses the effects on Brazil's trade indices of the rising share of industrial products in Brazil's exports in the period from 1964 to 1974. New price and quantity indices of Fisher for Brazil's exports and imports of industrial and non-industrial goods have been especially constructed for this period, in order to obtain methodologically consistent series of indexes from 1964 to 2005. The market-share-constant model was applied to analyze the effects of different groups of products on Brazil's export revenues between 1964 and 1974.

Political economy of preferential trade agreement: the case of bilateral asymmetric negotiation

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the political economy of preferential trade agreements based on a sequential non-cooperative Stackelberg political game between a large economy and a small one, in which the political dispute of rival lobby groups defines the unilateral stance of both governments in the first stage; and the Stackelberg "coalition-proof" equilibrium defines the free trade agreement format in the second stage. Finally, a few modifications in the initial game structure are discussed in order to enhance the small economy's negotiation power. The political economy model is applied to FTAA case.

Modelos de crescimento kaleckianos: uma apreciação

The purpose of this article is to survey the main papers that founded a kaleckian approach of the economic growth. It presents a certain moment of the historical evolution of the non-neoclassical macrodynamics. This analysis can be understood under the political economy tradition in putting together social classes (capitalists and workers), distributive conflict and the relationship between distribution and accumulation.