Performance of Surgical Risk Scores to Predict Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

AbstractBackground:Predicting mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) remains a challenge.Objectives:To evaluate the performance of 5 risk scores for cardiac surgery in predicting the 30-day mortality among patients of the Brazilian Registry of TAVI.Methods:The Brazilian Multicenter Registry prospectively enrolled 418 patients undergoing TAVI in 18 centers between 2008 and 2013. The 30-day mortality risk was calculated using the following surgical scores: the logistic EuroSCORE I (ESI), EuroSCORE II (ESII), Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score, Ambler score (AS) and Guaragna score (GS). The performance of the risk scores was evaluated in terms of their calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test) and discrimination [area under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (AUC)].Results:The mean age was 81.5 ± 7.7 years. The CoreValve (Medtronic) was used in 86.1% of the cohort, and the transfemoral approach was used in 96.2%. The observed 30-day mortality was 9.1%. The 30-day mortality predicted by the scores was as follows: ESI, 20.2 ± 13.8%; ESII, 6.5 ± 13.8%; STS score, 14.7 ± 4.4%; AS, 7.0 ± 3.8%; GS, 17.3 ± 10.8%. Using AUC, none of the tested scores could accurately predict the 30-day mortality. AUC for the scores was as follows: 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49 to 0.68, p = 0.09] for ESI; 0.54 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64, p = 0.42) for ESII; 0.57 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.67, p = 0.16) for AS; 0.48 (95% IC: 0.38 to 0.57, p = 0.68) for STS score; and 0.52 (95% CI: 0.42 to 0.62, p = 0.64) for GS. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test indicated acceptable calibration for all scores (p > 0.05).Conclusions:In this real world Brazilian registry, the surgical risk scores were inaccurate in predicting mortality after TAVI. Risk models specifically developed for TAVI are required.

Incidence and Predictors of Cardiovascular Complications and Death after Vascular Surgery

AbstractBackground:Patients undergoing arterial vascular surgery are considered at increased risk for post-operative complications.Objective:To assess the incidence and predictors of complications and death, as well as the performance of two models of risk stratification, in vascular surgery.Methods:This study determined the incidence of cardiovascular complications and deaths within 30 days from surgery in adults. Univariate comparison and logistic regression assessed the risk factors associated with the outcomes, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve assessed the discriminatory capacity of the revised cardiac risk index (RCRI) and vascular study group of New England cardiac risk index (VSG-CRI).Results:141 patients (mean age, 66 years; 65% men) underwent the following surgeries: carotid (15); lower limbs (65); abdominal aorta (56); and others (5). Cardiovascular complications and death occurred within 30 days in 28 (19.9%) and 20 (14.2%) patients, respectively. The risk predictors were: age, obesity, stroke, poor functional capacity, altered scintigraphy, surgery of the aorta, and troponin change. The scores RCRI and VSG-CRI had area under the curve of 0.635 and 0.639 for early cardiovascular complications, and 0.562 and 0.610 for death in 30 days.Conclusion:In this small and selected group of patients undergoing arterial vascular surgery, the incidence of adverse events was elevated. The risk assessment indices RCRI and VSG-CRI did not perform well for complications within 30 days.

New sonographic measures of peripheral nerves: a tool for the diagnosis of peripheral nerve involvement in leprosy

To evaluate ultrasonographic (US) cross-sectional areas (CSAs) of peripheral nerves, indexes of the differences between CSAs at the same point (∆CSAs) and between tunnel (T) and pre-tunnel (PT) ulnar CSAs (∆TPTs) in leprosy patients (LPs) and healthy volunteers (HVs). Seventy-seven LPs and 49 HVs underwent bilateral US at PT and T ulnar points, as well as along the median (M) and common fibular (CF) nerves, to calculate the CSAs, ∆CSAs and ∆TPTs. The CSA values in HVs were lower than those in LPs (p < 0.0001) at the PT (5.67/9.78 mm2) and T (6.50/10.94 mm2) points, as well as at the M (5.85/8.48 mm2) and CF (8.17/14.14 mm2) nerves. The optimum CSA- receiver operating characteristic (ROC) points and sensitivities/specificities were, respectively, 6.85 mm2 and 68-85% for the PT point, 7.35 mm2 and 71-78% for the T point, 6.75 mm2 and 62-75% for the M nerve and 9.55 mm2 and 81-72% for the CF nerve. The ∆CSAs of the LPs were greater than those of the HVs at the PT point (4.02/0.85; p = 0.007), T point (3.71/0.98; p = 0.0005) and CF nerve (2.93/1.14; p = 0.015), with no difference found for the M nerve (1.41/0.95; p = 0.17). The optimum ∆CSA-ROC points, sensitivities, specificities and p-values were, respectively, 1.35, 49%, 80% and 0.003 at the PT point, 1.55, 55-85% and 0.0006 at the T point, 0.70, 58-50% and 0.73 for the M nerve and 1.25, 54-67% and 0.022 for the CF nerve. The ∆TPT in the LPs was greater than that in the HVs (4.43/1.44; p <0.0001). The optimum ∆TPT-ROC point was 2.65 (90% sensitivity/41% specificity, p < 0.0001). The ROC analysis of CSAs showed the highest specificity and sensitivity at the PT point and CF nerve, respectively. The PT and T ∆CSAs had high specificities (> 80%) and ∆TPT had the highest specificity (> 90%). New sonographic peripheral nerve measurements (∆CSAs and ∆TPT) provide an important methodological improvement in the detection of leprosy neuropathy.

