A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

Evaluation of two sweeping methods for estimating the number of immature Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in large containers

Introduction Here, we evaluated sweeping methods used to estimate the number of immature Aedes aegypti in large containers. Methods III/IV instars and pupae at a 9:1 ratio were placed in three types of containers with, each one with three different water levels. Two sweeping methods were tested: water-surface sweeping and five-sweep netting. The data were analyzed using linear regression. Results The five-sweep netting technique was more suitable for drums and water-tanks, while the water-surface sweeping method provided the best results for swimming pools. Conclusions Both sweeping methods are useful tools in epidemiological surveillance programs for the control of Aedes aegypti.

Effects of forest structure components on the occurence, group size and density of groups of bare-face tamarin (Saguinus bicolor - primates: Callitrichinae) in Central Amazonia

This study analyzed the influence of forest structural components on the occurence, size and density of groups of Bare-face Tamarin (Saguinus bicolor) - the most threatened species in the Amazon - and produced the first map of distribution of groups in large-scale spatial within the area of continuous forest. Population censuses were conducted between November 2002 and July 2003, covering 6400 hectares in the Ducke Reserve, Manaus-AM, Brazil. Groups of S. bicolor were recorded 41 times accordingly distributed in the environments: plateau (20); slopes (12); and lowlands (09). The mean group size was 4.8 indiv./group, and ranged from 2 to 11 individuals. In the sites where the groups were recorded, and in an equivalent number of sites where no tamarins were found located at least 500 m from those where they had been recorded, we placed 50 m x 50 m plots to record the following forest structural components: abundance of trees; abundance of lianas; abundance of fruiting trees and lianas; abundance of snags; abundance of logs; percentage of canopy opening; leaf litter depth; and altitude. Bare-face Tamarin more often uses areas with lower abundance of forest logs, smaller canopy opening and with higher abundance of snags, areas in the forest with smaller canopy opening present higher density of S. bicolor groups. Apparently this species does not use the forest in a random way, and may select areas for its daily activities depending on the micro-environmental heterogeneity produced by the forest structural components.

Outcrossing rate of Couratari multiflora (J.Smith) Eyma (Lecythidaceae), a low-density tropical tree species from a central Amazonian rainforest

A multilocus mixed-mating model was used to evaluate the mating system of a population of Couratari multiflora, an emergent tree species found in low densities (1 individual/10 ha) in lowland forests of central Amazonia. We surveyed and observed phenologically 41 trees in an area of 400 ha. From these, only four mother trees were analyzed here because few of them set fruits, which also suffered high predation. No difference was observed between the population multilocus outcrossing rate (t mp = 0.953 ± 0.040) and the average single locus rate (t sp = 0.968 ± 0.132). The four mother trees were highly outcrossed (t m ~ 1). Two out of five loci showed departures from the Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) expectations, and the same results occurred with the mixed-mating model. Besides the low number of trees analyzed, the proportion of loci in HWE suggests random mating in the population. However, the pollen pool was heterogeneous among families, probably due to both the small sample number and the flowering of trees at different times of the flowering season. Reproductive phenology of the population and the results presented here suggest, at least for part of the population, a long-distance pollen movement, around 1,000 m.

Pseudo-myocardial infarction during an episode of herpes zoster

The patient arrived at the emergency unit with a history of acute myocardial infarction, for which she was treated. Without improvement in the pain, the patient developed heart failure and underwent a hemodynamic study, which showed normal coronary arteries and extensive ventricular impairment. During evolution, the clinical findings improved and herpes zoster appeared on the right shoulder. In a few months the clinical findings subsided, and the findings of the electrocardiogram, chest X-ray, and ventricular function were normal. The patient is currently asymptomatic.

Enhancing longevity of pacemakers through reprogramming. Underutilization and cost-effectiveness

OBJECTIVE: This study was performed to observe the number of pacemakers that had never been reprogrammed after implantation, and the effect of optimised output programming on estimated longevity of pulse generators in patients with pacemaker METHODS: Sixty patients with Teletronics Reflex pacemakers were evaluated in a pacemaker clinic, from the time of the beginning of its activities, in June 1998, until March 1999. Telemetry was performed during the first clinic visit, and we observed how many pulse generators retained nominal output settings of the manufactures indicating the absence of reprogramming until that date. After evaluation of the capture threshold, reprogramming of pacemakers was performed with a safety margin of 2 to 2.5:1, and we compared the estimated longevity based on battery current at the manufacturer's settings with that based on settings achieved after reprogramming. RESULTS: In 95% of the cases, the original programmed setting was never reprogrammed before the patients attended the pacemaker clinic. Reprogramming the pacemaker prolonged estimated pulse generator life by 19.7±15.6 months (35.5%). CONCLUSION: The majority of the pacemakers evaluated had never been reprogrammed. Estimated pulse generator longevity can be prolonged significantly, using this simple, safe, efficacious, and cost-effective procedure.

