Schistosomiasis risk mapping in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, using a decision tree approach, remote sensing data and sociological indicators

Schistosomiasis mansoni is not just a physical disease, but is related to social and behavioural factors as well. Snails of the Biomphalaria genus are an intermediate host for Schistosoma mansoni and infect humans through water. The objective of this study is to classify the risk of schistosomiasis in the state of Minas Gerais (MG). We focus on socioeconomic and demographic features, basic sanitation features, the presence of accumulated water bodies, dense vegetation in the summer and winter seasons and related terrain characteristics. We draw on the decision tree approach to infection risk modelling and mapping. The model robustness was properly verified. The main variables that were selected by the procedure included the terrain's water accumulation capacity, temperature extremes and the Human Development Index. In addition, the model was used to generate two maps, one that included risk classification for the entire of MG and another that included classification errors. The resulting map was 62.9% accurate.

Full-length genomic sequence of hepatitis B virus genotype C2 isolated from a native Brazilian patient

The hepatitis B virus (HBV) is among the leading causes of chronic hepatitis, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. In Brazil, genotype A is the most frequent, followed by genotypes D and F. Genotypes B and C are found in Brazil exclusively among Asian patients and their descendants. The aim of this study was to sequence the entire HBV genome of a Caucasian patient infected with HBV/C2 and to infer the origin of the virus based on sequencing analysis. The sequence of this Brazilian isolate was grouped with four other sequences described in China. The sequence of this patient is the first complete genome of HBV/C2 reported in Brazil.

Entrepreneurial decision-making using the knightian uncertainty approach

The article discusses the behavioral aspects that affect the entrepreneurs' decision making under the Knightian uncertainty approach. Since the profit arising from entrepreneurial activity represents the reward of an immeasurable and subjective risk, it has been hypothesized that innovative entrepreneurs have excessive optimism and confidence, which leads them to invest in high-risk activities. A behavioral model of decision making under uncertainty is used to test the hypothesis of overconfidence. This model is based on Bayesian inference, which allows us to model the assumption that these entrepreneurs are overconfident. We conclude that, under the hypothesis of overconfidence, these entrepreneurs decide to invest, despite the fact that the expected utility model indicates the contrary. This theoretical finding could explain why there are a large number of business failures in the first years of activity.

Runoff measurement and prediction for a watershed under natural vegetation in central Brazil

This work aimed to measure and analyze total rainfall (P), rainfall intensity and five-day antecedent rainfall effects on runoff (R); to compare measured and simulated R values using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number method (CN) for each rainfall event; and to establish average R/P ratios for observed R values. A one-year (07/01/96 to 06/30/97) rainfall-runoff data study was carried out in the Capetinga watershed (962.4 ha), located at the Federal District of Brazil, 47° 52' longitude West and 15° 52' latitude South. Soils of the watershed were predominantly covered by natural vegetation. Total rainfall and runoff for the period were 1,744 and 52.5 mm, respectively, providing R/P of 3% and suggesting that watershed physical characteristics favored water infiltration into the soil. A multivariate regression analysis for 31 main rainfall-runoff events totaling 781.9 and 51.0 mm, respectively, indicated that the amount of runoff was only dependent upon rainfall volume. Simulated values of total runoff were underestimated about 15% when using CN method and an area-weighted average of the CN based on published values. On the other hand, when average values of CN were calculated for the watershed, total runoff was overestimated about 39%, suggesting that CN method shoud be used with care in areas under natural vegetation.

Recovery of soil physical properties by green manure, liming, gypsum and pasture and spontaneous native species¹

Inadequate usage can degrade natural resources, particularly soils. More attention has been paid to practices aiming at the recovery of degraded soils in the last years, e.g, the use of organic fertilizers, liming and introduction of species adapted to adverse conditions. The purpose of this study was therefore to investigate the recovery of physical properties of a Red Latosol (Oxisol) degraded by the construction of a hydroelectric power station. In the study area, a soil layer about 8m thick had been withdrawn by heavy machines leading not only to soil compaction, but resulting in high-degree degradation. The experiment was arranged in a completely randomized design with nine treatments and four replications. The treatments consisted of: 1- soil mobilization by tilling (to ensure the effect of mechanical mobilization in all treatments) without planting, but growth of spontaneous vegetation; 2- Black velvet bean (Stizolobium aterrimum Piper & Tracy); 3- Pigeonpea (Cajanus cajan (L.) DC); 4- Liming + black velvet bean; 5-Liming + pigeonpea until 1994, when replaced by jack bean (Canavalia ensiformis); 6- Liming + gypsum + black velvet bean; 7- Liming + gypsum + pigeonpea until 1994, when replaced by jack bean; and two controls as reference: 8- Native Cerrado vegetation and 9- bare soil (no tilling and no planting), left under natural conditions and in this situation, without spontaneous vegetation. In treatments 1 through 7, the soil was tilled. Treatments were installed in 1992 and left unmanaged for seven years, until brachiaria (Brachiaria decumbens) was planted in all plots in 1999. Seventeen years after implantation, the properties soil macroporosity, microporosity, total porosity, bulk density and aggregate stability were assessed in the previously described treatments in the soil layers 0.00-0.10; 0.10-0.20 and 0.20-0.40 m, and soil Penetration Resistance and soil moisture in 0.00-0.15 and 0.15-0.30 m. The plants were evaluated for: brachiaria dry matter and spontaneous growth of native tree species in the plots as of 2006. Results were analyzed by variance analysis and Tukey´s test at 5 % for mean comparison. In all treatments, except for the bare soil (no recovery measures), ongoing recovery of the degraded soil physical properties was observed. Macroporosity, soil bulk density and total porosity were good soil quality indicators. The occurrence of spontaneous native species indicated the soil recovery process. The best adapted species was Machaerium acutifolium Vogel, with the largest number of plants and most advanced development; the dry matter production of B. decumbens in recovering soil was similar to normal conditions, evidencing soil recovery.