121 resultados para mortality probability prediction
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OBJECTIVE:To analyse recent trends in oral cancer mortality, focusing specifically on differences concerning gender and race.METHODS:Official information on deaths and population in the city of Sao Paulo, 2003 to 2009, were used to estimate mortality rates from oral cancer (C00 to C10, International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision), adjusted for age and stratified by gender (females and males) and race (blacks and whites). The Prais-Winsten auto-regression procedure was used to analyse the time series.RESULTS:During the study period, 8,505 individuals living in the city of Sao Paulo died of oral cancer. Rates increased for females (rate of yearly increase = 4.4%, 95%CI 1.4;7.5), and levelled off for men, which represents an inversion of previous trends among genders in the city. Increases were identified for blacks, with a high rate of yearly increase of 9.1% (95%CI 5.5;12.9), and levelled off for whites. Oral cancer mortality in blacks almost doubled during the study period, and surpassed mortality in whites for almost all categories.CONCLUSIONS:Mortality presented a higher increase among women than in men, and it doubled among backs. The surveillance of trends of oral cancer mortality across gender and racial groups may contribute to implementing socially appropriate health policies, which concurrently reduce the burden of disease and the attenuation of unfair, avoidable and unnecessary inequalities in health.
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OBJECTIVE To evaluate the larvicidal activity of Azadirachta indica, Melaleuca alternifolia, carapa guianensis essential oils and fermented extract of Carica papaya against Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus, 1762) (Diptera: Culicidae). METHODS The larvicide test was performed in triplicate with 300 larvae for each experimental group using the third larval stage, which were exposed for 24h. The groups were: positive control with industrial larvicide (BTI) in concentrations of 0.37 ppm (PC1) and 0.06 ppm (PC2); treated with compounds of essential oils and fermented extract, 50.0% concentration (G1); treated with compounds of essential oils and fermented extract, 25.0% concentration (G2); treated with compounds of essential oils and fermented extract, 12.5% concentration (G3); and negative control group using water (NC1) and using dimethyl (NC2). The larvae were monitored every 60 min using direct visualization. RESULTS No mortality occurred in experimental groups NC1 and NC2 in the 24h exposure period, whereas there was 100% mortality in the PC1 and PC2 groups compared to NC1 and NC2. Mortality rates of 65.0%, 50.0% and 78.0% were observed in the groups G1, G2 and G3 respectively, compared with NC1 and NC2. CONCLUSIONS The association between three essential oils from Azadirachta indica, Melaleuca alternifolia, Carapa guianensis and fermented extract of Carica papaya was efficient at all concentrations. Therefore, it can be used in Aedes aegypti Liverpool third larvae stage control programs.
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OBJECTIVE To analyze cervical and breast cancer mortality in Brazil according to socioeconomic and welfare indicators. METHODS Data on breast and cervical cancer mortality covering a 30-year period (1980-2010) were analyzed. The data were obtained from the National Mortality Database, population data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics database, and socioeconomic and welfare information from the Institute of Applied Economic Research. Moving averages were calculated, disaggregated by capital city and municipality. The annual percent change in mortality rates was estimated by segmented linear regression using the joinpoint method. Pearson’s correlation coefficients were conducted between average mortality rate at the end of the three-year period and selected indicators in the state capital and each Brazilian state. RESULTS There was a decline in cervical cancer mortality rates throughout the period studied, except in municipalities outside of the capitals in the North and Northeast. There was a decrease in breast cancer mortality in the capitals from the end of the 1990s onwards. Favorable socioeconomic indicators were inversely correlated with cervical cancer mortality. A strong direct correlation was found with favorable indicators and an inverse correlation with fertility rate and breast cancer mortality in inner cities. CONCLUSIONS There is an ongoing dynamic process of increased risk of cervical and breast cancer and attenuation of mortality because of increased, albeit unequal, access to and provision of screening, diagnosis and treatment.
