50 resultados para Ruin Probability


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PURPOSE: Infection is the leading complication of long-term central venous catheters, and its incidence may vary according to catheter type. The objective of this study was to compare the frequency and probability of infection between two types of long-term intravenous devices. METHODS: Retrospective study in 96 onco-hematology patients with partially implanted catheters (n = 55) or completely implanted ones (n = 42). Demographic data and catheter care were similar in both groups. Infection incidence and infection-free survival were used for the comparison of the two devices. RESULTS: In a median follow-up time of 210 days, the catheter-related infection incidence was 0.2102/100 catheter-days for the partially implanted devices and 0.0045/100 catheter-days for the completely implanted devices; the infection incidence rate was 46.7 (CI 95% = 6.2 to 348.8). The 1-year first infection-free survival ratio was 45% versus 97%, and the 1-year removal due to infection-free survival ratio was 42% versus 97% for partially and totally implanted catheters, respectively (P <.001 for both comparisons). CONCLUSION: In the present study, the infection risk was lower in completely implanted devices than in partially implanted ones.

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Seed dispersal of Hymenaea courbaril was studied by following the fate of 585 seeds embedded with small magnets and set in displays in and near a logged strip in rain forest in the Peruvian Amazonian. Mammals took fruits from all displays, which were located in the forest, edge, and cleared strip. Overall removal rates were low - a median of 8.1 fruits / month from displays maintained with 8-10 fruits - but were higher in August than in earlier months. Most fruits were dropped near the display or had their seeds eaten, but > 13% were successfully dispersed. Most of the dispersed seeds were buried, which increases probability of germination. Maximum dispersal distance of live seeds was 12.1 m (median 3.1 m), but other magnets were transported up to 34 m, indicating seeds were dispersed further, but then eaten. Acouchies (most likely Myoprocta pratti) and agoutis (Dasyprocta fuliginosa) were apparently the main dispersal agents. Dispersal of seeds from the forest into the logged strip was rare, suggesting that although rodents disperse H. courbaril, they cannot be relied on for the reseeding this and similar species in recent clearings.

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Global warming has potentially catastrophic impacts in Amazonia, while at the same time maintenance of the Amazon forest offers one of the most valuable and cost-effective options for mitigating climate change. We know that the El Niño phenomenon, caused by temperature oscillations of surface water in the Pacific, has serious impacts in Amazonia, causing droughts and forest fires (as in 1997-1998). Temperature oscillations in the Atlantic also provoke severe droughts (as in 2005). We also know that Amazonian trees die both from fires and from water stress under hot, dry conditions. In addition, water recycled through the forest provides rainfall that maintains climatic conditions appropriate for tropical forest, especially in the dry season. What we need to know quickly, through intensified research, includes progress in representing El Niño and the Atlantic oscillations in climatic models, representation of biotic feedbacks in models used for decision-making about global warming, and narrowing the range of estimating climate sensitivity to reduce uncertainty about the probability of very severe impacts. Items that need to be negotiated include the definition of "dangerous" climate change, with the corresponding maximum levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation of global warming must include maintaining the Amazon forest, which has benefits for combating global warming from two separate roles: cutting the flow the emissions of carbon each year from the rapid pace of deforestation, and avoiding emission of the stock of carbon in the remaining forest that can be released by various ways, including climate change itself. Barriers to rewarding forest maintenance include the need for financial rewards for both of these roles. Other needs are for continued reduction of uncertainty regarding emissions and deforestation processes, as well as agreement on the basis of carbon accounting. As one of the countries most subject to impacts of climate change, Brazil must assume the leadership in fighting global warming.

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Duplicates are common in germplasm banks and their identification is needed to facilitate germplasm bank management and to reduce maintenance costs. The aim of this work was to identify duplicates of cassava from a germplasm bank in Eastern Amazon, which had been previously characterized both morphological and agronomically. In order to be genotyped with 15 microsatellite loci, 36 accessions were selected. These accessions were classified into 13 groups of similar morpho-agronomical characteristics. All loci were polymorphic, and 75 alleles were identified, with an average of five alleles per loci and H E = 0.66. There were determined 34 pairs of genotypes with identical multiloci profiles and the probability of genetic identity was 1.1x10-12 with probability of exclusion of 99.9999%. Among these duplicates, there are accessions sampled on different years and places, but with different names and accessions with the same name sampled in different places and years. The study identified genotypes that are grown in different places and that have been maintained over the years by local farmers.

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Species distribution modeling has relevant implications for the studies of biodiversity, decision making about conservation and knowledge about ecological requirements of the species. The aim of this study was to evaluate if the use of forest inventories can improve the estimation of occurrence probability, identify the limits of the potential distribution and habitat preference of a group of timber tree species. The environmental predictor variables were: elevation, slope, aspect, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and height above the nearest drainage (HAND). To estimate the distribution of species we used the maximum entropy method (Maxent). In comparison with a random distribution, using topographic variables and vegetation index as features, the Maxent method predicted with an average accuracy of 86% the geographical distribution of studied species. The altitude and NDVI were the most important variables. There were limitations to the interpolation of the models for non-sampled locations and that are outside of the elevation gradient associated with the occurrence data in approximately 7% of the basin area. Ceiba pentandra (samaúma), Castilla ulei (caucho) and Hura crepitans (assacu) is more likely to occur in nearby water course areas. Clarisia racemosa (guariúba), Amburana acreana (cerejeira), Aspidosperma macrocarpon (pereiro), Apuleia leiocarpa (cumaru cetim), Aspidosperma parvifolium (amarelão) and Astronium lecointei (aroeira) can also occur in upland forest and well drained soils. This modeling approach has potential for application on other tropical species still less studied, especially those that are under pressure from logging.