Elites estatais e industrialização: ensaio de comparação entre Brasil, Argentina e México (1920-1970)

The purpose of this article is to stress on the importance of the sociology of state elites to fully understand developmental processes. With that purpose in mind, we comparatively analyze the industrialization process in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico from 1920 to 1970. Our analysis shows that although Argentina was in a much better condition to initiate its industrialization process in the early thirties, it was overtaken by Brazil and Mexico already in the late fifties. The article suggests that this took place because Brazil and Mexico, among other things, had a state elite willing to take development seriously, whereas Argentina lacked it.

Notas sobre o pensamento de Ignácio Rangel no centenário de seu nascimento

This paper is a tribute to one of the greatest Brazilian intellectuals of the XXth century, Ignácio Rangel, at the Centenary of his birth. The two analytical pillars of his thought are discussed, namely the thesis of the long term "basic duality" of the Brazilian economy and of the national political structure, and the idea that economic planning should always involve the identification and use of idle resources. It is argued that his ideas on history and his defense of planning integrate a wider development theory, which combines structural change (industrialization, agrarian modernization, the strengthening of the financial capital, etc.) and a macro-dynamic approach on idle capacity and economic cycles. By way if conclusion the ideas are evaluated from a XXIst century perspective.

O centenário de Ignácio Rangel

In February 2014, celebrating the centenary of Ignácio Rangel - one of the most original thinkers of the Brazilian economy. This article aims to summarize the main points of his work, considering that his theoretical contribution is poorly known of the new generations. It was one of the first to associate the internal cycles of our economy to the cycles of the world economy through the thesis of duality. Inflation was part of the "syndrome of the recession." Out of recession, there should be transfer of resources from activities with idle capacity for latecomers sectors, in case public services.

A curva de Rangel: origem, desenvolvimento e a formalização de Bresser-Pereira e Nakano

For Rangel inflation is caused by oligopolies and is necessary because it prevents a depression in an economy with low propensity to consume. Facing inflation, government prints money to avoid a liquidity crisis. This conception implies a double opposition to monetarist thought: conceives inflation as functional phenomenon and reverses the causality established by the quantitative equation. Bresser and Nakano were highly influenced by Rangel and stress that inflation is caused by oligopolies and also propose a "sanctioning role" of the state. However, these authors go further Rangel arguing that in recession inflation accelerates thus, formalizing a negative relationship between GDP growth and inflation, according with the so called "Rangel curve".

Inconvenient glow: cliometrics and the "golden age" of capitalism

This paper aims to criticize the recent cliometrics literature on the so-called "golden age" of capitalism. The works of Nicholas Crafts, Gianni Toniolo, and Barry Eichengreen are reconstructed in order to reveal the main characteristics of this research program. Its narrow quantitative focus, its reliance on theoretical propositions borrowed from neoclassical economics, and its auspicious interpretation of the postwar reconstruction are the main focus of the criticism presented. Finally, the cliometricians' attempt to historicize the "golden age" and de-historicize the following decades is related to the ideological understanding of the recent decades as a period of "great moderation."

O Brasil pode repetir o milagre econômico?

This article analyze the necessary conditions for Brazilian income per capita to duplicate in a time span of fifteen years, as it happened in the 1970s. Growth accounting is used to identify the sources of growth of Asian countries (China, Hon Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan) and Brazil during periods where income per capita has doubled in the past. The main restriction for the Brazilian economy to get back the growth performance of the 1970s is the low rate of investment. To increase this rate requires a substantial increase of the domestic savings rate.

Update analysis on the international crisis and its impact on the Mexican economy

The aim of this study is to analyze the current state of the Mexican economy in the face of the international crisis. Two questions are asked: Is the international crisis over? Is the Mexican economy strong and resilient enough to face the crisis in the eurozone? The first of these questions is answered in the first part. The answer to the second question is discussed in the second part of this study. Also examined are the large number of short, medium and long term problems that the Mexican economy will have to face in 2012 and perhaps 2013.

Crise global, mudanças geopolíticas e inserção do Brasil

This paper has as its purpose to analyze the insertion of Brazil in the international economic order, considering the fundaments of the world power, the global crisis, the geopolitical changes and their consequences on the global order. The text attempts to present the advantages and structural challenges for an adequate international insertion of technology are the key elements in a process of economic and social innovation whose goals are to build a richer society, more just and compassionate, and environmentally sustainable.

Just how capitalist is China?

