73 resultados para Probability of fixation
Resumo:
Knowledge on the factors influencing water erosion is fundamental for the choice of the best land use practices. Rainfall, expressed by rainfall erosivity, is one of the most important factors of water erosion. The objective of this study was to determine rainfall erosivity and the return period of rainfall in the Coastal Plains region, near Aracruz, a town in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil, based on available data. Rainfall erosivity was calculated based on historic rainfall data, collected from January 1998 to July 2004 at 5 min intervals, by automatic weather stations of the Aracruz Cellulose S.A company. A linear regression with individual rainfall and erosivity data was fit to obtain an equation that allowed data extrapolation to calculate individual erosivity for a 30-year period. Based on this data the annual average rainfall erosivity in Aracruz was 8,536 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1. Of the total annual rainfall erosivity 85 % was observed in the most critical period October to March. Annual erosive rains accounted for 38 % of the events causing erosion, although the runoff volume represented 88 % of the total. The annual average rainfall erosivity return period was estimated to be 3.4 years.
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The erosive capacity of rainfall can be expressed by an index and knowing it allows recommendation of soil management and conservation practices to reduce water erosion. The objective of this study was to calculate various indices of rainfall erosivity in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil, identify the best one, and discover its temporal distribution. The study was conducted at the Center of Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences, Lages, Santa Catarina, using daily rainfall charts from 1989 to 2012. Using the computer program Chuveros , 107 erosivity indices were obtained, which were based on maximum intensity in 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 110, 120, 135, 150, 165, 180, 210, and 240 min of duration and on the combination of these intensities with the kinetic energy obtained by the equations of Brown & Foster, Wagner & Massambani, and Wischmeier & Smith. The indices of the time period from 1993 to 2012 were correlated with the respective soil losses from the standard plot of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) in order to select the erosivity index for the region. Erosive rainfall accounted for 83 % of the mean annual total volume of 1,533 mm. The erosivity index (R factor) of rainfall recommended for Lages is the EI30, whose mean annual value is 5,033 MJ mm ha-1 h-1, and of this value, 66 % occurs from September to February. Mean annual erosivity has a return period estimated at two years with a 50 % probability of occurrence.
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The objective of this work was to evaluate the population structure and the genetic and phenotypic progress of Nelore cattle in Northern Brazil. Pedigree information concerning animals born between 1942 and 2006 were analyzed. Population structure was performed using the Endog program. Out of the 140,628 animals studied, 67.7, 14.52 and 3.18% had complete pedigree record of the first, second and third parental generation, respectively. Inbreeding and average relatedness coefficients were low: 0.2 and 0.13%, respectively. However, these parameters may have been underestimated, since information on pedigree was incomplete. The effective number of founders was 370 and the genetic contribution of 10, 50 and 448 most influent ancestors explained 13.2, 28 and 50% of the genetic variability in the population, respectively. The genetic variability for growth traits and population structure demonstrates high probability of increasing productivity through selective breeding. Moreover, management strategies to reduce the currently observed age at first calving and generation intervals are important for Nelore cattle genetic improvement.
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The objective of this work was to assess the genetic diversity and population structure of wheat genotypes, to detect significant and stable genetic associations, as well as to evaluate the efficiency of statistical models to identify chromosome regions responsible for the expression of spike-related traits. Eight important spike characteristics were measured during five growing seasons in Serbia. A set of 30 microsatellite markers positioned near important agronomic loci was used to evaluate genetic diversity, resulting in a total of 349 alleles. The marker-trait associations were analyzed using the general linear and mixed linear models. The results obtained for number of allelic variants per locus (11.5), average polymorphic information content value (0.68), and average gene diversity (0.722) showed that the exceptional level of polymorphism in the genotypes is the main requirement for association studies. The population structure estimated by model-based clustering distributed the genotypes into six subpopulations according to log probability of data. Significant and stable associations were detected on chromosomes 1B, 2A, 2B, 2D, and 6D, which explained from 4.7 to 40.7% of total phenotypic variations. The general linear model identified a significantly larger number of marker-trait associations (192) than the mixed linear model (76). The mixed linear model identified nine markers associated to six traits.
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Iliotibial band lesions constitute a potential source of discomfort and are frequently confounded with other conditions which cause pain on the lateral aspect of the hip, thigh and knee. Ultrasonography is usually regarded as a first-line imaging modality in the assessment of such conditions because of its excellent diagnostic accuracy, low cost and wide availability. The correct identification of the structure involved in the production of symptoms leads to an appropriate management and to a higher probability of resolution of the clinical complaint. The present article is aimed at reviewing the different sonographic presentations of iliotibial band syndromes.
