70 resultados para finite-time attractiveness in probability


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We estimate the risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA. This is done by a mathematical model that quantifies the intensity of transmission of the new virus in those countries and the probability that one individual has of acquiring the influenza depending on the date of arrival and time spent in the area. The maximum estimated risk reached 7.5 cases per 10,000 visitors to Chile, 17 cases per 10,000 travelers to Argentina and 23 cases per 10,000 travelers to the USA. The estimated number of imported cases until 27 July is 57 ± 9 from Chile, 136 ± 27 from the USA and 301 ± 21 from Argentina, which are in accord with the official figures. Estimating the number of imported cases was particularly important for the moment of the disease introduction into this country, but it will certainly be important again as a tool to calculate the number of future imported cases from northern countries in our next inter-epidemic season, were imported cases can constitute again the majority of the new influenza burden to the Brazilian health services.

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Typical human immunodeficiency virus-1 subtype B (HIV-1B) sequences present a GPGR signature at the tip of the variable region 3 (V3) loop; however, unusual motifs harbouring a GWGR signature have also been isolated. Although epidemiological studies have detected this variant in approximately 17-50% of the total infections in Brazil, the prevalence of B"-GWGR in the southernmost region of Brazil is not yet clear. This study aimed to investigate the C2-V3 molecular diversity of the HIV-1B epidemic in southernmost Brazil. HIV-1 seropositive patients were ana-lysed at two distinct time points in the state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS98 and RS08) and at one time point in the state of Santa Catarina (SC08). Phylogenetic analysis classified 46 individuals in the RS98 group as HIV-1B and their molecular signatures were as follows: 26% B"-GWGR, 54% B-GPGR and 20% other motifs. In the RS08 group, HIV-1B was present in 32 samples: 22% B"-GWGR, 59% B-GPGR and 19% other motifs. In the SC08 group, 32 HIV-1B samples were found: 28% B"-GWGR, 59% B-GPGR and 13% other motifs. No association could be established between the HIV-1B V3 signatures and exposure categories in the HIV-1B epidemic in RS. However, B-GPGR seemed to be related to heterosexual individuals in the SC08 group. Our results suggest that the established B"-GWGR epidemics in both cities have similar patterns, which is likely due to their geographical proximity and cultural relationship.

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Patterns of malaria cases were compared between the department of Meta and the municipality of Puerto Gaitán, Colombia, to examine temporal change in malaria from 2005-2010. During this time frame in Meta the mean ratio was 2.53; in contrast, in Puerto Gaitán it was 1.41, meaning that a surprisingly high proportion of Plasmodium falciparum cases were reported from this municipality. A detailed analysis of data from Puerto Gaitán for 2009 and 2010 detected a significant difference (χ2, p < 0.001) in the distribution of plasmodia, with Plasmodium vivax more prevalent in 2009 and P. falciparum in 2010. Males had the highest number of cases but there was no difference in the distribution of cases between sexes and years. In both years, for both sexes, people 16-40 accounted for the majority of cases (58.9% in 2009; 60.4% in 2010). There were significant differences in the distribution of both P. vivax (χ2, p < 0.01) and P. falciparum cases (χ2, p < 0.05) by geographic setting (urban vs. non-urban) between years. Urban cases of both P. vivax and P. falciparum are recorded in this study for the first time in Puerto Gaitán, possibly the result of area wide displacement and migration due to armed conflict.

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Field surveys were carried during four soybean seasons in Southern Brazil to evaluate the occurrence of parasitoids in eggs of Anticarsia gemmatalis Hübner, 1818 and their incidence along the crop season. Eggs were collected by visual search on soybean leaves and from plants kept inside cages where A. gemmatalis moths were allowed to lay eggs. Trichogramma acacioi Brun, Moraes & Soares, 1984 was recorded for the first time in eggs of A. gemmatalis and the citations in the literature of Trichogramma lasallei Pinto, 1998 in Brazil where based on the material collected in this survey. Apart from these species, Trichogramma pretiosum Riley, 1879, Trichogramma rojasi Nagaraja & Nagarkatti, 1973 and Trichogramma atopovirilia Oatman & Platner, 1983 were also collected, all of which have been previously recorded in this host. Parasitized eggs were collected all over the period of occurrence of A. gemmatalis, from January to April each year. Total parasitism ranged from 4.8% in 2000 and 2002, 23.3% in 2001 and 28.9% in 2003. T. pretiosum and T. acacioi accounted for more than 80% of the parasitoids emerged each year, followed by T. atopovirilia, T. rojasi and T. lasallei, with less than 20% of incidence. Both the sex ratio and the mean number of parasitoids/egg did not differ among the species. Searching for A. gemmatalis eggs proved to be time consuming in comparison to the collection of eggs laid by moths inside the cages, which showed to be a useful method to provide qualitative estimates of parasitism in eggs of A. gemmatalis.