Soil structure transformations from ferralic to nitic horizons on a toposequence in southeastern Brazil

The soil structure transformation from ferralic to nitic horizons was studied in a toposequence on quaternary red clayey sediments and diabase in Piracicaba (SP), Brazil. Morphological and micromorphological studies, image analysis, soil water characteristic curves and monitoring of (total) soil water potential head were used. The presence of polyconcave vughs, clayskins and planar voids shows that the vertical and lateral transition and structural transformation from ferralic to nitic horizons is given by the coalescence of the microaggregates, probably due to tensions created in a drier period in the past. Changes to a more humid climate with a defined dry season and alternate drying and wetting cycles resulted in the fissuration of the previously coalesced material, forming polyhedral aggregates and microaggregates. Simultaneously, clay illuviation filled the voids and together with the compacting action of the biological activity of these soils contributed to the coalescence of microaggregates.

Caracterização de lesões intersticiais de pulmão em radiograma de tórax utilizando análise local de textura

OBJETIVO: Caracterizar lesões intersticiais em radiografias frontais de tórax, com base na análise de atributos estatísticos de textura, os quais permitem detectar sinais de anormalidades com natureza difusa. MATERIAIS E MÉTODOS: O esquema começa com a segmentação semi-automática dos campos pulmonares, sendo o contorno externo marcado manualmente, com posterior divisão automática de cada pulmão em seis regiões. O banco de imagens utilizado neste trabalho é composto por 482 regiões obtidas de exames contendo lesões e 324 regiões obtidas de exames normais. Os atributos de textura são extraídos automaticamente de cada uma dessas regiões e uma seleção das melhores combinações de atributos é feita através da distância Jeffries-Matusita. A classificação das regiões em normal ou suspeita é feita pela comparação com os k vizinhos mais próximos e o treinamento do classificador é baseado na técnica de treino e teste "half-half" e correlação cruzada. RESULTADOS: Os resultados obtidos foram analisados através do valor da área sob a curva ROC ("receiver operating characteristic"), a qual indica um sistema perfeito para uma área igual a 1. Os resultados forneceram uma área sob a curva ROC (A Z) igual a 0,887, com valores de sensibilidade igual a 0,804 e especificidade igual a 0,793. CONCLUSÃO: Os resultados indicam que o sistema de caracterização baseado em atributos de textura possui bom potencial para o auxílio ao diagnóstico de lesões intersticiais de pulmão.

Screening of breast lesions: a comparative study between mammography, B-mode ultrasonography, sonoelastography and histological results

Objective To compare the capacity of mammography, sonoelastography, B-mode ultrasonography and histological analysis to differentiate benign from malignant breast lesions. Materials and Methods A total of 12 histopathologically confirmed breast lesions were documented. The lesions were assessed by means of mammography, B-mode ultrasonography and sonoelastography, and histopathological analysis was utilized as a gold standard. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the mentioned techniques. Results Sensitivity and specificity in the differentiation between benign and malignant lesions were respectively 100% and 50% for mammography, 100% and 71% for B-mode ultrasonography, and 67% and 83% for sonoelastography. The area under the ROC curve was calculated for the three imaging modalities and corresponded to 0.792 for mammography, 0.847 for B-mode ultrasonography, and 0.806 for sonoelastography. Conclusion Sonoelastography demonstrated higher specificity and lower sensitivity as compared with mammography and B-mode ultrasonography. On the other hand, B-mode ultrasonography had the largest area under the ROC curve. Sonoelastography has demonstrated to be a promising technique to detect and evaluate breast lesions, and could potentially reduce the number of unnecessary biopsies.

