Semivariogram models for estimating fig fly population density throughout the year

The objective of this work was to select semivariogram models to estimate the population density of fig fly (Zaprionus indianus; Diptera: Drosophilidae) throughout the year, using ordinary kriging. Nineteen monitoring sites were demarcated in an area of 8,200 m2, cropped with six fruit tree species: persimmon, citrus, fig, guava, apple, and peach. During a 24 month period, 106 weekly evaluations were done in these sites. The average number of adult fig flies captured weekly per trap, during each month, was subjected to the circular, spherical, pentaspherical, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, hole effect, K-Bessel, J-Bessel, and stable semivariogram models, using ordinary kriging interpolation. The models with the best fit were selected by cross-validation. Each data set (months) has a particular spatial dependence structure, which makes it necessary to define specific models of semivariograms in order to enhance the adjustment to the experimental semivariogram. Therefore, it was not possible to determine a standard semivariogram model; instead, six theoretical models were selected: circular, Gaussian, hole effect, K-Bessel, J-Bessel, and stable.

Predicting chick body mass by artificial intelligence-based models

The objective of this work was to develop, validate, and compare 190 artificial intelligence-based models for predicting the body mass of chicks from 2 to 21 days of age subjected to different duration and intensities of thermal challenge. The experiment was conducted inside four climate-controlled wind tunnels using 210 chicks. A database containing 840 datasets (from 2 to 21-day-old chicks) - with the variables dry-bulb air temperature, duration of thermal stress (days), chick age (days), and the daily body mass of chicks - was used for network training, validation, and tests of models based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) and neuro-fuzzy networks (NFNs). The ANNs were most accurate in predicting the body mass of chicks from 2 to 21 days of age after they were subjected to the input variables, and they showed an R² of 0.9993 and a standard error of 4.62 g. The ANNs enable the simulation of different scenarios, which can assist in managerial decision-making, and they can be embedded in the heating control systems.

Field data and prediction models of pesticide spray drift on coffee crop

The objective of this work was to generate drift curves from pesticide applications on coffee plants and to compare them with two European drift-prediction models. The used methodology is based on the ISO 22866 standard. The experimental design was a randomized complete block with ten replicates in a 2x20 split-plot arrangement. The evaluated factors were: two types of nozzles (hollow cone with and without air induction) and 20 parallel distances to the crop line outside of the target area, spaced at 2.5 m. Blotting papers were used as a target and placed in each of the evaluated distances. The spray solution was composed of water+rhodamine B fluorescent tracer at a concentration of 100 mg L-1, for detection by fluorimetry. A spray volume of 400 L ha-1 was applied using a hydropneumatic sprayer. The air-induction nozzle reduces the drift up to 20 m from the treated area. The application with the hollow cone nozzle results in 6.68% maximum drift in the nearest collector of the treated area. The German and Dutch models overestimate the drift at distances closest to the crop, although the Dutch model more closely approximates the drift curves generated by both spray nozzles.

Models for the estimation of thermodynamic properties of layered double hydroxides: application to the study of their anion exchange characteristics

Several models for the estimation of thermodynamic properties of layered double hydroxides (LDHs) are presented. The predicted thermodynamic quantities calculated by the proposed models agree with experimental thermodynamic data. A thermodynamic study of the anion exchange process on LDHs is also made using the described models. Tables for the prediction of monovalent anion exchange selectivities on LDHs are provided. Reasonable agreement is found between the predicted and the experimental monovalent anion exchange selectivities.

Models and applications for risk assessment and prediction of Asian soybean rust epidemics

Asian rust of soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merril] is one of the most important fungal diseases of this crop worldwide. The recent introduction of Phakopsora pachyrhizi Syd. & P. Syd in the Americas represents a major threat to soybean production in the main growing regions, and significant losses have already been reported. P. pachyrhizi is extremely aggressive under favorable weather conditions, causing rapid plant defoliation. Epidemiological studies, under both controlled and natural environmental conditions, have been done for several decades with the aim of elucidating factors that affect the disease cycle as a basis for disease modeling. The recent spread of Asian soybean rust to major production regions in the world has promoted new development, testing and application of mathematical models to assess the risk and predict the disease. These efforts have included the integration of new data, epidemiological knowledge, statistical methods, and advances in computer simulation to develop models and systems with different spatial and temporal scales, objectives and audience. In this review, we present a comprehensive discussion on the models and systems that have been tested to predict and assess the risk of Asian soybean rust. Limitations, uncertainties and challenges for modelers are also discussed.

Models, truth and realism: assessing Bas van Fraassen's views on scientific representation

This paper is devoted to an analysis of some aspects of Bas van Fraassen's views on representation. While I agree with most of his claims, I disagree on the following three issues. Firstly, I contend that some isomorphism (or at least homomorphism) between the representor and what is represented is a universal necessary condition for the success of any representation, even in the case of misrepresentation. Secondly, I argue that the so-called "semantic" or "model-theoretic" construal of theories does not give proper due to the role played by true propositions in successful representing practices. Thirdly, I attempt to show that the force of van Fraassen's pragmatic - and antirealist - "dissolution" of the "loss of reality objection" loses its bite when we realize that our cognitive contact with real phenomena is achieved not by representing but by expressing true propositions about them.

