Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

AbstractBackground:30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes.Objective:This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx) at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT).Methods:Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC) III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves.Results:The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD), ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD) increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping.Conclusion:We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio and Platelet-to-Lymphocyte Ratio are Predictors of Heart Failure

Abstract Background: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) are inflammatory markers used as prognostic factors in various diseases. The aims of this study were to compare the PLR and the NLR of heart failure (HF) patients with those of age-sex matched controls, to evaluate the predictive value of those markers in detecting HF, and to demonstrate the effect of NLR and PLR on mortality in HF patients during follow-up. Methods: This study included 56 HF patients and 40 controls without HF. All subjects underwent transthoracic echocardiography to evaluate cardiac functions. The NLR and the PLR were calculated as the ratio of neutrophil count to lymphocyte count and as the ratio of platelet count to lymphocyte count, respectively. All HF patients were followed after their discharge from the hospital to evaluate mortality, cerebrovascular events, and re-hospitalization. Results: The NLR and the PLR of HF patients were significantly higher compared to those of the controls (p < 0.01). There was an inverse correlation between the NLR and the left ventricular ejection fraction of the study population (r: -0.409, p < 0.001). The best cut-off value of NLR to predict HF was 3.0, with 86.3% sensitivity and 77.5% specificity, and the best cut-off value of PLR to predict HF was 137.3, with 70% sensitivity and 60% specificity. Only NLR was an independent predictor of mortality in HF patients. A cut-off value of 5.1 for NLR can predict death in HF patients with 75% sensitivity and 62% specificity during a 12.8-month follow-up period on average. Conclusion: NLR and PLR were higher in HF patients than in age-sex matched controls. However, NLR and PLR were not sufficient to establish a diagnosis of HF. NLR can be used to predict mortality during the follow-up of HF patients.

Prognostic Value of Pulmonary Vascular Resistance by Magnetic Resonance in Systolic Heart Failure

Abstract Background: Pulmonary hypertension is associated with poor prognosis in heart failure. However, non-invasive diagnosis is still challenging in clinical practice. Objective: We sought to assess the prognostic utility of non-invasive estimation of pulmonary vascular resistances (PVR) by cardiovascular magnetic resonance to predict adverse cardiovascular outcomes in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Methods: Prospective registry of patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < 40% and recently admitted for decompensated heart failure during three years. PVRwere calculated based on right ventricular ejection fraction and average velocity of the pulmonary artery estimated during cardiac magnetic resonance. Readmission for heart failure and all-cause mortality were considered as adverse events at follow-up. Results: 105 patients (average LVEF 26.0 ±7.7%, ischemic etiology 43%) were included. Patients with adverse events at long-term follow-up had higher values of PVR (6.93 ± 1.9 vs. 4.6 ± 1.7estimated Wood Units (eWu), p < 0.001). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, PVR ≥ 5 eWu(cutoff value according to ROC curve) was independently associated with increased risk of adverse events at 9 months follow-up (HR2.98; 95% CI 1.12-7.88; p < 0.03). Conclusions: In patients with HFrEF, the presence of PVR ≥ 5.0 Wu is associated with significantly worse clinical outcome at follow-up. Non-invasive estimation of PVR by cardiac magnetic resonance might be useful for risk stratification in HFrEF, irrespective of etiology, presence of late gadolinium enhancement or LVEF.

The value of ultrasonography in assessment of portal hypertension in hepatosplenic schistosomiasis

Ultrasonography can reveal most of the manifestations of portal hypertension complicating hepatosplenic, schistosomiasis. However, direct demonstration of gastroesophageal varices by ultrasonography is still very difficult. An attempt was done to correlate sonographic features of portal hypertension with the degree of fibrosis to screen patients having varices and predicting their chance of bleeding. The results obtained were found to be consistent with the esophagogastric endoscopy and with history of hematemesis. Four parameters were used, size of spleen, degree of periportal fibrosis, presence of collaterals and portal vein diameter. A pilot field survey was also done adopting the same principle.

Evaluation of tests based on the antibody response to keyhole limpet haemocyanin and soluble egg antigen to differentiate acute and chronic human schistosomiasis mansoni

Specific IgG and IgM responses to soluble egg antigen (SEA) and keyhole limpet haemocyanin (KLH) were measured by ELISA in patients with acute and chronic schistosomiasis. The tests based upon IgM and IgG antibodies responses to KLH presented the best diagnostic discrimination, and can be used in conjunction with clinical and epidemiological data to the differential diagnosis of acute schistosomiasis.

