Performance of Surgical Risk Scores to Predict Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

AbstractBackground:Predicting mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) remains a challenge.Objectives:To evaluate the performance of 5 risk scores for cardiac surgery in predicting the 30-day mortality among patients of the Brazilian Registry of TAVI.Methods:The Brazilian Multicenter Registry prospectively enrolled 418 patients undergoing TAVI in 18 centers between 2008 and 2013. The 30-day mortality risk was calculated using the following surgical scores: the logistic EuroSCORE I (ESI), EuroSCORE II (ESII), Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score, Ambler score (AS) and Guaragna score (GS). The performance of the risk scores was evaluated in terms of their calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test) and discrimination [area under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (AUC)].Results:The mean age was 81.5 ± 7.7 years. The CoreValve (Medtronic) was used in 86.1% of the cohort, and the transfemoral approach was used in 96.2%. The observed 30-day mortality was 9.1%. The 30-day mortality predicted by the scores was as follows: ESI, 20.2 ± 13.8%; ESII, 6.5 ± 13.8%; STS score, 14.7 ± 4.4%; AS, 7.0 ± 3.8%; GS, 17.3 ± 10.8%. Using AUC, none of the tested scores could accurately predict the 30-day mortality. AUC for the scores was as follows: 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49 to 0.68, p = 0.09] for ESI; 0.54 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64, p = 0.42) for ESII; 0.57 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.67, p = 0.16) for AS; 0.48 (95% IC: 0.38 to 0.57, p = 0.68) for STS score; and 0.52 (95% CI: 0.42 to 0.62, p = 0.64) for GS. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test indicated acceptable calibration for all scores (p > 0.05).Conclusions:In this real world Brazilian registry, the surgical risk scores were inaccurate in predicting mortality after TAVI. Risk models specifically developed for TAVI are required.

Molecular biological approaches to the study of vectors in relation to malaria control

To a large extent, control of malaria vectors relies on the elimination of breeding sites and the application of chemical agents. There are increasing problems associated with the use of synthetic insecticides for vector control, including the evolution of resistance, the high cost of developing and registering new insecticides and an awareness of pollution from insecticide residues. These factors have stimulated interest in the application of molecular biology to the study of mosquito vectors of malaria; focussing primarily on two aspects. First, the improvement of existing control measures through the development of simplified DNA probe systems suitable for identification of vectors of malaria. The development of synthetic, non-radioactive DNA probes suitable for identification of species in the Anopheles gambiae complex is described with the aim of defining a simplified methodology wich is suitable for entomologist in the field. The second aspect to be considered is the development of completely novel strategies through the development of completely novel strategies through the genetic manipulation of insect vectors of malaria in order to alter their ability to transmit the disease. The major requirements for producing transgenic mosquitoes are outlined together with the progress wich has been made to date and discussed in relation to the prospects which this type of approach has for the future control of malaria.

Molecular approaches to malaria and Babesisosis diagnosis

The development of additional methods for detecting and identifuing Babesia and Plasmodium infections may be useful in disease monitoring, management and control efforts. To preliminarily evaluate sunthetic peptide-based serodiagnosis, a hydrophilic sequence (DDESEFDKEK)was selected from published BabR gene of B. bovis. Immunization of rabbits and cattle with the hemocyanin-conjugated peptide elicited antibody responses that specifically detected both P. falciparum and B. bovis antigens by immunofluorescence and Western blots. Using a dot-ELISA with this peptide, antisera from immunized and naturally-infected cattle, and immunized rodents, were specifically detected. Reactivity was weak and correlated with peptide immunization or infection. DNA-based detection using repetitive DNA was species-specific in dot-blot formats for B. bovis DNA, and in both dot-blot and in situ formats for P. falciparum; a streamlined enzymelinked synthetic DNA assay for P. falciparum detected 30 parasites/mm(cúbicos) from patient blood using either colorimetric (2-15 h color development) or chemiluminescent detection (0.5-6-min. exposures). Serodiagnostic and DNA hybridization methods may be complementary in the respective detection of both chronic and acute infections. However, recent improvements in the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) make feasible a more sensitive and uniform approach to the diagnosis of these and other infectious disease complexes, with appropriate primers and processing methods. An analysis of ribosomal DNA genes of Plasmodium and Toxoplasma identified Apicomplexa-conserved sequence regions. Specific and distinctive PCR profiles were obtained for primers spanning the internal transcribed spacer locus for each of several Plasmodium and Babesia species.

