Building predictive models of soil particle-size distribution

Is it possible to build predictive models (PMs) of soil particle-size distribution (psd) in a region with complex geology and a young and unstable land-surface? The main objective of this study was to answer this question. A set of 339 soil samples from a small slope catchment in Southern Brazil was used to build PMs of psd in the surface soil layer. Multiple linear regression models were constructed using terrain attributes (elevation, slope, catchment area, convergence index, and topographic wetness index). The PMs explained more than half of the data variance. This performance is similar to (or even better than) that of the conventional soil mapping approach. For some size fractions, the PM performance can reach 70 %. Largest uncertainties were observed in geologically more complex areas. Therefore, significant improvements in the predictions can only be achieved if accurate geological data is made available. Meanwhile, PMs built on terrain attributes are efficient in predicting the particle-size distribution (psd) of soils in regions of complex geology.

Positive predictive values of Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS®) categories 3, 4 and 5 in breast lesions submitted to percutaneous biopsy

Objective To evaluate the BI-RADS as a predictive factor of suspicion for malignancy in breast lesions by correlating radiological with histological results and calculating the positive predictive value for categories 3, 4 and 5 in a breast cancer reference center in the city of São Paulo. Materials and Methods Retrospective, analytical and cross-sectional study including 725 patients with mammographic and/or sonographic findings classified as BI-RADS categories 3, 4 and 5 who were referred to the authors' institution to undergo percutaneous biopsy. The tests results were reviewed and the positive predictive value was calculated by means of a specific mathematical equation. Results Positive predictive values found for categories 3, 4 and 5 were respectively the following: 0.74%, 33.08% and 92.95%, for cases submitted to ultrasound-guided biopsy, and 0.00%, 14.90% and 100% for cases submitted to stereotactic biopsy. Conclusion The present study demonstrated high suspicion for malignancy in lesions classified as category 5 and low risk for category 3. As regards category 4, the need for systematic biopsies was observed.

Spectroscopic analysis of C80 doping with group III and group V elements using semiempirical PM3 molecular modelling technique

Semiempirical calculations at the level of PM3 of theory were carried out to study the structural and electronic properties of C80 and some of its doped derivatives with the elements of group III and V at the level of PM3 of theory. We have selected these elements to be substituted in the fullerene-C80 cage in order to show the effect of such structural change on the electronic properties of the molecules studied. The theoretical IR spectra, some of physical and chemical properties of the molecules studied are obtained and discussed.

Spatio-temporal modelling of the duration of the cotton cycle in the State Of Goiás, Brazil

The objective of this work was to develop and validate a mathematical model to estimate the duration of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L. r. latifolium hutch) cycle in the State of Goiás, Brazil, by applying the method of growing degree-days (GD), and considering, simultaneously, its time-space variation. The model was developed as a linear combination of elevation, latitude, longitude, and Fourier series of time variation. The model parameters were adjusted by using multiple-linear regression to the observed GD accumulated with air temperature in the range of 15°C to 40°C. The minimum and maximum temperature records used to calculate the GD were obtained from 21 meteorological stations, considering data varying from 8 to 20 years of observation. The coefficient of determination, resulting from the comparison between the estimated and calculated GD along the year was 0.84. Model validation was done by comparing estimated and measured crop cycle in the period from cotton germination to the stage when 90 percent of bolls were opened in commercial crop fields. Comparative results showed that the model performed very well, as indicated by the Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.90 and Willmott agreement index of 0.94, resulting in a performance index of 0.85.

Uncertainties of the 137Cs technique for validation of soil redistribution modelling in a semiarid meso-scale watershed

Scarcity of long-term series of sediment-related variables has led watershed managers to apply mathematical models to simulate sediment fluxes. Due to the high efforts for installation and maintenance of sedimentological gauges, tracers have been pointed out as an alternative to validate soil redistribution modelling. In this study, the 137Cs technique was used to assess the WASA-SED model performance at the Benguê watershed (933 km²), in the Brazilian semiarid. Qualitatively, good agreement was found among the 137Cs technique and the WASA-SED model results. Nonetheless, quantitatively great differences, up to two orders of magnitude, were found between the two methods. Among the uncertainties inherent to the 137Cs technique, definition of the reference inventory seems to be a major source of imprecision. In addition, estimations of water and sediment fluxes with mathematical models usually also present high uncertainty, contributing to the quantitative differences of the soil redistribution estimates with the two methods.

