Geographic weighted regression: applicability to epidemiological studies of leprosy

Abstract: INTRODUCTION: Geographic information systems (GIS) enable public health data to be analyzed in terms of geographical variability and the relationship between risk factors and diseases. This study discusses the application of the geographic weighted regression (GWR) model to health data to improve the understanding of spatially varying social and clinical factors that potentially impact leprosy prevalence. METHODS: This ecological study used data from leprosy case records from 1998-2006, aggregated by neighborhood in the Duque de Caxias municipality in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In the GWR model, the associations between the log of the leprosy detection rate and social and clinical factors were analyzed. RESULTS: Maps of the estimated coefficients by neighborhood confirmed the heterogeneous spatial relationships between the leprosy detection rates and the predictors. The proportion of households with piped water was associated with higher detection rates, mainly in the northeast of the municipality. Indeterminate forms were strongly associated with higher detections rates in the south, where access to health services was more established. CONCLUSIONS: GWR proved a useful tool for epidemiological analysis of leprosy in a local area, such as Duque de Caxias. Epidemiological analysis using the maps of the GWR model offered the advantage of visualizing the problem in sub-regions and identifying any spatial dependence in the local study area.

Distribution of Atta (Hymenoptera - Formicidae) in "terra-firme" rain forest of Central Amazonia: density, species composition and preliminary results on effects of forest fragmentation

One hundred and fourteen hectares of a "terra-fiirme" rain forest 70 km north of Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil, were surveyed for leaf-cutting ant colonies (Atta spp). One half of this area was in isolated forest fragments (surrounded by pastures or second growth) of two sizes: 1 and 10 ha. The other half was in non-isolated fragments (connected to a large parch of forest) of the same sizes. Only two species occured in this forest: Atta sexdens sexdens L. and A. cepfhalotes L. The first was the most abundant species with a mean density of 0.35 colonies per ha. The mean density of A. cephalotes colonies was 0.03 per ha. The density of colonies was not significantly different between the isolated fragments and the continuous forest. Furthermore, the species composition did not change with isolation. However, pre-isolation data and long term monitoring are necessary to conclude that the isolation of a forest fragment has no effect upon Atta colonies. The non-uniform spatial distribution of Atta colonics within the "terra-firme" forest must be taken into account when selecting conservation areas in the Amazon, in order to preserve this important group of ants together with their native habitat.

Macroecologia de carnívoros do Novo Mundo (Mammalia): envelopes de restrição e análise de padrões filogenéticos

The relationship between body size and geographic range was analyzed for 70 species of terrestrial Carnivora ("fissipeds") of the New World, after the control of phylogenetic patterns in the data using phylogenetic eigenvector regression. The analysis from EcoSim software showed that the variables are related as a triangular envelope. Phylogenetic patterns in data were detected by means of phylogenetic correlograms, and 200 simulations of the phenotypic evolution were also performed over the phylogeny. For body size, the simulations suggested a non-linear relationship for the evolution of this character along the phylogeny. For geographic range size, the correlogram showed no phylogenetic patterns. A phylogenetic eigenvector regression was performed on original data and on data simulated under Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Since both characters did not evolve under a simple Brownian motion process, the Type I errors should be around 10%, compatible with other methods to analyze correlated evolution. The significant correlation of the original data (r = 0.38; P < 0.05), as well as the triangular envelope, then indicate ecological and adaptive processes connecting the two variables, such as those proposed in minimum viable population models.

Container productivity, daily survival rates and dispersal of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in a high income dengue epidemic neighbourhood of Rio de Janeiro: presumed influence of differential urban structure on mosquito biology

Different urban structures might affect the life history parameters of Aedes aegypti and, consequently, dengue transmission. Container productivity, probability of daily survival (PDS) and dispersal rates were estimated for mosquito populations in a high income neighbourhood of Rio de Janeiro. Results were contrasted with those previously found in a suburban district, as well as those recorded in a slum. After inspecting 1,041 premises, domestic drains and discarded plastic pots were identified as the most productive containers, collectively holding up to 80% of the total pupae. In addition, three cohorts of dust-marked Ae. aegypti females were released and recaptured daily using BGS-Traps, sticky ovitraps and backpack aspirators in 50 randomly selected houses; recapture rate ranged from 5-12.2% within cohorts. PDS was determined by two models and ranged from 0.607-0.704 (exponential model) and 0.659-0.721 (non-linear model), respectively. Mean distance travelled varied from 57-122 m, with a maximum dispersal of 263 m. Overall, lower infestation indexes and adult female survival were observed in the high income neighbourhood, suggesting a lower dengue transmission risk in comparison to the suburban area and the slum. Since results show that urban structure can influence mosquito biology, specific control strategies might be used in order to achieve cost-effective Ae. aegypti control.

