Daily birth numbers in Passo Fundo, South Brazil, 1997-1999: trends and periodicities

Between October 6, 1997 and April 30, 1999, 5011 births (mean: 8.76 per day) were registered in the city of Passo Fundo, South Brazil. The sequence of 572 daily birth numbers was not random (iteration test). Neyman distribution (m = ¥) showed the best fit. Clusters of days with higher birth numbers alternated with days with low numbers of births. Periodogram analysis revealed a significant periodicity of 6.98 days. The cosinor regression, testing 10 a priori supposed period lengths, found significant seasonality peaking in August-September and significantly highest birth numbers on Thursdays. Among the lunar and solar rotation cycles, the tropic lunar cycle and its 4th harmonic were most pronounced, in agreement with results concerning natality in Germany obtained by Svante Arrhenius in the 19th century. These findings confirm Derer-Halberg's concept of multiseptans. In addition to cycling, a significantly increasing linear trend with a daily increase of 0.0045 births was encountered. This documents a growth of the population in agreement with national statistical data.

Trends in the modes of delivery and their impact on perinatal mortality rates

OBJECTIVE: To determine changes in the incidence of vaginal deliveries, cesarean sections, and forceps deliveries and their potential association with fetal, early neonatal, and perinatal mortality rates over time. METHODS: A retrospective study was carried out and the occurrence of deliveries supervised by university services between January 1991 and December 2000 was determined. Data regarding fetal, early neonatal, and perinatal deaths were assessed using obstetric and pediatric records and autopsy reports. RESULTS: Of a total of 33,360 deliveries, the incidence of vaginal deliveries, cesarean sections, and forceps deliveries was relatively steady (around 60, 30, and 10%, respectively) while, at the same time, there was a marked reduction in fetal mortality (from 33.3 to 13.0‰), early neonatal mortality (from 30.6 to 9.0‰), and perinatal mortality (from 56.4 to 19.3‰). CONCLUSIONS: The marked reduction in perinatal mortality rates seen during the study period without an increase in cesarean sections indicates that the decrease in perinatal mortality was not impacted by cesarean section rates. The plausible hypothesis seems to be that the reduction in perinatal mortality of deliveries performed under the supervision of university services was more likely to be associated with better neonatal care rather than the mode of delivery.

Gender and racial inequalities in trends of oral cancer mortality in Sao Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE:To analyse recent trends in oral cancer mortality, focusing specifically on differences concerning gender and race.METHODS:Official information on deaths and population in the city of Sao Paulo, 2003 to 2009, were used to estimate mortality rates from oral cancer (C00 to C10, International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision), adjusted for age and stratified by gender (females and males) and race (blacks and whites). The Prais-Winsten auto-regression procedure was used to analyse the time series.RESULTS:During the study period, 8,505 individuals living in the city of Sao Paulo died of oral cancer. Rates increased for females (rate of yearly increase = 4.4%, 95%CI 1.4;7.5), and levelled off for men, which represents an inversion of previous trends among genders in the city. Increases were identified for blacks, with a high rate of yearly increase of 9.1% (95%CI 5.5;12.9), and levelled off for whites. Oral cancer mortality in blacks almost doubled during the study period, and surpassed mortality in whites for almost all categories.CONCLUSIONS:Mortality presented a higher increase among women than in men, and it doubled among backs. The surveillance of trends of oral cancer mortality across gender and racial groups may contribute to implementing socially appropriate health policies, which concurrently reduce the burden of disease and the attenuation of unfair, avoidable and unnecessary inequalities in health.

