35 resultados para out-of-sample forecast


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The mechanical harvesting is an important stage in the production process of soybeans and, in this process; the loss of a significant number of grains is common. Despite the existence of mechanisms to monitor these losses, it is still essential to use sampling methods to quantify them. Assuming that the size of the sample area affects the reliability and variability between samples in quantifying losses, this paper aimed to analyze the variability and feasibility of using different sizes of sample area (1, 2 and 3 m²) in quantifying losses in the mechanical harvesting of soybeans. Were sampled 36 sites and the cutting losses, losses by other mechanisms of the combine and total losses were evaluated, as well as the water content in seeds, straw distribution and crop productivity. Data were subjected to statistical analysis (descriptive statistics and analysis of variance) and Statistical Control Process (SCP). The coefficients of variation were similar for the three frames available. Combine losses showed stable behavior, whereas cutting losses and total losses showed unstable behavior. The frame size did not affect the quantification and variability of losses in the mechanical harvesting of soybeans, thus a frame of 1 m² can be used for determining losses.

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The aim of this study was to research the occurrence of Salmonella spp. and Escherichia coli in feces samples of sparrows, as well as to identify the pathogenicity, cytotoxicity and sensitivity profile of the isolates to antimicrobial use. Two hundred and twenty eight sparrows were captured in eight farms. The in vitro pathogenicity test was performed by the isolates culture on congo red-magnesium oxalate Agar, whilst the in vivo pathogenicity test was performed in one day-old chicks. In order to study the cytotoxic effects of indicators, samples were inoculated into Vero cells. The results obtained for Escherichia coli isolation confirmed the presence of this microorganism in 30 (13.2%) of the evaluated samples. Out of those isolates, 10 (33.3%) presented the capacity of absorbing ongo red. As for in vivo pathogenicity a 68.0% of mortality rate of the evaluated samples was observed. Out of 20 isolates tested for cytotoxin production, none of them presented cytotoxic effect in the Vero cells. The Salmonella spp was isolated only in one sample (0.04%), and it was identified as Salmonella enterica subspecies houtenae. Results obtained through this research indicate the need for new studies to identify other virulence factors of E. coli samples and to delineate the phylogenetic profile of the isolates in order to establish a relation with colibacillosis outbreaks in chickens and broilers in the studied region, as well as to analyze the critical points in the aviculture productive chain to identify the source of Salmonella enterica subspecies houtenae.

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To examine the possible age-related blood pressure (BP) deregulation in response to central hypervolemia, we measured spontaneous baroreflex sensitivity (SBRS), carotid arterial compliance (CC), and R-R interval coefficient of variation (RRICV) during basal and thermoneutral resting head-out-of-water immersion (HOWI) in 7 young (YG = 24.0 ± 0.8 years) and 6 middle-aged/older (OL = 59.3 ± 1.3 years) healthy men. Compared with basal conditions (YG = 19.6 ± 4.0 vs OL = 6.1 ± 1.5 ms/mmHg, P < 0.05), SBRS remained higher in YG than OL during rest HOWI (YG = 23.6 ± 6.6 vs OL = 9.3 ± 2.1 ms/mmHg, P < 0.05). The RRICV was significantly different between groups (YG = 6.5 ± 1.4 vs OL = 2.8 ± 0.4%, P < 0.05) under HOWI. The OL group had no increase in CC, but a significant increase in systolic BP (basal = 115.3 ± 4.4 vs water = 129.3 ± 5.3 mmHg, P < 0.05) under HOWI. In contrast, the YG group had a significant increase in CC (basal = 0.16 ± 0.01 vs water = 0.17 ± 0.02 mm²/mmHg, P < 0.05) with no changes in systolic BP. SBRS was positively related to CC (r = 0.58, P < 0.05 for basal vs r = 0.62, P < 0.05 for water). Our data suggest that age-related vagal dysfunction and reduced CC may be associated with SBRS differences between YG and OL groups, and with BP elevation during HOWI in healthy older men.

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Premenstrual syndrome and premenstrual dysphoric disorder (PMDD) seem to form a severity continuum with no clear-cut boundary. However, since the American Psychiatric Association proposed the research criteria for PMDD in 1994, there has been no agreement about the symptomatic constellation that constitutes this syndrome. The objective of the present study was to establish the core latent structure of PMDD symptoms in a non-clinical sample. Data concerning PMDD symptoms were obtained from 632 regularly menstruating college students (mean age 24.4 years, SD 5.9, range 17 to 49). For the first random half (N = 316), we performed principal component analysis (PCA) and for the remaining half (N = 316), we tested three theory-derived competing models of PMDD by confirmatory factor analysis. PCA allowed us to extract two correlated factors, i.e., dysphoric-somatic and behavioral-impairment factors. The two-dimensional latent model derived from PCA showed the best overall fit among three models tested by confirmatory factor analysis (c²53 = 64.39, P = 0.13; goodness-of-fit indices = 0.96; adjusted goodness-of-fit indices = 0.95; root mean square residual = 0.05; root mean square error of approximation = 0.03; 90%CI = 0.00 to 0.05; Akaike's information criterion = -41.61). The items "out of control" and "physical symptoms" loaded conspicuously on the first factor and "interpersonal impairment" loaded higher on the second factor. The construct validity for PMDD was accounted for by two highly correlated dimensions. These results support the argument for focusing on the core psychopathological dimension of PMDD in future studies.

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Abstract Introduction: Sepsis, an extremely prevalent condition in the intensive care unit, is usually associated with organ dysfunction, which can affect heart and kidney. Objective: To determine whether the cardiac dysfunction and the Troponin I forecast the occurrence of acute renal failure in sepsis. Methods: Cardiac dysfunction was assessed by echocardiography and by the serum troponin I levels, and renal impairment by AKIN criteria and the need of dialysis. Twenty-nine patients with incident sepsis without previous cardiac or renal dysfunction were enrolled. Results and Discussion: Patients averaged 75.3 ± 17.3 years old and 55% were male. Median APACHE II severity score at ICU admission was 16 (9.7 - 24.2) and mortality rate in 30 days was 45%. On the fifth day, 59% had ventricular dysfunction. Troponin serum levels on day 1 in the affected patients were 1.02 ± 0.6 ng/mL compared with 0.23 ± 0.18 ng/mL in patients without heart dysfunction (p = 0.01). Eighteen out of 29 patients (62%) underwent renal replacement therapy (RRT) and the percent of patients with ventricular dysfunction who required dialysis was higher (94% vs. 16%, p = 0.0001). Values of troponin at day 1 were used to develop a ROC curve to determine their ability to predict the need of dialysis. The area under the curve was 0.89 and the cutoff value was 0.4 ng/mL. Conclusion: We found that an elevation in serum troponin levels, while guarding a relationship with ventricular dysfunction, can be a precious tool to predict the need for dialysis in sepsis patients.