Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections

ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

A absorção de nitrogênio, fósforo, potássio, cálcio, magnésio, enxôfre e silício pela cana de açúcar, Co 419, e o seu crescimento em função da idade

This paper describes the data obtained for the growth of sugar cane, Variety Co 419, and the amount and rate of absorption of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, magnesium, sulfur, and silicon, according to the age of the plant, in the soil and climate conditions of the state of S. Paulo, Brazil. An experiment was installed in the Estação Experimental de Cana de Açúcar "Dr. José Vizioli", at Piracicaba, state of S. Paulo, Brazil, and the soil "tèrra-roxa misturada" presented the following composition: Sand (more than 0,2 mm)........................................................................ 8.40 % Fine sand (from 0,2 to less than 0,02 mm)................................................. 24.90 % Silt (from 0,02 to less than 0,002 mm)...................................................... 16.40 % Clay (form 0,002 mm and less)................................................................ 50.20 % pH 10 g of soil and 25 ml of distilled water)..................................................... 5.20 %C (g of carbon per 100 g of soil)................................................................. 1.00 %N (g of nitrogen per 100 g of soil)............................................................... 0.15 P0(4)-³ (me. per 100 g of soil, soluble in 0,05 normal H2SO4) ............................... 0.06 K+ (exchangeable, me. per 100 g of soil)....... 0.18 Ca+² (exchangeable, me. per 100 g of soil)...... 2.00 Mg+² (exchangeable, me. per 100 g of soil)...... 0.66 The monthly rainfall and mean temperature from January 1956 to August 1957 are presented in Table 1, in Portuguese. The experiment consisted of 3 replications of the treatments: without fertilizer and with fertilizer (40 Kg of N, from ammonium sulfate; 100 Kg of P(2)0(5) from superphosphate and 40 Kg K2 O, from potassium chloride). Four complete stools (stalks and leaves) were harvested from each treatment, and the plants separated in stalks and leaves, weighed, dried and analysed every month from 6 up to 15 months of age. The data obtained for fresh and dry matter production are presented in table 2, and in figure land 2, in Portuguese. The curves for fresh and dry matter production showed that fertilized and no fertilized sugar cane with 6 months of age presents only 5% of its total weight at 15 months of age. The most intense period of growth in this experiment is located, between 8 and 12 months of age, that is between December 1956 and April 1957. The dry matter production of sugar cane with 8 and 12 months of age was, respectively, 12,5% and 87,5% of the total weight at 15 months of age. The growth of sugar cane in relation to its age follows a sigmoid curve, according to the figures 1, 2 and 3. The increase of dry matter production promoted by using fertilizer was 62,5% when sugar cane was 15 months of age. The concentration of the elements (tables 4 and 5 in Portuguese) present a general trend of decreasing as the cane grows older. In the stalks this is true for all elements studied in this experiment. But in the leaves, somme elements, like sulfur and silicon, appears to increase with the increasing of age. Others, like calcium and magnesium do not show large variations, and finally a third group, formed by nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium seems to decrease at the beginning and later presents a light increasing. The concentration of the elements was higher in the leaves than in the stalks from 6 up to 15 months of age. There were some exceptions. Potassium, magnesium and sulfur were higher in the stalks than in the leaves from 6 up to 8 or 9 months of age. After 9 months, the leaves presented more potassium, magnesium and sulfur than the stalks. The percentage of nitrogen in the leaves was lower in the plants that received fertilizer than in the plants without fertilizer with 6, 7, 8, 10, 11 and 13 months of age. This can be explained by "dilution effect". The uptake of elements by 4 stools (stalks and leaves) of sugar cane according to the plant age is showed in table 6, in Portuguese. The absorption of all studied elements, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, magnesium, sulfur and silicon, was higher in plants that received fertilizer. The trend of uptake of nitrogen and potassium is similar to the trend of production of dry matter, that is, the maximum absorption of those two nutrients occurs between 9 and 13 months of age. Finaly, the maxima amounts of elements absorbed by 4 stools (stalks and leaves) of sugar cane plants that received fertilizer are condensed in the following table: Element Maximum absorption in grams Age of the plants in months Nitrogen (N) 81.0 14 Phosphorus (P) 6.8 15 Potassium (K) 81.5 15 Calcium (Ca) 19.2 15 Magnesium (Mg) 13.9 13 Sulfur (S) 9.3 15 Silicon (Si) 61.8 15 It is very interesting to note the low absorption of phosphorus even with 100 kg of P2O5 per hectare, aplied as superphosphate. The uptake of phosphorus was lower than calcium, magnesium and sulfur. Also, it is noteworthy the large amount of silicon absorbed by sugar cane.

Climate and nest opening orientation in Furnarius rufus (Furnariidae)

The Rufous Hornero (Furnarius rufus) is one of the most common bird species in Brazil. Anecdotal information indicates that nest opening orientation in this species is contrary to wind or rainfall direction. To check for the existence of such a pattern, F. rufus nests were randomly sampled within an urban area in central Brazil to assess whether factors such as wind and vegetation cover influence nest opening orientation. Using circular statistics, no evidence was found that nest-opening orientation was important for the species. These results refuse the expected pattern for tree hollow or enclosed nests. The results suggest that factors such as nesting architecture, nest material, nest microclimate or a combination of these, instead of local climate, must be conditioning nesting behavior in this species.