Temporal trends and spatial distribution of unsafe abortion in Brazil, 1996-2012

OBJECTIVE To analyze temporal trends and distribution patterns of unsafe abortion in Brazil. METHODS Ecological study based on records of hospital admissions of women due to abortion in Brazil between 1996 and 2012, obtained from the Hospital Information System of the Ministry of Health. We estimated the number of unsafe abortions stratified by place of residence, using indirect estimate techniques. The following indicators were calculated: ratio of unsafe abortions/100 live births and rate of unsafe abortion/1,000 women of childbearing age. We analyzed temporal trends through polynomial regression and spatial distribution using municipalities as the unit of analysis. RESULTS In the study period, a total of 4,007,327 hospital admissions due to abortions were recorded in Brazil. We estimated a total of 16,905,911 unsafe abortions in the country, with an annual mean of 994,465 abortions (mean unsafe abortion rate: 17.0 abortions/1,000 women of childbearing age; ratio of unsafe abortions: 33.2/100 live births). Unsafe abortion presented a declining trend at national level (R2: 94.0%, p < 0.001), with unequal patterns between regions. There was a significant reduction of unsafe abortion in the Northeast (R2: 93.0%, p < 0.001), Southeast (R2: 92.0%, p < 0.001) and Central-West regions (R2: 64.0%, p < 0.001), whereas the North (R2: 39.0%, p = 0.030) presented an increase, and the South (R2: 22.0%, p = 0.340) remained stable. Spatial analysis identified the presence of clusters of municipalities with high values for unsafe abortion, located mainly in states of the North, Northeast and Southeast Regions. CONCLUSIONS Unsafe abortion remains a public health problem in Brazil, with marked regional differences, mainly concentrated in the socioeconomically disadvantaged regions of the country. Qualification of attention to women’s health, especially to reproductive aspects and attention to pre- and post-abortion processes, are necessary and urgent strategies to be implemented in the country.

Trends in healthy life expectancy among older Brazilian women between 1998 and 2008

OBJECTIVE To analyze conditional and unconditional healthy life expectancy among older Brazilian women.METHODS This cross-sectional study used the intercensal technique to estimate, in the absence of longitudinal data, healthy life expectancy that is conditional and unconditional on the individual’s current health status. The data used were obtained from the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (National Household Sample Survey) of 1998, 2003, and 2008. This sample comprised 11,171; 13,694; and 16,259 women aged 65 years or more, respectively. Complete mortality tables from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics for the years 2001 and 2006 were also used. The definition of health status was based on the difficulty in performing activities of daily living.RESULTS The remaining lifetime was strongly dependent on the current health status of the older women. Between 1998 and 2003, the amount of time lived with disability for healthy women at age 65 was 9.8%. This percentage increased to 66.2% when the women already presented some disability at age 65. Temporal analysis showed that the active life expectancy of the women at age 65 increased between 1998-2003 (19.3 years) and 2003-2008 (19.4 years). However, life years gained have been mainly focused on the unhealthy state.CONCLUSIONS Analysis of conditional and unconditional life expectancy indicated that live years gained are a result of the decline of mortality in unhealthy states. This pattern suggests that there has been no reduction in morbidity among older women in Brazil between 1998 and 2008.

Trends in alcohol and tobacco use among Brazilian students: 1989 to 2010

OBJECTIVE To analyze temporal trends of the prevalence of alcohol and tobacco use among Brazilian students. METHODS We analyzed data published between 1989 and 2010 from five epidemiological surveys on students from the 6th to the 12th grade of public schools from the ten largest state capitals of Brazil. The total sample consisted of 104,104 students and data were collected in classrooms. The same collection tool – a World Health Organization self-reporting questionnaire – and sampling and weighting procedures were used in the five surveys. The Chi-square test for trend was used to compare the prevalence from different years. RESULTS The prevalence of alcohol and tobacco use varied among the years and cities studied. Alcohol consumption decreased in the 10 state capitals (p < 0.001) throughout 21 years. Tobacco use also decreased significantly in eight cities (p < 0.001). The highest prevalence of alcohol use was found in the Southeast region in 1993 (72.8%, in Belo Horizonte) and the lowest one in Belem (30.6%) in 2010. The highest past-year prevalence of tobacco use was found in the South region in 1997 (28.0%, in Curitiba) and the lowest one in the Southeast in 2010 (7.8%, in Sao Paulo). CONCLUSIONS The decreasing trend in the prevalence of tobacco and alcohol use among students detected all over the Country can be related to the successful and comprehensive Brazilian antitobacco and antialcohol policies. Despite these results, the past-year prevalence of alcohol consumption in the past year remained high in all Brazilian regions.

