41 resultados para Survivorship bias
Resumo:
This paper deals with the estimation of milk production by means of weekly, biweekly, bimonthly observations and also by method known as 6-5-8, where one observation is taken at the 6th week of lactation, another at 5th month and a third one at the 8th month. The data studied were obtained from 72 lactations of the Holstein Friesian breed of the "Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz" (Piracicaba), S. Paulo, Brazil), being 6 calvings on each month of year and also 12 first calvings, 12 second calvings, and so on, up to the sixth. The authors criticize the use of "maximum error" to be found in papers dealing with this subject, and also the use of mean deviation. The former is completely supersed and unadvisable and latter, although equivalent, to a certain extent, to the usual standard deviation, has only 87,6% of its efficiency, according to KENDALL (9, pp. 130-131, 10, pp. 6-7). The data obtained were compared with the actual production, obtained by daily control and the deviations observed were studied. Their means and standard deviations are given on the table IV. Inspite of BOX's recent results (11) showing that with equal numbers in all classes a certain inequality of varinces is not important, the autors separated the methods, before carrying out the analysis of variance, thus avoiding to put together methods with too different standard deviations. We compared the three first methods, to begin with (Table VI). Then we carried out the analysis with the four first methods. (Table VII). Finally we compared the two last methods. (Table VIII). These analysis of variance compare the arithmetic means of the deviations by the methods studied, and this is equivalent to compare their biases. So we conclude tht season of calving and order of calving do not effect the biases, and the methods themselves do not differ from this view point, with the exception of method 6-5-8. Another method of attack, maybe preferrable, would be to compare the estimates of the biases with their expected mean under the null hypothesis (zero) by the t-test. We have: 1) Weekley control: t = x - 0/c(x) = 8,59 - 0/ = 1,56 2) Biweekly control: t = 11,20 - 0/6,21= 1,80 3) Monthly control: t = 7,17 - 0/9,48 = 0,76 4) Bimonthly control: t = - 4,66 - 0/17,56 = -0,26 5) Method 6-5-8 t = 144,89 - 0/22,41 = 6,46*** We denote above by three asterisks, significance the 0,1% level of probability. In this way we should conclude that the weekly, biweekly, monthly and bimonthly methods of control may be assumed to be unbiased. The 6-5-8 method is proved to be positively biased, and here the bias equals 5,9% of the mean milk production. The precision of the methods studied may be judged by their standard deviations, or by intervals covering, with a certain probability (95% for example), the deviation x corresponding to an estimate obtained by cne of the methods studied. Since the difference x - x, where x is the mean of the 72 deviations obtained for each method, has a t distribution with mean zero and estimate of standard deviation. s(x - x) = √1+ 1/72 . s = 1.007. s , and the limit of t for the 5% probability, level with 71 degrees of freedom is 1.99, then the interval to be considered is given by x ± 1.99 x 1.007 s = x ± 2.00. s The intervals thus calculated are given on the table IX.
Resumo:
Lucilia cuprina (Wiedemann, 1830) is a cosmopolite blowfly species of medical and veterinary importance because it produces myiasis, mainly in ovine. In order to evaluate the demographic characteristics of this species, survivorship curves for 327 adult males and 323 adult females, from generation F1 maintained under experimental conditions, were obtained. Entropy was utilized as the estimator of the survival pattern to quantify the mortality distribution of individuals as a function of age. The entropy values 0.216 (males) and 0.303 (females) were obtained. These results denote that, considering the survivorship interval until the death of the last individual for each sex, the males present a tendency of mortality in more advanced age intervals, in comparison with the females.
Resumo:
This study has been carried out at the central region of the Araguaia river on the border between the states of Goiás and Mato Grosso in the Brazilian Amazon Basin from September to December 2000. We recorded temperature fluctuation, clutch-size, incubation period and hatching success rate and hatchlings' sex ratio of five nests of Podocnemis expansa (Schweigger, 1812). Despite the relatively small sample size we infer that: a) nests of P. expansa in the central Araguaia river have a lower incubation temperature than nests located further south; however, incubation period is shorter, hatching success rate is lower and clutch-size is larger; b) Podocnemis expansa may present a female-male-female (FMF) pattern of temperature sex-determination (TSD); c) thermosensitive period of sex determination apparently occur at the last third of the incubation period; and, d) future studies should prioritize the relationship between temperature variation (i.e., range and cycle) and embryos development, survivorship and sex determination.
