118 resultados para probability of occurrence


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ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the spatial distribution of avoidable hospitalizations due to tuberculosis in the municipality of Ribeirao Preto, SP, Brazil, and to identify spatial and space-time clusters for the risk of occurrence of these events. METHODS This is a descriptive, ecological study that considered the hospitalizations records of the Hospital Information System of residents of Ribeirao Preto, SP, Southeastern Brazil, from 2006 to 2012. Only the cases with recorded addresses were considered for the spatial analyses, and they were also geocoded. We resorted to Kernel density estimation to identify the densest areas, local empirical Bayes rate as the method for smoothing the incidence rates of hospital admissions, and scan statistic for identifying clusters of risk. Softwares ArcGis 10.2, TerraView 4.2.2, and SaTScanTM were used in the analysis. RESULTS We identified 169 hospitalizations due to tuberculosis. Most were of men (n = 134; 79.2%), averagely aged 48 years (SD = 16.2). The predominant clinical form was the pulmonary one, which was confirmed through a microscopic examination of expectorated sputum (n = 66; 39.0%). We geocoded 159 cases (94.0%). We observed a non-random spatial distribution of avoidable hospitalizations due to tuberculosis concentrated in the northern and western regions of the municipality. Through the scan statistic, three spatial clusters for risk of hospitalizations due to tuberculosis were identified, one of them in the northern region of the municipality (relative risk [RR] = 3.4; 95%CI 2.7–4,4); the second in the central region, where there is a prison unit (RR = 28.6; 95%CI 22.4–36.6); and the last one in the southern region, and area of protection for hospitalizations (RR = 0.2; 95%CI 0.2–0.3). We did not identify any space-time clusters. CONCLUSIONS The investigation showed priority areas for the control and surveillance of tuberculosis, as well as the profile of the affected population, which shows important aspects to be considered in terms of management and organization of health care services targeting effectiveness in primary health care.

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A new cross-sectional survey of household- associated mongrel dogs as well as follow-up of previously parasitemic individuals was carried out in 1984 toy means of xenodiagnosis and serologic techniques to get a deeper insight into the relationship of T. cruzi parasitemia and age among canine hosts in a rural area of Argentina. Persistence of detectable parasitemia was age-independent, or at most, loosely related to age, confirming the pattern observed in 1982. Similarly no significant age-decreasing effect was recorded among seropositive dogs in: a) the probability of detecting parasites in a 2-year follow-up; b) their intensity of infectiousness (=infective force) for T. infestans 3rd-4th instar nymphs, as measured by the percentage of infected bugs observed in each dog xenodiagnosis. Moreover, not only was the infective force of seropositive dogs for bugs approximately constant through lifetime, but it was significantly higher than the one recorded for children in the present survey, and for human people by other researchers. Therefore, and since T. infestans field populations show high feeding frequencies on dogs, the latter are expected to make the greatest contribution to the pool of infected vectors in the rural household of Argentina. This characteristic should be sufficient to involve canine reservoirs definitely as a risk factor for human people residing in the same house. The increased severity of parasitemia observed among dogs in this survey may be related to the acute undernutrition characteristic of canine populations of poor rural areas in our country, which is expected to affect the ability of the host to manage the infection.

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The use of questionnaires has been recommended for identifying, at a lower cost, individuals at risk for schistosomiasis. In this study, validity of information obtained by questionnaire in the screening for Schistosoma mansoni infection was assessed in four communities in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Explanatory variables were water contact activities, sociodemographic characteristics and previous treatment for schistosomiasis. From 677, 1474, 766 and 3290 individuals eligible for stool examination in the communities, 89 to 97% participated in the study. The estimated probability of individuals to be infected, if they have all characteristics identified as independently associated with S.mansoni infection, varied from 15% in Canabrava, to 42% in Belo Horizonte, 48% in Comercinho and 80% in São José do Acácio. Our results do not support the hypothesis that a same questionnaire on risk factors could be used in screening for S.mansoni infection in different communities.