Temporal trends in the prevalence of asthma and rhinoconjunctivitis in adolescents

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the temporal trend of asthma and rhinoconjunctivitis prevalences as well as their symptoms in adolescents. METHODS Two cross-sectional studies were conducted using the same methodology and questionnaire as was used for adolescents aged 12 to 14 years in the Brazilian city of Florianopolis, SC, Southern Brazil. Based on the international protocol of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) study, adolescents were evaluated in 2001 and 3,150 in 2012. The schools included in this study were the same as in the 2001 study. These schools were randomly selected after stratification by network (public and private) and geographic location. The total average percentage variation was estimated for the prevalence of asthma and rhinoconjunctivitis and their symptoms. RESULTS The prevalence of reported asthma was 10.9% in 2001 and 14.8% in 2012, with an average variation of 2.8% in the period. The highest average variation in the period was observed among female adolescents (4.1%). In parallel a significant increase occurred in reported physician-diagnosed asthma, 7.3% in 2001 and 11,1% in 2012, with an annual variation of 4.5%. The largest increases in reported physician-diagnosed asthma were seen in female (5.9%) and male (4.5%) public school pupils. In addition, a significant increase in reported rhinoconjunctivitis occurred, with the average variation in the period being 5.2%. Reports of severe asthma symptoms remained unchanged during the period, while the annual variation for reported current wheezing (-1.3%) and wheezing during exercise (-1.2%) decreased. CONCLUSIONS The results showed a significant increase in the annual average variation for asthma and rhinoconjunctivitis prevalence during the 2001 to 2012 period.

Clinical patterns and seasonal trends in respiratory syncytial virus hospitalizations in São Paulo, Brazil

The respiratory viruses are recognized as the most frequent lower respiratory tract pathogens for infants and young children in developed countries but less is known for developing populations. The authors conducted a prospective study to evaluate the occurrence, clinical patterns, and seasonal trends of viral infections among hospitalized children with lower respiratory tract disease (Group A). The presence of respiratory viruses in children's nasopharyngeal was assessed at admission in a pediatric ward. Cell cultures and immunofluorescence assays were used for viral identification. Complementary tests included blood and pleural cultures conducted for bacterial investigation. Clinical data and radiological exams were recorded at admission and throughout the hospitalization period. To better evaluate the results, a non- respiratory group of patients (Group B) was also constituted for comparison. Starting in February 1995, during a period of 18 months, 414 children were included- 239 in Group A and 175 in Group B. In Group A, 111 children (46.4%) had 114 viruses detected while only 5 children (2.9%) presented viruses in Group B. Respiratory Syncytial Virus was detected in 100 children from Group A (41.8%), Adenovirus in 11 (4.6%), Influenza A virus in 2 (0.8%), and Parainfluenza virus in one child (0.4%). In Group A, aerobic bacteria were found in 14 cases (5.8%). Respiratory Syncytial Virus was associated to other viruses and/or bacteria in six cases. There were two seasonal trends for Respiratory Syncytial Virus cases, which peaked in May and June. All children affected by the virus were younger than 3 years of age, mostly less than one year old. Episodic diffuse bronchial commitment and/or focal alveolar condensation were the clinical patterns more often associated to Respiratory Syncytial Virus cases. All children from Group A survived. In conclusion, it was observed that Respiratory Syncytial Virus was the most frequent pathogen found in hospitalized children admitted for severe respiratory diseases. Affected children were predominantly infants and boys presenting bronchiolitis and focal pneumonias. Similarly to what occurs in other subtropical regions, the virus outbreaks peak in the fall and their occurrence extends to the winter, which parallels an increase in hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases.

HUMAN T-LYMPHOTROPIC VIRUS 1 (HTLV-1) AND HUMAN T-LYMPHOTROPIC VIRUS 2 (HTLV-2): GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH TRENDS AND COLLABORATION NETWORKS (1989-2012)

Publications are often used as a measure of research work success. Human T-lymphotropic virus (HTLV) type 1 and 2 are human retroviruses, which were discovered in the early 1980s, and it is estimated that 15-20 million people are infected worldwide. This article describes a bibliometric review and a coauthorship network analysis of literature on HTLV indexed in PubMed in a 24-year period. A total of 7,564 documents were retrieved, showing a decrease in the number of documents from 1996 to 2007. HTLV manuscripts were published in 1,074 journals. Japan and USA were the countries with the highest contribution in this field (61%) followed by France (8%). Production ranking changed when the number of publications was normalized by population (Dominican Republic and Japan), by gross domestic product (Guinea-Bissau and Gambia), and by gross national income per capita (Brazil and Japan). The present study has shed light on some of the defining features of scientific collaboration performed by HTLV research community, such as the existence of core researchers responsible for articulating the development of research in the area, facilitating wider collaborative relationships and the integration of new authors in the research groups.

