Uterine Doppler velocimetry of the uterine arteries in the second and third trimesters for the prediction of gestational outcome

PURPOSE: The aim of this longitudinal study was to investigate the value of uterine artery Doppler sonography during the second and third trimesters in the prediction of adverse pregnancy outcome in low-risk women. METHODS: From July 2011 to August 2012, a total of 205 singleton pregnant women presenting at our antenatal clinic were enrolled in this prospective study and were assessed for baseline demographic and obstetric data. They underwent ultrasound evaluation at the time of second and third trimesters, both included Doppler assessment of bilateral uterine arteries to determine the values of the pulsatility index (PI) and resistance index (RI) and presence of early diastolic notch. The endpoint of this study was assessing the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of Doppler ultrasonography of the uterine artery, for the prediction of adverse pregnancy outcomes including preeclampsia, stillbirth, placental abruption and preterm labor. RESULTS: The mean age of cases was 26.4±5.11. The uterine artery PI and RI values for both second (PI: 1.1±0.42 versus 1.53±0.59, p=0.002; RI: 0.55±0.09 versus 0.72±0.13, p=0.000 respectively) and third-trimester (PI: 0.77±0.31 versus 1.09±0.46, p=0.000; RI: 0.46±0.10 versus 0.60±0.14, p=0.010 respectively) evaluations were significantly higher in patients with adverse pregnancy outcome than in normal women. Combination of PI and RI >95th percentile and presence of bilateral notch in second trimester get sensitivity and specificity of 36.1 and 97% respectively, while these measures were 57.5 and 98.2% in third trimester. CONCLUSIONS: According to our study, it seems that uterine artery Doppler may be a valuable tool for the prediction of a variety of adverse outcomes in second and third trimesters.

Criteria for prediction of metastatic axillary lymph nodes in early-stage breast cancer

PURPOSE: To estimate the likelihood of axillary lymph node involvement for patients with early-stage breast cancer, based on a variety of clinical and pathological factors. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was done in hospital databases from 1999 to 2007. Two hundred thirty-nine patients were diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer. Predictive factors, such as patient age, tumor size, lymphovascular invasion, histological grade and immunohistochemical subtype were analyzed to identify variables that may be associated with axillary lymph node metastasis. RESULTS: Patients with tumors that are negative for estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, and HER2 had approximately a 90% lower chance of developing lymph node metastasis than those with luminal A tumors (e.g., ER+ and/or PR+ and HER2-) - Odds Ratio: 0.11; 95% confidence interval: 0.01-0.88; p=0.01. Furthermore, the risk for lymph node metastasis of luminal A tumors seemed to decrease as patient age increased, and it was directly correlated with tumor size. CONCLUSION: The molecular classification of early-stage breast cancer using immunohistochemistry may help predicting the probability of developing axillary lymph node metastasis. Further studies are needed to optimize predictions for nodal involvement, with the aim of aiding the decision-making process for breast cancer treatment.

Numerical study of Petrov-Galerkin formulations for the shallow water wave equations

The behavior of Petrov-Galerkin formulations for shallow water wave equations is evaluated numerically considering typical one-dimensional propagation problems. The formulations considered here use stabilizing operators to improve classical Galerkin approaches. Their advantages and disadvantages are pointed out according to the intrinsic time scale (free parameter) which has a particular importance in this kind of problem. The influence of the Courant number and the performance of the formulation in dealing with spurious oscillations are adressed.

Fluid dynamic modelling and simulation of circulating fluidized bed reactors: importance of the interface turbulence transfer

The main objective of this work is to analyze the importance of the gas-solid interface transfer of the kinetic energy of the turbulent motion on the accuracy of prediction of the fluid dynamic of Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) reactors. CFB reactors are used in a variety of industrial applications related to combustion, incineration and catalytic cracking. In this work a two-dimensional fluid dynamic model for gas-particle flow has been used to compute the porosity, the pressure, and the velocity fields of both phases in 2-D axisymmetrical cylindrical co-ordinates. The fluid dynamic model is based on the two fluid model approach in which both phases are considered to be continuous and fully interpenetrating. CFB processes are essentially turbulent. The model of effective stress on each phase is that of a Newtonian fluid, where the effective gas viscosity was calculated from the standard k-epsilon turbulence model and the transport coefficients of the particulate phase were calculated from the kinetic theory of granular flow (KTGF). This work shows that the turbulence transfer between the phases is very important for a better representation of the fluid dynamics of CFB reactors, especially for systems with internal recirculation and high gradients of particle concentration. Two systems with different characteristics were analyzed. The results were compared with experimental data available in the literature. The results were obtained by using a computer code developed by the authors. The finite volume method with collocated grid, the hybrid interpolation scheme, the false time step strategy and SIMPLEC (Semi-Implicit Method for Pressure Linked Equations - Consistent) algorithm were used to obtain the numerical solution.