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OBJECTIVE To analyze the effect of air pollution and temperature on mortality due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. METHODS We evaluated the isolated and synergistic effects of temperature and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 10 µm (PM10) on the mortality of individuals > 40 years old due to cardiovascular disease and that of individuals > 60 years old due to respiratory diseases in Sao Paulo, SP, Southeastern Brazil, between 1998 and 2008. Three methodologies were used to evaluate the isolated association: time-series analysis using Poisson regression model, bidirectional case-crossover analysis matched by period, and case-crossover analysis matched by the confounding factor, i.e., average temperature or pollutant concentration. The graphical representation of the response surface, generated by the interaction term between these factors added to the Poisson regression model, was interpreted to evaluate the synergistic effect of the risk factors. RESULTS No differences were observed between the results of the case-crossover and time-series analyses. The percentage change in the relative risk of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was 0.85% (0.45;1.25) and 1.60% (0.74;2.46), respectively, due to an increase of 10 μg/m3 in the PM10 concentration. The pattern of correlation of the temperature with cardiovascular mortality was U-shaped and that with respiratory mortality was J-shaped, indicating an increased relative risk at high temperatures. The values for the interaction term indicated a higher relative risk for cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities at low temperatures and high temperatures, respectively, when the pollution levels reached approximately 60 μg/m3. CONCLUSIONS The positive association standardized in the Poisson regression model for pollutant concentration is not confounded by temperature, and the effect of temperature is not confounded by the pollutant levels in the time-series analysis. The simultaneous exposure to different levels of environmental factors can create synergistic effects that are as disturbing as those caused by extreme concentrations.
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OBJECTIVE To analyze the variation of infant mortality as per condition of life in the urban setting.METHODS Ecological study performed with data regarding registered deaths of children under the age of one who resided in Aracaju, SE, Northeastern Brazil, from 2001 to 2010. Infant mortality inequalities were assessed based on the spatial distribution of the Living Conditions Index for each neighborhood, classified into four strata. The average mortality rates of 2001-2005 and 2006-2010 were compared using the Student’s t-test.RESULTS Average infant mortality rates decreased from 25.3 during 2001-2005 to 17.7 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2006-2010. Despite the decrease in the rates in all the strata during that decade, inequality of infant mortality risks increased in neighborhoods with worse living conditions compared with that in areas with better living conditions.CONCLUSIONS Infant mortality rates in Aracaju showed a decline, but with important differences among neighborhoods. The assessment based on a living condition perspective can explain the differences in the risks of infant mortality rates in urban areas, highlighting health inequalities in infant mortality as a multidimensional issue.
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ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE: To analyze whether socioeconomic and health conditions during childhood are associated with mortality during old age. METHODS: Data were extracted from the SABE Study (Saúde, Bem-estar e Envelhecimento – Health, Welfare and Aging), which were performed in 2000 and 2006. The sample consisted of 2004 (1,355 living and 649 dead) older adults. The statistical analysis was performed based on Poisson regression models, taking into account the time variation of risk observed. Older adults’ demographic characteristics and life conditions were evaluated, as were the socioeconomic and lifestyle conditions they acquired during their adult life. RESULTS: Only the area of residence during childhood (rural or urban) remained as a factor associated with mortality at advanced ages. However, this association lost significance when the variables acquired during adulthood were added to the model. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the information regarding the conditions during childhood being limited and perhaps not accurately measure the socioeconomic status and health in the first years of life, the findings of this study suggest that improving the environmental conditions of children and creating opportunities during early adulthood may contribute to greater survival rates for those of more advanced years.
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A case-control study, involving patients with positive blood cultures for Klebsiella pneumoniae (KP) or Escherichia coli (EC) EC and controls with positive blood cultures for non-ESBL-KP or EC, was performed to assess risk factors for extended-spectrum-β-lactamase (ESBL) production from nosocomial bloodstream infections (BSIs). Mortality among patients with BSIs was also assessed. The study included 145 patients (81, 59.5% with K. pneumoniae and 64, 44.1% with E. coli BSI); 51 (35.2%) isolates were ESBL producers and 94 (64.8%) nonproducers. Forty-five (55.6%) K. pneumoniae isolates were ESBL producers, while only six (9.4%) E. coli isolates produced the enzyme. Multivariate analysis showed that recent exposure to piperacillin-tazobactam (adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] 6.2; 95%CI 1.1-34.7) was a risk factor for ESBL BSI. K. pneumoniae was significantly more likely to be an ESBL-producing isolate than E. coli (aOR 6.7; 95%CI 2.3-20.2). No cephalosporin class was independently associated with ESBLs BSI; however, in a secondary model considering all oxymino-cephalosporins as a single variable, a significant association was demonstrated (aOR 3.7; 95%CI 1.3-10.8). Overall 60-day mortality was significantly higher among ESBL-producing organisms. The finding that piperacillin-tazobactam use is a risk factor for ESBL-production in KP or EC BSIs requires attention, since this drug can be recommended to limit the use of third-generation cephalosporins.