Accuracy of computer-aided ultrasound as compared with magnetic resonance imaging in the evaluation of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in obese and eutrophic adolescents

AbstractObjective:To compare the accuracy of computer-aided ultrasound (US) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) by means of hepatorenal gradient analysis in the evaluation of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in adolescents.Materials and Methods:This prospective, cross-sectional study evaluated 50 adolescents (aged 11–17 years), including 24 obese and 26 eutrophic individuals. All adolescents underwent computer-aided US, MRI, laboratory tests, and anthropometric evaluation. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and accuracy were evaluated for both imaging methods, with subsequent generation of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calculation of the area under the ROC curve to determine the most appropriate cutoff point for the hepatorenal gradient in order to predict the degree of steatosis, utilizing MRI results as the gold-standard.Results:The obese group included 29.2% girls and 70.8% boys, and the eutrophic group, 69.2% girls and 30.8% boys. The prevalence of NAFLD corresponded to 19.2% for the eutrophic group and 83% for the obese group. The ROC curve generated for the hepatorenal gradient with a cutoff point of 13 presented 100% sensitivity and 100% specificity. As the same cutoff point was considered for the eutrophic group, false-positive results were observed in 9.5% of cases (90.5% specificity) and false-negative results in 0% (100% sensitivity).Conclusion:Computer-aided US with hepatorenal gradient calculation is a simple and noninvasive technique for semiquantitative evaluation of hepatic echogenicity and could be useful in the follow-up of adolescents with NAFLD, population screening for this disease as well as for clinical studies.

Espessura do músculo adutor do polegar: um método rápido e confiável na avaliação nutricional de pacientes cirúrgicos

OBJETIVO: Determinar se a medida da espessura do músculo adutor do polegar é confiável para avaliação nutricional de pacientes cirúrgicos e se correlaciona bem com outros parâmetros antropométricos, bioquímicos e clínicos. MÉTODOS: Estudo de corte transversal, com avaliação de 87 pacientes candidatos à procedimento cirúrgico de grande porte no trato gastrointestinal. Eles foram submetidos à avaliação nutricional através da avaliação subjetiva global, antropometria (circunferência do braço, prega cutânea triciptal, e circunferência muscular do braço), albumina sérica, linfocitometria e pela medida da espessura do músculo adutor do polegar em ambas as mãos. RESULTADOS: A média da espessura da mão dominante (direita) foi de 12,64 ± 3,19 mm e da mão não dominante 12,23 ± 2,9 mm. Para desnutrição, a sensibilidade da espessura do músculo adutor do polegar direita foi de 72,37% e da esquerda de 77,33% para os pontos de cortes encontrados com a curva Receiver Operating Characteristic (13,4 e 13,1 mm respectivamente). Para ambas as mãos a especificidade foi de 100%. Encontrou-se correlação significativa (p<0,01) da espessura do músculo adutor do polegar com todas as outras técnicas antropométricas de avaliação nutricional. Os seus valores médios nos pacientes eutróficos segundo a avaliação subjetiva global foram significativamente maiores (P<0.001) que dos desnutridos leves, e estes também maiores (P<0,05) que os desnutridos graves (avaliação subjetiva global-C). CONCLUSÃO: a espessura do músculo adutor do polegar é um método de fácil execução, baixo custo, confiável e transmite segurança na avaliação do estado nutricional, podendo ser usado na prática clínica em pacientes cirúrgicos.

Emprego do escore MELD para a predição da sobrevivência pós-transplante hepático

OBJETIVO: Analisar a acurácia geral do escore MELD pré-operatório para a predição da sobrevivência pós-transplante hepático (TH) e explorar fatores preditivos da sobrevivência de médio prazo (24 meses). MÉTODOS: Estudo de corte transversal incluindo pacientes transplantados pelo Serviço de Cirurgia Geral e Transplante Hepático do Hospital Universitário Oswaldo Cruz, Universidade de Pernambuco, entre 15 de julho de 2003 e 14 de julho de 2009. Utilizou-se análise da área sob curva ROC (receiver operating characteristic) como medida-resumo do desempenho do escore MELD e se exploraram fatores preditivos da sobrevivência de médio prazo utilizando análise uni e multivariada. RESULTADOS: A sobrevivência cumulativa de três, seis, 12 e 24 meses dos 208 pacientes estudados foi 85,1%, 79,3%, 74,5% e 71,1%, respectivamente. O escore MELD pré-operatório apresentou baixo poder discriminatório para a predição da sobrevivência pós-TH. Por análise univariada, identificaram-se a transfusão intraoperatória de hemácias (p<0,001) e plaquetas (p=0,004) e o tipo de anastomose venosa hepatocaval (p=0,008) como significativamente relacionados à sobrevivência de médio prazo dos pacientes estudados. No entanto, por análise multivariada, observou-se que apenas a transfusão de hemácias foi um fator preditivo independente deste desfecho. CONCLUSÃO: O escore MELD apresentou baixa acurácia geral para a predição da sobrevivência pós-transplante dos pacientes estudados, entre os quais, apenas a transfusão intraoperatória de hemácias foi identificada como fator preditivo independente da sobrevivência de médio prazo após o TH.