Field optimisation of MosquiTRAP sampling for monitoring Aedes aegypti Linnaeus (Diptera: Culicidae)

A sticky trap designed to capture gravid Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti mosquitoes, MosquiTRAP, has been evaluated for monitoring this species in Brazil. However, the effects of trap densities on the capture rate of Ae. aegypti females and the sensitivity of vector detection are still unknown. After a preliminary study has identified areas of high and low female mosquito abundance, a set of experiments was conducted in four neighbourhoods of Belo Horizonte (state of Minas Gerais, Brazil) using densities of 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 and 64 traps per block. Trap sensitivity (positive MosquiTRAP index) increased significantly when 1-8 MosquiTRAPs were installed per block in both high and low abundance areas. A strong fit was obtained for the total number of mosquitoes captured with increasing trap densities through a non-linear function (Box-Lucas) (r² = 0,994), which likely exhibits saturation towards an equilibrium level. The capacity of the Mean Female Aedes Index to distinguish between areas of high and low Ae. aegypti abundance was also investigated; the achieved differentiation was shown to be dependent on the MosquiTRAP density.

DISTINCT TEMPORALITIES IN THE BREAST CANCER DISEASE PROCESS

Comprehensive approach study aimed understanding the reflections and contrasts between personal time and medical therapy protocol time in the life of a young woman with breast cancer. Addressed as a situational study and grounded in Beth’s life story about getting sick and dying of cancer at age 34, the study’s data collection process employed interviews, observation and medical record analysis. The construction of the analytic-synthetic box based on the chronology of Beth’s clinical progression, treatment phases and temporal perception of occurrences enabled us to point out a linear medical therapy protocol time identified by the diagnosis and treatment sequencing process. On the other hand, Beth’s experienced time was marked by simultaneous and non-linear events that generated suffering resulting from the disease. Such comprehension highlights the need for healthcare professionals to take into account the time experienced by the patient, thus providing an indispensable cancer therapeutic protocol with a personal character.

Reconsolidation of the soil surface after tillage discontinuity, with and without cultivation, related to erosion and its prediction with RUSLE

Site-specific regression coefficient values are essential for erosion prediction with empirical models. With the objective to investigate the surface-soilconsolidation factor, Cf, linked to the RUSLE's prior-land-use subfactor, PLU, an erosion experiment using simulated rainfall on a 0.075 m m-1 slope, sandy loam Paleudult soil, was conducted at the Agriculture Experimental Station of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (EEA/UFRGS), in Eldorado do Sul, State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Firstly, a row-cropped area was excluded from cultivation (March 1995), the existing crop residue removed from the field, and the soil kept clean-tilled the rest of the year (to get a degraded soil condition for the intended purpose of this research). The soil was then conventional-tilled for the last time (except for a standard plot which was kept continuously cleantilled for comparison purposes), in January 1996, and the following treatments were established and evaluated for soil reconsolidation and soil erosion until May 1998, on duplicated 3.5 x 11.0 m erosion plots: (a) fresh-tilled soil, continuously in clean-tilled fallow (unit plot); (b) reconsolidating soil without cultivation; and (c) reconsolidating soil with cultivation (a crop sequence of three corn- and two black oats cycles, continuously in no-till, removing the crop residues after each harvest for rainfall application and redistributing them on the site after that). Simulated rainfall was applied with a Swanson's type, rotating-boom rainfall simulator, at 63.5 mm h-1 intensity and 90 min duration, six times during the two-and-half years of experimental period (at the beginning of the study and after each crop harvest, with the soil in the unit plot being retilled before each rainfall test). The soil-surface-consolidation factor, Cf, was calculated by dividing soil loss values from the reconsolidating soil treatments by the average value from the fresh-tilled soil treatment (unit plot). Non-linear regression was used to fit the Cf = e b.t model through the calculated Cf-data, where t is time in days since last tillage. Values for b were -0.0020 for the reconsolidating soil without cultivation and -0.0031 for the one with cultivation, yielding Cf-values equal to 0.16 and 0.06, respectively, after two-and-half years of tillage discontinuation, compared to 1.0 for fresh-tilled soil. These estimated Cf-values correspond, respectively, to soil loss reductions of 84 and 94 %, in relation to soil loss from the fresh-tilled soil, showing that the soil surface reconsolidated intenser with cultivation than without it. Two distinct treatmentinherent soil surface conditions probably influenced the rapid decay-rate of Cf values in this study, but, as a matter of a fact, they were part of the real environmental field conditions. Cf-factor curves presented in this paper are therefore useful for predicting erosion with RUSLE, but their application is restricted to situations where both soil type and particular soil surface condition are similar to the ones investigate in this study.

