62 resultados para Two-state Potts model
Resumo:
Two new species of Lachesilla in species groups riegeli and forcepeta (Psocodea, 'Psocoptera', Lachesillidae), from the state of Bahia, Brazil.Two new species of Lachesilla from the Brazilian state of Bahia are here described and illustrated. Lachesilla cladoclaspers sp. nov., in species group riegeli, was collected in the Chapada Diamantina, Lachesilla nilopecanhensis sp. nov., in species group forcepeta, was collected in Nilo Peçanha, southern Bahia.
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Intensification of agricultural production without a sound management and regulations can lead to severe environmental problems, as in Western Santa Catarina State, Brazil, where intensive swine production has caused large accumulations of manure and consequently water pollution. Natural resource scientists are asked by decision-makers for advice on management and regulatory decisions. Distributed environmental models are useful tools, since they can be used to explore consequences of various management practices. However, in many areas of the world, quantitative data for model calibration and validation are lacking. The data-intensive distributed environmental model AgNPS was applied in a data-poor environment, the upper catchment (2,520 ha) of the Ariranhazinho River, near the city of Seara, in Santa Catarina State. Steps included data preparation, cell size selection, sensitivity analysis, model calibration and application to different management scenarios. The model was calibrated based on a best guess for model parameters and on a pragmatic sensitivity analysis. The parameters were adjusted to match model outputs (runoff volume, peak runoff rate and sediment concentration) closely with the sparse observed data. A modelling grid cell resolution of 150 m adduced appropriate and computer-fit results. The rainfall runoff response of the AgNPS model was calibrated using three separate rainfall ranges (< 25, 25-60, > 60 mm). Predicted sediment concentrations were consistently six to ten times higher than observed, probably due to sediment trapping along vegetated channel banks. Predicted N and P concentrations in stream water ranged from just below to well above regulatory norms. Expert knowledge of the area, in addition to experience reported in the literature, was able to compensate in part for limited calibration data. Several scenarios (actual, recommended and excessive manure applications, and point source pollution from swine operations) could be compared by the model, using a relative ranking rather than quantitative predictions.
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The impact of wood loads on bulk density and preconsolidation pressure and of harvester and forwarder traffic on rut depth, bulk density and preconsolidation pressure of two Ultisols were examined in this study. Our objective was to quantify the threshold beyond which significant soil compaction and rutting would occur. This study was carried out in the county of Eunápolis, state of Bahia, Brazil, (16 º 23 ' 17 '' S and 39 º 10 ' 06 '' W; altitude 80 m asl) in two Ultisols (PAd2 and PAd3) with different texture classes, in experimental areas with eucalypt plantation. The study involved measurements at the wood load site and machine driving at specific locations in the forest during logging operations. The treatments consisted of one harvester pass and, 8, 16 and 40 passes of a fully loaded forwarder. Thresholds were established based on the rut depth and percentage of preconsolidation pressure values in the region of additional soil compaction defined in the bearing capacity model. The percentage of soil samples with values of preconsolidation pressure in the region of additional soil compaction indicated a greater susceptibility of PAd3 than of PAd2 to soil compaction. The threshold levels established here based on preconsolidation pressure and rut depth indicated that no more than eight forwarder passes should be allowed in loading operations in order to minimize soil compaction.
