Incubation period of Hemileia vastatrix in coffee plants in Brazil simulated under climate change

Risk analysis of climate change on plant diseases has great importance for agriculture since it allows the evaluation of management strategies to minimize future damages. This work aimed to simulate future scenarios of coffee rust (Hemileia vastatrix) epidemics by elaborating geographic distribution maps using a model that estimates the pathogen incubation period and the output from three General Circulation Models (CSIRO-Mk3.0, INM-CM3.0, and MIROC3.2.medres). The climatological normal from 1961-1990 was compared with that of the decades 2020s, 2050s and 2080s using scenarios A2 and B1 from the IPCC. Maps were prepared with a spatial resolution of 0.5 × 0.5 degrees of latitude and longitude for ten producing states in Brazil. The climate variables used were maximum and minimum monthly temperatures. The maps obtained in scenario A2 showed a tendency towards a reduction in the incubation period when future scenarios are compared with the climatological normal from 1961-1990. A reduction in the period was also observed in scenario B1, although smaller than that in scenario A2.

An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil

Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 ºC, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH > 90%); ii) medium risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH > 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease.

Effects of global climate changes on geographical distribution patterns of economically important plant species in cerrado

Different climate models, modeling methods and carbon emission scenarios were used in this paper to evaluate the effects of future climate changes on geographical distribution of species of economic and cultural importance across the Cerrado biome. As the results of several studies have shown, there are still many uncertainties associated with these projections, although bioclimatic models are still widely used and effective method to evaluate the consequences for biodiversity of these climate changes. In this article, it was found that 90% of these uncertainties are related to methods of modeling, although, regardless of the uncertainties, the results revealed that the studied species will reduce about 78% of their geographic distribution in Cerrado. For an effective work on the conservation of these species, many studies still need to be carried out, although it is already possible to observe that climate change will have a strong influence on the pattern of distribution of these species.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE VARIABLES, TRUNK GROWTH RATE AND WOOD DENSITY OF Eucalyptus grandis W. Mill ex Maiden TREES

ABSTRACT Climatic conditions stimulates the cambial activity of plants, and cause significant changes in trunk diameter growth and wood characteristics. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of climate variables in the diameter growth rate of the stem and the wood density of Eucalyptus grandis trees in different classes of the basal area. A total of 25 Eucalyptus trees at 22 months of age were selected according to the basal area distribution. Dendrometer bands were installed at the height of 1.30 meters (DBH) to monitor the diameter growth every 14 days, for 26 months. After measuring growth, the trees were felled and wood discs were removed at the DBH level to determine the radial density profile through x-ray microdensitometry and then re-scale the average values every 14 days. Climatic variables for the monitoring period were obtained and grouped every 14 days. The effect of the climate variables was determined by maximum and minimum growth periods in assessing trunk growth. These growth periods were related with precipitation, average temperature and relative air humidity. The re-scaled wood density values, calculated using the radial growth of the tree trunks measured accurately with steel dendrometers, enabled the determination of the relationship of small changes in wood density and the effect of the climatic variations and growth rate of eucalyptus tree trunks. A high sensitivity of the wood density to variation in precipitation levels was found.

Climate variations in greenhouse cultivated with gerbera and relationship with external conditions

Black meshes used in greenhouses provide shade to plants, affecting photosynthesis and presenting certain properties that change the microclimatic conditions in these environments. The objective of this study was to evaluate the variation in climate elements in greenhouse cultivated with gerbera (Gerbera jamesonii, Vr. Rambo) in relation to external conditions and the reference evapotranspiration (ETo) at Teresina, State of Piauí, Brazil. The measurements were obtained from July to October 2007 by an automatic data acquisition system installed inside and outside the greenhouse. The global solar radiation, evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were estimated. The results showed that major effect of the shading occurred on the mean air temperature during the 120 days, making it higher than the external environment. Inside the greenhouse, mean values of relative air humidity, reference evapotranspiração, global solar radiation and wind speed were lower compared to those outside the greenhouse.