Trends and factors associated with dengue mortality and fatality in Brazil

AbstractINTRODUCTION:Studies that generate information that may reduce the dengue death risk are essential. This study analyzed time trends and risk factors for dengue mortality and fatality in Brazil from 2001 to 2011.METHODS:Time trends for dengue mortality and fatality rates were analyzed using simple linear regression. Associations between the dengue mortality and the case fatality rates and socioeconomic, demographic, and health care indicators at the municipality level were analyzed using negative binomial regression.RESULTS:The dengue hemorrhagic fever case fatality rate increased in Brazil from 2001 to 2011 (β=0.67; p=0.036), in patients aged 0-14 years (β=0.48; p=0.030) and in those aged ≥15 years (β=1.1; p<0.01). Factors associated with the dengue case fatality rate were the average income per capita (MRR=0.99; p=0.038) and the number of basic health units per population (MRR=0.89; p<0.001). Mortality rates increased from 2001 to 2011 (β=0.350; p=0.002).Factors associated with mortality were inequality (RR=1.02; p=0.001) high income per capita (MRR=0.99; p=0.005), and higher proportions of populations living in urban areas (MRR=1.01; p<0.001).CONCLUSIONS:The increases in the dengue mortality and case fatality rates and the associated socioeconomic and health care factors, suggest the need for structural and intersectoral investments to improve living conditions and to sustainably reduce these outcomes.

Secular trends in Klebsiella pneumoniae isolated in a tertiary-care hospital: increasing prevalence and accelerated decline in antimicrobial susceptibility

Abstract: INTRODUCTION Klebsiella pneumoniae has become an increasingly important etiologic agent of nosocomial infections in recent years. This is mainly due to the expression of virulence factors and development of resistance to several antimicrobial drugs. METHODS This retrospective study examines data obtained from the microbiology laboratory of a Brazilian tertiary-care hospital. To assess temporal trends in prevalence and antimicrobial susceptibility, K. pneumoniae isolates were analyzed from 2000 to 2013. The relative frequencies of K. pneumoniae isolation were calculated among all Gram-negative bacilli isolated in each period analyzed. Susceptibility tests were performed using automated systems. RESULTS: From 2000-2006, K. pneumonia isolates comprised 10.7% of isolated Gram-negative bacilli (455/4260). From 2007-2013, this percentage was 18.1% (965/5331). Strictly considering isolates from bloodstream infections, the relative annual prevalence of K. pneumoniae increased from 14-17% to 27-32% during the same periods. A progressive decrease in K. pneumoniae susceptibility to all antimicrobial agents assessed was detected. Partial resistance was also observed to antimicrobial drugs that have been used more recently, such as colistin and tigecycline. CONCLUSIONS Our study indicates that K. pneumoniae has become a major pathogen among hospitalized patients and confirms its recent trend of increasing antimicrobial resistance.

Seasonality, parity rates and transmission indices of Mansonella ozzardi (Manson) (Nematoda: Onchocercidae) by Cerqueirellum argentiscutum (Shelley & Luna Dias) (Diptera: Simulidae) in a lower Solimões River community, Amazonas, Brazil

Mansonella ozzardi is transmitted by two dipterian families, Ceratopogonidae (midges) and Simuliidae (black flies). In Brazil, black flies are vectors for this filariasis until now. In this paper, we determined the seasonality, parity capacity and parasitic infection rate of Cerqueirellum argentiscutum. The work was carried out in the Porto Japão community, Lower Solimões River, Amazonas, Brazil. Results show that the black flies were more abundant during the rainy season (from December to May). The number of parous flies was higher in every sampling during the course of year. Monthly Biting Rate (MBR1 123742.00, MBR2 86701.50) was high, although Parasitic Infection Rate (PIR1 0.06, PIR2 0.08) and Annual Transmission Potential (ATP 7.25) were low in numbers.