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Carpal boss is an uncommon condition whose incidence is underestimated and that is frequently confused with other causes of development of tumor-like lesions on the dorsum of the wrist. From the clinical point of view, the main obstacle to its recognition is the nonspecificity of symptoms, frequently attributed to dorsal ganglion cysts, since both conditions share a similar location on the dorsum of the wrist. The assessment by ultrasonography allows for a correct diagnosis and appropriate management, with better chances of resolution of the clinical complaint and lower probability of iatrogenic worsening of the lesion. The present review is aimed at describing the different sonographic findings of carpal boss.
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The present paper describes the effect of metals ions on the in vitro availability of enoxacin (a second generation quinolone antibiotic) owing to drug-metal interaction. These interaction studies were performed at 37 °C in different pH environments simulating human body compartments and were studied by UV spectroscopic technique. In order to determine the probability of these reactions different kinetic parameters (dissolution constants (K) and free energy change (ΔG)) for these reactions were also calculated. It is proposed that the structure of enoxacin contains various electron donating sites which facilitate its binding with metallic cations forming chelates. Hence taking food products, nutritional supplements or multivitamins containing multivalent cations at the same time as enoxacin, could reduce the absorption of the drug into the circulation and thus would decrease the effectiveness of the drug. In addition, the MIC of enoxacin for various microorganisms before and after interaction with metal ions was calculated which in most cases was increased which possibly could impair the clinical efficacy of the drug.
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Most warning systems for plant disease control are based on Vinho, in Bento Gonçalves - RS, during the growing seasons 2000/ weather models dependent on the relationships between leaf wetness 01, 2002/03 and 2003/2004, using the grape cultivar Isabel. The duration and mean air temperature in this period considering the conventional system used by local growers was compared with the target disease intensity. For the development of a warning system to new warning system by using different cumulative daily disease severity control grapevine downy mildew, the equation generated by Lalancette values (CDDSV) as the criterion to schedule fungicide application and et al. (7) was used. This equation was employed to elaborate a critical reapplication. In experiments conducted in 2003/04, CDDSV of 12 - period table and program a computerized device, which records, though 14 showed promising to schedule the first spraying and the interval electronic sensors, leaf wetness duration, mean temperature in this between fungicide applications, reducing by 37.5% the number of period and automatically calculates the daily value of probability of applications and maintaining the same control efficiency in leaves infection occurrence. The system was validated at Embrapa Uva e and bunches, similarly to the conventional system.
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AB STRACT This study aimed at evaluating the natural durability of Eucalyptus dunnii, Eucalyptus robusta, Eucalyptus tereticornis and Hovenia dulcis woods submitted to a deterioration test in two environments, field and forest. The test samples were buried until half of their length (150 mm). Evaluations were carried out each 45 days, totalizing a 405-day period, with three-repetition withdrawal of each species for environment, totalizing nine samples from each environment, making up 24 test samples for evaluation. After percentage calculations of mass loss and resistance degree classification, the deterioration index was adopted for decomposition evaluation and fungal decay potential determination of test samples. The study has been carried out in completely randomized design (CRD), evaluated through analysis of variance (ANOVA) with subsequent comparison of means by Turkey' s test, in a 5%-level of probability of error, along with regression analysis. Eucalyptus tereticornis wood presented lesser mass loss in both environments. Hovenia dulcis presented lesser deterioration probability in both environments. Forest environment test samples presented greater mass loss percentages and lesser deterioration index.
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The application of the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to model the probability of occurrence of extreme low Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values leads to an increase of the knowledge related to the occurrence of extreme dry months. This sort of analysis can be carried out by means of two approaches: the block maxima (BM; associated with the General Extreme Value distribution) and the peaks-over-threshold (POT; associated with the Generalized Pareto distribution). Each of these procedures has its own advantages and drawbacks. Thus, the main goal of this study is to compare the performance of BM and POT in characterizing the probability of occurrence of extreme dry SPI values obtained from the weather station of Ribeirão Preto-SP (1937-2012). According to the goodness-of-fit tests, both BM and POT can be used to assess the probability of occurrence of the aforementioned extreme dry SPI monthly values. However, the scalar measures of accuracy and the return level plots indicate that POT provides the best fit distribution. The study also indicated that the uncertainties in the parameters estimates of a probabilistic model should be taken into account when the probability associated with a severe/extreme dry event is under analysis.
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ABSTRACTChanges in the frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events have been pointed out as a likely impact of global warming. In this context, this study aimed to detect climate change in series of extreme minimum and maximum air temperature of Pelotas, State of Rio Grande do Sul, (1896 - 2011) and its influence on the probability of occurrence of these variables. We used the general extreme value distribution (GEV) in its stationary and non-stationary forms. In the latter case, GEV parameters are variable over time. On the basis of goodness-of-fit tests and of the maximum likelihood method, the GEV model in which the location parameter increases over time presents the best fit of the daily minimum air temperature series. Such result describes a significant increase in the mean values of this variable, which indicates a potential reduction in the frequency of frosts. The daily maximum air temperature series is also described by a non-stationary model, whose location parameter decreases over time, and the scale parameter related to sample variance rises between the beginning and end of the series. This result indicates a drop in the mean of daily maximum air temperature values and increased dispersion of the sample data.
