55 resultados para epidemic model


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This research characterizes the acute and chronic phases of Chagas ' disease in hamster through parasitological and histopathological studies. The acute phase was achieved with 44 young hamsters injected intraperitoneally with 100.000 blood trypomastigotes of Benedito and Y strains of T. cruzi. The chronic phase was induced in 46 hamsters injected intraperitoneally with 35.000 trypomastigotes ofVicentina, Benedito and Y strains. Animals were sacrificed at regular intervals of 24 hours of acute phase and from the 3rd to the 10th month of infection ofchronic phase. In the acute phase, parasites were easily recoveredfrom all animals and there was an inflammatory reaction characterized by mononuclear and polymorphous leukocyte infiltration of variable degree in the majority of tissues and organs, specially in the connective loose and fatty tissues, smooth muscle myocardium and skeletal muscle. In the chronic phase the lesions occurred in the same tissues and organs, but the inflammatory response was less severe and characterized by mononuclear infiltration mainly with focal or zonalfibrosis in the myocardiun. In 50% of infected animals parasites were found inmyocardiun and recoveredfrom pericardic, peritoneal and ascitic fluids in some animals. Signs of heart failure, sudden death and enlargement of bowel were observed regularly. We concluded that the hamster is an useful model for Chagas' disease studies.

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New therapeutic alternatives against leishmaniasis remain a priority. The activity of azithromycin against Leishmania (Leishmania) major has been previously demonstrated. Different responses among species of Leishmania make species-specific drug screening necessary. The activity of azithromycin against Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis and Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis was evaluated in golden hamsters infected through footpad injections of metacyclic promastigotes, and compared with untreated controls and animals treated with meglumine antimoniate. Footpad thickness, lesion cultures and dissemination sites were analyzed. Treatment of golden hamsters with oral azithromycin at 450mg/kg had no activity against infections with Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis. For infections due to Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis, azithromycin demonstrated significant activity relative to untreated controls, but inferior to meglumine antimoniate, for controlling lesion size. Neither drug was able to totally eliminate parasites from the lesions. It was concluded that azithromycin has activity against Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis but not against Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in this model.

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The association between depression and cardiovascular disease is well documented. Nevertheless, the process through which they are linked remains unknown, as does the direction of this relationship. Studies have suggested both that depression is a risk factor for heart disease and that heart disease is a risk factor for depression. A number of studies have established that a relationship exists between depression and inflammation, with alterations in the levels of inflammatory markers (IL-1, IL-6, TNF-alpha and others). Depressive symptoms have also been identified in many diseases characterized by inflammatory processes e.g. rheumatoid arthritis, bronchial asthma, diabetes, tuberculosis and cardiovascular diseases. In this brief viewpoint, we explain and propose how to use Chagas disease, a disorder characterized by inflammatory processes and leading to cardiovascular and autonomic problems, as a model for studying the directionality of the relationship between heart disease and depression.

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INTRODUCTION: The case definition of influenza-like illness (ILI) is a powerful epidemiological tool during influenza epidemics. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted to evaluate the impact of two definitions used as epidemiological tools, in adults and children, during the influenza A H1N1 epidemic. Patients were included if they had upper respiratory samples tested for influenza by real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction during two periods, using the ILI definition (coughing + temperature > 38ºC) in period 1, and the definition of severe acute respiratory infection (ARS) (coughing + temperature > 38ºC and dyspnoea) in period 2. RESULTS: The study included 366 adults and 147 children, covering 243 cases of ILI and 270 cases of ARS. Laboratory confirmed cases of influenza were higher in adults (50%) than in children (21.6%) ( p < 0.0001) and influenza infection was more prevalent in the ILI definition (53%) than ARS (24.4%) (p < 0.0001). Adults reported more chills and myalgia than children (p = 0.0001). Oseltamivir was administered in 58% and 46% of adults and children with influenza A H1N1, respectively. The influenza A H1N1 case fatality rate was 7% in adults and 8.3% in children. The mean time from onset of illness until antiviral administration was 4 days. CONCLUSIONS: The modification of ILI to ARS definition resulted in less accuracy in influenza diagnosis and did not improve the appropriate time and use of antiviral medication.

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INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

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INTRODUCTION: For a long time, the importance of Chagas disease in Mexico, where many regarded it as an exotic malady, was questioned. Considering the great genetic diversity among isolates of Trypanosoma cruzi, the importance of this biological characterization, and the paucity of information on the clinical and biological aspects of Chagas disease in Mexico, this study aimed to identify the molecular and biological characterization of Trypanosoma cruzi isolates from different endemic areas of this country, especially of the State of Jalisco. METHODS: Eight Mexican Trypanosoma cruzi strains were biologically and genetically characterized (PCR specific for Trypanosoma cruzi, multiplex-PCR, amplification of space no transcript of the genes of the mini-exon, amplification of polymorphic regions of the mini-exon, classification by amplification of intergenic regions of the spliced leader genes, RAPD - (random amplified polymorphic DNA). RESULTS: Two profiles of parasitaemia were observed, patent (peak parasitaemia of 4.6×10(6) to 10(7) parasites/mL) and subpatent. In addition, all isolates were able to infect 100% of the animals. The isolates mainly displayed tropism for striated (cardiac and skeletal) muscle. PCR amplification of the mini-exon gene classified the eight strains as TcI. The RAPD technique revealed intraspecies variation among isolates, distinguishing strains isolated from humans and triatomines and according to geographic origin. CONCLUSIONS: The Mexican T. cruzi strains are myotrophic and belong to group TcI.

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INTRODUCTION: The diagnosis of dengue and the differentiation between primary and secondary infections are important for monitoring the spread of the epidemic and identifying the risk of severe forms of the disease. The detection of immunoglobulin (Ig)M and IgG antibodies is the main technique for the laboratory diagnosis of dengue. The present study assessed the application of a rapid test for dengue concerning detection of new cases, reinfection recognition, and estimation of the epidemic attack rate. METHODS: This was a retrospective, cross-sectional, descriptive study on dengue using the Fortaleza Health Municipal Department database. The results from 1,530 tested samples, from 2005-2006, were compared with data from epidemiological studies of dengue outbreaks in 1996, 2003, and 2010. RESULTS: The rapid test confirmed 52% recent infections in the tested patients with clinical suspicion of dengue: 40% detected using IgM and 12% of new cases using IgG in the non-reactive IgM results. The positive IgM plus negative IgG (IgM+ plus IgG-) results showed that 38% of those patients had a recent primary dengue infection, while the positive IgG plus either positive or negative IgM (IgG+ plus IgM+/-) results indicated that 62% had dengue for at least a second time (recent secondary infections). This proportion of reinfections permitted us to estimate the attack rate as >62% of the population sample. CONCLUSIONS: The rapid test for dengue has enhanced our ability to detect new infections and to characterize them into primary and secondary infections, permitting the estimation of the minimal attack rate for a population during an outbreak.

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Introduction The prognosis of dengue depends on early diagnosis and treatment, which can help prevent severe forms whose characteristics were evaluated here. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted involving dengue cases in Vitória, State of Espírito Santo, Brazil, in 2011. Results Two health regions registered 56.3% of 371 cases of severe dengue. Of these cases, 21.3% presented with dengue hemorrhagic fever. There were associations between dengue hemorrhagic fever with younger ages and a longer time before receiving care. Conclusions There was a greater involvement of dengue hemorrhagic fever in young people. Delay in care, poor urban quality and high endemicity were identified as possible risk factors for dengue severity.