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TB is currently considered to be the most important infectious disease among HIV-1-infected subjects in developing countries, such as Brazil. A retrospective analysis of TB cases was performed, occurring from January 1995 to December 2010 in our cohort of 599 HIV positive patients. The primary outcome was the occurrence of active TB. Forty-one TB cases were diagnosed over this period of 16 years, among 599 HIV positive patients in an open cohort setting in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. All-time lowest mean CD4 T cell count at the time of TB diagnosis was 146 and 186 cells/mm³, respectively. The mean HIV viral load was 5.19 log10 copies/mL, and 59% of the patients were on HAART. TB incidence was 1.47 per 100 person-years, for a total follow-up time of 2775 person-years. The probability of surviving up to 10 years after diagnosis was 75% for TB patients as opposed to 96% for patients with other, non-TB opportunistic diseases (p = 0.03). TB can be considered a public health problem among people living with HIV in Brazil despite of the widespread use of antiretrovirals for the treatment of HIV infection/AIDS.
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Introduction: The purpose of measuring the burden of disease involves aggregating morbidity and mortality components into a single indicator, the disability-adjusted life year (DALY), to measure how much and how people live and suffer the impact of a disease. Objective: To estimate the global burden of disease due to AIDS in a municipality of southern Brazil. Methods: An ecological study was conducted in 2009 to examine the incidence and AIDS-related deaths among the population residing in the city of Tubarao, Santa Catarina State, Brazil. Data from the Mortality Information System in the National Health System was used to calculate the years of life lost (YLL) due to premature mortality. The calculation was based on the difference between a standardized life expectancy and age at death, with a discount rate of 3% per year. Data from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases were used to calculate the years lived with disability (YLD). The DALY was estimated by the sum of YLL and YLD. Indicator rates were estimated per 100,000 inhabitants, distributed by age and gender. Results: A total of 131 records were examined, and a 572.5 DALYs were estimated, which generated a rate of 593.1 DALYs/100,000 inhabitants. The rate among men amounted to 780.7 DALYs/100,000, whereas among women the rate was 417.1 DALYs/100,000. The most affected age groups were 30-44 years for men and 60-69 years for women. Conclusion: The burden of disease due to AIDS in the city of Tubarao was relatively high when considering the global trend. The mortality component accounted for more than 90% of the burden of disease.
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SUMMARYAIDS-related cryptococcal meningitis continues to cause a substantial burden of death in low and middle income countries. The diagnostic use for detection of cryptococcal capsular polysaccharide antigen (CrAg) in serum and cerebrospinal fluid by latex agglutination test (CrAg-latex) or enzyme-linked immunoassay (EIA) has been available for over decades. Better diagnostics in asymptomatic and symptomatic phases of cryptococcosis are key components to reduce mortality. Recently, the cryptococcal antigen lateral flow assay (CrAg LFA) was included in the armamentarium for diagnosis. Unlike the other tests, the CrAg LFA is a dipstick immunochromatographic assay, in a format similar to the home pregnancy test, and requires little or no lab infrastructure. This test meets all of the World Health Organization ASSURED criteria (Affordable, Sensitive, Specific, User friendly, Rapid/robust, Equipment-free, and Delivered). CrAg LFA in serum, plasma, whole blood, or cerebrospinal fluid is useful for the diagnosis of disease caused by Cryptococcusspecies. The CrAg LFA has better analytical sensitivity for C. gattii than CrAg-latex or EIA. Prevention of cryptococcal disease is new application of CrAg LFA via screening of blood for subclinical infection in asymptomatic HIV-infected persons with CD4 counts < 100 cells/mL who are not receiving effective antiretroviral therapy. CrAg screening of leftover plasma specimens after CD4 testing can identify persons with asymptomatic infection who urgently require pre-emptive fluconazole, who will otherwise progress to symptomatic infection and/or die.