Reproductive biology of Leptodactylus fuscus (Anura, Leptodactylidae) in the subtropical climate, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

The aim of this study was to characterize, for the central region of the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, the reproductive biology of Leptodactylus fuscus (Schneider, 1799), based on the analysis of gonadal development of males and females, reproductive effort, size-fecundity relationships, and occurrence of sexual dimorphism in body size. Mature individuals were found from October 1996 to February 1997 and from October 1997 to December 1997. The highest input of juveniles in the population was recorded in March 1997. There was a positive and significant correlation between the number of mature individuals and the mean monthly temperature. The population did not present sexual dimorphism in size. Males presented significant correlation only between snout-vent length and testes length. All females had oocytes at four different maturation stages and there were no significant correlations regarding size-fecundity variables. The correlation between ovarian size factor and females snout-vent length was not significant either. The main difference between this population and those that inhabit tropical climate was that temperature was responsible for stimulating the reproduction activity, instead of rainfall.

Can climate shape flight activity patterns of Plebeia remota Hymenoptera, Apidae)?

Flight activity of foragers of four colonies of Plebeia remota (Holmberg, 1903) was registered from December 1998 to December 1999, using an automated system (photocells and PLC system). The colonies originated from two different regions: Cunha, state of São Paulo, and Prudentópolis, state of Paraná, Brazil. Flight activity was influenced by different climatic factors in each season. In the summer, the intensity of the correlations between flight activity and climatic factors was smaller than in the other seasons. During the autumn and winter, solar radiation was the factor that most influenced flight activity, while in the spring, this activity was influenced mainly by temperature. Except in the summer, the various climatic factors similarly influenced flight activity of all of the colonies. Flight activity was not affected by geographic origin of the colonies. Information concerning seasonal differences in flight activity of P. remota will be useful for prediction of geographic distribution scenarios under climatic changes.

Climate and land-use changes effects on the distribution of a regional endemism: Melanophryniscus sanmartini (Amphibia, Bufonidae)

ABSTRACT Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrate group according to the IUCN. Land-use and land cover change (LULCC) and climate change (CC) are two of the main factors related to declining amphibian populations. Given the vulnerability of threatened and rare species, the study of their response to these impacts is a conservation priority. The aim of this work was to analyze the combined impact of LULCC and CC on the regionally endemic species Melanophryniscus sanmartini Klappenbach, 1968. This species is currently categorized as near threatened by the IUCN, and previous studies suggest negative effects of projected changes in climate. Using maximum entropy methods we modeled the effects of CC on the current and mid-century distribution of M. sanmartini under two IPCC scenarios - A2 (severe) and B2 (moderate). The effects of LULCC were studied by superimposing the potential distribution with current land use, while future distribution models were evaluated under the scenario of maximum expansion of soybean and afforestation in Uruguay. The results suggest that M. sanmartini is distributed in eastern Uruguay and the south of Brazil, mainly related to hilly and grasslands systems. Currently more than 10% of this species' distribution is superimposed by agricultural crops and exotic forest plantations. Contrasting with a recent modelling study our models suggest an expansion of the distribution of M. sanmartini by mid-century under both climate scenarios. However, despite the rise in climatically suitable areas for the species in the future, LULCC projections indicate that the proportion of modified habitats will occupy up to 25% of the distribution of M. sanmartini. Future change in climate conditions could represent an opportunity for M. sanmartini, but management measures are needed to mitigate the effects of habitat modification in order to ensure its survival and allow the eventual expansion of its distribution.

Plate tectonics, seaways and climate in the historical biogeography of mammals

The marsupial and placental mammals originated at a time when the pattern of geographical barriers (oceans, shallow seas and mountains) was very different from that of today, and climates were warmer. The sequence of changes in these barriers, and their effects on the dispersal of the mammal families and on the faunas of mammals in the different continents, are reviewed. The mammal fauna of South America changed greatly in the Pliocene/Pleistocene, when the newly-complete Panama Isthmus allowed the North American fauna to enter the continent and replace most of the former South American mammal families. Marsupial, but not placental, mammals reached Australia via Antarctica before Australia became isolated, while rats and bats are the only placentals that dispersed naturally from Asia to Australia in the late Cenozoic. Little is known of the early history of the mammal fauna of India. A few mammal families reached Madagascar from Africa in the early Cenozoic over a chain of islands. Africa was isolated for much of the early Cenozoic, though some groups did succeed in entering from Europe. Before the climate cooled in the mid-Cenozoic, the mammal faunas of the Northern Hemisphere were much richer than those of today.