New approaches to social and economic research on schistosomiasis in TDR

This paper describes new approaches to social and economic research being developed by the Social and Economic Research component of the Special Programme for Research and Trainning in Tropical Diseases of the World Health Organization. One of these is a study to acess the possibility of identifying high risk communities for urinary schistosomiasis through a "mailed"questionaire approach distributed through an existing administrative system, thereby eliminating the need for face-to-face interviews by the research or disease control team. This approach, developed by the Swiss Tropical Institute in Ifakara, Tanzania, i s currently being tested in seven other African countries. The paper also describes a change of emphasis of economic research on schistosomiasis, focusing on the intra-household effects of the disease on rural households, rather than, as previously done, studying the impact of the disease on the productivity of individual wage labourers. Other priorities involve the identification of epidemiological information neede for improoved decision-making regarding acceptable treatment strategies in endemic areas with limited financial capacity, as well as research on how the adverse effects of economic development projects can be alleviated.

Alternative approaches in schistosomiasis control

Measures for for the control of schistosomiasis were implemented in Egypt begining 1922. This shows that developing endemic countries are facing this problem for near 70 years. However, results in the control of this infection have not been satisfactorily obtained in spite of the technologies and strategies recently developed. The idea that the social and economic components are relevant in the control of schistosomiasis is not new although its extension and profundity have not usually been well understood. More recently; most of the workers have recognized that the distribution of the prevalence rates of schistosomiasis should not be neglected in the control of the infection. At present field work projects on the control of schistosomiasis are being developed in rural areas of two Brazilian states (Espirito Santo and Pernanbuco). The adopted strategy aims to interfere in the complex relationships between amn and his bio-social-cultural environment, without forgeting tha the unequal distribution of the space is a consequence of the political and economic organization of the Society.

New approaches for the control and eradication of schistosomiasis in Venezuela

Schistosomiasis in Americawith the exception of Brazil, behaves as a chronic mild disease with few clinical manifestations due to low parasite burden. These features restrict the clinical and parasitological diagnosis. The most commonly used stool examination method, Kato-Katz, becomes intensitive when the majority of individuals excrete less than 100 eggs/g of feces. In view that antigen-detecting techniques have not been able to reveal light infections, the antibody detecting assays remain as a very valuable diagnostic tool for epidemiological surveillance. The Venezuelan Schistosomiasis Research group (CECOICE) has designed a mass chemotherapy strategy based on sero-diagnosis. Since blood sampling is one of the important limitating factors for large seroepidemiological trials we developed a simple capillary technique that sucessfully overcomed most of the limitations of blood drawing. In this sense, ELISA seems to be the most adecuate test for epidemiological studies. Soluble egg Schistosoma mansoni antigen (SEA) has been largely used in Venezuela. The sensitivity ELISA-SEA in our hands is 90% moreover its specific reach 92% when populations from non-endemic areas but heavily infected with other intestinal parasites are analyzed. The Schistosomiasis Control Program is currently carrying out the surveillance of endemic areas using ELISA-SEA as the first screening method, followed by the Circumoval Precipitin test for validation assay. The results with these two serological techniques allowed us to defined the criteria of chemotherapy in populations of the endemic areas. On the search of better diagnostic technique, Alkaline Phosphatase Immunoenzyme Assay (APIA) is being evaluated in field surveys.

Modern immunological approaches to assess malaria transmission and immunity and to diagnose plasmodial infection