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Although the protease inhibitors have revolutionized the therapy of chronic hepatitis C (CHC), the concomitant use of pegylated-interferon (PEG-IFN) and ribavirin (RBV) is associated to a high rate of adverse effects. In this study, we evaluated the consequences of PEG-IFN and RBV and their relationship with mortality in patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: Medical records of CHC who underwent treatment with PEG-IFN and RBV in a public hospital in Brazil were evaluated. All the patients with cirrhosis were selected, and their clinical and laboratory characteristics, response to treatment, side effects and mortality were evaluated. RESULTS: From the 1,059 patients with CHC, 257 cirrhotic patients were evaluated. Of these, 45 (17.5%) achieved sustained viral response (SVR). Early discontinuation of therapy occurred in 105 (40.8%) patients, of which 39 (15.2%) were due to serious adverse effects. The mortality rate among the 257 cirrhotic patients was 4.3%, occurring in 06/242 (2.4%) of the Child-A, and in 05/15 (33.3%) of the Child-B patients. In conclusion, the treatment of patients with cirrhosis due to HCV with PEG-IFN and RBV shows a low SVR rate and a high mortality, especially in patients with liver dysfunction.
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Observations were made on the mortality of Dipetalogaster maximus in relation to humidity and temperature in controlled conditions. The bugs survived longer at higher relative humidities and at lower temperatures, but when these results were plotted against vapour pressure déficit, no independent temperature effect was seen. The results may be explained by thefaster depletion of water reserves at higher vapour pressure deficits. D. maximus did not increase its resistance to water vapour transferat higher vapour pressure deficits. In orderto increase survival rates when D. maximus is used for xenodiagnosis in field conditions it should be protected against high temperatures and low humidities.
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We compared, for Triatoma brasiliensis, the egg-laying process and the mortality of adults under conditions of almost permanent darkness and with normal laboratory luminosity. Mortality did not differ between groups. The egg-laying per vial and per female was significantly greater in the group of normal luminosity. We consider that it is not recommendable to keep the adults of this species under complete darkness. Other biological aspects should be analysed in relation to luminosity.
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Adult mice were submitted to different degrees of protein restriction for five weeks (4.75, 9.5,14.25 and 19% of protein in isocaloric diets with normal content of mineral and vitamins), being subsequently infected with two strains of Trypanosoma cruzi: 10(5) trypomastigotes of Y strain or 14(5) trypomastigotes of CL strain. The same diet was maintained for all animals and the infection wasfollowed up by evaluation of blood parasites, mortality and intensity of lesions in the heart and skeleton muscle. Only severe protein restriction (4.75%) induced decrease in resistance to the infection with both the Y and CL strains of T. cruzi, which resulted in higher parasitemia and mortality. The inflammatory lesions in heart and skeleton muscle were less extensive in groups with severe protein restriction despite the increased number of parasite in muscle cells. Depression of immune mechanisms could be responsiblefor the reduced resistance and reduced inflammatory reaction after T. cruzi infection in severely protein restricted animals.
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To investigate whether mice immunization with the recombinant form of a 14.7 KDa Schistosoma mansoni protein (rSm14) confers protection against a S. mansoni lethal challenge infection, rSm14-immunized mice were challenged with different cercarial burdens. A significant protection was detected in immunized mice challenged with 100 or 1,000 S. mansoni cercariae when compared with their controls (p< 0.004 and p< 0.01 respectively). Differently from previous report, none of the mice from the control group (not immunized and infected with 1000 cercariae) died before the 30th day post-infection. A direct correlation between the number of challenge cercariae and the precocity of mice death was found. IgM anti-rSm14 antibodies were significantly produced (p< 0.05) mainly in the groups of immunized mice infected with 500 or 1000 cercariae. IgG and IgA anti-rSm14 antibodies were not significantly detected. In Western immunoblots, all mice sera showed a specific antibody response with a 14.7 KDa antigen being reacted with particular intensity in sera from immunized mice. The results show that immunization with rSm14 reduced mice worm burden independently of the cercariae load of challenge infection. No correlation was found between serum antibodies and worm burden reduction. In relation to cercarial load and the rate and precocity of mice mortality a direct correlation was found.