Impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climate risk for cotton cultivation in Brazil

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of the temperature increase forecasted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on agricultural zoning of cotton production in Brazil. The Northeastern region showed the highest decrease in the low-risk area for cotton cultivation due to the projected temperature increase. This area in the Brazilian Northeast may decrease from 83 million ha in 2010 to approximately 71 million ha in 2040, which means 15% reduction in 30 years. Southeastern and Center-Western regions had small decrease in areas suitable for cotton production until 2040, while the Northern region showed no reduction in these areas. Temperature increase will not benefit cotton cultivation in Brazil because dimension of low-risk areas for economic cotton production may decrease.

Climate change and future scenarios for palisade grass production in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

The objective of this work was to analyze future scenarios for palisade grass yield subjected to climate change for the state of São Paulo, Brazil. An empirical crop model was used to estimate yields, according to growing degree-days adjusted by one drought attenuation factor. Climate data from 1963 to 2009 of 23 meteorological stations were used for current climate conditions. Downscaled outputs of two general circulation models were used to project future climate for the 2013-2040 and 2043-2070 periods, considering two contrasting scenarios of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (high and low). Annual dry matter yield should be from 14 to 42% higher than the current one, depending on the evaluated scenario. Yield variation between seasons (seasonality) and years is expected to increase. The increase of dry matter accumulation will be higher in the rainy season than in the dry season, and this result is more evident for soils with low-water storage capacity. The results varied significantly between regions (<10% to >60%). Despite their higher climate potential, warmer regions will probably have a lower increase in future forage production.

Leaf nutritional levels in peach and nectarine grown in subtropical climate

The study evaluated the leaf nutritional levels of peach and nectarine trees under subtropical climate in order to improve the fertilization practices. The experiment was carried out in São Paulo state University, Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil. The experimental design consisted of subdivided plots, in which plots corresponded to cultivars and subplots to the leaf sample periods. The evaluated peach cultivars were: Marli, Turmalina, Precocinho, Jubileu, Cascata 968, Cascata 848, CP 951C, CP 9553CYN, and Tropic Beauty, and that of nectarine was 'Sun Blaze'. The sample periods were: after harvest, plants in vegetative period; dormancy; beginning of flowering and fruiting (standard sample). Results indicated significant variations in the levels of N, P, K, Ca, Mg, S, B, Cu, Fe, Mn and Zn for the sampling period and in N, Ca, Mg, S, B, Fe and Mn levels for the cultivars.

Mating disruption with low density diffusers for the management of oriental fruit moths (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in apple orchards under subtropical climate in southern Brazil

The oriental fruit moth, Grapholita molesta Busck, and fruit flies, Anastrepha fraterculus L., are the important apple pests under Subtropical climate in Southern Brazil, and control is normally accomplished with insecticides. An alternative strategy for the control of G. molesta is mating disruption, through the use of pheromones. Mating disruption strategies using a low density of dispensers (20) per hectare were tested in comparison with conventional pesticides for control of G. molesta in commercial Gala apple orchards in Fraiburgo, SC, for a period of five years. The average field efficiency period of mating disruption formulation over five years was 113 days. In this period the mating interruption index on mating disruption plots was 84.8% over five years. Damage to Gala apples by oriental moth larvae was low (<0.1%) in mating disruption plots but did not differ from conventional plots, except in the third year. The use of mating disruption allowed for an average reduction of 5.2 insecticide treatments per year in Gala orchards during field efficiency period. It was necessary to apply 1.0 and 1.2 applications of insecticide to control of G. molesta and A. fraterculus, respectively. Mating disruption with a low density of diffusers proved to be an effective alternative to conventional methods for control of G. molesta in Gala apple orchards in subtropical climate in southern Brazil.