Climate risk in maize crop in the northeastern of Brazil based on climate change scenarios

This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climatic risk in maize crop cultivated in the Northeastern of Brazil, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. The water balance model, combined with geospatial technologies, was used to identify areas of the study region where the crops could suffer yield restrictions due to climate change. The data used in the study were the time series of rainfall with at least 30 years of daily data, crop coefficients, potential evapotranspiration and duration of the crop cycle. The scenarios of the increasing of air temperature used in the simulations were of 1.5ºC, 3ºC and 5ºC. The sowing date of maize crop from January to March appears to be less affected by warming scenarios than the sowing in November and December or April and May.

Climate trends in the municipality of Pelotas, state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

ABSTRACTChanges in the frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events have been pointed out as a likely impact of global warming. In this context, this study aimed to detect climate change in series of extreme minimum and maximum air temperature of Pelotas, State of Rio Grande do Sul, (1896 - 2011) and its influence on the probability of occurrence of these variables. We used the general extreme value distribution (GEV) in its stationary and non-stationary forms. In the latter case, GEV parameters are variable over time. On the basis of goodness-of-fit tests and of the maximum likelihood method, the GEV model in which the location parameter increases over time presents the best fit of the daily minimum air temperature series. Such result describes a significant increase in the mean values of this variable, which indicates a potential reduction in the frequency of frosts. The daily maximum air temperature series is also described by a non-stationary model, whose location parameter decreases over time, and the scale parameter related to sample variance rises between the beginning and end of the series. This result indicates a drop in the mean of daily maximum air temperature values and increased dispersion of the sample data.

Spatialization of climate, physical and socioeconomic factors that affect the dairy goat production in Brazil and their impact on animal breeding decisions

Brazil has high climate, soil and environmental diversity, as well as distinct socioeconomic and political realities, what results in differences among the political administrative regions of the country. The objective of this study was to determine spatial distribution of the physical, climatic and socioeconomic aspects that best characterize the production of dairy goats in Brazil. Production indices of milk per goat, goat production, milk production, as well as temperature range, mean temperature, precipitation, normalized difference vegetation index, relative humidity, altitude, agricultural farms; farms with native pasture, farms with good quality pasture, farms with water resources, farms that receive technical guidance, family farming properties, non-familiar farms and the human development index were evaluated. The multivariate analyses were carried out to spatialize climatic, physical and socioeconomic variables and so differenciate the Brazilian States and Regions. The highest yields of milk and goat production were observed in the Northeast. The Southeast Region had the second highest production of milk, followed by the South, Midwest and North. Multivariate analysis revealed distinctions between clusters of political-administrative regions of Brazil. The climatic variables were most important to discriminate between regions of Brazil. Therefore, it is necessary to implement animal breeding programs to meet the needs of each region.

The seasonal and ovarian status effects on in vitro production of domestic cat embryos between Equator and Tropic of Capricorn

