Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

The stigma and prejudice of leprosy: influence on the human condition

INTRODUCTION: To analyze the knowledge, feelings and perceptions involving patients affected by leprosy, as a better understanding of these factors may be useful to decrease the stigma and prejudice associated with the condition. METHODS: The study cohort consisted of 94 patients who underwent treatment for leprosy at the Health Units in the City of Cuiabá, Mato Grosso (MT), Brazil. The study questionnaire included items to collect information on socio-demographic data, knowledge about the disease, stigma, prejudice, self-esteem and quality of life of leprosy patients. Bivariate analyses were used to assess the data based on the chi-square test with a 5% significance threshold. RESULTS: The results revealed that the study population consisted predominantly of males (55.3%) with an income between 1 and 3 times the minimum wage (67%). The survey respondents reported that the most significant difficulties related to the treatment were the side effects (44.7%) and the duration of the treatment (28.7%). A total of 72.3% of the subjects were knowledgeable about the disease, of whom 26.6% had the leprosy reaction. Stigma and prejudice were cited by 93.6% of the participants. Based on the responses, 40.4% of patients reported being depressed and sad, and 69.1% of the subjects encountered problems at work after being diagnosed. A total of 45.7% of the patients rated their quality of life between bad and very bad. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that leprosy causes suffering in patients beyond pain and discomfort and greatly influences social participation.

Histopathologic and biochemical liver test abnormalities in chronic asymptomatic or oligosymptomatic alcoholics: a review

PURPOSE: To review the medical literature regarding the histopathologic and biochemical liver test abnormalities in chronic asymptomatic or oligosymptomatic alcoholics. METHODS: Review of articles in the MEDLINE and LILACS databases regarding serum levels and prevalence of alterations in aspartate-aminotransferase, alanine-aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase, and total bilirubin, in relation to liver histopathology, with or without discrimination of types of histopathologic alteration. RESULTS: Global mean prevalence rates of aspartate-aminotransferase and alanine-aminotransferase alterations were 86.3% and 51.1%; in cases with steatosis they were 79.1% and 38.5%; and in cases of hepatitis, 90.1% and 58%. In all studies, prevalence rates of aspartate-aminotransferase alterations were significantly higher with lower variability than those of alanine-aminotransferase. Mean aspartate-aminotransferase levels were higher than 2N (N is the upper normal limit of the method employed) in all cases with hepatitis histopathology, while those of alanine-aminotransferase were 1.48N, in the same cases. Prevalence of alkaline phosphatase and total bilirubin abnormalities were 74.5% and 74.9% globally; in cases of steatosis, they were 70.9% and 67.9%; and in cases of hepatitis, 75.9% and 77.7%. Mean alkaline phosphatase levels were above the upper normal limit in all cases, but those of total bilirubin were above normal in 4 of 7 hepatitis studies. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of aspartate-aminotransferase alteration was consistently related to presence of histopathologic abnormalities; an enzyme level higher than 2N suggests the diagnosis of alcoholic hepatitis.