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Third stage larvae (L3) from Angiostrongylus costaricensis were incubated in water at room temperature and at 5 ° C and their mobility was assessed daily for 17 days. Viability was associated with the mobility and position of the L3, and it was confirmed by inoculation per os in albino mice. The number of actively moving L3 sharply decreased within 3 to 4 days, but there were some infective L3 at end of observation. A mathematical model estimated 80 days as the time required to reduce the probability of infective larvae to zero. This data does not support the proposition of refrigerating vegetables and raw food as an isolated procedure for prophylaxis of human abdominal angiostrongylosis infection.

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Eighty-one cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples mainly from cases of aseptic meningitis and motor deficiency syndrome were sent to the Virology Section of Evandro Chagas Institute, Belém Pará, in the period of January 1995 to January 1996 in order to isolate viruses. All samples were inoculated onto HEp-2 cell culture and newborn mice, with negative results. The probability of isolating viruses by these methods is reduced because of the low concentration of viral particles in these specimens. In order to obtain more information about the etiology of these cases, a group of 23 samples were selected to be tested by a more sensitive technique than the virus isolation - the reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Specific primers directed to conserved regions in the enterovirus genome were used, considering that this group of viruses is frequently associated with these neurological disorder. The age of the patients ranged from 1 to 55 years and nearly all of them lived in Belém, State of Pará, North of Brazil. Of 15 samples analyzed by RT PCR nine (60%) were positive; of these, 6 (66.6%) had motor deficiency and 3 (33.3%) developed aseptic meningitis. These results show that it is important to investigate enterovirus as cause of these syndromes.

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There is no paucity of methods for diagnosing Cryptosporidium spp. infection. The merits of immunoassays notwithstanding, microscopic identification of Cryptosporidium spp. oocysts in fecal samples remains an important diagnostic procedure. It owes the persistence of its use to such characteristics as dispensing with expensive equipment and kits, requiring only basic laboratory facilities, and having a low probability of false positive results when permanent slides are prepared, which can be re-examined in case of doubt. Cryptosporidium spp. oocysts can be readily identified in fecal smears prepared according to a regressive iron hematoxylin staining technique. The number of steps and their duration, as well as costs, were reduced to a minimum without loss of image quality and permanence of the preparations.

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The transmission of malaria in Brazil is heterogeneous throughout endemic areas and the presence of asymptomatic Plasmodium sp. carriers (APCs) in the Brazilian Amazon has already been demonstrated. Malaria screening in blood banks is based on the selection of donors in respect to possible risks associated with travel or residence, clinical evidence and/or inaccurate diagnostic methods thereby increasing the probability of transfusion-transmitted infection. We evaluated the frequency of APCs in four blood services in distinct areas of the Brazilian Amazon region. DNA was obtained from 400 human blood samples for testing using the phenol-chloroform method followed by a nested-PCR protocol with species-specific primers. The positivity rate varied from 1 to 3% of blood donors from the four areas with an average of 2.3%. All positive individuals had mixed infections for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum. No significant differences in the results were detected among these areas; the majority of cases originated from the transfusion centres of Porto Velho, Rondônia State and Macapá, Amapá State. Although it is still unclear whether APC individuals may act as reservoirs of the parasite, efficient screening of APCs and malaria patients in Brazilian blood services from endemic areas needs to be improved.

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Burn mortality statistics may be misleading unless they account properly for the many factors that can influence outcome. Such estimates are useful for patients and others making medical and financial decisions concerning their care. This study aimed to define the clinical, microbiological and laboratorial predictors of mortality with a view to focus on better burn care. Data were collected using independent variables, which were analyzed sequentially and cumulatively, employing univariate statistics and a pooled, cross-sectional, multivariate logistic regression to establish which variables better predict the probability of mortality. Survivors and non-survivors among burn patients were compared to define the predictive factors of mortality. Mortality rate was 5.0%. Higher age, larger burn area, presence of fungi in the wound, shorter length of stay and the presence of multi-resistant bacteria in the wound significantly predicted increased mortality. The authors conclude that those patients who are most apt to die are those with age > 50 years, with limited skin donor sites and those with multi-resistant bacteria and fungi in the wound.