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In short space of time increase in temperature and rainfall can affect vector populations and, consequently, the diseases for them transmitted. The present study analyzed the effect of small temperature and humidity variations on the fecundity, fertility and survival of Aedes aegypti. These parameters were analyzed using individual females at temperatures ranging from 23 to 27 °C (mean 25 °C); 28 to 32 °C (mean 30 °C) and 33 to 37 °C (mean 35 ºC) associated to 60±8% and 80±6% relative humidity. Females responded to an increase in temperature by reducing egg production, oviposition time and changing oviposition patterns. At 25 ºC and 80% relative humidity, females survived two-fold more and produced 40% more eggs when compared to those kept at 35 ºC and 80% relative humidity. However, in 45% of females kept at 35 ºC and 60% relative humidity oviposition was inhibited and only 15% females laid more than 100 eggs, suggesting that the intensity of the temperature effect was influenced by humidity. Gradual reductions in egg fertility at 60% relative humidity were observed with the increase in temperature, although such effect was not found in the 80% relative humidity at 25 º C and 30 º C. These results suggest that the reduction in population densities recorded in tropical areas during seasons when temperatures reach over 35 ºC is likely to be strongly influenced by temperature and humidity, with a negative effect on several aspects of mosquito biology.

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Considering nitrogen mineralization (N) of soil organic matter is a key aspect for the efficient management of N fertilizers in agricultural systems. Long-term aerobic incubation is the standard technique for calibrating the chemical extraction methods used to estimate the potentially mineralizable N in soil. However, the technique is laborious, expensive and time-consuming. In this context, the aims of this study were to determine the amount of soil mineralizable N in the 0-60 cm layer and to evaluate the use of short-term anaerobic incubation instead of long-term aerobic incubation for the estimation of net N mineralization rates in soils under sugarcane. Five soils from areas without previous N fertilization were used in the layers 0-20, 20-40 and 40-60 cm. Soil samples were aerobically incubated at 35 ºC for 32 weeks or anaerobically incubated (waterlogged) at 40 ºC for seven days to determine the net soil N mineralization. The sand, silt and clay contents were highly correlated with the indexes used for predicting mineralizable N. The 0-40 cm layer was the best sampling depth for the estimation of soil mineralizable N, while in the 40-60 cm layer net N mineralization was low in both incubation procedures. Anaerobic incubation provided reliable estimates of mineralizable N in the soil that correlated well with the indexes obtained using aerobic incubation. The inclusion of the pre-existing NH4+-N content improved the reliability of the estimate of mineralizable N obtained using anaerobic incubation.

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Eucalyptus Shoot Blight in the Vale do Rio Doce (ESBVRD) is an anomaly that leads to reduced growth and, in more extreme cases, to death of eucalyptus plants. Initially diagnosed in plantations in the region of the Vale do Rio Doce, in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, this problem has also been found in plantations in other regions of the country and even in other countries. Although the symptoms of this anomaly are well-known, its causes are not yet understood. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cause-effect relationship between accumulation of manganese (Mn) in eucalyptus clones and ESBVRD. Characterization of the environment in areas of greater occurrence of this problem in regard to soil, climate and fluctuation of the water table was undertaken in eucalyptus plantations of the Celulose Nipo-brasileira S.A. (Cenibra) company in the region of the Vale do Rio Doce. Plant tissues were sampled in two situations. In the first situation, diagnosis occurred in the initial phase of the anomaly in clones with differentiated tolerance to the problem; in the second situation, diagnosis was made in a single clone, considered to be sensitive, in two time periods - in the phase with the strong presence of symptoms and in the recovery phase, in areas of occurrence and in areas of escape from the problem. The most ESBVRD-sensitive clone showed much higher (4.8 times higher) leaf Mn contents than more tolerant clones. In plants with the anomaly, Mn leaf contents were greater than 3,070 mg kg-1, much greater than the quantity found in those without the anomaly (734 mg kg-1). In the period in which the symptoms began to wane, there was a sharp decline in leaf Mn contents, from 2,194 to 847 mg kg-1. Manganese content in the above ground part and plant litter (44.4 g ha-1) in the area of occurrence of the anomaly was three times greater than that found in these same components (14.1 g ha-1) in the area of absence of the symptom. Based on the evidence found, such as the existence of environmental conditions favorable to high Mn availability to the plants in the areas of greatest incidence of ESBVRD, greater uptake of Mn in sensitive clones and in plants with symptoms, and a synchronism between the intensity of symptoms of ESBVRD and leaf Mn contents, it may be inferred that temporary excess of Mn in eucalyptus plants is closely related to ESBVRD.