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ABSTRACT Considering the importance of the substrate to bedding in the poultry industry in Brazil, and the enormous pressure on environmental management as to the correct use and management of the waste generated by the production sector, this study aimed to analyze the effect of reuses of two types of litter on sanitary qualities and productive performance of broilers. The study was conducted with litter from 32 different broiler houses, two types of substrates and four cycles of reuses. The litter sanitary quality was verified by the identification of the presence of Escherichia coli and Salmonellaspp. and the incidence of footpad dermatitis. It was observed that the coffee hulls litter presented a reduction of 28.61 percentage points in the probability of occurrence of Salmonella spp when compared to the wood shavings litter, nevertheless, no statistical difference was observed on bacterial occurrence with Salmonella spp. for litter of different types or numbers of reutilization. The presence of Escherichia coli was detected in litter of all cycles, for both types of substrate. The occurrence of footpad lesions was detected for both types of litter, and was influenced by the number of reutilization cycles of the litter. The degree of incidence was detected only for the litter with coffee hull in which there was an increase of 30% between the first and second reuse from which tended to stabilize.
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PURPOSE:Pregnant women have a 2-3 fold higher probability of developing restless legs syndrome (RLS – sleep-related movement disorders) than general population. This study aims to evaluate the behavior and locomotion of rats during pregnancy in order to verify if part of these animals exhibit some RLS-like features.METHODS:We used 14 female 80-day-old Wistar rats that weighed between 200 and 250 g. The rats were distributed into control (CTRL) and pregnant (PN) groups. After a baseline evaluation of their behavior and locomotor activity in an open-field environment, the PN group was inducted into pregnancy, and their behavior and locomotor activity were evaluated on days 3, 10 and 19 of pregnancy and in the post-lactation period in parallel with the CTRL group. The serum iron and transferrin levels in the CTRL and PN groups were analyzed in blood collected after euthanasia by decapitation.RESULTS:There were no significant differences in the total ambulation, grooming events, fecal boli or urine pools between the CTRL and PN groups. However, the PN group exhibited fewer rearing events, increased grooming time and reduced immobilization time than the CTRL group (ANOVA, p<0.05).CONCLUSION:These results suggest that pregnant rats show behavioral and locomotor alterations similar to those observed in animal models of RLS, demonstrating to be a possible animal model of this sleep disorder.
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PURPOSE: To estimate the likelihood of axillary lymph node involvement for patients with early-stage breast cancer, based on a variety of clinical and pathological factors. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was done in hospital databases from 1999 to 2007. Two hundred thirty-nine patients were diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer. Predictive factors, such as patient age, tumor size, lymphovascular invasion, histological grade and immunohistochemical subtype were analyzed to identify variables that may be associated with axillary lymph node metastasis. RESULTS: Patients with tumors that are negative for estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, and HER2 had approximately a 90% lower chance of developing lymph node metastasis than those with luminal A tumors (e.g., ER+ and/or PR+ and HER2-) - Odds Ratio: 0.11; 95% confidence interval: 0.01-0.88; p=0.01. Furthermore, the risk for lymph node metastasis of luminal A tumors seemed to decrease as patient age increased, and it was directly correlated with tumor size. CONCLUSION: The molecular classification of early-stage breast cancer using immunohistochemistry may help predicting the probability of developing axillary lymph node metastasis. Further studies are needed to optimize predictions for nodal involvement, with the aim of aiding the decision-making process for breast cancer treatment.
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Objective To compare the diagnostic accuracy of the classic Meisels cytologic criteria and the Schneider secondary criteria relative to the hybrid capture method for diagnosing HPV infection. Methods This was a retrospective study performed at a public university hospital. A total of 41 patients with a cytologic diagnosis of HPV infection and 40 HPV-negative patients were selected for review of the cervical-vaginal smears seeking to classical and secondary criteria. A single pathologist reviewed the slides in search of the criteria. The classical and secondary cytologic criteria were compared with the hybrid capture for diagnosing HPV infection. Bartleti test was applied for the age analysis, and Fisher's exact test was used to compare proportions. The tests were considered significant when the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis was less than 5% (p < 0.05). Results The Meisels criteria were less sensitive (34.0%) than the secondary Schneider criteria (57.5%) when compared with the hybrid capture (p < 0.0001), although the specificity of the former criteria was non-significantly higher (91.2% and 67.7%, respectively). In cases of moderate or intense inflammation, the sensitivity and specificity of the Schneider criteria were decreased, 33.3% and 50.0% respectively (p = 0.0115). Conclusions Compared with hybrid capture for diagnosis of HPV infection, the sensitivity of the secondary Schneider criteria was higher than the classical Meisels criteria.Moderate or intense inflammation reduces the sensitivity and specificity of the secondary Schneider criteria for diagnosing HPV infection using the hybrid capture as the gold standard.