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Jorge Lobo's disease is a cutaneous and subcutaneous mycosis that affects patients in the Amazon region. The number of patients is relatively small, but the real situation of the disease as public health problem is not known, because Jorge Lobo's disease is not a notifiable disease. This study aims to report the clinical evolution in patients affected and to determine the prevalence and areas of occurrence of the disease. A retrospective study was carried out based on the analysis of the clinical records, which included a collection of photographs of patients in the Department of Sanitary Dermatology, in Rio Branco, and patients seen in the interior of the state. In a decade, in Rio Branco, 249 cases of the disease were reported, 30 were females and 219 males. Of these patients, 153 had localized lesions, 94 of them were on one ear, 55 had multifocal lesions and 41 had disseminated lesions. The average time between the onset of symptoms and diagnosis was 19 years. The average age at the time of diagnosis was 53 years, and ages ranged from 14 to 96 years.

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TB is currently considered to be the most important infectious disease among HIV-1-infected subjects in developing countries, such as Brazil. A retrospective analysis of TB cases was performed, occurring from January 1995 to December 2010 in our cohort of 599 HIV positive patients. The primary outcome was the occurrence of active TB. Forty-one TB cases were diagnosed over this period of 16 years, among 599 HIV positive patients in an open cohort setting in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. All-time lowest mean CD4 T cell count at the time of TB diagnosis was 146 and 186 cells/mm³, respectively. The mean HIV viral load was 5.19 log10 copies/mL, and 59% of the patients were on HAART. TB incidence was 1.47 per 100 person-years, for a total follow-up time of 2775 person-years. The probability of surviving up to 10 years after diagnosis was 75% for TB patients as opposed to 96% for patients with other, non-TB opportunistic diseases (p = 0.03). TB can be considered a public health problem among people living with HIV in Brazil despite of the widespread use of antiretrovirals for the treatment of HIV infection/AIDS.

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Anopheles (Kerteszia) cruzii has been implicated as the primary vector of human and simian malarias out of the Brazilian Amazon and specifically in the Atlantic Forest regions. The presence of asymptomatic human cases, parasite-positive wild monkeys and the similarity between the parasites infecting them support the discussion whether these infections can be considered as a zoonosis. Although many aspects of the biology of An. cruzii have already been addressed, studies conducted during outbreaks of malaria transmission, aiming at the analysis of blood feeding and infectivity, are missing in the Atlantic Forest. This study was conducted in the location of Palestina, Juquitiba, where annually the majority of autochthonous human cases are notified in the Atlantic Forest of the state of São Paulo. Peridomiciliary sites were selected for collection of mosquitoes in a perimeter of up to 100 m around the residences of human malaria cases. The mosquitoes were analyzed with the purpose of molecular identification of blood-meal sources and to examine the prevalence of Plasmodium. A total of 13,441 females of An. (Ker.) cruzii were collected. The minimum infection rate was calculated at 0.03% and 0.01%, respectively, for P. vivax and P. malariae and only human blood was detected in the blood-fed mosquitoes analyzed. This data reinforce the hypothesis that asymptomatic human carriers are the main source of anopheline infection in the peridomiciliary area, making the probability of zoonotic transmission less likely to happen.

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This study sought for etndence of previous CMV infection in patients of a general hospital serving the low income population of Rio de Janeiro. An enzyme immunoassay was used to detect anti-CMV antibodies in 713 typical hospital patients classified into eight different groups. Positive tests were found in 87% of pregnant women, 85% of newborns, 61% of pediatric patients, 77% of adolescent patients, 81% of adult patients, 87% of dialysed transplant candidates, 89% of kidney donors, and 92% of patients after transplantation. Depending of the subgroup studied these results carry different meanings and necessitate different clinical approaches. The risk of congenital disease is probably low in view of the reduced number of pregnant women still susceptible to primary infection. The number of primary infections will also be low in transplant recipients. However, those still susceptible will almost certainly acquire the infection from, their donor. Prophylactic CMV matching in kidney transplantation is not a realistic approach due to the low probability of finding pairs of seronegative donors and recipients.

