INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

MICROJARDIM CLONAL DE MIRTILEIRO EM SISTEMAS DE CULTIVO SEM SOLO

RESUMO O uso de microjardins clonais em sistemas de cultivo sem solo para fornecimento de material propagativo na cultura do mirtileiro (Vaccinium spp.) pode trazer grandes avanços na produção de mudas dessa cultura. O objetivo desta pesquisa foi avaliar a produção de microestacas e a sobrevivência de plantas matrizes de mirtileiro micropropagadas das cultivares Woodard e Aliceblue, em dois sistemas de cultivo. Os sistemas de cultivo utilizados foram o semi-hidropônico (floreiras com substrato de areia e fornecimento diário de solução nutritiva) e o com substrato organomineral (sacos plásticos com substrato comercial e fornecimento de solução nutritiva a cada 15 dias). Após o período de 90 dias do plantio das plantas matrizes, foram iniciadas as coletas de microestacas, as quais foram realizadas a cada 60 dias, com exceção do período de inverno, em que as coletas foram realizadas a cada 90 dias, totalizando ao final do experimento onze coletas. O experimento foi constituído como um fatorial 2 x 2 x 11 (sistemas x cultivares x coletas), em delineamento inteiramente casualizado, com três repetições de 12 plantas cada. Foram avaliadas a produção total de microestacas ao final das onze coletas, o número de microestacas produzidas por planta matriz a cada coleta, a sobrevivência das plantas matrizes ao final das onze coletas e a sobrevivência das plantas matrizes a cada coleta. Os resultados indicaram que o sistema semi-hidropônico foi superior ao substrato organomineral para a produção de microestacas de ambas as cultivares. A maior produtividade total de microestacas ocorreu no sistema semi-hidropônico combinado com a cultivar Aliceblue, com produção total média de 237,67 microestacas. Porém, nesta condição, houve menor sobrevivência das plantas matrizes. A produção de microestacas apresentou alternância ao longo das coletas. A sobrevivência das plantas matrizes diminuiu após sucessivas coletas. Após as coletas de verão, ocorreu maior mortalidade de plantas matrizes.

Em busca da sustentabilidade: células solares sensibilizadas por extratos naturais

The present work reports the use of anthocyanins extracted from mulberry (Morus Alba L.), raspberry (Rubus Idaeus L.) and blueberry (Vaccinium myrtillus L.) as sensitizers in dye-sensitized solar cells. The conversion efficiency of these devices is dependent on the extracts employed and can be rationalized in terms of their composition and spectral properties. Solar cells sensitized by the mulberry extract showed the highest efficiency among the fruits investigated. Moreover, a 16 cm² active area solar cell with the mulberry extract has presented fair good efficiency of conversion for natural dye-based solar cells, besides stability over twenty weeks, showing perspectives for developing these low cost devices with a commercial viability.

CÉLULAS SOLARES SENSIBILIZADAS POR CORANTES NATURAIS: UM EXPERIMENTO INTRODUTÓRIO SOBRE ENERGIA RENOVÁVEL PARA ALUNOS DE GRADUAÇÃO

An interesting practical experiment about the preparation of dye–sensitized solar cells (DSSC) using natural dyes were carried out by the undergraduate students in the chemistry course at UNICAMP . Natural dyes were extracted from blueberries (Vaccinium myrtillus L.), jabuticabas (Myrciaria cauliflora), raw and cooked beets (Beta vulgaris L.), and annattos (Bixa orellana L.), which were used to sensitize TiO2 films that composed the photoanode in the DSSC. A polymer electrolyte containing an iodide/triiodide redox couple was used in lieu of the use of liquid solutions to prevent any leakage in the devices. A maximum solar-to-electric energy conversion of 0.26 ± 0.02% was obtained for the solar cell prepared with annatto extracts. This experiment was an effective way to illustrate to the undergraduate students how to apply some of the chemical concepts that they learned during their chemistry course to produce electric energy from a clean and renewable energy source. Teachers could also exploit the basics of the electronic transitions in inorganic and organic compounds (e.g., metal-to-ligand charge transfer and ϖ-ϖ* transitions), thermodynamics (e.g., Gibbs free energy), acid–base reactions in the oxide solid surface and electrolyte, and band theory (i.e., the importance of the Fermi level energy).

Rheological behavior of blueberry

The physical and physicochemical characteristics of blueberry (Vaccinium myrtillus) fruits produced in Brazil were analyzed. Rheological properties were measured at 5, 25, 45 and 65 °C, on a stress controlled rheometer equipped with grooved a stainless-steel parallel-plate in a shear rate range of 0-300 s-1, with the objective of determining the influence of temperature on the rheological properties. The pseudoplastic behavior with yield stress was well described by the Ostwald-de-Waele (Power Law), Herschel-Bulkley (HB) and Mizhari Berk models. The yield stress and behavior index decreased with the increase in the temperatures for 5, 25, and 45 °C whereas for the temperature of 65 °C the effects were the opposite exhibiting elevated values. The viscosity decreased with an increase in temperature, and the Arrhenius equation described adequately the effect of temperature on the apparent viscosity of the puree, in which the activation energy (Ea) determined at a shear rate of 100 s-1 was 9.36 kJ.mol-1.

Phenolic compounds and antioxidant activity of blueberry cultivars grown in Brazil

The aim of this study was to evaluate the content of the phenolic compounds and anthocyanins and the antioxidant activity of blueberry (Vaccinium sp.) cultivars grown in Brazil. The Folin-Ciocalteau method was applied in order to quantify the phenolic compounds and ABTS, DPPH, FRAP, and β-carotene/linoleic acid methods were applied in order to evaluated antioxidant activity. The phenolic compounds content ranged from 274.48 to 694.60 mg GAE.100 g-1 of fresh weight (FW). Anthocyanins content ranged from 40.62 to 378.31 mg.100 g-1 FW for Bluecrop and Tifblue cultivars, respectively. Antioxidant activities assessed by ABTS, DPPH and FRAP methods presented significant differences among the studied cultivars ranging from 1238.48 to 2445.96, 1014.24 to 2055.06 and 699.78 to 1740.25 µmol TEAC.100 g-1 FW, respectively. The results confirm the blueberry as a source of phenolic compounds with high antioxidant activity and also show that there are different levels of concentrations of phenolic compounds and antioxidant activity according to the cultivar and production location.