Surface and subsurface decomposition of a desiccated grass pasture biomass related to erosion and its prediction with RUSLE

Erosion is deleterious because it reduces the soil's productivity capacity for growing crops and causes sedimentation and water pollution problems. Surface and buried crop residue, as well as live and dead plant roots, play an important role in erosion control. An efficient way to assess the effectiveness of such materials in erosion reduction is by means of decomposition constants as used within the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation - RUSLE's prior-land-use subfactor - PLU. This was investigated using simulated rainfall on a 0.12 m m-1 slope, sandy loam Paleudult soil, at the Agriculture Experimental Station of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, in Eldorado do Sul, State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The study area had been covered by native grass pasture for about fifteen years. By the middle of March 1996, the sod was mechanically mowed and the crop residue removed from the field. Late in April 1996, the sod was chemically desiccated with herbicide and, about one month later, the following treatments were established and evaluated for sod biomass decomposition and soil erosion, from June 1996 to May 1998, on duplicated 3.5 x 11.0 m erosion plots: (a) and (b) soil without tillage, with surface residue and dead roots; (c) soil without tillage, with dead roots only; (d) soil tilled conventionally every two-and-half months, with dead roots plus incorporated residue; and (e) soil tilled conventionally every six months, with dead roots plus incorporated residue. Simulated rainfall was applied with a rotating-boom rainfall simulator, at an intensity of 63.5 mm h-1 for 90 min, eight to nine times during the experimental period (about every two-and-half months). Surface and subsurface sod biomass amounts were measured before each rainfall test along with the erosion measurements of runoff rate, sediment concentration in runoff, soil loss rate, and total soil loss. Non-linear regression analysis was performed using an exponential and a power model. Surface sod biomass decomposition was better depicted by the exponential model, while subsurface sod biomass was by the power model. Subsurface sod biomass decomposed faster and more than surface sod biomass, with dead roots in untilled soil without residue on the surface decomposing more than dead roots in untilled soil with surface residue. Tillage type and frequency did not appreciably influence subsurface sod biomass decomposition. Soil loss rates increased greatly with both surface sod biomass decomposition and decomposition of subsurface sod biomass in the conventionally tilled soil, but they were minimally affected by subsurface sod biomass decomposition in the untilled soil. Runoff rates were little affected by the studied treatments. Dead roots plus incorporated residues were effective in reducing erosion in the conventionally tilled soil, while consolidation of the soil surface was important in no-till. The residual effect of the turned soil on erosion diminished gradually with time and ceased after two years.

Modelling of soil penetration resistance for an oxisol under no-tillage

Soil penetration resistance is an important property that affects root growth and elongation and water movement in the soil. Since no-till systems tend to increase organic matter in the soil, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficiency with which soil penetration resistance is estimated using a proposed model based on moisture content, density and organic matter content in an Oxisol containing 665, 221 and 114 g kg-1 of clay, silt and sand respectively under annual no-till cropping, located in Londrina, Paraná State, Brazil. Penetration resistance was evaluated at random locations continually from May 2008 to February 2011, using an impact penetrometer to obtain a total of 960 replications. For the measurements, soil was sampled at depths of 0 to 20 cm to determine gravimetric moisture (G), bulk density (D) and organic matter content (M). The penetration resistance curve (PR) was adjusted using two non-linear models (PR = a Db Gc and PR' = a Db Gc Md), where a, b, c and d are coefficients of the adjusted model. It was found that the model that included M was the most efficient for estimating PR, explaining 91 % of PR variability, compared to 82 % of the other model.