Incubation period of Hemileia vastatrix in coffee plants in Brazil simulated under climate change

Risk analysis of climate change on plant diseases has great importance for agriculture since it allows the evaluation of management strategies to minimize future damages. This work aimed to simulate future scenarios of coffee rust (Hemileia vastatrix) epidemics by elaborating geographic distribution maps using a model that estimates the pathogen incubation period and the output from three General Circulation Models (CSIRO-Mk3.0, INM-CM3.0, and MIROC3.2.medres). The climatological normal from 1961-1990 was compared with that of the decades 2020s, 2050s and 2080s using scenarios A2 and B1 from the IPCC. Maps were prepared with a spatial resolution of 0.5 × 0.5 degrees of latitude and longitude for ten producing states in Brazil. The climate variables used were maximum and minimum monthly temperatures. The maps obtained in scenario A2 showed a tendency towards a reduction in the incubation period when future scenarios are compared with the climatological normal from 1961-1990. A reduction in the period was also observed in scenario B1, although smaller than that in scenario A2.

An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil

Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 ºC, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH > 90%); ii) medium risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH > 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease.

Effects of global climate changes on geographical distribution patterns of economically important plant species in cerrado

Different climate models, modeling methods and carbon emission scenarios were used in this paper to evaluate the effects of future climate changes on geographical distribution of species of economic and cultural importance across the Cerrado biome. As the results of several studies have shown, there are still many uncertainties associated with these projections, although bioclimatic models are still widely used and effective method to evaluate the consequences for biodiversity of these climate changes. In this article, it was found that 90% of these uncertainties are related to methods of modeling, although, regardless of the uncertainties, the results revealed that the studied species will reduce about 78% of their geographic distribution in Cerrado. For an effective work on the conservation of these species, many studies still need to be carried out, although it is already possible to observe that climate change will have a strong influence on the pattern of distribution of these species.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE VARIABLES, TRUNK GROWTH RATE AND WOOD DENSITY OF Eucalyptus grandis W. Mill ex Maiden TREES

ABSTRACT Climatic conditions stimulates the cambial activity of plants, and cause significant changes in trunk diameter growth and wood characteristics. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of climate variables in the diameter growth rate of the stem and the wood density of Eucalyptus grandis trees in different classes of the basal area. A total of 25 Eucalyptus trees at 22 months of age were selected according to the basal area distribution. Dendrometer bands were installed at the height of 1.30 meters (DBH) to monitor the diameter growth every 14 days, for 26 months. After measuring growth, the trees were felled and wood discs were removed at the DBH level to determine the radial density profile through x-ray microdensitometry and then re-scale the average values every 14 days. Climatic variables for the monitoring period were obtained and grouped every 14 days. The effect of the climate variables was determined by maximum and minimum growth periods in assessing trunk growth. These growth periods were related with precipitation, average temperature and relative air humidity. The re-scaled wood density values, calculated using the radial growth of the tree trunks measured accurately with steel dendrometers, enabled the determination of the relationship of small changes in wood density and the effect of the climatic variations and growth rate of eucalyptus tree trunks. A high sensitivity of the wood density to variation in precipitation levels was found.

Agricultural engineering at UNICAMP: undergraduate student dropout analysis

Nowadays, dropping out in B.Sc. courses practically occurs in all Universities of the contemporary world. Undergraduate student withdraw could means several losses as, to the student, not to graduate, to the teacher, for not accomplishing his goal as educator, to the university, for not attending its mission, to the society, economic and social losses and also to the family for unfulfilling the dreams. The objective of this research is to present a quantitative study on the dropping out rate in the Agricultural Engineering B.Sc. program (BSAGENG) at State University of Campinas (UNICAMP), seeking to contribute to the understanding of this issue. It has been determined the dropping out rate from 1995 to 2006 based on the university official data, by employing four different methods of calculation. Three of the methods revealed that dropping out rate is very close to the graduation index, i.e., close to 50%. Regardless of the adopted method for the dropping rate estimation and the statistics demonstrating that the agricultural engineering undergraduate course at UNICAMP figures falls within similar courses normality in Brazil, it should be recognized that a public institution of education should be concerned in presenting such figures. A detailed and deep analysis must be outlined in further studies seeking for specific actions aiming to reduce dropping out process.