From the Tropic of Capricorn to Equator, the seasonality of domestic cat is known to be absent, i.e., these animals are considered non-seasonal breeders at these regions. We hypothesized that this particularity might have some influence on in vitro embryo production. The aim of this experiment was to determine the percentage of cleavage and morulae and blastocyst formation produced from oocytes recovered from queen ovaries of three distinct status - follicular, luteal or inactive - during two different reproductive seasons experienced by cats in southeast of Brazil (22°53'09" S and 48°26'42" W) - non breeding season (NBS), comprehending January to March; and breeding season (BS), August to October. Thirty queens were neutered. Ovaries were classified according to their status and were sliced in PBS for cumulus oocyte complex (COC) releasing. Grade I COC were washed three times in H-MEM supplemented with BSA, glutamine, sodium pyruvate, cysteine, streptomycin and penicillin. Oocytes were incubated in groups of 20-30 in 400µL of DMEM supplemented with FSH, LH, estradiol, IGF-I and basic fibroblast growth factor under mineral oil for 30 or 36 hours at 38°C in humidified environment of 5% de O2, 5% CO2 and 90% N2. COC were fertilized in Ham's F-10 medium supplemented with BSA, cysteine, pyruvate and streptomycin/penicillin (culture medium) with fresh semen selected through swim up technique. Eighteen hours later, the presumptive zygotes were denuded, the percentage of cleavage was determined and every 10 zygotes were transferred to 100mL drops of culture medium for culture during three days. After 72 hours of culture the percentage of morulae formation was evaluated and these structures were transferred to drops of the same culture medium. At the eighth day of culture blastocyst formation was analyzed. During NBS, from a total of 272 (inactive), 162 (luteal) and 134 (follicular) fertilized oocytes, the percentage of cleaved zygotes, morulae and blastocysts derived from inactive ovaries were 24.63, 16.54 and 8.09 respectively; for those derived from luteal ovaries, the percentage was 21.6, 12.96 and 8.64, and for those from follicular ovaries, they were 24.62, 16.41 and 8.21. Considering BS, from a total of 102 (inactive), 198 (luteal) and 86 (follicular) fertilized oocytes, the relative frequency (%) of cleaved zygotes, morulae and blastocysts derived from inactive ovaries were 64.7, 41.17 and 23.53 respectively; for those derived from luteal ovaries, the percentage was 64.14, 40.41 and 23.73, and for those from follicular ovaries, they were 63.95, 39.54 and 24.41. The results of this experiment demonstrate that no statistically significant difference (P<0.05) was verified in the frequency of cleaved embryos and morulae and blastocyst formation when comparing the three ovarian conditions in the same season. However the breeding season presented better results considering cleavage and morulae and blastocyst formation.

Climate, soil and tree flora relationships in forests in the state of São Paulo, southeastern Brasil

ABSTRACT - (Climate, soil and tree flora relationships in forests in the state of São Paulo, southteastern Brasil). With the aim of verifying possible influences of abiotic features on the spatial distribution of forest tree species and families, thirteen surveys in the state of São Paulo were selected, representing different conditions (localization at the extreme coordenates and altitudes, succesional stages, surveying methods). By applying Jaccard's Index to the binary matrices of 806 synonymized specific binomina and 79 families (Cronquist's system) phenograms were constructed using the method of the unweighted pair grouping by mathematical average (UPGMA). The species formed two floristic blocks: hygrophyllous (yearly rainfall greater than 2000 mm without dry season) and mesophyllous (yearly rainfall about 1400 mm with variable dry season). The latter was divided in two other groups: the high-altitudinal (median altitudes higher than 750 m, frost average frequency greater than 3 days/year) and low-altitudinal. Both mesophyllous floristic blocks were subdivided according to soil conditions (texture, eutrophism, acid or allic dystrophism, iron content). At the family level the relations were weak, but also showed the soil nutritional status as a possible constraint to the spatial partition of families.

Quality of 'Delta Valencia' orange grown in semiarid climate and stored under refrigeration after coating with wax

The effects of carnauba-based wax on the quality of 'Delta Valencia' orange produced in Ceará state, Brazil, were studied. The fruits were coated with carnauba-based wax and refrigerated (7 ± 2 ºC and 85 ± 2% R.H.) for 28 days. The quality attribute parameters assessed were weight loss, peel color (brightness, hue angle, and chromaticity), peel moisture, pH, soluble solids (SS), titratable acidity (TA), SS/TA ratio, ascorbic acid, total soluble sugars, reducing sugars, yellow flavonoids, and polyphenols. The results showed that 'Delta Valencia' oranges grown in the dry climate of Ceará state has excellent quality. The coated fruits lost mass at a lower rate than the the control fruits. No significant loss of soluble solids, titratable acidity, pH, and SS/TA ratio was observed, while ascorbic acid, soluble sugars, reducing sugars, yellow flavonoids, and polyphenols increased during storage in both the coated and control fruits. Carnauba-based wax coated fruits showed no signal of dehydration keeping their shiny green peel up to the end of the storage. The use of coating was crucial for the maintenance of visual quality by reducing mass loss, as well as keeping peel moisture.