Multivariate analysis and geostatistics of the fertility of a humic rhodic hapludox under coffee cultivation

The spatial variability of soil and plant properties exerts great influence on the yeld of agricultural crops. This study analyzed the spatial variability of the fertility of a Humic Rhodic Hapludox with Arabic coffee, using principal component analysis, cluster analysis and geostatistics in combination. The experiment was carried out in an area under Coffea arabica L., variety Catucai 20/15 - 479. The soil was sampled at a depth 0.20 m, at 50 points of a sampling grid. The following chemical properties were determined: P, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, S, Al3+, pH, H + Al, SB, t, T, V, m, OM, Na saturation index (SSI), remaining phosphorus (P-rem), and micronutrients (Zn, Fe, Mn, Cu and B). The data were analyzed with descriptive statistics, followed by principal component and cluster analyses. Geostatistics were used to check and quantify the degree of spatial dependence of properties, represented by principal components. The principal component analysis allowed a dimensional reduction of the problem, providing interpretable components, with little information loss. Despite the characteristic information loss of principal component analysis, the combination of this technique with geostatistical analysis was efficient for the quantification and determination of the structure of spatial dependence of soil fertility. In general, the availability of soil mineral nutrients was low and the levels of acidity and exchangeable Al were high.

Water storage variability in a vineyard soil in the southern highlands of Santa Catarina state

In the subtropical regions of southern Brazil, rainfall distribution is uneven, which results in temporal variability of soil water storage. For grapes, water is generally available in excess and water deficiency occurs only occasionally. Furthermore, on the Southern Plateau of Santa Catarina, there are differences in soil properties, which results in high spatial variability. These two factors affect the composition of wine grapes. Spatio-temporal analyses are therefore useful in the selection of cultural practices as well as of adequate soils for vineyards. In this way, well-suited areas can produce grapes with a more appropriate composition for the production of quality wines. The aim of this study was to evaluate the spatio-temporal variability of water storage in a Cambisol during the growth cycle of a Cabernet Sauvignon vineyard and its relation to selected soil properties. The experimental area consisted of a commercial 8-year-old vineyard in São Joaquim, Santa Catarina, Brazil. A sampling grid with five rows and seven points per row, spaced 12 m apart, was outlined on an area of 3,456 m². Soil samples were collected with an auger at these points, 0.30 m away from the grapevines, in the 0.00-0.30 m layer, to determine gravimetric soil moisture. Measurements were taken once a week from December 2008 to April 2009, and every two weeks from December 2009 to March 2010. In December 2008, undisturbed soil samples were collected to determine bulk density, macro- and microporosity, and disturbed samples were used to quantify particle size distribution and organic carbon content. Results were subjected to descriptive analysis and semivariogram analysis, calculating the mean relative difference and the Pearson correlation. The average water storage in a Cambisol under grapevine on ridges had variable spatial dependence, i.e., the lower the average water storage, the higher the range of spatial dependence. Water storage had a stable spatial pattern during the trial period, indicating that the points with lower water storage or points with higher water storage during a certain period maintain these conditions throughout the experimental period. The relative difference is a simple method to identify positions that represent the average soil water storage more adequately at any time for a given area.

Macronutrient uptake, accumulation and export by the irrigated 'vitória' pineapple plant

The nutritional state of the pineapple plant has a large effect on plant growth, on fruit production, and fruit quality. The aim of this study was to assess the uptake, accumulation, and export of nutrients by the irrigated 'Vitória' pineapple plant during and at the end of its development. A randomized block statistical design with four replications was used. The treatments were defined by different times of plant collection: at 270, 330, 390, 450, 510, 570, 690, 750, and 810 days after planting (DAP). The collected plants were separated into the following components: leaves, stem, roots, fruit, and slips for determination of fresh and dry matter weight at 65 ºC. After drying, the plant components were ground for characterization of the composition and content of nutrients taken up and exported by the pineapple plant. The results were subjected to analysis of variance, and non-linear regression models were fitted for the significant differences identified by the F test (p<0.01). The leaves and the stem were the plant components that showed the greatest accumulation of nutrients. For production of 72 t ha-1 of fruit, the macronutrient accumulation in the 'Vitória' pineapple exhibited the following decreasing order: K > N > S > Ca > Mg > P, which corresponded to 898, 452, 134, 129, 126, and 107 kg ha-1, respectively, of total accumulation. The export of macronutrients by the pineapple fruit was in the following decreasing order: K > N > S > Ca > P > Mg, which was equivalent to 18, 17, 11, 8, 8, and 5 %, respectively, of the total accumulated by the pineapple. The 'Vitória' pineapple plant exported 78 kg ha-1 of N, 8 kg ha-1 of P, 164 kg ha-1 of K, 14 kg ha-1 of S, 10 kg ha-1 of Ca, and 6 kg ha-1 of Mg by the fruit. The nutrient content exported by the fruits represent important components of nutrient extraction from the soil, which need to be restored, while the nutrients contained in the leaves, stems and roots can be incorporated in the soil within a program of recycling of crop residues.