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INTRODUCTION: A retrospective study was conducted to assess the occurrence of blood donations that were ineligible due to Chagas disease infection from 1995 to 2009 at the Uberaba Regional Blood Center (HRU), Brazil, verify the tendency of this ineligibility, and describe the epidemiologic profile of the donors. METHODS: Retrospective studies of serological ineligibility due to Chagas disease, statistical analysis by means of the chi-square test and odds ratio, study of the tendencies using a dispersion graph and the linear correlation coefficient (r) were performed. RESULTS: In the period under study, a 0.2% serum prevalence of ineligibility due to Chagas disease was found, with a significant drop in ineligible donations from 2001 to 2009. Among the serum positive-donors, there was a significant predominance among those aged 30 years or above and non-single individuals. CONCLUSIONS: The results show a rate of occurrence that is lower than that described in literature, as well as a progressive drop during the 15 years under assessment. Such results are a consequence of systematic combat of the vector since the 70s and the progressive and consistent increase of returning donors, resulting in a drop of the contamination risk factor by means of blood transfusion and in the improvement of the quality of hemotherapy practices in the HRU.

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Introduction Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is primarily transmitted via contact with the blood of infected patients, although the form of contact has not been identified for a significant percentage of carriers. The present study evaluated possible risk factors for HCV transmission in a medium-sized town located in the northwest region of the State of São Paulo. Methods This was a case-control study, with the case group consisting of 190 chronic HCV carriers older than 18 years residing in the municipality of Catanduva. The control group also consisted of 190 individuals with HCV-negative serology. The groups were paired (1:1) for gender, age range (± five years), and place of residence. The same structured questionnaire was applied to all subjects, who gave written informed consent to participate in the study. The data were statistically analyzed using crude and adjusted logistic regression, and the results were expressed as odds ratios with a 95% confidence interval. Results The demographic profiles of the groups indicated a predominance of males (68.9%) and mean ages of 47.1 years (case group) and 47.3 years (control group). After adjusting for conditional regression, the following factors were found to represent risks for HCV: history of sexually transmitted disease (STD) and blood transfusion; accidents with syringes and/or needles; tattoos; and the use of non-injectable drugs and injectable medications. Conclusions The transmission of HCV via the blood route has been well characterized. Other forms of contact with human blood and/or secretions are likely to transmit the virus, although with a lower frequency of occurrence.

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Introduction The use of entomopathogenic fungi to control disease vectors has become relevant because traditional chemical control methods have caused damage to the environment and led to the development of resistance among vectors. Thus, this study assessed the pathogenicity of entomopathogenic fungi in Triatoma dimidiata. Methods Preparations of 108 conidia/ml of Gliocladium virens, Talaromyces flavus, Beauveria bassiana and Metarhizium anisopliae were applied topically on T. dimidiata nymphs and adults. Controls were treated with the 0.0001% Tween-80 vehicle. Mortality was evaluated and recorded daily for 30 days. The concentration required to kill 50% of T. dimidiata (LC50) was then calculated for the most pathogenic isolate. Results Pathogenicity in adults was similar among B. bassiana, G. virens and T. flavus (p>0.05) and differed from that in triatomine nymphs (p=0.009). The most entomopathogenic strains in adult triatomines were B. bassiana and G. virens, which both caused 100% mortality. In nymphs, the most entomopathogenic strain was B. bassiana, followed by G. virens. The native strain with the highest pathogenicity was G. virens, for which the LC50 for T. dimidiata nymphs was 1.98 x108 conidia/ml at 13 days after inoculation. Conclusions Beauveria bassiana and G. virens showed entomopathogenic potential in T. dimidiata nymphs and adults. However, the native G. virens strain presents a higher probability of success in the field, and G. virens should thus be considered a potential candidate for the biological control of triatomine Chagas disease vectors.