CITRICULTURE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR), and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the activity analyzed provides a risk of 42.8% to reach a NPV negative; however, the yield assessed by MIRR was 7.7%, higher than the yield from the reapplication of the positive cash flows. The financial investment pays itself after the fourteenth year of activity.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Monomer conversion of composite dental resins photoactivated by a halogen lamp and a LED: a FT-Raman spectroscopy study

Eighteen circular blocks of resins cured either by a LED or a halogen lamp (20, 40 and 60 s), had their top (T) and bottom (B) surfaces studied using a FT-Raman spectrometer. Systematic changes in the intensity of the methacrylate C=C stretching mode at 1638 cm-1 as a function of exposure duration were observed. The calculated degree of conversion (DC) ranged from 45.0% (B) to 52.0% (T) and from 49.0% (B) to 55.0% (T) for the LED and halogen lamp, respectively. LED and halogen light produced similar DC values with 40 and 60 s of irradiation.

De resíduo a insumo: a construção do caminho para uma química mais limpa através de um projeto de ensino

The discussion among teachers, students, and technicians about the destination of residues from chemistry laboratories led to a research project whose results were incorporated into a course in its daily practices. The treatment of the residues from argentimetric practices allowed us to establish cognitive relations of technological basis and of those related to the rising of the level of awareness about environmental aspects and social responsibility of chemistry professionals. The techniques and the results, from the economic point of view, namely that of value aggregation (metallic silver) and the conversion of the residue into input (potassium chromate solution) are shown.

Basic properties of potassium oxide supported on zeolite y studied by pyrrole-tpd and catalytic conversion of methylbutynol

ABSTRACT We report on the basic properties of zeolite NaY and potassium supported on NaY (K/NaY) assessed by pyrrole-TPD and MBOH transformation. Pyrrole-TPD revealed that impregnation of zeolite NaY with potassium promoted additional adsorption sites for pyrrole compared to parent zeolite. For zeolite with various potassium loadings, pyrrole adsorbed on K/NaY decreased with increased potassium loading. Reduction in pyrrole adsorption could be due to potassium hindering intrinsic basic sites (lattice oxygen), to oxide of potassium occluding in zeolite cavities restricting access for pyrrole, or to K2O reacting with pyrrole to form nondesorbed pyrrolate anions. On MBOH transformation, potassium almost completely suppressed NaY acid sites while K/NaY basicity increased with potassium loading.

PYROLIGNEOUS LIQUOR PRODUCED FROM ACACIA MEARNSII DE WILD WOOD UNDER CONTROLLED CONDITIONS AS A RENEWABLE SOURCE OF CHEMICALS

Acacia mearnsii de Wild (black wattle) is one of the most important trees planted in Southern Brazil for tannin extraction and charcoal production. The pyrolysis of the black wattle wood used for obtaining charcoal is performed in brick ovens, with the gas fraction being sent directly into the environment. The present study examines the condensable compounds present in the liquor produced from black wattle wood at different thermal degradation conditions, using gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry (GC/MS). Branches of black wattle were thermally degraded at controlled ambient and temperature conditions. Overall, a higher variety of compounds were obtained under atmospheric air pressure than under synthetic air pressure. Most of the tentatively identified compounds, such as carboxylic acids, phenols, aldehydes, and low molecular mass lignin fragments, such as guayacol, syringol, and eugenol, were products of lignin thermoconversion. Substituted aromatic compounds, such as vanillin, ethyl vanillin, and 2-methoxy-4-propeny-phenol, were also identified. At temperatures above 200 ºC, furan, 2-acetylfuran, methyl-2-furoate, and furfural, amongst others, were identified as polysaccharide derivatives from cellulose and hemicellulose depolymerization. This study evidences the need for adequate management of the condensable by-products of charcoal production, both for economic reasons and for controlling their potential environmental impact.