Resumo:
Relative to their pre-engorgement weights, nulliparous Anopheles nuneztovari consumed significantly smaller blood meals than A. marajoara, A. triannulatus or A. aquasalis. When females were deprived of sugar before blood feeding, only one-quarter of A. nuneztovari, but more than two-thirds of A. marajoara, A. triannulatus and A. aquasalis matured eggs. Sugar feeding before blood, or two sucessive blood meals by sugar-deprived females, increased the proportion of nulliparous a. nuneztovari which developed eggs, but not significantly so. Nearly all individuals of nulliparous, sugar-fed A. marajoara, A. triannulatus and A. aquasalis matured eggs after one blood feeding. Among A. nuneztovari, A. marajoara and A. aquasalis that matured some eggs in the laboratory, there were no positive correlations between the number of eggs developed and relative vlood mealsize. However, blood meals larger than the mean size significantly increased the chance that A. nuneztovari would develop some eggs. Mean fecundities of gravid A. nuneztovari and A. marajoara reared in the laboratory were significantly lower than those of the same species captured at human bait in nature. Post-engorgement access to sugar by A. nuneztovari (captured at human bait) did not influence fecundity, but significantly enhanced survivorship and the proporticon of individuals which retained eggs. Release-recapture experiments revealed that relatively small blood meals are typical of A. nuneztovari only during the first gonotrophic cycle. We suggest that multiple blood feeding, seemingly necessary for most A. nuneztovari to develop a first clutch of eggs, may increase the probability of infection with Plasmodium vivax where this mosquito species is a primary vector.
Resumo:
This paper discusses current evidence for the relationship between polyclonal lymphocyte activation, specific immunossupression with decreased resistance, and autoimmune pathology, that are all often found associated with infections by a variety of virus, bacteria and parasites . The central question of class determination of immune effector activities is considered in the context of the cellular targets for nonspecific mitogenic activities associated with infection. A model is presented to integrate these findings: mitogenens produced by the microorganism or the infected cells are preferentially active on CD5 B cells, the resulting over-production of IL-10 will tend to bias all immune activities in to a Th-2mode of effector functions, with high titers of polyclonal antibodies and litle or no production of gamma IFN and other "inflamatory"lymphokines that often mediate resistance. In turn these conditions allow for parasite persistence and the corresponding long-term disregulation of self-directed immune reactivities, resulting in autoimmunity in the chronic phase. This model would predict that selective immunization with the mitogenic principles involved in desregulation, could stand better chances than strategies of vaccination based on immunopotentiation against othere, functionally neutral antigenic epitopes. It is argued, however, that the complexity of immune responses and their regulation together with our ignorance on the genetic controls of class-determination, offer poor prospects for a scientifically-based, rational development of vaccines in the near future. It is suggested that empirically-based and technologically developed vaccines might suceed, while basic scientific approaches are reinforced and given the time provide a better understanding of those process.
Resumo:
During recent years, several Leishmania infantum genes have been cloned and characterized. Here, we have summarized the available information on the gene organization and expression in this protozoan parasite. From a comparative analysis, the following outstanding features were found to be common to most of the genes characterized: tandemly organized genes with conserved coding regions and divergent untranslated regions, polycistronic transcription and post-transcriptional regulation of gene expression. The analysis of chromosomes of L. infantum by pulsed-field electrophoresis showed the existence of both size and number polymorphisms such that each strain has a distinctive molecular karyotype. Despite this variability, highly conserved physical linkage groups exists among different strains of L. infantum and even among Old World Leishmania species. Gene mapping on the L. infantum molecular karyotype evidenced a bias in chromosomal distribution of, at least, the evolutionary conserved genes
Resumo:
Humoral and cellular immune responses are currently induced against hepatitis C virus (HCV) core following vaccination with core-encoding plasmids. However, the anti-core antibody response is frequently weak or transient. In this paper, we evaluated the effect of different additives and DNA-protein combinations on the anti-core antibody response. BALB/c mice were intramuscularly injected with an expression plasmid (pIDKCo), encoding a C-terminal truncated variant of the HCV core protein, alone or combined with CaCl2, PEG 6000, Freund's adjuvant, sonicated calf thymus DNA and a recombinant core protein (Co.120). Mixture of pIDKCo with PEG 6000 and Freund's adjuvant accelerated the development of the anti-core Ab response. Combination with PEG 6000 also induced a bias to IgG2a subclass predominance among anti-core antibodies. The kinetics, IgG2a/IgG1 ratio and epitope specificity of the anti-core antibody response elicited by Co.120 alone or combined with pIDKCo was different regarding that induced by the pIDKCo alone. Our data indicate that the antibody response induced following DNA immunization can be modified by formulation strategies.