Climate variations in greenhouse cultivated with gerbera and relationship with external conditions

Black meshes used in greenhouses provide shade to plants, affecting photosynthesis and presenting certain properties that change the microclimatic conditions in these environments. The objective of this study was to evaluate the variation in climate elements in greenhouse cultivated with gerbera (Gerbera jamesonii, Vr. Rambo) in relation to external conditions and the reference evapotranspiration (ETo) at Teresina, State of Piauí, Brazil. The measurements were obtained from July to October 2007 by an automatic data acquisition system installed inside and outside the greenhouse. The global solar radiation, evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were estimated. The results showed that major effect of the shading occurred on the mean air temperature during the 120 days, making it higher than the external environment. Inside the greenhouse, mean values of relative air humidity, reference evapotranspiração, global solar radiation and wind speed were lower compared to those outside the greenhouse.

Climate risk in maize crop in the northeastern of Brazil based on climate change scenarios

This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climatic risk in maize crop cultivated in the Northeastern of Brazil, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. The water balance model, combined with geospatial technologies, was used to identify areas of the study region where the crops could suffer yield restrictions due to climate change. The data used in the study were the time series of rainfall with at least 30 years of daily data, crop coefficients, potential evapotranspiration and duration of the crop cycle. The scenarios of the increasing of air temperature used in the simulations were of 1.5ºC, 3ºC and 5ºC. The sowing date of maize crop from January to March appears to be less affected by warming scenarios than the sowing in November and December or April and May.

Climate trends in the municipality of Pelotas, state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

ABSTRACTChanges in the frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events have been pointed out as a likely impact of global warming. In this context, this study aimed to detect climate change in series of extreme minimum and maximum air temperature of Pelotas, State of Rio Grande do Sul, (1896 - 2011) and its influence on the probability of occurrence of these variables. We used the general extreme value distribution (GEV) in its stationary and non-stationary forms. In the latter case, GEV parameters are variable over time. On the basis of goodness-of-fit tests and of the maximum likelihood method, the GEV model in which the location parameter increases over time presents the best fit of the daily minimum air temperature series. Such result describes a significant increase in the mean values of this variable, which indicates a potential reduction in the frequency of frosts. The daily maximum air temperature series is also described by a non-stationary model, whose location parameter decreases over time, and the scale parameter related to sample variance rises between the beginning and end of the series. This result indicates a drop in the mean of daily maximum air temperature values and increased dispersion of the sample data.

Spatialization of climate, physical and socioeconomic factors that affect the dairy goat production in Brazil and their impact on animal breeding decisions

Brazil has high climate, soil and environmental diversity, as well as distinct socioeconomic and political realities, what results in differences among the political administrative regions of the country. The objective of this study was to determine spatial distribution of the physical, climatic and socioeconomic aspects that best characterize the production of dairy goats in Brazil. Production indices of milk per goat, goat production, milk production, as well as temperature range, mean temperature, precipitation, normalized difference vegetation index, relative humidity, altitude, agricultural farms; farms with native pasture, farms with good quality pasture, farms with water resources, farms that receive technical guidance, family farming properties, non-familiar farms and the human development index were evaluated. The multivariate analyses were carried out to spatialize climatic, physical and socioeconomic variables and so differenciate the Brazilian States and Regions. The highest yields of milk and goat production were observed in the Northeast. The Southeast Region had the second highest production of milk, followed by the South, Midwest and North. Multivariate analysis revealed distinctions between clusters of political-administrative regions of Brazil. The climatic variables were most important to discriminate between regions of Brazil. Therefore, it is necessary to implement animal breeding programs to meet the needs of each region.

Insights on bovine genetic engineering and cloning

Transgenic technology has become an essential tool for the development of animal biotechnologies, and animal cloning through somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT) enabled the generation of genetically modified animals utilizing previously modified and selected cell lineages as nuclei donors, assuring therefore the generation of homogeneous herds expressing the desired modification. The present study aimed to discuss the use of SCNT as an important methodology for the production of transgenic herds, and also some recent insights on genetic modification of nuclei donors and possible effects of gene induction of pluripotency on SCNT.