53 resultados para forecast deviation


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Schistosomal myeloradiculopathy (SMR) is a form of schistosomiasis that is not linked with a high worm burden but rather is found in patients who have been sporadically exposed to Schistosoma mansoni. This paper aims to determine the occurrence of SMR in a low-endemic area with urban transmission in Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil. A retrospective study was performed, identifying confirmed cases in the two largest public hospitals on the region. Patients were diagnosed with SMR using standardised criteria, common clinical parameters, evidence of schistosomal infection and exclusion of other causes of myelopathy. A total of 27 patients were identified; 19 (85.2%) were men and four (14.8%) were women, ranging from 13-57 years of age (mean = 31.2; standard deviation = 12.8). Patients were classified as autochthonous (n = 14; 51.9%) or allochthonous (n = 11; 40.7%) and epidemiological data could not be obtained for two patients (7.4%). The clinical parameters of these patients were not different from previous studies. The sensitivity of serum immune reactions, cerebrospinal fluid immune reactions and parasitological stool examinations in identifying infected individuals was 87.5%, 93.8% and 40%, respectively. The epidemiological importance of these findings and their relationship with the control policies of schistosomiasis are discussed.

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Geographical Information System (GIS) is a tool that has recently been applied to better understand spatial disease distributions. Using meteorological, social, sanitation, mollusc distribution data and remote sensing variables, this study aimed to further develop the GIS technology by creating a model for the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis and to apply this model to an area with rural tourism in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais (MG). The Estrada Real, covering about 1,400 km, is the largest and most important Brazilian tourism project, involving 163 cities in MG with different schistosomiasis prevalence rates. The model with three variables showed a R² = 0.34, with a standard deviation of risk estimated adequate for public health needs. The main variables selected for modelling were summer vegetation, summer minimal temperature and winter minimal temperature. The results confirmed the importance of Remote Sensing data and the valuable contribution of GIS in identifying priority areas for intervention in tourism regions which are endemic to schistosomiasis.

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Myxidium volitans sp. nov. (Myxozoa: Myxidiidae) parasitizing the hypertrophied green-brownish gallbladder of the teleost Dactylopterus volitans, collected in the Atlantic coast near Niterói, Brazil was described based on ultrastructural studies. The spores were fusiform, sometimes slightly crescent-shaped on average 21.7 ± 0.3 µm (mean ± standard deviation) (n = 50) long and 5.6 ± 0.4 µm (n = 30) wide. The spore wall was thin and smooth, comprising two equally-sized valves joined by a hardly visible sutural ridge. Spores containing two pyriform polar capsules (PC) (5.0 ± 0.4 × 2.3 ± 0.3 µm) (n = 30) are situated in each extremity of the spore. The PC wall was composed of hyaline layer (0.20-0.29 µm thick) and by a thin external granular layer. Each PC contains a polar filament (PF) with irregular arrangements that was projected from its apical region to the bases of PC and coiled laterally from bases to the tip of PC. Some regular striations and S-like structures in the periphery of the PFs with four-five irregular sections were observed. Based on the spore morphology, ultrastructural differences and the specificity of the host we describe this parasite as a new myxosporidian, named M. volitans sp. nov.

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Risk factor surveillance is a complementary tool of morbidity and mortality surveillance that improves the likelihood that public health interventions are implemented in a timely fashion. The aim of this study was to identify population predictors of malaria outbreaks in endemic municipalities of Colombia with the goal of developing an early warning system for malaria outbreaks. We conducted a multiple-group, exploratory, ecological study at the municipal level. Each of the 290 municipalities with endemic malaria that we studied was classified according to the presence or absence of outbreaks. The measurement of variables was based on historic registries and logistic regression was performed to analyse the data. Altitude above sea level [odds ratio (OR) 3.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34-9.98], variability in rainfall (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.40-2.44) and the proportion of inhabitants over 45 years of age (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.08-0.38) were factors associated with malaria outbreaks in Colombian municipalities. The results suggest that environmental and demographic factors could have a significant ability to predict malaria outbreaks on the municipal level in Colombia. To advance the development of an early warning system, it will be necessary to adjust and standardise the collection of required data and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast models.