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Soil organic matter (SOM) plays an important role in carbon (C) cycle and soil quality. Considering the complexity of factors that control SOM cycling and the long time it usually takes to observe changes in SOM stocks, modeling constitutes a very important tool to understand SOM cycling in forest soils. The following hypotheses were tested: (i) soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks would be higher after several rotations of eucalyptus than in low-productivity pastures; (ii) SOC values simulated by the Century model would describe the data better than the mean of observations. So, the aims of the current study were: (i) to evaluate the SOM dynamics using the Century model to simulate the changes of C stocks for two eucalyptus chronosequences in the Rio Doce Valley, Minas Gerais State, Brazil; and (ii) to compare the C stocks simulated by Century with the C stocks measured in soils of different Orders and regions of the Rio Doce Valley growing eucalyptus. In Belo Oriente (BO), short-rotation eucalyptus plantations had been cultivated for 4.0; 13.0, 22.0, 32.0 and 34.0 years, at a lower elevation and in a warmer climate, while in Virginópolis (VG), these time periods were 8.0, 19.0 and 33.0 years, at a higher elevation and in a milder climate. Soil samples were collected from the 0-20 cm layer to estimate C stocks. Results indicate that the C stocks simulated by the Century model decreased after 37 years of poorly managed pastures in areas previously covered by native forest in the regions of BO and VG. The substitution of poorly managed pastures by eucalyptus in the early 1970´s led to an average increase of C of 0.28 and 0.42 t ha-1 year-1 in BO and VG, respectively. The measured C stocks under eucalyptus in distinct soil Orders and independent regions with variable edapho-climate conditions were not far from the values estimated by the Century model (root mean square error - RMSE = 20.9; model efficiency - EF = 0.29) despite the opposite result obtained with the statistical procedure to test the identity of analytical methods. Only for lower soil C stocks, the model over-estimated the C stock in the 0-20 cm layer. Thus, the Century model is highly promising to detect changes in C stocks in distinct soil orders under eucalyptus, as well as to indicate the impact of harvest residue management on SOM in future rotations.
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A conceptual framework for crop production efficiency was derived using thermodynamic efficiency concept, in order to generate a tool for performance evaluation of agricultural systems and to quantify the interference of determining factors on this performance. In Thermodynamics, efficiency is the ratio between the output and input of energy. To establish this relationship in agricultural systems, it was assumed that the input energy is represented by the attainable crop yield, as predicted through simulation models based on environmental variables. The method of FAO's agroecological zones was applied to the assessment of the attainable sugarcane yield, while Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) data were used as observed yield. Sugarcane efficiency production in São Paulo state was evaluated in two growing seasons, and its correlation with some physical factors that regulate production was calculated. A strong relationship was identified between crop production efficiency and soil aptitude. This allowed inferring the effect of agribusiness factors on crop production efficiency. The relationships between production efficiency and climatic variables were also quantified and indicated that solar radiation, annual rainfall, water deficiency, and maximum air temperature are the main factors affecting the sugarcane production efficiency.
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Over the past two decades, soil ecotoxicologists have made strides in utilizing the basic concepts and advancements in soil zoology and ecology. They have applied the existing tools, and developed new ones to investigate how chemical contamination can affect soil ecosystems, including the degradation or destruction of soil quality and habitats or the diminishment of belowground biodiversity. Soil ecotoxicologists are applying a suite of standard protocols, originally developed as laboratory tests with single chemicals (e.g., pesticides), and further enhancing both the approaches and protocols for the assessment of contaminated lands. However, ecological relevance of some approaches remains unresolved. The authors discuss the main challenges for a coherent ecotoxicological assessment of soil ecosystems amid contaminated lands, and provide recommendations on how to integrate the effects of physical and chemical soil properties, the variations in the diversity of soil invertebrates, and the interactions among organisms of various trophic levels. The review examines new international approaches and test methods using examples from three continents (in particular research conducted in Brazil), and provides recommendations for improving ecological relevance of ecotoxicological investigations of contaminated lands.
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The objective of this work was to analyze future scenarios for palisade grass yield subjected to climate change for the state of São Paulo, Brazil. An empirical crop model was used to estimate yields, according to growing degree-days adjusted by one drought attenuation factor. Climate data from 1963 to 2009 of 23 meteorological stations were used for current climate conditions. Downscaled outputs of two general circulation models were used to project future climate for the 2013-2040 and 2043-2070 periods, considering two contrasting scenarios of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (high and low). Annual dry matter yield should be from 14 to 42% higher than the current one, depending on the evaluated scenario. Yield variation between seasons (seasonality) and years is expected to increase. The increase of dry matter accumulation will be higher in the rainy season than in the dry season, and this result is more evident for soils with low-water storage capacity. The results varied significantly between regions (<10% to >60%). Despite their higher climate potential, warmer regions will probably have a lower increase in future forage production.
