Governos autoritários e câmbio nos países latino-americanos

Authoritarian governments and exchange rate policy in Latin American countries. Our aim on this paper is to identify the exchange rate policies used by Authoritarian governments in Latin America during the 170’s and 180’s. The literature shows that the focus of the exchange rate policy was on inflation control, which was not consistent with the evidence. We show on this paper that these governments aimed at a undervalued currency because of the behavior of the external balance of the countries.

A China como um duplo pólo na economia mundial e a recentralização da economia asiática

China as a double pole in the world economy and the recentralization of the Asian economy. The extraordinary growth of Chinese trade that occurred in the last years changed China’s role on world and regional economy. As a major producer of industrial consumer goods to OCDE countries, China has negatively affected many Asian competitors but as an expansive market China became the main source of growth to Asian countries. This new dimension was achieved after the Asian crisis of 1997 by an economic expansion led by public investment. After considering the Chinese balance of payment position and its industrial strategy this paper investigates this double dimension of China on trade and its influence on Asian countries.

China: crescimento econômico de longo prazo

China: long-run economic growth. The paper aims to understand on theoretical and empirical grounds the main determinants of China´s long run growth. The econometric analysis suggests the exchange rate as the most important variable in explaining China´s economic growth and in a different model specification using growth rates of exports instead of trade openness, the exchange rate remains as the main variable but export performance has almost the same relevance. Exchange rate policy seems to be a direct road to explain economic growth in China and there is no clear sign that China will increase exchange rate flexibility in the same pattern and pace suggested by most trade partners, which cannot be criticized based on China´s own interest in sustaining its export performance and economic growth.

Estratégias periféricas sessenta anos depois do acordo de Bretton Woods

After sixty years, the Bretton Woods Agreement continuous to be a reference for the debates concerning institutional organization of the international monetary system. This paper compares some features of the arrangements that have emerged in that context with the recent wave of institutional reforms in the international financial architecture. We explore some arguments suggesting that, in an instable financial environment, is possible to envisage a strong rationality in strategies for emerging economies associated with a more active capital flows and exchange rate management. Apparently, those strategies are not dissimilar to the ones today's advanced countries had used in Bretton Woods Era.

Para superar el estancamiento económico en México: "nudos críticos" de un proyecto nacional de desarrollo

This article is devoted to analyze changes in economic policy to be adopted by Mexico if a national development project were implemented. Starting from an evaluation of the main economic and political outcomes of Vicente’s Fox administration, the author proposes an alternative development strategy which permits Mexico to overcome economic stagnation. That strategy would be based in recovering the internal market as the dynamical focus of the economy with the purpose of satisfying basic needs of people. To be successful this strategy should to confront the "critical knots" of the Neo-liberal model: to reverse the uneven distribution of income; abandoning the fixing of restrictive monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies; and mobilizing economic surplus by means of a profound revision of debt service schemes. It concludes that to implement a national development project it is required a political and economic strategy to dismantle neoliberalism, which is an antinational structure of power.

Globalização e inconversibilidade monetária

The central hypothesis of this article is that in the context of globalization, monetary inconvertibility is a crucial problem of peripheral countries. It begins with a brief review of the debate from a historical point of view and then stresses the contemporary opposite's views on the fragility of financial system of emerging countries: the original sin and the debt intolerance hypothesis. Despite of supporting the first one, the article goes further and explores the domestic implication of inconvertibility. It criticizes the jurisdicional uncertainty proposition showing that an inherent flaw in the store of value of emerging market currencies, derived from original sin is the main reason for de facto inconvertibility and underdevelopment of domestic financial system of these countries.

Globalization, nation-state and catching up

Globalization and nation-states are not in contradiction, since globalization is the present stage of capitalist development, and the nation-state is the territorial political unit that organizes the space and population in the capitalist system. Since the 1980s, Global Capitalism constitutes the economic system characterized by the opening of all national markets and a fierce competition between nation-states. Developing countries tend to catch up, while rich countries try to neutralize such competitive effort, using globalism as an ideology, and conventional orthodoxy as a strategy. Middle-income countries that are catching up in the realm of globalization are the ones that count with a national development strategy. This is broadly the case of the dynamic Asian countries. In contrast, Latin American countries have no longer their own strategy, and grow less. To add data to the argument, the author conducts an econometric test comparing these two groups of countries, and three variables: the rate of investment, the current account deficit or surplus that would indicate or not a competitive exchange rate, and public deficit.