In this paper, we review old and modern conceptions of "capitalism" and then we evaluate how "well" China fares on three touchstones of capitalism: competitive markets, generalization of wage-labour, and private ownership of the means of production. While we accept that China has come a long way under the first two criteria since the 1980s, we do not deem China yet to be a full-fledged capitalist economy for the State still wields great power through the allocation of massive state resources and control of large and highly profitable state enterprises, which dominate key sectors of the economy.

Economic stagnation in the United States: underlying causes and global consequences

This paper analyzes the causes of the slow recovery of the US economy since the financial crisis and Great Recession of 2008-9. Fallen house values and excessive household debts continue to depress consumer spending, while corporations are failing to invest in spite of record profits. The increasingly unequal distribution of income limits demand, while long-term structural transformations continue to erode employment creation. An expansionary monetary policy has been incapable of sparking a more robust recovery and fiscal policy has been shifted to an austerity stance. In this context, Brazil and other emerging market nations cannot count on the United States to continue to be the leading source of global demand as it was in previous decades.

Overvaluation trend of the Brazilian currency in the 2000s: empirical estimation

The aim of this paper is to discuss the trend of overvaluation of the Brazilian currency in the 2000s, presenting an econometric model to estimate the real exchange rate (RER) and which should be a reference level of the RER to guide long-term economic policy. In the econometric model, we consider long-term structural and short-term components, both of which may be responsible for explaining overvaluation trend of the Brazilian currency. Our econometric exercise confirms that the Brazilian currency had been persistently overvalued throughout almost all of the period under analysis, and we suggest that the long-term reference level of the real exchange rate was reached in 2004. In July 2014, the average nominal exchange rate should have been around 2.90 Brazilian reais per dollar (against an observed nominal rate of 2.22 Brazilian reais per dollar) to achieve the 2004 real reference level (average of the year). That is, according to our estimates, in July 2014 the Brazilian real was overvalued at 30.6 per cent in real terms relative to the reference level. Based on these findings we conclude the paper suggesting a mix of policy instruments that should have been used in order to reverse the overvaluation trend of the Brazilian real exchange rate, including a target for reaching a real exchange rate in the medium and the long-run which would favor resource allocation toward more technological intensive sectors.

Impacto da ascensão chinesa sobre os países latino-americanos

Este trabalho faz uma revisão da expansão das relações econômicas entre a China e os países da América Latina na última década. O grande processo de urbanização chinesa foi o principal estímulo para as exportações de commodities desses países e a China tornou-se o maior mercado para exportação e grande fornecedor de produtos manufaturados para muitos dos países da América Latina , assim como também tem ampliado sua contribuição para investimento e crédito. Nesse processo de reestruturação da divisão internacional do trabalho consideramos dois efeitos diferentes, um "efeito de demanda" e um "efeito de estrutura" e iinvestigamos como a complementaridade e as pressões competitivas afetou o comércio dentro da região e nos países de acordo com seus diferentes padrões e estrutura produtiva.

Hirschman e a dessacralização da epopeia do desenvolvimento por um desenvolvimentista

Hirschman e a profanação do desenvolvimento épico na visão de um desenvolvimentista. O ensaio apresenta uma leitura da obra de Albert Hirschman "com o objetivo de destacar a sua abordagem diferenciada para o desenvolvimento econômico, enquanto explora as dimensões econômicas, sociais e políticas envolvidas na junção do crescimento econômico e da equidade social. Alguns conceitos e referências ganham importância neste esforço, como o possibilismo, racionalidades ocultas, crescimento desequilibrado, conflitos sociais, consequências não intencionais e soluções abertas. Países latino-americanos são a principal referência empírica, com preocupações específicas sobre a questão de alimentos envolvida em processos de desenvolvimento.

Uma interpretação estatística do PIB, da PNAD e do salário mínimo

Por que a renda familiar na Pesquisa Nacional de Domicílios (PNAD) cresceu muito mais rápido do que o consumo das famílias no PIB brasileiro de 2011 a 2012? Para responder essa pergunta, começamos a partir de uma visualização da importância do salário mínimo na PNAD na distribuição de renda, e de uma hipótese de que a subestimação da renda nos levantamentos da PNAD está concentrada naquelas famílias cujos rendimentos não acompanham o salário mínimo . Elaboramos uma equação para explicar a diferença entre o crescimento do rendimento agregado familiar na PNAD e o crescimento do consumo das famílias nas contas nacionais em função da mudança no salário mínimo. As estimativas empíricas dessa equação sugerem que o comportamento do salário mínimo tem sido um componente importante na explicação das diferenças de crescimento da renda entre a PNAD e as contas do PIB.