Pseudo-aneurisma femoral micótico após onze anos de cateterismo

Relatamos o caso incomum de um alpinista de 52 anos que apresentava dor e edema em sua coxa direita, o que revelou ser um pseudoaneurisma micótico roto, sem histórico de trauma recente ou outra causa aparente. O paciente relatou uma história de infarto do miocárdio onze anos antes, com a realização de dois cateterismos femorais para cineangiocoronariografia. Ele negou qualquer episódio de febre ou diagnóstico de bacteremia naquele momento ou mais tarde, como também outra queixa durante esses onze anos. A raridade do caso, a aparência dessa complicação extremamente tardia, juntamente com o tipo de atividade esportiva do paciente sugeriram-nos publicar o caso.

Pseudo-aneurisma do ventrículo esquerdo

A ruptura da parede livre do ventrículo esquerdo é uma dramática, porém nem sempre fatal complicação do infarto agudo do miocárdio. No entanto, se o diagnóstico correto for retardado, o tratamento cirúrgico pode ser comprometido. Os autores relatam um caso de volumoso pseudo-aneurisma de parede inferior de ventrículo esquerdo diagnosticado ao estudo angiográfico.

Investigation of Copy Number Variation in Children with Conotruncal Heart Defects

Background:Congenital heart defects (CHD) are the most prevalent group of structural abnormalities at birth and one of the main causes of infant morbidity and mortality. Studies have shown a contribution of the copy number variation in the genesis of cardiac malformations.Objectives:Investigate gene copy number variation (CNV) in children with conotruncal heart defect.Methods:Multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) was performed in 39 patients with conotruncal heart defect. Clinical and laboratory assessments were conducted in all patients. The parents of the probands who presented abnormal findings were also investigated.Results:Gene copy number variation was detected in 7/39 patients: 22q11.2 deletion, 22q11.2 duplication, 15q11.2 duplication, 20p12.2 duplication, 19p deletion, 15q and 8p23.2 duplication with 10p12.31 duplication. The clinical characteristics were consistent with those reported in the literature associated with the encountered microdeletion/microduplication. None of these changes was inherited from the parents.Conclusions:Our results demonstrate that the technique of MLPA is useful in the investigation of microdeletions and microduplications in conotruncal congenital heart defects. Early diagnosis of the copy number variation in patients with congenital heart defect assists in the prevention of morbidity and decreased mortality in these patients.

Organization of the cysts in bee (Hymenoptera, Apidae) testis: number of spermatozoa per cyst

The morphology of the cyst cells in Apis mellifera Linné, 1758, Scaptotrigona postica Latreille, 1804, and Melipona bicolor bicolor Lepeletier, 1836 testis, as well as the average number of spermatic cells are reported. The data indicates a supporting and nourrishing role of the cyst cells to the developing cystocytes. The counts of immature spermatozoa in the cysts show an average of 202.8 ± 21.2 spermatozoa for A. mellifera, 117.4 ± 8.68 for S. postica and 88.8 ± 15.57 for M. bicolor, which predict the occurrence of 8 mitotic cycles in the cystocytes of A. mellifera and 7 in the meliponines, considering that only one spermatozoom originates of each final spermatogonium.

A new species of Urostreptus (Diplopoda, Spirostreptidae): description and chromossome number

This work presents the description and chromosome number of Urostreptus atrobrunneus sp. nov. The genus until now had not been registered yet in the São Paulo State, Brazil. The meiotic analysis showed that the species presents 2n=24, XY. The C-banding revealed large blocks of constitutive heterochromatin and two heteromorphic chromosomal pairs, one of them corresponding to the sexual pair.

Behavior of triatomines (Hemiptera, Reduviidae) vectors of Chagas' disease. II. Influence of feeding, lighting and time of day on the number of mating, mating speed and duration of copulation of Panstrongylus megistus (Burm, 1835) under laboratory conditions

To determine in influence of feeding, lighting and time of day on the copulating behavior of Panstrongylus megistus, 480 insect pairs were divided into four groups of 120 each and tested in the following respective situations: without food deprivation (F.D.), with five days of F.D., with ten days of F.D., and with 20 days of F. D. The tests were performed between 9:00 a.m. to 12:00a.m. and 7:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m., with light (700-1400 lux) and in the dark (1.4-2.8 lux) and behavior was recorded by the time sampling technique. Mating spped (MS) and duration of copulation (DC) were also calculated for each situation. The maximum frequency of copulation was observed after five days of F.D., at night, in the dark (n = 16), and the minimum was observed for recently-fed pairs, at night, with light (n = 4). Males approached females more often than females approached males. MS was lowest in pairs with twenty days of F.D., at night, with light (X = 23.0 ± 16.0 minutes), and highest in recently-fed pairs, during the day, with light (X = 2.9 ± 2.5 minutes). DC was shortest in recently-fed insects, during the day, in the dark (X = 23.5 ± 6.7 minutes), and longest in recently-fed animals, at night, in the dark (X = 38.3 ± 6.9 minutes).