Uma análise da estratégia nacional de desenvolvimento da Malásia

This paper aims at studying Malaysia's national development strategy in the last three decades. Firstly, we will give emphasis to the country's economic planning development, its medium-term and long-term plans, as well as Mahathir's political influence. Secondly, we will try to identify key elements in the Malaysian growth process, such as its exchange rate and current account policies, the participation of the government in the whole process and matters related to domestic savings and foreign direct investment. We will also talk about the 1997 financial crisis.

Do populismo às bandas cambiais: a evolução da política cambial no Chile de 1970 a 1999

We discuss in this paper the evolution of exchange rate policy in Chile since the seventies, with special attention to overvaluation and undervaluation cycles. Following a recent literature that argues in favor of competitive currencies as part of a development strategy, we argue that the Chilean exchange rate policy in the years that go from 1984 until 1999 were very important to its growth results. Chile even managed to go through the nineties without a major external crisis, especially when compared to its Latin American neighbors. We argue here that the exchange rate crawling band adopted in the middle eighties and nineties was important for its growth strategy.

Macroeconomia estruturalista do desenvolvimento

Structuralist development macroeconomics. This paper presents some basic ideas and models of a structuralist development macroeconomics (the tendencies to the overvaluation of the exchange rate and the tendency of wages to grow below productivity, the critique of growth with foreign savings, and a new model of the Dutch disease) that complement and actualize the thought of the Latin-American structuralist school that developed around ECLAC from the late 1940s to the 1960s. On the other hand, it suggests that a new national development strategy based on the experience of fast growing Asian countries is emerging; and argues that only the countries that adopt such strategy based on growth with domestic savings, fiscal and foreign trade responsibility and a competitive exchange rate will be able to catch up.

An account of new developmentalism and its structuralist macroeconomics

This is a personal account of the definition of "new developmentalism" - a national development strategy alternative to the Washington consensus -, and of a "structuralist development macroeconomics": the sum of models that justifies theoretically that strategy. It is personal account of a collective work involving Keynesian, institutionalist and structuralist economists in Brazil that are forming a new school of thought in Brazil: a Keynesian-structuralist school. It is Keynesian because it emphasizes the demand side or the investment opportunities' side of economic growth. It is institutionalist because institutions obviously matter in achieving growth and stability. It is structuralist because it defines economic development as a structural change from low to high value added per capita industries and because it is based on two structural tendencies that limit investment opportunities: the tendency of wages to grow below productivity and the tendency to the cyclical overvaluation of the exchange rate.

Liberalização financeira, estabilidade macroeconômica e crescimento econômico nos países do BRIC

The objective of this paper is to analyze the relationship between exchange rate regime, capital account convertibility and economic growth in 1990-2007 period within the emerging countries that constitute what has been called BRIC - Brazil, Russia, India and China. Our hypothesis is that economic performance of these countries is the result, at least partially, of the quality of the macroeconomic policy management adopted in each country, in which exchange rate policy, capital account convertibility and the degree of external vulnerability plays a key role.

Structuralist macroeconomics and the new developmentalism

This paper first presents some basic ideas and models of a structuralist development macroeconomics that complements and actualizes the ideas of the structuralist development economics that was dominant between the 1940s and the 1960s. A system of three models focusing on the exchange rate (the tendency to the cyclical overvaluation of the exchange rate, a critique of growth with foreign savings, and new a model of the Dutch disease) shows that it is not just volatile but chronically overvalued, and for that reason it is not just a macroeconomic problem; as a long term disequilibrium, it is in the core of development economics. Second, it summarizes "new developmentalism" - a sum of growth policies based on these models and on the experience of fast-growing Asian countries.

Brazil as an emerging economy: a new economic miracle?

This article shows that abundant resources and blind faith in an optimistic future cannot result in sustainable growth in Brazil. There are great deficiencies in various areas which make sustained high growth rates almost impossible to achieve, such as the low investment ratio, deficiencies in creating human capital, high interest rates leading to an uncompetitive exchange rate and a lack of infrastructural development.

A graphic explanation on how a tax on exports neutralizes the Dutch disease without costs to exporters

The adequate way of neutralizing the Dutch disease is the imposition of a variable tax on the export of the commodity that originates the disease. If such tax is equivalent to the "size" of the Dutch disease, it will shifts to the right its supply curve of the commodity in relation to the exchange rate, giving the existing domestic supply and the international demand, the exchange rate will depreciate at the value of the tax, and the equilibrium exchange rate will move from the "current" to the "industrial" equilibrium.