Resumo:
From January 1995 to August 1997 we evaluated prospectively the clinical presentation, laboratory findings and short-term survival of smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) patients who sought care at our hospital. After providing informed, written consent, the patients were interviewed and laboratory tests were performed. Information about survivorship and death was collected through September 1998. Eighty-six smear-positive pulmonary TB patients were enrolled; 26.7% were HIV-seropositive. Seventeen HIV-seronegative pulmonary TB patients (19.8%) presented chronic diseases in addition to TB. In the multiple logistic regression analysis a CD4+ cell count <= 200 cell/mm³ was independently associated with HIV seropositivity. In the Cox regression model, fitted to all patients, HIV seropositivity and age > or = 50 years were independently associated with decreased survival. Among HIV-seronegative persons, the presence of an additional disease increased the risk of death of almost six-fold. Use of antiretroviral drugs was associated with a lower risk of death among HIV-seropositive smear-positive pulmonary TB patients (RH = 0.32, 95% CI 0.10-0.92). In our study smear-positive pulmonary TB patients had a low short-term survival rate that was strongly associated with HIV infection, age and co-morbidities. Therapy with antiretroviral drugs reduced the short-term risk of death among HIV-seropositive patients after TB diagnosis.
Resumo:
We evaluated the potential of Mesocyclops annulatus as a control agent of Aedes aegypti in La Plata city (Argentina). Mosquito larval survivorship due to predation by these copepods was estimated at weekly intervals during the oviposition period of A. aegypti. Mean weekly A. aegypti larval survivorship in cylindrical plastic containers (12 cm height and 11 cm diameter) with copepods was significantly lower than in control containers. Furthermore, weekly larval survival was negatively correlated with M. annulatus adult density, and approximately 23 adult copepods/container would be a threshold density over which the weekly mosquito larval survivorship approached zero. The copepods were able to persist in all containers during approximately 100 days (in three of them until the end of the experiment: 155 days) without the resource represented by A. aegypti larvae. The predation and persistence observed suggest that M. annulatus is a potential control agent to be considered in biological control programs.
Resumo:
Rubidium chloride (RbCl) has been used for the study of vector biology and behavior, although the efficacy of marking, egg production, and survivorship of marked females have been poorly studied. Four concentrations of RbCl were tested, among which 0.025 M was the best for marking Aedes albopictus: more than 80% of egg batches of females fed once with blood containing RbCl were marked; Rb-marked egg batches, interspersed with non marked ones were recovered until 61 days after a blood meal containing RbCl followed by non marked meals; RbCl was essentially detected in the abdomen of marked females, whose egg production and survivorship did not differ from non marked ones, at least in the three weeks following the Rb-marked blood meal.
Resumo:
The CTLA-4 protein is expressed in activated T cells and plays an essential role in the immune response through its regulatory effect on T cell activation. Polymorphisms of the CTLA-4 gene have been correlated with autoimmune, neoplastic and infectious illnesses. This work aimed to verify possible associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in CTLA-4, -318C/T in the promoter and +49A/G in exon 1 and paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM) caused by Paracoccidioides brasiliensis. For this purpose, 66 chronic form PCM patients and 76 healthy controls had their allele, genotype and haplotype frequencies determined. The genetic admixture structure of the patients and controls was evaluated to eliminate ancestral bias. The comparison of frequencies indicated no significant differences between patients and controls that could link the SNPs to PCM. Groups were admixture matched with no difference observed in population ancestry inference, indicating that the absence of association between CTLA-4 polymorphisms and PCM could not be attributed to ancestral bias. This study showed that there was no association between the CTLA-4 SNPs -318 and +49 and the resistance or susceptibility to PCM.