The present paper reviews our recent data concerning the use of immunological methods employing monoclonal antibodies and synthetic peptides to study malaria transmission and immunity and to diagnose plasmodial infection. As concerns malaria transmission, we studied the main vectors of human malaria and the plasmodial species transmitted in endemic areas of Rondônia state, Brazil. The natural infection on anopheline was evaluated by immunoradiometric assay (IRMA) using monoclonal antibodies to an immunodominant sporozoite surface antigen (CS protein) demonstrated to be species specific. Our results showed that among six species of Anopheles found infected, An. darlingi was the main vector transmitting Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax malaria in the immediate vicinity of houses. In order to assess the level of anti-CS antibodies we studied, by IRMA using the synthetic peptide corresponding to the repetitive epitope of the sporozoite CS protein, sera of individuals living in the same areas where the entomological survey has been performed. In this assay the prevalence of anti-CS antibodies was very low and did not reflect the malaria transmission rate in the studied areas. In relation to malaria diagnosis, a monoclonal antibody specific to an epitope of a 50 kDa exoantigen, the major component of supernatant collected at the time of schizont rupture, was used as a probe for the detection of P. falciparum antigens. This assay seemed to be more sensitive than parasitological examination for malaria diagnosis since it was able to detect plasmodial antigens in both symptomatic and asymtomatic individuals with negative thick blood smear at different intervals after a last parasitologically confirmed confirmed attack of malaria.

Schistosomiasis vaccine development: approaches and prospects

Mounting evidence for acquired immunity to schistosomiasis in humans supports the case for immunological intervention. On the other hand, rapid reinfection poses a threat to younger age groups due to the slow maturation of natural resistance. However, rational approaches, based on advances in immunology and molecular biology, have substantially increased the odds of producing an effective vaccine. Since the parasite cannot replicate in the human host and serious morbidity generally occurs only after a relatively long period of heavy worm burden, complete protection against infection is not essential. The chances of success would increase if more than one of the various host/parasite interphases were targeted, for example reducing morbidity through decreased worm loads as well as through suppression of egg production. Several promising schistosome antigens have now reached an advanced phase of development and are currently undergoing independent confirmatory testing according to a standardized protocol. A few molecules are being contemplated for scaled-up production but, so far, only one has reached the stage of industrial manufacture and safety testing. Since schistosomiasis cannot realistically be controlled by a single approach, vaccination is envisaged to be implemented in conjunction with other means of control, notably chemotherapy.

Different approaches to modelling the cost-effectiveness of schistosomiasis control

This paper reviews three different approaches to modelling the cost-effectiveness of schistosomiasis control. Although these approaches vary in their assessment of costs, the major focus of the paper is on the evaluation of effectiveness. The first model presented is a static economic model which assesses effectiveness in terms of the proportion of cases cured. This model is important in highlighting that the optimal choice of chemotherapy regime depends critically on the level of budget constraint, the unit costs of screening and treatment, the rates of compliance with screening and chemotherapy and the prevalence of infection. The limitations of this approach is that it models the cost-effectiveness of only one cycle of treatment, and effectiveness reflects only the immediate impact of treatment. The second model presented is a prevalence-based dynamic model which links prevalence rates from one year to the next, and assesses effectiveness as the proportion of cases prevented. This model was important as it introduced the concept of measuring the long-term impact of control by using a transmission model which can assess reduction in infection through time, but is limited to assessing the impact only on the prevalence of infection. The third approach presented is a theoretical framework which describes the dynamic relationships between infection and morbidity, and which assesses effectiveness in terms of case-years prevented of infection and morbidity. The use of this model in assessing the cost-effectiveness of age-targeted treatment in controlling Schistosoma mansoni is explored in detail, with respect to varying frequencies of treatment and the interaction between drug price and drug efficacy.

Histoarchitecture of schistosomal granuloma development and involution: morphogenetic and biomechanical approaches

The authors present morphogenetic and biomechanical approaches on the concept of the Schistosoma mansoni granulomas, considering them as organoid structures that depend on cellular adhesion and sorting, forming rearrangement into hierarchical concentric layers, creating tension-dependent structures, aiming to acquire round form, since this is the minimal energy form, in which opposing forces pull in equally from all directions and are in balance. From the morphogenetic point of view, the granulomas function as little organs, presenting maturative and involutional stages in their development with final disappearance (pre-granulomatous stages, subdivided in: weakly and/or initial reactive and exudative; granulomatous stages: exudative-productive, productive and involutional). A model for the development of granulomas was suggested, according to the following stages: encapsulating, focal histolysis, fiber production, orientation and compacting and involution and desintegration. The authors concluded that schistosomal granuloma is not a tangled web of individual cells and fibers, but an organized structure composed by host and parasite components, which is not formed to attack the miracidia, but functions as an hybrid interface between two different phylogenetic beings.