Avaliação do Risco de Parto Prematuro: Teste da Fibronectina Fetal e Medida do Colo Uterino

Objetivo: avaliar o risco de parto prematuro em gestantes com antecedentes de parto pré-termo espontâneo por meio do teste da fibronectina fetal e da medida do colo uterino pela ultra-sonografia transvaginal. Métodos: foram relacionadas 107 gestantes na 24ª, 28ª e 32ª semana de gestação para realização do teste da fibronectina fetal no conteúdo cérvico- vaginal. No mesmo período, o comprimento do colo uterino foi medido, entre o orifício interno e externo, pela ultra-sonografia transvaginal. Consideramos o colo curto quando a medida da cérvice foi menor ou igual ao ponto de corte estabelecido pela curva ROC ("receiver-operating characteristic") para predição do parto prematuro. Comparamos o resultado dos exames com a ocorrência do parto antes de 34 e 37 semanas de gestação. Resultados: a incidência do parto prematuro foi de 37,4% (40/107). O melhor ponto de corte do comprimento do colo uterino indicado pela curva ROC para maximizar sensibilidade e especificidade foi 30 mm para 24 e 28 semanas de gestação e 25 mm para 32 semanas. O teste positivo da fibronectina fetal teve um risco relativo (RR) significante apenas na 28ª semana (RR: 1,77; intervalo de confiança (IC) 95%: 1,10-2,84) para a ocorrência do parto antes de 37 semanas. O colo curto mostrou um RR significativo para ocorrência do parto antes de 37 semanas, na 24ª, 28ª e 32ª semana. O RR foi mais elevado quando o colo curto esteve presente na 24ª semana para ocorrência do parto antes de 34 semanas (RR: 4,42; IC 95%: 1,25-15,56). Conclusão: em pacientes com antecedentes de prematuridade espontânea, a medida do comprimento do colo uterino por meio da ultra-sonografia transvaginal é melhor que o teste da fibronectina fetal para avaliar o risco de parto prematuro.

Accuracy of sonography and hysteroscopy in the diagnosis of premalignant and malignant polyps in postmenopausal women

PURPOSE: To evaluate the accuracy of sonographic endometrial thickness and hysteroscopic characteristics in predicting malignancy in postmenopausal women undergoing surgical resection of endometrial polyps. METHODS: Five hundred twenty-one (521) postmenopausal women undergoing hysteroscopic resection of endometrial polyps between January 1998 and December 2008 were studied. For each value of sonographic endometrial thickness and polyp size on hysteroscopy, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated in relation to the histologic diagnosis of malignancy. The best values of sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of malignancy were determined by the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: Histologic diagnosis identified the presence of premalignancy or malignancy in 4.1% of cases. Sonographic measurement revealed a greater endometrial thickness in cases of malignant polyps when compared to benign and premalignant polyps. On surgical hysteroscopy, malignant endometrial polyps were also larger. An endometrial thickness of 13 mm showed a sensitivity of 69.6%, specificity of 68.5%, PPV of 9.3%, and NPV of 98% in predicting malignancy in endometrial polyps. Polyp measurement by hysteroscopy showed that for polyps 30 mm in size, the sensitivity was 47.8%, specificity was 66.1%, PPV was 6.1%, and NPV was 96.5% for predicting cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Sonographic endometrial thickness showed a higher level of accuracy than hysteroscopic measurement in predicting malignancy in endometrial polyps. Despite this, both techniques showed low accuracy for predicting malignancy in endometrial polyps in postmenopausal women. In suspected cases, histologic evaluation is necessary to exclude malignancy.

Methodology for Photovoltaic Modules Characterization and Shading Effects Analysis

This work describes the methodology, basic procedures and instrumental employed by the Solar Energy Laboratory at Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul for the determination of current-voltage characteristic curves of photovoltaic modules. According to this methodology, I-V characteristic curves were acquired for several modules under diverse conditions. The main electrical parameters were determined and the temperature and irradiance influence on photovoltaic modules performance was quantified. It was observed that most of the tested modules presented output power values considerably lower than those specified by the manufacturers. The described hardware allows the testing of modules with open-circuit voltage up to 50 V and short-circuit current up to 8 A.