A follow up study of cytomegalovirus infection in a group of Turkish renal transplant recipients using molecular assays

The clinical value of an in-house cytomegalovirus nested polymerase chain reaction (CMV-PCR) and a commercial molecular assay hybrid capture CMV DNA assay (HCA) was evaluated in monitoring a group of renal transplant patients for six months follow up. In this study, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of nested CMV DNA PCR assay and HCA at the beginning of the study were 70, 42.9, 46.7, 66.7, and 60, 78.6, 66.7, and 73.3% respectively. After six months, they were 80, 66.7, 80, 66.7 for CMV PCR and 73.3, 88.9, 91.7, 66.7% for HCA respectively. These results indicate that in monitoring and predicting CMV infections in renal transplant recipients, not only qualitative but also quantitative assays must be used together in order to decide the preemptive strategies.

Value of morphotyping for the characterization of Candida albicans clinical isolates

Until recently, morphotyping, a method evaluating fringe and surface characteristics of streak colonies grown on malt agar, has been recommended as a simple and unexpensive typing method for Candida albicans isolates. The discriminatory power and reproducibility of Hunter's modified scheme of Phongpaichit's morphotyping has been evaluated on 28 C. albicans isolates recovered from the oral cavity of asymptomatic human immunodeficiency virus-positive subjects, and compared to two molecular typing methods: randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) fingerprinting, and contour clamped homogeneous electric field (CHEF) electrophoretic karyotyping. Morphological features of streak colonies allowed to distinguish 11 different morphotypes while RAPD fingerprinting yielded 25 different patterns and CHEF electrophoresis recognized 9 karyotypes. The discriminatory power calculated with the formula of Hunter and Gaston was 0.780 for morphotyping, 0.984 for RAPD fingerprinting, and 0.630 for karyotyping. Reproducibility was tested using 43 serial isolates from 15 subjects (2 to 6 isolates per subject) and by repeating the test after one year storage of the isolates. While genetic methods generally recognized a single type for all serial isolates from each of the subjects studied, morphotyping detected strain variations in five subjects in the absence of genetic confirmation. Poor reproducibility was demonstrated repeating morphotyping after one year storage of the isolates since differences in at least one character were detected in 92.9% of the strains.

Comparison of tests for the detection of circulating filarial antigen (Og4C3-ELISA and AD12-ICT) and ultrasound in diagnosis of lymphatic filariasis in individuals with microfilariae

Significant advances were made in the diagnosis of filariasis in the 1990s with the emergence of three new alternative tools: ultrasound and tests to detect circulating antigen using two monoclonal antibodies, Og4C3 and AD12-ICT-card. This study aimed to identify which of these methods is the most sensitive for diagnosis of infection. A total of 256 individuals, all male and carrying microfilariae (1-15,679 MF/mL), diagnosed by nocturnal venous blood samples, were tested by all three techniques. The tests for circulating filarial antigen concurred 100% and correctly identified 246/256 (96.69%) of the positive individuals, while ultrasound detected only 186/256 (73.44%). Of the circulating antigen tests, ICT-card was the most convenient method for identification of Wuchereria bancrofti carriers. It was easy to perform, practical and quick.

Anti-Toxoplasma gondii secretory IgA in tears of patients with ocular toxoplasmosis: immunodiagnostic validation by ELISA

Toxoplasma gondii causes posterior uveitis and the specific diagnosis is based on clinical criteria. The presence of anti-T. gondii secretory IgA (sIgA) antibodies in patients' tears has been reported and an association was found between ocular toxoplasmosis and the anti-T. gondii sIgA isotype in Brazilian patients. The purpose of this study was to provide an objective validation of the published ELISA test for determining the presence of anti-T. gondii sIgA in the tears of individuals with ocular toxoplasmosis. Tears from 156 patients with active posterior uveitis were analysed; 82 of them presented characteristics of ocular toxoplasmosis (standard lesion) and 74 patients presented uveitis due to other aetiologies. Cases of active posterior uveitis were considered standard when a new inflammatory focus satellite to old retinochoroidal scars was observed. The determination of anti-T. gondii sIgA was made using an ELISA test with crude tachyzoite antigenic extracts. Tears were collected without previous stimulation. Detection of sIgA showed 65.9% sensitivity (95% CI = 54.5-74.4), 71.6% specificity (95% CI = 59.8-81.2), a positive predictive value of 72% (95% CI = 60.3-81.5) and a negative predictive value of 65.4% (95% CI = 54.0-75.4). sIgA reactivity was higher in the tears of patients with active posterior uveitis due to T. gondii (p < 0.05). The test is useful for differentiating active posterior uveitis due to toxoplasmosis from uveitis caused by other diseases.