Modelling head loss along emitting pipes using dimensional analysis

Local head losses must be considered in estimating properly the maximum length of drip irrigation laterals. The aim of this work was to develop a model based on dimensional analysis for calculating head loss along laterals accounting for in-line drippers. Several measurements were performed with 12 models of emitters to obtain the experimental data required for developing and assessing the model. Based on the Camargo & Sentelhas coefficient, the model presented an excellent result in terms of precision and accuracy on estimating head loss. The deviation between estimated and observed values of head loss increased according to the head loss and the maximum deviation reached 0.17 m. The maximum relative error was 33.75% and only 15% of the data set presented relative errors higher than 20%. Neglecting local head losses incurred a higher than estimated maximum lateral length of 19.48% for pressure-compensating drippers and 16.48% for non pressure-compensating drippers.

Predictive factors for voiding dysfunction after transobturator slings

PURPOSE: To identify the predictive factors for voiding dysfunction after transobturator slings. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the records of all patients who underwent a transobturator sling between March 2003 and December 2008. A total of 514 women had available data with at least a six-week follow-up. Patients' demographics, preoperative symptoms, urodynamic testing including multichannel voiding studies and surgical variables were tabulated. Voiding dysfunction was defined by a catheterized or ultrasonographic postvoid residual greater than 100 cc (≥six weeks after the procedure) associated with any complaints of abnormal voiding. Univariate logistic regression analysis was performed with respect to postoperative voiding dysfunction. RESULTS: The patient population had a mean age of 58.5±12.9 years. Thirty-three out of 514 patients (6.4%) had postoperative voiding dysfunction according to our definition, and 4 (0.78%) required sling transection. No differences were observed between normal and dysfunctional voiders in age, associated prolapse surgery, preoperative postvoid residual, preoperative urinary flow rate, prior pelvic surgery, and menopausal status. Valsalva efforts during the preoperative pressure flow study was the only predictive factor for postoperative voiding dysfunction, 72.4% dysfunctional versus 27.6% normal (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Preoperative Valsalva maneuver during the micturition could identify those at risk for voiding dysfunction after transobturator sling, and it should be noted during preoperative counseling.

Predictive Capability of HPV and Pap Tests in Screening for Cervical Cancer over a Three-Year Follow-up

Purpose To compare the predictive capability of HPV and Pap smear tests for screening pre-cancerous lesions of the cervix over a three-year follow-up, in a population of users of the Brazilian National Health System (SUS). Methods This is a retrospective cohort study of 2,032 women with satisfactory results for Pap smear and HPV tests using second-generation hybrid capture,made in a previous study. We followed them for 36 months with data obtained from medical records, the Cervix Cancer Information System (SISCOLO), and the Mortality Information System (SIM). The outcome was a histological diagnosis of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or more advanced lesions (CIN2ş). We constructed progression curves of the baseline test results for the period, using the Kaplan-Meier method, and estimated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and positive and negative likelihood ratios for each test. Results A total of 1,440 women had at least one test during follow-up. Progression curves of the baseline test results indicated differences in capability to detect CIN2ş (p < 0.001) with significantly greater capability when both tests were abnormal, followed by only a positive HPV test. The HPV test was more sensitive than the Pap smear (88.7% and 73.6%, respectively; p < 0.05) and had a better negative likelihood ratio (0.13 and 0.30, respectively). Specificity and positive likelihood ratio of the tests were similar. Conclusions These findings corroborate the importance of HPV test as a primary cervical cancer screening.

Kinematic analysis and modelling of biped locomotion systems

This paper presents the kinematic study of robotic biped locomotion systems. The main purpose is to determine the kinematic characteristics and the system performance during walking. For that objective, the prescribed motion of the biped is completely characterised in terms of five locomotion variables: step length, hip height, maximum hip ripple, maximum foot clearance and link lengths. In this work, we propose four methods to quantitatively measure the performance of the walking robot: energy analysis, perturbation analysis, lowpass frequency response and locomobility measure. These performance measures are discussed and compared in determining the robustness and effectiveness of the resulting locomotion.

