The influence of the conservation status and changes in the rainfall regime on forest-savanna mosaic dynamics in Northern Brazilian Amazonia

Coupled carbon/climate models are predicting changes in Amazon carbon and water cycles for the near future, with conversion of forest into savanna-like vegetation. However, empirical data to support these models are still scarce for Amazon. Facing this scenario, we investigated whether conservation status and changes in rainfall regime have influenced the forest-savanna mosaic over 20 years, from 1986 to 2006, in a transitional area in Northern Amazonia. By applying a spectral linear mixture model to a Landsat-5-TM time series, we identified protected savanna enclaves within a strictly protected nature reserve (Maracá Ecological Station - MES) and non-protected forest islands at its outskirts and compared their areas among 1986/1994/2006. The protected savanna enclaves decreased 26% in the 20-years period at an average rate of 0.131 ha year-1, with a greater reduction rate observed during times of higher precipitation, whereas the non-protected forest islands remained stable throughout the period of study, balancing the encroachment of forests into the savanna during humid periods and savannization during reduced rainfall periods. Thus, keeping favorable climate conditions, the MES conservation status would continue to favor the forest encroachment upon savanna, while the non-protected outskirt areas would remain resilient to disturbance regimes. However, if the increases in the frequency of dry periods predicted by climate models for this region are confirmed, future changes in extension and directions of forest limits will be affected, disrupting ecological services as carbon storage and the maintenance of local biodiversity.

Immediate and long term evolution of valve replacement in children less than 12 years old

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this work was the follow-up and evaluation of valve replacement in children under 12 years of age. METHODS: Forty-four children less than 12 years old were underwent valve replacement at INCOR-HCFMUSP between January 1986 and December 1992. Forty (91%) were rheumatic, 39 (88.7%) were in functional classes II or IV, 19 (43.2%) were operated upon on an emergency basis, and 6 (13.6%) had atrial fibrillation. Biological prostheses (BP) were employed in 26 patients (59.1%), and mechanical prostheses (MP) in 18 (40.9%). Mitral valves were replaced in 30 (68.7%), aortic valves in 8 (18.2%), a tricuspid valve in 1 (2.3%), and double (aortic and mitral) valves in 5 (11.4) of the patients. RESULTS: Hospital mortality was of 4.5% (2 cases). The mean follow-up period was 5.8 years. Re-operations occurred in 63.3% of the patients with BP and in 12.5% of those with MP (p=0.002). Infectious endocarditis was present in 26.3% of the BP, but in none of the cases of MP (p=0.049). Thrombosis occurred in 2 (12.5%) and hemorrhage in one (6.5%) of the patients with a MP. Delayed mortality occurred in 5 (11.9%) of the patients over a mean period of 2.6 years; four had had BP and one had a MP (NS). Actuarial survival and re-operation-free curves after 10 years were respectively, 82.5±7.7 (SD)% and 20.6±15.9%. CONCLUSION: Patients with MP required fewer re-operation, had less infectious endocarditis and lower late mortality rates compared with patients with bioprostheses. The former, therefore, appear to be the best valve replacement for pediatric patients.