USE OF SCALED SEMIVARIOGRAMS IN THE PLANNING SAMPLE OF SOIL PHYSICAL PROPERTIES IN SOUTHERN AMAZONAS, BRAZIL

There is a great lack of information from soil surveys in the southern part of the State of Amazonas, Brazil. The use of tools such as geostatistics may improve environmental planning, use and management. In this study, we aimed to use scaled semivariograms in sample design of soil physical properties of some environments in Amazonas. We selected five areas located in the south of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, with varied soil uses, such as forest, archaeological dark earth (ADE), pasture, sugarcane cropping, and agroforestry. Regular mesh grids were set up in these areas with 64 sample points spaced at 10 m from each other. At these points, we determined the particle size composition, soil resistance to penetration, moisture, soil bulk density and particle density, macroporosity, microporosity, total porosity, and aggregate stability in water at a depth of 0.00-0.20 m. Descriptive and geostatistical analyses were performed. The sample density requirements were lower in the pasture area but higher in the forest. We concluded that managed-environments had differences in their soil physical properties compared to the natural forest; notably, the soil in the ADE environment is physically improved in relation to the others. The physical properties evaluated showed a structure of spatial dependence with a slight variability of the forest compared to the others. The use of the range parameter of the semivariogram analysis proved to be effective in determining an ideal sample density.

USE OF SCALED SEMIVARIOGRAMS IN THE PLANNING SAMPLE OF SOIL CHEMICAL PROPERTIES IN SOUTHERN AMAZONAS, BRAZIL

The lack of information concerning the variability of soil properties has been a major concern of researchers in the Amazon region. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the spatial variability of soil chemical properties and determine minimal sampling density to characterize the variability of these properties in five environments located in the south of the State of Amazonas, Brazil. The five environments were archaeological dark earth (ADE), forest, pasture land, agroforestry operation, and sugarcane crop. Regular 70 × 70 m mesh grids were set up in these areas, with 64 sample points spaced at 10 m distance. Soil samples were collected at the 0.0-0.1 m depth. The chemical properties of pH in water, OM, P, K, Ca, Mg, H+Al, SB, CEC, and V were determined at these points. Data were analyzed by descriptive and geostatistical analyses. A large part of the data analyzed showed spatial dependence. Chemical properties were best fitted to the spherical model in almost all the environments evaluated, except for the sugarcane field with a better fit to the exponential model. ADE and sugarcane areas had greater heterogeneity of soil chemical properties, showing a greater range and higher sampling density; however, forest and agroforestry areas had less variability of chemical properties.

Ecophysiological response of Sorghum halepense populations to reduced rates of nicosulfuron

The control and regrowth after nicosulfuron reduced rate treatment of Johnsongrass (Sorghum halepense L. Pers.) populations, from seven Argentinean locations, were evaluated in pot experiments to assess if differential performance could limit the design and implementation of integrated weed management programs. Populations from humid regions registered a higher sensibility to reduced rates of nicosulfuron than populations from subhumid regions. This effect was visualised in the values of regression coefficient of the non-linear models (relating fresh weight to nicosulfuron rate), and in the time needed to obtain a 50% reduction of photosynthesis rate and stomatal conductance. The least leaf CO2 exchange of subhumid populations could result in a lower foliar absorption and translocation of nicosulfuron, thus producing less control and increasing their ability to sprout and produce new aerial biomass. The three populations from subhumid regions, with less sensibility to nicosulfuron rates, presented substantial difference in fresh weight, total rhizome length and number of rhizome nodes, when they were evaluated 20 week after treatment. In consequence, a substantial Johnsongrass re-infestation could occur, if rates below one-half of nicosulfuron labeled rate were used to control Johnsongrass in subhumid regions.