A New Model to Determine the Dispersion of Fatigue Damage Evaluations

Reliable predictions of remaining lives of civil or mechanical structures subjected to fatigue damage are very difficult to be made. In general, fatigue damage is extremely sensitive to the random variations of material mechanical properties, environment and loading. These variations may induce large dispersions when the structural fatigue life has to be predicted. Wirsching (1970) mentions dispersions of the order of 30 to 70 % of the mean calculated life. The presented paper introduces a model to estimate the fatigue damage dispersion based on known statistical distributions of the fatigue parameters (material properties and loading). The model is developed by expanding into Taylor series the set of equations that describe fatigue damage for crack initiation.

Modeling of the Fluid-Structure Interaction in Inelastic Piping Systems

In many engineering applications, compliant piping systems conveying liquids are subjected to inelastic deformations due to severe pressure surges such as plastic tubes in modern water supply transmission lines and metallic pipings in nuclear power plants. In these cases the design of such systems may require an adequate modeling of the interactions between the fluid dynamics and the inelastic structural pipe motions. The reliability of the prediction of fluid-pipe behavior depends mainly on the adequacy of the constitutive equations employed in the analysis. In this paper it is proposed a systematic and general approach to consistently incorporate different kinds of inelastic behaviors of the pipe material in a fluid-structure interaction analysis. The main feature of the constitutive equations considered in this work is that a very simple numerical technique can be used for solving the coupled equations describing the dynamics of the fluid and pipe wall. Numerical examples concerning the analysis of polyethylene and stainless steel pipe networks are presented to illustrate the versatility of the proposed approach.

Growth and Development of Purple Nutsedge Based on Days or Thermal Units

This work was carried out with the objective of elaborating mathematical models to predict growth and development of purple nutsedge (Cyperus rotundus) based on days or accumulated thermal units (growing degree days). Thus, two independent trials were developed, the first with a decreasing photoperiod (March to July) and the second with an increasing photoperiod (August to November). In each trial, ten assessments of plant growth and development were performed, quantifying total dry matter and the species phenology. After that, phenology was fit to first degree equations, considering individual trials or their grouping. In the same way, the total dry matter was fit to logistic-type models. In all regressions four temporal scales possibilities were assessed for the x axis: accumulated days or growing degree days (GDD) with base temperatures (Tb) of 10, 12 and 15 oC. For both photoperiod conditions, growth and development of purple nutsedge were adequately fit to prediction mathematical models based on accumulated thermal units, highlighting Tb = 12 oC. Considering GDD calculated with Tb = 12 oC, purple nutsedge phenology may be predicted by y = 0.113x, while species growth may be predicted by y = 37.678/(1+(x/509.353)-7.047).

Early prediction of poor outcome in patients with acute asthma in the emergency room

Early identification of patients who need hospitalization or patients who should be discharged would be helpful for the management of acute asthma in the emergency room. The objective of the present study was to examine the clinical and pulmonary functional measures used during the first hour of assessment of acute asthma in the emergency room in order to predict the outcome. We evaluated 88 patients. The inclusion criteria were age between 12 and 55 years, forced expiratory volume in the first second below 50% of predicted value, and no history of chronic disease or pregnancy. After baseline evaluation, all patients were treated with 2.5 mg albuterol delivered by nebulization every 20 min in the first hour and 60 mg of intravenous methylprednisolone. Patients were reevaluated after 60 min of treatment. Sixty-five patients (73.9%) were successfully treated and discharged from the emergency room (good responders), and 23 (26.1%) were hospitalized or were treated and discharged with relapse within 10 days (poor responders). A predictive index was developed: peak expiratory flow rates after 1 h <=0% of predicted values and accessory muscle use after 1 h. The index ranged from 0 to 2. An index of 1 or higher presented a sensitivity of 74.0, a specificity of 69.0, a positive predictive value of 46.0, and a negative predictive value of 88.0. It was possible to predict outcome in the first hour of management of acute asthma in the emergency room when the index score was 0 or 2.