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Simultaneous determination of moxifloxacin (MOX) and H2-antagonists was first time developed in bulk and formulations. Purospher STAR C18 (250 x 4.6 mm, 5 μm) column was used. The mobile phase (methanol: water: ACN, 60:45:5 v/v/v, pH 2.7) was delivered at a flow rate of 1.0 mL min-1, eluent was monitored at 236, 270 and 310 nm for cimetidine, famotidine and ranitidine, respectively. The proposed method is specific, accurate (98-103%), precise (intra-day and inter-day variation 0.098-1.970%) and linear (r>0.998). The LOD and LOQ were 0.006-0.018 and 0.019-0.005 μg mL-1, respectively. The statistical parameters were applied to verify the results. The method is applicable to routine analysis of formulations and interaction of MOX with H2-antagonist.

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The objective of this work was to evaluate the outplanting growth of Eucalyptus grandis e E. saligna clones, produced by cuttings in tubes (50cm³) and in pressed blocks (40x60x07cm) - 175 cm³/ seedlings, with different substrates (BT - sugarcane bagasse+sugarcane filter cake; AR - carbonized rice hull + eucalyptus bark; TF - peat). The experiment was arranged in a randomized block design, in a 2x7 factorial (2 clones and 7 treatments), with four replicates with 25 plants. Survival was evaluated two months later. Plant growth was monitored through height and ground level diameter at 20, 40, 60, 120 and 180 days after outplanting. To evaluate the effect of the containers on stem and root biomass in both clones, 180 days after outplanting, the cuttings grown in BT substrate with fertilizer were selected. One plant per plot of each clone, grown in tubes and in pressed blocks was selected. The E. grandis and E. saligna cuttings grown in pressed blocks with sugarcane bagasse+sugarcane filter cake presented greater height and diameter after out planting. Both clones presented larger root, bark, log and branch biomass production in plants produced in the block system. Cuttings of E. saligna grown in pressed blocks showed 80% most wood biomass 180 days after outplanting, compared to that grown in tubes. In E. grandis, the differences in diameter and height, in function of the cutting production system, decreased along time, while in E. saligna these differences increased along the evaluation period.

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Kinetic simulation and drying process optimization of corn malt by Simulated Annealing (SA) for estimation of temperature and time parameters in order to preserve maximum amylase activity in the obtained product are presented here. Germinated corn seeds were dried at 54-76 °C in a convective dryer, with occasional measurement of moisture content and enzymatic activity. The experimental data obtained were submitted to modeling. Simulation and optimization of the drying process were made by using the SA method, a randomized improvement algorithm, analogous to the simulated annealing process. Results showed that seeds were best dried between 3h and 5h. Among the models used in this work, the kinetic model of water diffusion into corn seeds showed the best fitting. Drying temperature and time showed a square influence on the enzymatic activity. Optimization through SA showed the best condition at 54 ºC and between 5.6h and 6.4h of drying. Values of specific activity in the corn malt were found between 5.26±0.06 SKB/mg and 15.69±0,10% of remaining moisture.