Advances in modelling of mechatronic systems: the toolset FASIM_C++ for the simulation of vehicle dynamics

The increasing complexity of controller systems, applied in modern passenger cars, requires adequate simulation tools. The toolset FASIM_C++, described in the following, uses complex vehicle models in three-dimensional vehicle dynamics simulation. The structure of the implemented dynamic models and the generation of the equations of motion applying the method of kinematic differentials is explained briefly. After a short introduction in methods of event handling, several vehicle models and applications like controller development, roll-over simulation and real-time-simulation are explained. Finally some simulation results are presented.

Modelling of mechanical properties of CRFC composites under flexure loading

Carbon Fibre Reinforced Carbon (CFRC) Composites are increasing their applications due to their high strength and Young’s Modulus at high temperatures in inert atmosphere. Although much work has been done on processing and structure and properties relationship, few studies have addressed the modelling of mechanical properties. This work is divided in two parts. In the first part, a modelling of mechanical properties was carried out for two bi-directional composites using a model based on the Bernoulli-Euler theory for symmetric laminated beams. In the second part, acoustic emission (AE) was used as an auxiliary technique for monitoring the failure process of the composites. Differences in fracture behaviour are reflected in patterns of AE.

Accuracy of modelling and identification of malfunctions in rotor systems: experimental results

The accuracy of modelling of rotor systems composed of rotors, oil film bearings and a flexible foundation, is evaluated and discussed in this paper. The model validation of different models has been done by comparing experimental results with numerical results by means. The experimental data have been obtained with a fully instrumented four oil film bearing, two shafts test rig. The fault models are then used in the frame of a model based malfunction identification procedure, based on a least square fitting approach applied in the frequency domain. The capability of distinguishing different malfunctions has been investigated, even if they can create similar effects (such as unbalance, rotor bow, coupling misalignment and others) from shaft vibrations measured in correspondence of the bearings.

Fluid dynamic modelling and simulation of circulating fluidized bed reactors: importance of the interface turbulence transfer

The main objective of this work is to analyze the importance of the gas-solid interface transfer of the kinetic energy of the turbulent motion on the accuracy of prediction of the fluid dynamic of Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) reactors. CFB reactors are used in a variety of industrial applications related to combustion, incineration and catalytic cracking. In this work a two-dimensional fluid dynamic model for gas-particle flow has been used to compute the porosity, the pressure, and the velocity fields of both phases in 2-D axisymmetrical cylindrical co-ordinates. The fluid dynamic model is based on the two fluid model approach in which both phases are considered to be continuous and fully interpenetrating. CFB processes are essentially turbulent. The model of effective stress on each phase is that of a Newtonian fluid, where the effective gas viscosity was calculated from the standard k-epsilon turbulence model and the transport coefficients of the particulate phase were calculated from the kinetic theory of granular flow (KTGF). This work shows that the turbulence transfer between the phases is very important for a better representation of the fluid dynamics of CFB reactors, especially for systems with internal recirculation and high gradients of particle concentration. Two systems with different characteristics were analyzed. The results were compared with experimental data available in the literature. The results were obtained by using a computer code developed by the authors. The finite volume method with collocated grid, the hybrid interpolation scheme, the false time step strategy and SIMPLEC (Semi-Implicit Method for Pressure Linked Equations - Consistent) algorithm were used to obtain the numerical solution.

Gas-solid two-phase flow in the riser of circulating fluidized beds: mathematical modelling and numerical simulation

A mathematical model is developed for gas-solids flows in circulating fluidized beds. An Eulerian formulation is followed based on the two-fluids model approach where both the fluid and the particulate phases are treated as a continuum. The physical modelling is discussed, including the formulation of boundary conditions and the description of the numerical methodology. Results of numerical simulation are presented and discussed. The model is validated through comparison to experiment, and simulation is performed to investigate the effects on the flow hydrodynamics of the solids viscosity.