Prediction of exposed domains of envelope glycoprotein in Indian HIV-1 isolates and experimental confirmation of their immunogenicity in humans

We describe the impact of subtype differences on the seroreactivity of linear antigenic epitopes in envelope glycoprotein of HIV-1 isolates from different geographical locations. By computer analysis, we predicted potential antigenic sites of envelope glycoprotein (gp120 and gp4l) of this virus. For this purpose, after fetching sequences of proteins of interest from data banks, values of hydrophilicity, flexibility, accessibility, inverted hydrophobicity, and secondary structure were considered. We identified several potential antigenic epitopes in a B subtype strain of envelope glycoprotein of HIV-1 (IIIB). Solid- phase peptide synthesis methods of Merrifield and Fmoc chemistry were used for synthesizing peptides. These synthetic peptides corresponded mainly to the C2, V3 and CD4 binding sites of gp120 and some parts of the ectodomain of gp41. The reactivity of these peptides was tested by ELISA against different HIV-1-positive sera from different locations in India. For two of these predicted epitopes, the corresponding Indian consensus sequences (LAIERYLKQQLLGWG and DIIGDIRQAHCNISEDKWNET) (subtype C) were also synthesized and their reactivity was tested by ELISA. These peptides also distinguished HIV-1-positive sera of Indians with C subtype infections from sera from HIV-negative subjects.

Clinical signs of pneumonia in children: association with and prediction of diagnosis by fuzzy sets theory

The present study compares the performance of stochastic and fuzzy models for the analysis of the relationship between clinical signs and diagnosis. Data obtained for 153 children concerning diagnosis (pneumonia, other non-pneumonia diseases, absence of disease) and seven clinical signs were divided into two samples, one for analysis and other for validation. The former was used to derive relations by multi-discriminant analysis (MDA) and by fuzzy max-min compositions (fuzzy), and the latter was used to assess the predictions drawn from each type of relation. MDA and fuzzy were closely similar in terms of prediction, with correct allocation of 75.7 to 78.3% of patients in the validation sample, and displaying only a single instance of disagreement: a patient with low level of toxemia was mistaken as not diseased by MDA and correctly taken as somehow ill by fuzzy. Concerning relations, each method provided different information, each revealing different aspects of the relations between clinical signs and diagnoses. Both methods agreed on pointing X-ray, dyspnea, and auscultation as better related with pneumonia, but only fuzzy was able to detect relations of heart rate, body temperature, toxemia and respiratory rate with pneumonia. Moreover, only fuzzy was able to detect a relationship between heart rate and absence of disease, which allowed the detection of six malnourished children whose diagnoses as healthy are, indeed, disputable. The conclusion is that even though fuzzy sets theory might not improve prediction, it certainly does enhance clinical knowledge since it detects relationships not visible to stochastic models.

Fuzzy expert system in the prediction of neonatal resuscitation

In view of the importance of anticipating the occurrence of critical situations in medicine, we propose the use of a fuzzy expert system to predict the need for advanced neonatal resuscitation efforts in the delivery room. This system relates the maternal medical, obstetric and neonatal characteristics to the clinical conditions of the newborn, providing a risk measurement of need of advanced neonatal resuscitation measures. It is structured as a fuzzy composition developed on the basis of the subjective perception of danger of nine neonatologists facing 61 antenatal and intrapartum clinical situations which provide a degree of association with the risk of occurrence of perinatal asphyxia. The resulting relational matrix describes the association between clinical factors and risk of perinatal asphyxia. Analyzing the inputs of the presence or absence of all 61 clinical factors, the system returns the rate of risk of perinatal asphyxia as output. A prospectively collected series of 304 cases of perinatal care was analyzed to ascertain system performance. The fuzzy expert system presented a sensitivity of 76.5% and specificity of 94.8% in the identification of the need for advanced neonatal resuscitation measures, considering a cut-off value of 5 on a scale ranging from 0 to 10. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.93. The identification of risk situations plays an important role in the planning of health care. These preliminary results encourage us to develop further studies and to refine this model, which is intended to implement an auxiliary system able to help health care staff to make decisions in perinatal care.

Utility of a novel risk score for prediction of ventricular tachycardia and cardiac death in chronic Chagas disease - the SEARCH-RIO study