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A model to estimate damage caused by gray leaf spot of corn (Cercospora zea-maydis) was developed from experimental field data gathered during the summer seasons of 2000/01 and during the second crop season [January-seedtime] of 2001, in the southwest of Goiás state. Three corn hybrids were grown over two seasons and on two sites, resulting in 12 experimental plots. A disease intensity gradient (lesions per leaf) was generated through application, three times over the season, of five different doses of the fungicide propiconazol. From tasseling onward, disease intensity on the ear leaf (El), and El - 1, El - 2, El + 1, and El + 2, was evaluated weekly. A manual harvest at the physiological ripening stage was followed by grain drying and cleaning. Finally, grain yield in kg.ha-1 was estimated. Regression analysis, performed between grain yield and all combinations of the number of lesions on each leaf type, generated thirty linear equations representing the damage function. To estimate losses caused by different disease intensities at different corn growth stages, these models should first be validated. Damage coefficients may be used in determining the economic damage threshold.
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Seasonally inundated native forest fragments ("ipucas") located in natural landform depression swales of the Araguaian Plain are currently under land use pressure. Their composition needs to be better understood to guarantee their protection. This comparative study of fragments under different land use conditions was carried out at Lago Verde Farm, Lagoa da Confusão,Tocantins, Brazil. The location coordinates are UTM 643586 and 644060 East and 8792795 and 8799167 North. This study aimed to first analyze and compare the floristic composition of two seasonally inundated forest fragments of approximately one hectare each. The first is located in an intact (without human intervention) Gramineous-Woody Savanna region and the second in a rice cultivation region. The floristic composition of both fragments was then compared to that of other wetland forests located in the Northern, Central Western and Southeastern regions of Brazil.All the floristic compositions are affected by seasonal flooding and soil water saturation. The floristic inventory used a census method that sampled all trees and shrubs with perimeter at 1.30 m from soil (PAP) = 15cm; 665 individuals, 33 families and 49 species were recorded for the intact region and 807 individuals, 35 families and 70 species for the altered region fragment. The values of H' = 0.806 (Shannon-Weaver) and J = 3.44 nats /individual (equability) for the fragment in the region affected by rice cultivation are considered high compared to the intact region fragment values (H' = 0.761 and J = 2.97). Families contributing to floristic richness in the altered region fragment were Fabaceae (9 species), Vochysiaceae (6) and Annonaceae (4). In the intact region fragment, Fabaceae also presented the largest number of species (8) followed by Arecaceae, Chrysobalanaceae and Vochysiaceae (3 each). When comparing the forests from various regions in Brazil, floristic similarity was found to be small. Greater similarity was found when indices for the two Lagoa da Confusão fragments were compared to riparian forests located in the Federal District of Brasilia.
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For an accurate use of pesticide leaching models it is necessary to assess the sensitivity of input parameters. The aim of this work was to carry out sensitivity analysis of the pesticide leaching model PEARL for contrasting soil types of Dourados river watershed in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Sensitivity analysis was done by carrying out many simulations with different input parameters and calculating their influence on the output values. The approach used was called one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis, which consists in varying independently input parameters one at a time and keeping all others constant with the standard scenario. Sensitivity analysis was automated using SESAN tool that was linked to the PEARL model. Results have shown that only soil characteristics influenced the simulated water flux resulting in none variation of this variable for scenarios with different pesticides and same soil. All input parameters that showed the greatest sensitivity with regard to leached pesticide are related to soil and pesticide properties. Sensitivity of all input parameters was scenario dependent, confirming the need of using more than one standard scenario for sensitivity analysis of pesticide leaching models.
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The application of the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to model the probability of occurrence of extreme low Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values leads to an increase of the knowledge related to the occurrence of extreme dry months. This sort of analysis can be carried out by means of two approaches: the block maxima (BM; associated with the General Extreme Value distribution) and the peaks-over-threshold (POT; associated with the Generalized Pareto distribution). Each of these procedures has its own advantages and drawbacks. Thus, the main goal of this study is to compare the performance of BM and POT in characterizing the probability of occurrence of extreme dry SPI values obtained from the weather station of Ribeirão Preto-SP (1937-2012). According to the goodness-of-fit tests, both BM and POT can be used to assess the probability of occurrence of the aforementioned extreme dry SPI monthly values. However, the scalar measures of accuracy and the return level plots indicate that POT provides the best fit distribution. The study also indicated that the uncertainties in the parameters estimates of a probabilistic model should be taken into account when the probability associated with a severe/extreme dry event is under analysis.