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An experiment was conducted to evaluate the behavior, performance and physiological parameters of pigs in different production systems. Twenty four animals in the growth phase were distributed in a randomized block design in three treatments: T1 - concrete floor, T2 - deep bedding with wood shaving, and T3 - deep bedding with coffee husks. The behavioral study was carried out by observing the animal behavior for an uninterrupted period of eight hours throughout seven weeks. The proportions of time spent in each behavior were characterized using the frequency histogram composition. Environmental (IBGTH), physiological (rectal and skin temperature and respiratory rate) and performance (weight gain, feed intake and feed conversion) parameters were measured in animals during the period. The production systems of deep bedding showed higher values of IBGTH. There was no effect of production systems evaluated on the performance parameters. Rectal temperature was higher in animals reared on deep bedding with coffee husks in relation to the concrete floor. The use of deep bedding benefited the behavior of piglets in the growth phase and it reduced the agonistic behavior among individuals.

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Captive penguins are prone to pododermatitis (bumblefoot) lesions due to sedentary habits, changes in normal activity patterns, prolonged time on hard and abrasive surfaces, and less time swimming in the water. Environmental enrichment allows the use of creative and ingenious techniques that aim to keep the captive animals occupied by increasing the range and the diversity of behavioral opportunities always respecting the ethological needs of the species. The main goal of this work was to use environmental enrichment techniques to reduce pododermatitis in a group of captive penguins. Five captive Magellanic penguins (Spheniscus magellanicus) that were showing bumblefoot lesions were followed during this project. To monitor the lesions, all animals were physically restraint 3 times a week over a period of 12 weeks. Environmental enrichment was introduced daily in the water with the goal of enhancing their time in the water for one extra hour daily. The results demonstrate that in a twelve weeks period, four animals showed significant reduction of the lesions in both feet and in two animals the lesions were completely healed. With these results we can conclude that aquatic environmental enrichment allowed this group of penguins to spend more time in the water, favoring the reduction of the bumblefoot lesions.

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Chaotic dynamical systems exhibit trajectories in their phase space that converges to a strange attractor. The strangeness of the chaotic attractor is associated with its dimension in which instance it is described by a noninteger dimension. This contribution presents an overview of the main definitions of dimension discussing their evaluation from time series employing the correlation and the generalized dimension. The investigation is applied to the nonlinear pendulum where signals are generated by numerical integration of the mathematical model, selecting a single variable of the system as a time series. In order to simulate experimental data sets, a random noise is introduced in the time series. State space reconstruction and the determination of attractor dimensions are carried out regarding periodic and chaotic signals. Results obtained from time series analyses are compared with a reference value obtained from the analysis of mathematical model, estimating noise sensitivity. This procedure allows one to identify the best techniques to be applied in the analysis of experimental data.

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Non-linear functional representation of the aerodynamic response provides a convenient mathematical model for motion-induced unsteady transonic aerodynamic loads response, that accounts for both complex non-linearities and time-history effects. A recent development, based on functional approximation theory, has established a novel functional form; namely, the multi-layer functional. For a large class of non-linear dynamic systems, such multi-layer functional representations can be realised via finite impulse response (FIR) neural networks. Identification of an appropriate FIR neural network model is facilitated by means of a supervised training process in which a limited sample of system input-output data sets is presented to the temporal neural network. The present work describes a procedure for the systematic identification of parameterised neural network models of motion-induced unsteady transonic aerodynamic loads response. The training process is based on a conventional genetic algorithm to optimise the network architecture, combined with a simplified random search algorithm to update weight and bias values. Application of the scheme to representative transonic aerodynamic loads response data for a bidimensional airfoil executing finite-amplitude motion in transonic flow is used to demonstrate the feasibility of the approach. The approach is shown to furnish a satisfactory generalisation property to different motion histories over a range of Mach numbers in the transonic regime.

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This paper studies the effect of time delay on the active non-linear control of dynamically loaded flexible structures. The behavior of non-linear systems under state feedback control, considering a fixed time delay for the control force, is investigated. A control method based on non-linear optimal control, using a tensorial formulation and state feedback control is used. The state equations and the control forces are expressed in polynomial form and a performance index, quadratic in both state vector and control forces, is used. General polynomial representations of the non-linear control law are obtained and implemented for control algorithms up to the fifth order. This methodology is applied to systems with quadratic and cubic non-linearities. Strongly non-linear systems are tested and the effectiveness of the control system including a delay for the application of control forces is discussed. Numerical results indicate that the adopted control algorithm can be efficient for non-linear systems, chiefly in the presence of strong non-linearities but increasing time delay reduces the efficiency of the control system. Numerical results emphasize the importance of considering time delay in the project of active structural control systems.