Trends in mortality due to ischemic heart disease in the municipality of Goiania, Brazil, during the years between 1980 and 1994

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the trends of specific, standardized coefficients of mortality due to ischemic heart disease according to sex and age during the years 1980 and 1994 in the municipality of Goiania, GO, Brazil. METHODS: Data on deaths were retrieved from the Information on Mortality System of the Ministry of Health; population data were obtained from the Foundation of the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The trends of the specific coefficients were analyzed by triennia of the historical series, including individuals of both sexes from 25 years of age on, partitioned into 6 age groups of ten years intervals. The population data corresponding to the year 1980 were used as the standard for the calculation of each age group coefficient. Analyses were carried out by straight linear regression. RESULTS: Coefficients were greater for males in each triennium of the series and increased with age in both sexes. The study of the trends of the specific age coefficients of both sexes revealed a stable pattern of evolution up to the age of 65-74 years (P>0.05). From 75 years on, a clear-cut decline in mortality due to ischemic heart disease was shown by both sexes. The standardized coefficients also showed a significant decline (p<=0.05). CONCLUSION: The municipality of Goiânia is at present in a stage of epidemiological transition similar to that of developed countries, even though the observed decline is predominantly influenced by the mortality of older individuals (75 years of age or older).

Trends in death from circulatory diseases in Brazil between 1979 and 1996

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the trends in mortality due to circulatory diseases in men and women aged > or = 30 years in Brazil from 1979 to 1996. METHODS: We analyzed population count data obtained from the IBGE Foundation and mortality data obtained from the System of Information on Mortality of the DATASUS of the Ministry of Health. RESULTS: Circulatory diseases, ischemic heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease were the major causes of death in men and women in Brazil. The standardized age coefficient for circulatory disease in men aged > or = 30 years ranged from 620 to 506 deaths/100,000 inhabitants and in women from 483 to 383 deaths/100,000 inhabitants for the years 1979 and 1996, respectively. In men, the mean coefficient for the period was 586.25 deaths with a significant trend towards a decrease (P<0.001) and a decline of 8.25 deaths/year. In women, the mean coefficient for the period was 439.58 deaths, a significant trend towards a decrease (P<0.001) and a rate of decline of 7.53 deaths/year. The same significant trend towards a decrease in death (P<0.001) was observed for ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. Risk of death from these causes was always higher for men of any age group (P<0.001). Cerebrovascular disease was the primary cause of death in women. CONCLUSION: Although circulatory diseases have been the major cause of mortality in men and women in the Brazilian population, with a greater participation by cerebrovascular diseases, a trend towards a decrease in the risk of death from these causes is being observed.

Trends of the Risk of Death due to Circulatory, Cerebrovascular, and Ischemic Heart Diseases in 11 Brazilian Capitals from 1980 to 1998

OBJECTIVE: To assess the trends of the risk of death due to circulatory (CD), cerebrovascular (CVD), and ischemic heart diseases (IHD) in 11 Brazilian capitals from 1980 to 1998. METHODS: Data on mortality due to CD, CVD and IHD were obtained from the Brazilian Health Ministry, and the population estimates were calculated by interpolation with the Lagrange method based on census data from 1980 and 1991 and the population count of 1996. The trends were analyzed with the multiple linear regression method. RESULTS: CD showed a trend towards a decrease in most capitals, except for Brasília, where a mild increase was observed. The cities of Porto Alegre, Curitiba, Rio de Janeiro, Cuiabá, Goiânia, Belém, and Manaus showed a decrease in the risk of death due to CVD and IHD, while the city of Brasília showed an increase in CVD and IHD. The city of São Paulo showed a mild increase in IHD for individuals of both sexes aged 30 to 39 years and for females aged 40 to 59 years. In the cities of Recife and Salvador, a reduction in CD was observed for all ages and both sexes. In the city of Recife, however, an increase in IHD was observed at younger ages (30 to 49 years), and this trend decreased until a mild reduction (-4%) was observed in males ³ 70 years. CONCLUSION: In general, a reduction in the risk of death due to CD and an increase in IHD were observed, mainly in the cities of Recife and Brasília.