The SEARCH-RIO study prospectively investigated electrocardiogram (ECG)-derived variables in chronic Chagas disease (CCD) as predictors of cardiac death and new onset ventricular tachycardia (VT). Cardiac arrhythmia is a major cause of death in CCD, and electrical markers may play a significant role in risk stratification. One hundred clinically stable outpatients with CCD were enrolled in this study. They initially underwent a 12-lead resting ECG, signal-averaged ECG, and 24-h ambulatory ECG. Abnormal Q-waves, filtered QRS duration, intraventricular electrical transients (IVET), 24-h standard deviation of normal RR intervals (SDNN), and VT were assessed. Echocardiograms assessed left ventricular ejection fraction. Predictors of cardiac death and new onset VT were identified in a Cox proportional hazard model. During a mean follow-up of 95.3 months, 36 patients had adverse events: 22 new onset VT (mean±SD, 18.4±4‰/year) and 20 deaths (26.4±1.8‰/year). In multivariate analysis, only Q-wave (hazard ratio, HR=6.7; P<0.001), VT (HR=5.3; P<0.001), SDNN<100 ms (HR=4.0; P=0.006), and IVET+ (HR=3.0; P=0.04) were independent predictors of the composite endpoint of cardiac death and new onset VT. A prognostic score was developed by weighting points proportional to beta coefficients and summing-up: Q-wave=2; VT=2; SDNN<100 ms=1; IVET+=1. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis optimized the cutoff value at >1. In 10,000 bootstraps, the C-statistic of this novel score was non-inferior to a previously validated (Rassi) score (0.89±0.03 and 0.80±0.05, respectively; test for non-inferiority: P<0.001). In CCD, surface ECG-derived variables are predictors of cardiac death and new onset VT.

Use of the Wasserman equation in optimization of the duration of the power ramp in a cardiopulmonary exercise test: a study of Brazilian men

This study aimed to analyze the agreement between measurements of unloaded oxygen uptake and peak oxygen uptake based on equations proposed by Wasserman and on real measurements directly obtained with the ergospirometry system. We performed an incremental cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET), which was applied to two groups of sedentary male subjects: one apparently healthy group (HG, n=12) and the other had stable coronary artery disease (n=16). The mean age in the HG was 47±4 years and that in the coronary artery disease group (CG) was 57±8 years. Both groups performed CPET on a cycle ergometer with a ramp-type protocol at an intensity that was calculated according to the Wasserman equation. In the HG, there was no significant difference between measurements predicted by the formula and real measurements obtained in CPET in the unloaded condition. However, at peak effort, a significant difference was observed between oxygen uptake (V˙O2)peak(predicted)and V˙O2peak(real)(nonparametric Wilcoxon test). In the CG, there was a significant difference of 116.26 mL/min between the predicted values by the formula and the real values obtained in the unloaded condition. A significant difference in peak effort was found, where V˙O2peak(real)was 40% lower than V˙O2peak(predicted)(nonparametric Wilcoxon test). There was no agreement between the real and predicted measurements as analyzed by Lin’s coefficient or the Bland and Altman model. The Wasserman formula does not appear to be appropriate for prediction of functional capacity of volunteers. Therefore, this formula cannot precisely predict the increase in power in incremental CPET on a cycle ergometer.

Stability studies and shelf life estimation of a soy-based dessert

This work is aimed at evaluating the physicochemical, physical, chromatic, microbiological, and sensorial stability of a non-dairy dessert elaborated with soy, guava juice, and oligofructose for 60 days at refrigerated storage as well as to estimate its shelf life time. The titrable acidity, pH, instrumental color, water activity, ascorbic acid, and physical stability were measured. Panelists (n = 50) from the campus community used a hedonic scale to assess the acceptance, purchase intent, creaminess, flavor, taste, acidity, color, and overall appearance of the dessert during 60 days. The data showed that the parameters differed significantly (p < 0.05) from the initial time, and they could be fitted in mathematical equations with coefficient of determination above 71%, aiming to consider them suitable for prediction purposes. Creaminess and acceptance did not differ statistically in the 60-day period; taste, flavor, and acidity kept a suitable hedonic score during storage. Notwithstanding, the sample showed good physical stability against gravity and presented more than 15% of the Brazilian Daily Recommended Value of copper, iron, and ascorbic acid. The product shelf life estimation found was 79 days considering the overall acceptance, acceptance index and purchase intent.

Application of mathematical models for the prediction of adsorption isotherms in solid mixture for mango powder refreshment

Solid mixtures for refreshment are already totally integrated to the Brazilian consumers' daily routine, because of their quick preparation method, yield and reasonable price - quite lower if compared to 'ready-to-drink' products or products for prompt consumption, what makes them economically more accessible to low-income populations. Within such a context, the aim of this work was to evaluate the physicochemical and mineral composition, as well as the hygroscopic behavior of four different brands of solid mixture for mango refreshment. The BET, GAB, Oswim and Henderson mathematical models were built through the adjustment of experimental data to the isotherms of adsorption. Results from the physiochemical evaluation showed that the solid mixtures for refreshments are considerable sources of ascorbic acid and reductor sugar; and regarding mineral compounds, they are significant sources of calcium, sodium and potassium. It was also verified that the solid mixtures for refreshments of the four studied brands are considered highly hygroscopic.