54 resultados para Internal model control


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Triatoma dimidiata is the most important Chagas disease insect vector in Central America as this species is primarily responsible for Trypanosoma cruzi transmission to humans, the protozoan parasite that causes Chagas disease. T. dimidiata sensu lato is a genetically diverse assemblage of taxa and effective vector control requires a clear understanding of the geographic distribution and epidemiological importance of its taxa. The nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS-2) is frequently used to infer the systematics of triatomines. However, oftentimes amplification and sequencing of ITS-2 fails, likely due to both the large polymerase chain reaction (PCR) product and polymerase slippage near the 5' end. To overcome these challenges we have designed new primers that amplify only the 3'-most 200 base pairs of ITS-2. This region distinguishes the ITS-2 group for 100% of known T. dimidiata haplotypes. Furthermore, we have developed a PCR-restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) approach to determine the ITS-2 group, greatly reducing, but not eliminating, the number of amplified products that need to be sequenced. Although there are limitations with this new PCR-RFLP approach, its use will help with understanding the geographic distribution of T. dimidiata taxa and can facilitate other studies characterising the taxa, e.g. their ecology, evolution and epidemiological importance, thus improving vector control.

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Malaria has always been an important public health problem in Brazil. The early history of Brazilian malaria and its control was powered by colonisation by Europeans and the forced relocation of Africans as slaves. Internal migration brought malaria to many regions in Brazil where, given suitableAnopheles mosquito vectors, it thrived. Almost from the start, officials recognised the problem malaria presented to economic development, but early control efforts were hampered by still developing public health control and ignorance of the underlying biology and ecology of malaria. Multiple regional and national malaria control efforts have been attempted with varying success. At present, the Amazon Basin accounts for 99% of Brazil’s reported malaria cases with regional increases in incidence often associated with large scale public works or migration. Here, we provide an exhaustive summary of primary literature in English, Spanish and Portuguese regarding Brazilian malaria control. Our goal was not to interpret the history of Brazilian malaria control from a particular political or theoretical perspective, but rather to provide a straightforward, chronological narrative of the events that have transpired in Brazil over the past 200 years and identify common themes.

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The dynamics of the control of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti Linnaeus, (Diptera, Culicidae) by Bacillus thuringiensis var israelensis has been related with the temperature, density and concentration of the insecticide. A mathematical model for biological control of Aedes aegypti with Bacillus thuringiensis var israelensis (Bti) was constructed by using data from the literature regarding the biology of the vector. The life cycle was described by differential equations. Lethal concentrations (LC50 and LC95) of Bti were determined in the laboratory under different experimental conditions. Temperature, colony, larvae density and bioinsecticide concentration presented marked differences in the analysis of the whole set of variables; although when analyzed individually, only the temperature and concentration showed changes. The simulations indicated an inverse relationship between temperature and mosquito population, nonetheless, faster growth of populations is reached at higher temperatures. As conclusion, the model suggests the use of integrated control strategies for immature and adult mosquitoes in order to achieve a reduction of Aedes aegypti.

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Soil organic matter (SOM) plays an important role in carbon (C) cycle and soil quality. Considering the complexity of factors that control SOM cycling and the long time it usually takes to observe changes in SOM stocks, modeling constitutes a very important tool to understand SOM cycling in forest soils. The following hypotheses were tested: (i) soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks would be higher after several rotations of eucalyptus than in low-productivity pastures; (ii) SOC values simulated by the Century model would describe the data better than the mean of observations. So, the aims of the current study were: (i) to evaluate the SOM dynamics using the Century model to simulate the changes of C stocks for two eucalyptus chronosequences in the Rio Doce Valley, Minas Gerais State, Brazil; and (ii) to compare the C stocks simulated by Century with the C stocks measured in soils of different Orders and regions of the Rio Doce Valley growing eucalyptus. In Belo Oriente (BO), short-rotation eucalyptus plantations had been cultivated for 4.0; 13.0, 22.0, 32.0 and 34.0 years, at a lower elevation and in a warmer climate, while in Virginópolis (VG), these time periods were 8.0, 19.0 and 33.0 years, at a higher elevation and in a milder climate. Soil samples were collected from the 0-20 cm layer to estimate C stocks. Results indicate that the C stocks simulated by the Century model decreased after 37 years of poorly managed pastures in areas previously covered by native forest in the regions of BO and VG. The substitution of poorly managed pastures by eucalyptus in the early 1970´s led to an average increase of C of 0.28 and 0.42 t ha-1 year-1 in BO and VG, respectively. The measured C stocks under eucalyptus in distinct soil Orders and independent regions with variable edapho-climate conditions were not far from the values estimated by the Century model (root mean square error - RMSE = 20.9; model efficiency - EF = 0.29) despite the opposite result obtained with the statistical procedure to test the identity of analytical methods. Only for lower soil C stocks, the model over-estimated the C stock in the 0-20 cm layer. Thus, the Century model is highly promising to detect changes in C stocks in distinct soil orders under eucalyptus, as well as to indicate the impact of harvest residue management on SOM in future rotations.