Economic viability of retrofiting emitters in center pivot irrigation systems

Although several studies have been conducted to evaluate the uniformity of water application under center pivot irrigation systems, there are few studies concerning the economic perspective of such coefficient. The aim of this study is to present a methodology to accomplish an economic analysis as support for the decision-making to retrofit emitters in center pivot irrigation systems, and to attribute an economic meaning to the uniformity coefficient of water application taking into account the response function productivity to the amount of water applied and the sale price of the crops. In the hypothetic calculation example considering the variation of revenue of potato crop under center pivot irrigation system, it was verified that the area with uniformity coefficient of water application of 90% brought an income increase of BR$ 1,992.00, considering an area about 1,0 ha. Thus, it can be concluded that the methodology presented has met the objectives proposed in the study and made it possible to attribute an economical meaning to the coefficient of water uniformity application.

Technical and economic analysis of replacing artificial lighting system to induction of photoperiod effect in begonia's seedlings in greenhouse

The type of artificial light used for inducing photoperiod effect in begonia's seedlings at greenhouse has fundamental importance in the growth and development of these plants and directly reflects in the electrical energy consumption used in this production process. The objective of this research was to analyze the technical and economic feasibility of replacing the current technology of artificial lighting used by the producers (incandescent lamps), by the technology of discharge lamps with the purpose of inducing photoperiod in a greenhouse. The analysis results indicate that the discharge lamp of 32 W Tubular Fluorescent discharge lamp was the one that presented the lower peak demand and lower average energy consumption of 85.01% compared to incandescent filament lamp of 100 W that is the technology of bigger consumption and currently used by the producer.

Economic optimization method to design telescope irrigation of multiples outlets

In this study is presented an economic optimization method to design telescope irrigation laterals (multidiameter) with regular spaced outlets. The proposed analytical hydraulic solution was validated by means of a pipeline composed of three different diameters. The minimum acquisition cost of the telescope pipeline was determined by an ideal arrangement of lengths and respective diameters for each one of the three segments. The mathematical optimization method based on the Lagrange multipliers provides a strategy for finding the maximum or minimum of a function subject to certain constraints. In this case, the objective function describes the acquisition cost of pipes, and the constraints are determined from hydraulic parameters as length of irrigation laterals and total head loss permitted. The developed analytical solution provides the ideal combination of each pipe segment length and respective diameter, resulting in a decreased of the acquisition cost.

Technical and economic analysis of irrigation of asparagus bean in protected environment

This experiment was conducted in Lavras - state of Minas Gerais (MG), Brazil, in a protected environment, and aims to estimate the irrigation depths that maximize productivity and economic returns in the cultivation of asparagus bean and analyze the economic viability of irrigation management. The experimental delineation was randomized blocks with five treatments and four replications. The treatments consisted of five drip irrigation depths: 40, 70, 100, 130 and 160% of water replacement depth up to field capacity. The depths of water that maximize productivity and economic returns were obtained from the regression model adjusted to productivity data, cost of product relations and water cost. The economic viability was achieved on the benefit/cost ratio basis. The depth with the maximum economic return was estimated in 434.4mm, with a productivity of 35,160.6kg ha-1, which is economically viable for the cultivation of asparagus bean, with a expected profitability of R$ 1.70 for every real invested.

Economic analysis of cashew early dwarf Crop BRS - 189 depending on water levels and doses of potassium fertilization

Water and fertilizer among the production factors are the elements that most restrict the production of cashew. The precise amount of these factors is essential to the success of the crop yield. This research aimed to determine the best factor-product ratio and analyze technical and economic indicators, of productivity of the cashew clone BRS 189 (Anacardium occidentale) to production factors water and potassium. The experiment was conducted from May 2009 to December 2009 in an experimental area of 56.0 m x 112.0 m in the irrigated Curu - Pentecoste, located in the municipality of Pentecoste, Ceará, Brazil. Production factors water (W) and potassium (K) were the independent variables and productivity (Y), the dependent variable. Ten statistical models that have proven satisfactory for obtaining production function were tested. The marginal rate of substitution was obtained through the ratio of the potassium marginal physical product and the water marginal physical product. The most suited model to the conditions of the experiment was the quadratic polynomial without intercept and interaction. Considering that the price of the water was 0.10 R$ mm -1, the price of the potassium 2.19 R$ kg -1 and the price of the cashew 0.60 R$ kg-1, the amounts of water and K2O to obtain the maximum net income were 6,349.1 L plant-1 of water and 128.7 g plant -1year, -1 respectively. Substituting the values obtained in the production function, the maximum net income was achieved with a yield of 7,496.8 kg ha-1 of cashew.