ALLOMETRIC MODELS FOR ESTIMATING ABOVEGROUND BIOMASS AND BIOMASS ALLOCATION OF CAPIXINGUI TREES (Croton floribundus Spreng.) IN AN AGRISILVICULTURAL SYSTEM

ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to select allometric models to estimate total and pooled aboveground biomass of 4.5-year-old capixingui trees established in an agrisilvicultural system. Aboveground biomass distribution of capixingui was also evaluated. Single- (diameter at breast height [DBH] or crown diameter or stem diameter as the independent variable) and double-entry (DBH or crown diameter or stem diameter and total height as independent variables) models were studied. The estimated total biomass was 17.3 t.ha-1, corresponding to 86.6 kg per tree. All models showed a good fit to the data (R2ad > 0.85) for bole, branches, and total biomass. DBH-based models presented the best residual distribution. Model lnW = b0 + b1* lnDBH can be recommended for aboveground biomass estimation. Lower coefficients were obtained for leaves (R2ad > 82%). Biomass distribution followed the order: bole>branches>leaves. Bole biomass percentage decreased with increasing DBH of the trees, whereas branch biomass increased.

Mathematical models to describe the volumetric shrinkage rate of red beans during drying

The present study aimed to determine the volumetric shrinkage rate of bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) seeds during air-drying under different conditions of air, temperature and relative humidity, and to adjust several mathematical models to the empiric values observed, and select the one that best represents the phenomenon. Six mathematical models were adjusted to the experimental values to represent the phenomenon. It was determined the degree of adjustment of each model from the value of the coefficient of determination, the behavior of the distribution of the residuals, and the magnitude of the average relative and estimated errors. The rate of volumetric shrinkage that occurred in bean seeds during drying is between 25 and 37%. It basically depends on the final moisture content, regardless of the air conditions during drying. The Modified Bala & Woods' model best represented the process.

Adjust of regression models to estimate the rectal temperature of broilers for the first 14 days of life

The broiler rectal temperature (t rectal) is one of the most important physiological responses to classify the animal thermal comfort. Therefore, the aim of this study was to adjust regression models in order to predict the rectal temperature (t rectal) of broiler chickens under different thermal conditions based on age (A) and a meteorological variable (air temperature - t air) or a thermal comfort index (temperature and humidity index -THI or black globe humidity index - BGHI) or a physical quantity enthalpy (H). In addition, through the inversion of these models and the expected t rectal intervals for each age, the comfort limits of t air, THI, BGHI and H for the chicks in the heating phase were determined, aiding in the validation of the equations and the preliminary limits for H. The experimental data used to adjust the mathematical models were collected in two commercial poultry farms, with Cobb chicks, from 1 to 14 days of age. It was possible to predict the t rectal of conditions from the expected t rectal and determine the lower and superior comfort thresholds of broilers satisfactorily by applying the four models adjusted; as well as to invert the models for prediction of the environmental H for the chicks first 14 days of life.

Comparison between hydrographically conditioned digital elevation models in the morphometric charaterization of watersheds

The aim of this study was to compare the hydrographically conditioned digital elevation models (HCDEMs) generated from data of VNIR (Visible Near Infrared) sensor of ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer), of SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) and topographical maps from IBGE in a scale of 1:50,000, processed in the Geographical Information System (GIS), aiming the morphometric characterization of watersheds. It was taken as basis the Sub-basin of São Bartolomeu River, obtaining morphometric characteristics from HCDEMs. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and cross validation were the statistics indexes used to evaluate the quality of HCDEMs. The percentage differences in the morphometric parameters obtained from these three different data sets were less than 10%, except for the mean slope (21%). In general, it was observed a good agreement between HCDEMs generated from remote sensing data and IBGE maps. The result of HCDEM ASTER was slightly higher than that from HCDEM SRTM. The HCDEM ASTER was more accurate than the HCDEM SRTM in basins with high altitudes and rugged terrain, by presenting frequency altimetry nearest to HCDEM IBGE, considered standard in this study.

Thermal comfort in reduced models of broilers' houses, under different types of roofing materials

The research was developed to evaluate the use of different types of roofing materials regularly used in poultry houses. Measurements of thermal comfort were made through the use of techniques such as the Black Globe and Humidity Index (BGHI), the Thermal Heat Load (THL) and Enthalpy (H). Conducted in the State University of Goiás, during the months of April and May, 2011, the experiment was composed of five different treatments: AC - Asbestos cement tiles, BA -Bamboo tiles, BAP - Bamboo tiles painted in white, FB -Vegetable fiber tiles and bitumen, FBP -Vegetable fiber tiles and bitumen painted in white. The experiment consisted in 15 repetitions, which were considered the different days of measurements taken. Throughout the studied period, the time of the day considered the least comfortable was the one observed at 2:00pm, and the coverage of vegetable fiber and bitumen showed the highest value of BGHI (84.1) when compared to other types of coverage, characterizing a situation of lower thermal comfort, and no difference was found for THL and H on treatments in the studied region.