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While human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 chemokine co-receptors 5 tropism and the GWGR motif in the envelope third variable region (V3 loop) have been associated with a slower disease progression, their influence on antiretroviral response remains unclear. The impact of baseline V3 characteristics on treatment response was evaluated in a randomised, double blind, prospective cohort study with patients initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy with lopinavir or efavirenz plus azithothymidine/3TC (1:1) over 48 weeks. Similar virological and immunological responses were observed for both treatment regimens. The 43 individuals had a mean baseline CD4 T cell count of 119 cells/mm³ [standard deviation (SD) = 99] and a mean viral load of 5.09 log10 copies/mL (SD = 0.49). The GWGR motif was not associated with a CD4 T cell response, but predicted R5 tropism by the geno2pheno[clinical20%] algorithm correlated with higher CD4 T cell levels at all monitoring points (p < 0.05). Moreover, higher false-positive rates (FPR) values from this analysis revealed a strong correlation with CD4 T cell recovery (p < 0.0001). Transmitted drug resistance mutations, documented in 3/41 (7.3%) cases, were unrelated to the assigned antiretroviral regimen and had no impact on patient outcomes. In conclusion, naÏve HIV-1 R5 infected patients exhibited higher CD4 T cell counts at baseline; this difference was sustained throughout therapy. The geno2pheno[clinical] option FPR positively correlated with CD4 T cell gain and may be useful in predicting CD4 T cell recovery.

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The relationships between environmental exposure to risk agents and health conditions have been studied with the aid of remote sensing imagery, a tool particularly useful in the study of vegetation cover. This study aims to evaluate the influence of environmental variables on the spatial distribution of the abundance of Lutzomyia longipalpis and the reported canine and human visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases at an urban area of Campo Grande, state of Mato Grosso do Sul. The sandfly captures were performed in 13 residences that were selected by raffle considering four residences or collection station for buffer. These buffers were generated from the central house with about 50, 100 and 200 m from it in an endemic area of VL. The abundance of sandflies and human and canine cases were georreferenced using the GIS software PCI Geomatica. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and percentage of land covered by vegetation were the environmental variables extracted from a remote sensing IKONOS-2 image. The average NDVI was considered as the complexity of habitat and the standard deviation as the heterogeneity of habitat. One thousand three hundred sixty-seven specimens were collected during the catch. We found a significant positive linear correlation between the abundance of sandflies and the percentage of vegetation cover and average NDVI. However, there was no significant association between habitat heterogeneity and the abundance of these flies.

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Leprosy in children is correlated with community-level factors, including the recent presence of disease and active foci of transmission in the community. We performed clinical and serological examinations of 1,592 randomly selected school children (SC) in a cross-sectional study of eight hyperendemic municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon Region. Sixty-three (4%) SC, with a mean age of 13.3 years (standard deviation = 2.6), were diagnosed with leprosy and 777 (48.8%) were seropositive for anti-phenolic glycolipid-I (PGL-I). Additionally, we evaluated 256 house-hold contacts (HHCs) of the students diagnosed with leprosy; 24 (9.4%) HHC were also diagnosed with leprosy and 107 (41.8%) were seropositive. The seroprevalence of anti-PGL-I was significantly higher amongst girls, students from urban areas and students from public schools (p < 0.0001). Forty-five (71.4%) new cases detected amongst SC were classified as paucibacillary and 59 (93.6%) patients did not demonstrate any degree of physical disability at diagnosis. The results of this study suggest that there is a high rate of undiagnosed leprosy and subclinical infection amongst children in the Amazon Region. The advantages of school surveys in hyperendemic areas include identifying leprosy patients at an early stage when they show no physical disabilities, preventing the spread of the infection in the community and breaking the chain of transmission.

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Objective To identify the association between perineal trauma and pain in 473 primiparous women. Method Cross-sectional study in which pain was measured by the numerical pain scale (0 to 10 - 0 being no pain and 10 maximal pain). Results The prevalence and mean intensity of pain were 33.0% and 4.7 points (standard deviation = 2.0) in the numeric scale, respectively. Episiotomy represented the most frequent trauma (46.7%). The occurrence and intensity of the pain were associated with perineal trauma and postpartum time. Having perineal trauma tripled the chance of pain. Each hour elapsed following the birth reduced the chance of pain by 4.8%. Conclusion Primiparous women are subject to a high frequency of perineal trauma, with episiotomy being the most prominent. Perineal pain affects approximately one-third of primiparous women and is associated with the postpartum time and perineal traumas.