An evaluation of p16INK4a expression in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia specimens, including women with HIV-1

Although several studies have evaluated the role of p16INK4a as a diagnostic marker of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and its association with disease progression, studies regarding the role of p16INK4a in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients remain scarce. The present study was designed to determine the potential utility of p16INK4a as a diagnostic marker for CIN and invasive cervical cancer in HIV-positive and negative cervical specimens. An immunohistochemical analysis of p16INK4a was performed in 326 cervical tissue microarray specimens. Performance indicators were calculated and compared using receiving operating characteristics curve (ROC)/area under the curve. In HIV-1-negative women, the percentage of cells that was positive for p16INK4a expression was significantly correlated with the severity of CIN (p < 0.0001). A ROC curve with a cut-off value of 55.28% resulted in a sensitivity of 89%, a specificity of 81%, a positive predictive value of 91% and a negative predictive value of 78%. HIV-seropositive women exhibited decreased expression of p16INK4a in CIN2-3 specimens compared with HIV-negative specimens (p = 0.031). The ROC data underscore the potential utility of p16INK4a under defined conditions as a diagnostic marker for CIN 2-3 staging and invasive cervical cancer. HIV-1 infection, however, is associated with relatively reduced p16INK4a expression in CIN 2-3.

Comparison of a modified shell vial culture procedure with conventional mouse inoculation for rabies virus isolation

Rabies is a neurotropic disease that is often lethal. The early diagnosis of rabies infection is important and requires methods that allow for the isolation of the virus from animals and humans. The present study compared a modified shell vial (MSV) procedure using 24-well tissue culture plates with the mouse inoculation test (MIT), which is considered the gold standard for rabies virus isolation. Thirty brain samples (25 positive and 5 negative by the fluorescent antibody test) obtained from different animal species at the National Institute of Hygiene Rafael Rangel in Caracas, Venezuela, were studied by the MIT and MSV assays. Nine samples (36%) were positive at 24 h, 10 (40%) were positive at 48 h and six (24%) were positive at 72 h by the MSV assay. With the MIT assay, 76% were positive at six days post inoculation and 12% were positive at 12 and 18 days post inoculation. One sample that was negative according to the MSV assay was positive with MIT on the 12th day. The MSV procedure exhibited a sensitivity of 96.2%, a specificity of 100%, a positive predictive value of 100% and a negative predictive value 80%. This procedure allowed for rapid rabies virus detection. MIT can be employed as an alternative method in laboratories without tissue culture facilities.

Building predictive models of soil particle-size distribution

Is it possible to build predictive models (PMs) of soil particle-size distribution (psd) in a region with complex geology and a young and unstable land-surface? The main objective of this study was to answer this question. A set of 339 soil samples from a small slope catchment in Southern Brazil was used to build PMs of psd in the surface soil layer. Multiple linear regression models were constructed using terrain attributes (elevation, slope, catchment area, convergence index, and topographic wetness index). The PMs explained more than half of the data variance. This performance is similar to (or even better than) that of the conventional soil mapping approach. For some size fractions, the PM performance can reach 70 %. Largest uncertainties were observed in geologically more complex areas. Therefore, significant improvements in the predictions can only be achieved if accurate geological data is made available. Meanwhile, PMs built on terrain attributes are efficient in predicting the particle-size distribution (psd) of soils in regions of complex geology.

Diagnosis of hepatic steatosis by contrast-enhanced abdominal computed tomography

Objective To evaluate the diagnostic capacity of abdominal computed tomography in the assessment of hepatic steatosis using the portal phase with a simplified calculation method as compared with the non-contrast-enhanced phase. Materials and Methods In the present study, 150 patients were retrospectively evaluated by means of non-contrast-enhanced and contrast-enhanced computed tomography. One hundred patients had hepatic steatosis and 50 were control subjects. For the diagnosis of hepatic steatosis in the portal phase, the authors considered a result of < 104 HU calculated by the formula [L - 0.3 × (0.75 × P + 0.25 × A)] / 0.7, where L, P and A represent the attenuation of the liver, of the main portal vein and abdominal aorta, respectively. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were calculated, using non-contrast-enhanced computed tomography as the reference standard. Results The simplified calculation method with portal phase for the diagnosis of hepatic steatosis showed 100% sensitivity, 36% specificity, negative predictive value of 100% and positive predictive value of 75.8%. The rate of false positive results was 64%. False negative results were not observed. Conclusion The portal phase presents an excellent sensitivity in the diagnosis of hepatic steatosis, as compared with the non-contrast-enhanced phase of abdominal computed tomography. However, the method has low specificity.