Domiciliation Trend of Panstrongylus rufotuberculatus in Colombia

The present paper presents evidence of the domiciliation of Panstrongylus rufotuberculatus in La Gardenia, Colombia through the collection of 2 unhatched eggs, 81 nymphs and 10 adults (4 males and 6 females), from 2 rural houses. The transmission risk indicators of Trypanosoma cruzi by P. rufotuberculatus in La Gardenia, were: domiciliary infestation 7.5%, density 2.35, colonization 66.6%, overcrowding 31.33, natural infection 4.6%, and relative infection 2.5%. These results and findings in Peru and Argentina, show that P. rufotuberculatus has a potential success in domiciliation and could some day become an alternate vector of American trypanosomiasis.

Study of the relationship between Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti egg and adult densities, dengue fever and climate in Mirassol, state of São Paulo, Brazil

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between Aedes aegypti egg and adult density indices, dengue fever and climate in Mirassol, state of São Paulo, Brazil, between November 2004-November 2005. Weekly collections of adults and eggs were made using, respectively, manual aspirators and oviposition traps that produced four entomological indices (positivity and average of females and eggs). Weekly incidence coefficients were calculated based on dengue cases. Each week, the data obtained from entomological indices were related to each other, dengue, and climate variables. The first index to show an association with dengue transmission was the female average, followed by female positivity and egg average. Egg positivity did not show a relationship with risk for dengue, but was sensitive to identifying the presence of the vector, principally in dry seasons. The relationship between climatic factors, the vector and the disease found in this study can be widely employed in planning and undertaking dengue surveillance and control activities, but it is a tool that has not been considered by the authorities responsible for controlling the disease. In fact, this relationship permits the use of information about climate for early detection of epidemics and for establishing more effective prevention strategies than currently exist.

Association of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) population density with climate variables in Montes Claros, an area of American visceral leishmaniasis transmission in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

In the present paper, we evaluate the relationship between climate variables and population density of Lutzomyia longipalpis in Montes Claros, an area of active transmission of American visceral leishmaniasis (AVL) in Brazil. Entomological captures were performed in 10 selected districts of the city, between September 2002-August 2003. A total of 773 specimens of L. longipalpiswere captured in the period and the population density could be associated with local climate variables (cumulative rainfall, average temperature and relative humidity) through a mathematical linear model with a determination coefficient (Rsqr) of 0.752. Although based on an oversimplified statistical analysis, as far as the vector is concerned, this approach showed to be potentially useful as a starting point to guide control measures for AVL in Montes Claros.

Influence of litter layer removal on the soil thermal regime of a pine forest in a mediterranean climate

The removal of the litter layer in Portuguese pine forests would reduce fire hazard, but on the other hand this practice would influence the thermal regime of the soil, hence affecting soil biological activity, litter decomposition and nutrient dynamics. Temperature profiles of a sandy soil (Haplic Podzol) under a pine forest were measured with thermocouples at depths to 16 cm, with and without litter layer. The litter layer acted as a thermal insulator, reducing the amplitude of the periodic temperature variation in the mineral soil underneath and increasing damping depths, particularly at low soil water contents. At the mineral soil surface the reduction of amplitudes was about 2.5 ºC in the annual cycle and 5 to 6.7 ºC in the daily cycle, depending on the soil water content. When soil was both cold and wet, mean daily soil temperatures were higher (about 1 - 1.5 ºC) under the litter layer. Improved soil thermal conditions under the litter layer recommend its retention as a forest management practice to follow in general.

Effects of leaf compounds, climate and natural enemies on the incidence of thrips in cassava

The objective of this study was to determine the effects of rainfall, temperature, sunlight and relative humidity, as well as predators and parasitoids, leaf chemical composition and levels of leaf nitrogen and potassium on the intensity of Scirtothrips manihoti (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) attack on cassava Manihot esculenta Crantz var. Cacau. The leaf compounds (E)-farnesene/trans-farnesol and D-friedoolean-14-en-3-one correlated significantly with the population of S. manihoti. Insect population decreased in the dry and cold season probably due to leaf senescence. Significative correlation was observed between Syrphidae with S. manihoti populations.

Risk analysis of climate change on coffee nematodes and leaf miner in Brazil

The objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes (races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella), using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's (scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest, due to greater number of generations per month, than occurred under the climatological normal from 1961-1990. The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario, but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms.

Maize leaf development under climate change scenarios

The objective of this work was to simulate maize leaf development in climate change scenarios at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in air temperature. The model of Wang & Engel for leaf appearance rate (LAR), with genotype-specific coefficients for the maize variety BRS Missões, was used to simulate tip and expanded leaf accumulated number from emergence to flag leaf appearance and expansion, for nine emergence dates from August 15 to April 15. LAR model was run for each emergence date in 100-year climate scenarios: current climate, and +1, +2, +3, +4 and +5°C increase in mean air temperature, with symmetric and asymmetric increase in daily minimum and maximum air temperature. Maize crop failure due to frost decreased in elevated temperature scenarios, in the very early and very late emergence dates, indicating a lengthening in the maize growing season in warmer climates. The leaf development period in maize was shorter in elevated temperature scenarios, with greater shortening in asymmetric temperature increases, indicating that warmer nights accelerate vegetative development in maize.