Fuzzy expert system in the prediction of neonatal resuscitation

In view of the importance of anticipating the occurrence of critical situations in medicine, we propose the use of a fuzzy expert system to predict the need for advanced neonatal resuscitation efforts in the delivery room. This system relates the maternal medical, obstetric and neonatal characteristics to the clinical conditions of the newborn, providing a risk measurement of need of advanced neonatal resuscitation measures. It is structured as a fuzzy composition developed on the basis of the subjective perception of danger of nine neonatologists facing 61 antenatal and intrapartum clinical situations which provide a degree of association with the risk of occurrence of perinatal asphyxia. The resulting relational matrix describes the association between clinical factors and risk of perinatal asphyxia. Analyzing the inputs of the presence or absence of all 61 clinical factors, the system returns the rate of risk of perinatal asphyxia as output. A prospectively collected series of 304 cases of perinatal care was analyzed to ascertain system performance. The fuzzy expert system presented a sensitivity of 76.5% and specificity of 94.8% in the identification of the need for advanced neonatal resuscitation measures, considering a cut-off value of 5 on a scale ranging from 0 to 10. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.93. The identification of risk situations plays an important role in the planning of health care. These preliminary results encourage us to develop further studies and to refine this model, which is intended to implement an auxiliary system able to help health care staff to make decisions in perinatal care.

Estradiol and testosterone concentrations in follicular fluid as criteria to discriminate between mature and immature oocytes

The objective of the present study was to examine the association between follicular fluid (FF) steroid concentration and oocyte maturity and fertilization rates. Seventeen infertile patients were submitted to ovulation induction with urinary human follicle-stimulating hormone, human menopausal gonadotropin and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG). A total of 107 follicles were aspirated after hCG administration, the oocytes were analyzed for maturity and 81 of them were incubated and inseminated in vitro. Progesterone, estradiol (E2), estrone, androstenedione, and testosterone were measured in the FF. E2 and testosterone levels were significantly higher in FF containing immature oocytes (median = 618.2 and 16 ng/ml, respectively) than in FF containing mature oocytes (median = 368 and 5.7 ng/ml, respectively; P < 0.05). Progesterone, androstenedione and estrone levels were not significantly different between mature and immature oocytes. The application of the receiver-operating characteristic curve statistical approach to determine the best cut-off point for the discrimination between mature and immature oocytes indicated levels of 505.8 ng/ml for E2 (81.0% sensitivity and 81.8% specificity) and of 10.4 ng/ml for testosterone (90.9% sensitivity and 82.4% specificity). Follicular diameter was associated negatively with E2 and testosterone levels in FF. There was a significant increase in progesterone/testosterone, progesterone/E2 and E2/testosterone ratios in FF containing mature oocytes, suggesting a reduction in conversion of C21 to C19, but not in aromatase activity. The overall fertility rate was 61% but there was no correlation between the steroid levels or their ratios and the fertilization rates. E2 and testosterone levels in FF may be used as a predictive parameter of oocyte maturity, but not for the in vitro fertilization rate.

Laminin concentration in ascites of patients with hepatic cirrhosis and peritoneal carcinomatosis

Laminin levels in ascitic fluid have been proposed as a marker for neoplastic ascites. We compared the concentration of laminin in serum and in ascitic fluid from patients with hepatic cirrhosis and peritoneal carcinomatosis and assessed the diagnostic value of serum laminin levels in differentiating neoplastic from benign ascites. Laminin concentrations were determined by ELISA with antibodies against laminin extracted from the human placenta, in patients with ascites due to peritoneal carcinomatosis (N = 20) and hepatic cirrhosis (N = 33). Patients with infected or hemorrhagic ascites were excluded. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the sensitivity and specificity of serum laminin for the diagnosis of neoplastic ascites. When compared to the group with cirrhosis, the carcinomatosis group presented significantly higher mean laminin levels in serum (3.3 ± 0.5 vs 2.1 ± 0.4 µg/ml, mean ± SD, P < 0.05) and ascites (2.8 ± 0.5 vs 1.6 ± 0.4 µg/ml, P < 0.05). Although laminin concentration was higher in serum than in ascites, the laminin serum/ascites ratio and serum-ascites gradient did not differ between the studied groups. A significant correlation (r = 0.93, P < 0.0001) was observed between the serum and ascites laminin values. Serum laminin levels >2.25 µg/ml showed 100% sensitivity and 73% specificity for the diagnosis of neoplastic ascites. Serum concentration seems to be the main determinant of laminin levels in ascitic fluid and its values can be used as a diagnostic parameter in the study of neoplastic ascites.