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One of the main problems related to the transport and manipulation of multiphase fluids concerns the existence of characteristic flow patterns and its strong influence on important operation parameters. A good example of this occurs in gas-liquid chemical reactors in which maximum efficiencies can be achieved by maintaining a finely dispersed bubbly flow to maximize the total interfacial area. Thus, the ability to automatically detect flow patterns is of crucial importance, especially for the adequate operation of multiphase systems. This work describes the application of a neural model to process the signals delivered by a direct imaging probe to produce a diagnostic of the corresponding flow pattern. The neural model is constituted of six independent neural modules, each of which trained to detect one of the main horizontal flow patterns, and a last winner-take-all layer responsible for resolving when two or more patterns are simultaneously detected. Experimental signals representing different bubbly, intermittent, annular and stratified flow patterns were used to validate the neural model.
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A study was conducted to evaluate the sorption and desorption of 14C herbicide saflufenacil (pyrimidinedione) in two soils in the State of São Paulo, classified as Red Yellow Latosol with clayey texture (LVA-1) and medium texture (LVA-2), using the batch method through isotherms. The soils were air dried and sieved a 2 mm mesh. The radioactivity was determined by liquid scintillation spectrometry in acclimatized room (25 ± 2 °C). Sorption isotherms were conducted for 5 concentrations of saflufenacil (5.0; 2.5; 1.0; 0.5 and 0.05 μg mL-1) and the results were adjusted to the Freundlich equation, thus obtaining the parameters of sorption followed by two extractions with 0.01 M CaCl2 to determine desorption parameters similarly to sorption. The results showed that saflufenacil sorption was low for both soils studied, being greater for the LVA with higher organic matter content. The desorption coefficients were greater than their sorption coefficients, suggesting the occurrence of hysteresis. The sorption and desorption isotherms (classified as type C isotherms), hysteresis and the t-test between the angular coefficient of the respective isotherms showed that both the sorption and desorption occur with equal intensity.
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Temporal dynamics of the chaetophoracean green algae Chaetophora elegans (Roth) C.A. Agardh and Stigeoclonium amoenum Kützing populations was investigated biweekly during late autumn trhough early spring (April to October) in two tropical streams from northwestern São Paulo State, southeastern Brazil. Abundances of one population of each species was evaluated by the quadrat technique in terms of percent cover and frequency. The fluctuations were related to the following stream variables: temperature, turbidity, specific conductance, pH, oxygen saturation, depth, substratum type, current velocity, irradiance and nutrients. Percent cover and frequency of C. elegans had lower values throughout the study period and was positively correlated to rainfall. Other correlations (i.e. positive of percent cover with depth and current velocity and negative with irradiance) were consistently found, reinforcing the strong influence of rainfall. On the other hand, percent cover and frequency of S. amoenum had higher values, with maximum growth from June to September. Percent cover was negatively correlated to rainfall. Results suggest the precipitation regime as the most important driving force to temporal changes in both populations, but playing different roles in each one. The gelatinous thallus of C. elegans seem to be favored by the increment of current velocity, since higher flows can improve the nutrient uptake by means of reduction in diffusion shell without promoting excessive drag force. In contrast, tufts of S. amoenum are, presumably, more exposed to drag force, and, consequently, more susceptible to mechanical damage effects due to higher current velocities.
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In order to assess the molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 in two neighboring cities located near the epicenter of the HIV-1 epidemics in Brazil (Santos and São Paulo), we investigated 83 HIV-1 strains obtained from samples collected in 1995 from intravenous drug users. The V3 through V5 region of the envelope of gp 120 was analyzed by heteroduplex mobility analysis. Of the 95 samples, 12 (12.6%) were PCR negative (6 samples from each group); low DNA concentration was the reason for non-amplification in half of these cases. Of the 42 typed cases from São Paulo, 34 (81%, 95% confidence limits 74.9 to 87.0%) were B and 8 (19%, 95% confidence limits 12.9 to 25.0%) were F, whereas of the 41 typed cases from Santos, 39 (95%, 95% confidence limits 91.6 to 98.4%) were B and 2 (5%, 95% confidence limits 1.6 to 8.4%) were C. We therefore confirm the relationship between clade F and intravenous drug use in São Paulo, and the presence of clade C in Santos. The fact that different genetic subtypes of HIV-1 are co-circulating indicates a need for continuous surveillance for these subtypes as well as for recombinant viruses in Brazil.