Technical and economic indicators of the yellow passion fruit tree irrigated with underground water supply

The research aimed to quantify technical and economic indicators of yellow passion fruit tree irrigated with fractions of irrigation with underground source of water, to generate information that helps farmers in decision making on the implementation of investment in irrigated fruit growing (yellow passion fruit). For this purpose, we used the passion fruit crop irrigated with Microjet type irrigation system, with conducting system in simple espaliers. The treatments consisted of five hours of application of the depth of water required by the crop with irrigation frequency of two days. The results showed that the highest yield (16660kg ha-1) was obtained with the fractionation of irrigation twice a day (50% to 7h and 50% to 21h30), which provided an increase in productivity of 54%, demonstrating the financial viability and being highly profitable to the interest rate of 2% per year, with low sensitivity of financial risk to real interest rates above the prevailing market.

Economic analysis for sizing of sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) mechanized harvesting

Sugarcane has a significant role on Brazilian agribusiness economy. The harvesting cane is considered as one of the most important operations of the process for it has to attend the raw material demanded by the sugar mill in quality and a competitive cost. The objective of this work it is it of analyzing, of systemic way, the variables influence on economical and operational performance in sugarcane mechanized harvesting process for sizing of machines. For this purpose a model called "ColheCana", was developed in a spreadsheet and in a programming language. The results showed that the field efficiency and harvester´s initial value are variables of great impact in the cost and that there is a maximum area that one equipment can attend and for this area the cost is minimum.

Technical-economic analysis of different lighting systems for broiler poultry

ABSTRACT Broiler poultry is highly dependent on artificial lightening. Power consumption costs of artificial lighting systems is the second largest expense related to broiler industry, second only to feed expenses. Therefore, the current study focused to analyze technical and economic feasibility of replacing incandescent lamps already used in aviaries with other lamp types. Costs related to power consumption, implementation and maintenance of the lighting systems were evaluated with the aid of financial mathematics using net present value, return over investment and payback. Systems composed of six lamp types were analyzed in two different configurations to meet the minimum illuminance of 5 and 20 lux and for use in conventional sheds and dark house. The lamps tested were incandescent (LI) of 100 W, compact fluorescent (CFL) of 34 W, mixed (ML) 160 W sodium vapor (SVL) of 70 W, tubular fluorescent T8 (TFL T8) of 40 W and tubular fluorescent T5 (TFL T5) of 28 W. For the systems tested, it was found that the tubular fluorescent lamps T8 and T5 showed the best results of technical and economic feasibility.

Economic losses due to bovine brucellosis in Brazil

Brucellosis is an important zoonosis of worldwide distribution. Reliable epidemiologic brucellosis data covering approximately 90% of the cattle population in Brazil have been recently published. Therefore, considering the scarcity of information regarding the economic impact of bovine brucellosis in Brazil, the goal of this study was to estimate economic impact of brucellosis on the Brazilian cattle industry. Several parameters including abortion and perinatal mortality rates, temporary infertility, replacement costs, mortality, veterinary costs, milk and meat losses were considered in the model. Bovine brucellosis in Brazil results in an estimated loss of R$ 420,12 or R$ 226,47 for each individual dairy or beef infected female above 24 months of age, respectively. The total estimated losses in Brazil attributed to bovine brucellosis were estimated to be approximately R$ 892 million (equivalent to about 448 million American dollars). Every 1% increase or decrease in prevalence is expected to increase or decrease the economic burden of brucellosis in approximately 155 million Reais.