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Mathematical models have great potential to support land use planning, with the goal of improving water and land quality. Before using a model, however, the model must demonstrate that it can correctly simulate the hydrological and erosive processes of a given site. The SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was developed in the United States to evaluate the effects of conservation agriculture on hydrological processes and water quality at the watershed scale. This model was initially proposed for use without calibration, which would eliminate the need for measured hydro-sedimentologic data. In this study, the SWAT model was evaluated in a small rural watershed (1.19 km²) located on the basalt slopes of the state of Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil, where farmers have been using cover crops associated with minimum tillage to control soil erosion. Values simulated by the model were compared with measured hydro-sedimentological data. Results for surface and total runoff on a daily basis were considered unsatisfactory (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient - NSE < 0.5). However simulation results on monthly and annual scales were significantly better. With regard to the erosion process, the simulated sediment yields for all years of the study were unsatisfactory in comparison with the observed values on a daily and monthly basis (NSE values < -6), and overestimated the annual sediment yield by more than 100 %.

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Field studies were established in Zavalla and Oliveros, Argentina, during four years in order to optimize Johnsongrass (Sorghum halepense (L.) Pers.) chemical control by means of the thermal calendar model in comparison with other criteria (weed height or days after sowing). The effect of three application dates of postemergence herbicides was determined by visual control, density of tillers originated from rhizome bud regrowth, and from crown and shoot bud regrowth, and soybean yield. Following the thermal calendar model criterion, applications during the second date afforded the best control. Weed height for the first date showed little variability between experiments but was highly variable in the second and third application dates, achieving in some cases values greater than 120 cm. For all years, no significant differences were detected for crop yield between the first and second application dates, and yields were always lower for the third date. The greatest rhizome bud regrowth was observed for the earliest application date and the highest crown and shoot bud regrowth was determined for the last application date. Parameters associated with control efficiency showed the best behaviour for the second date. However, plant height at this moment may interfere with herbicide application and the variability exhibited by this parameter highlights the risk of determining control timing using only one decision criterion.

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The objective of this work was to evaluate the water flow computer model, WATABLE, using experimental field observations on water table management plots from a site located near Hastings, FL, USA. The experimental field had scale drainage systems with provisions for subirrigation with buried microirrigation and conventional seepage irrigation systems. Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) growing seasons from years 1996 and 1997 were used to simulate the hydrology of the area. Water table levels, precipitation, irrigation and runoff volumes were continuously monitored. The model simulated the water movement from a buried microirrigation line source and the response of the water table to irrigation, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and deep percolation. The model was calibrated and verified by comparing simulated results with experimental field observations. The model performed very well in simulating seasonal runoff, irrigation volumes, and water table levels during crop growth. The two-dimensional model can be used to investigate different irrigation strategies involving water table management control. Applications of the model include optimization of the water table depth for each growth stage, and duration, frequency, and rate of irrigation.

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Orange fruits from two seasons, in April and August 2006 representing late 2005 and early 2006 harvests respectively were cured in hot air at 36-37(0)C to 1%, 3%, 5% and 7% weight loss before storage at 28(0)C and 86% relative humidity (RH). The fruits were observed for incidence of decay, further weight loss, juice content, firmness or softening of the peel, total soluble solids (TSS), pH, titratable acidity, and colour during storage. Curing reduced the incidence of decay. All control fruits were rotten by day 21 in August harvest while 22.5% of the control was rotten by day 56 in the April harvest. Storage life was extended beyond 56 days in fruits cured with 1, 3, 5 and 7% in April harvest as there was no decay throughout, while decay incidence in August harvest was 88.9, 61.1, 22.2 and 31.3% in 1, 3, 5 and 7% respectively. Penicillium digitatum, Phytophthora sp., Alternaria citri and Collectotrichum gloeosporioides were among decay causing moulds detected. Control fruits lost more weight during storage than cured fruits did. Fruit rind hardening was more noticed in the control and those cured to 1% weight loss, especially from the April harvest. It was insignificant in other treatments in both trials. Titratable acidity, pH, juice content and TSS were not affected by the treatment. Colour change to yellow was however retarded by curing. Curing to 5% weight loss was best for decay control and quality retention.

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ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.