Chagas disease as a mechanistic model for testing a novel hypothesis

The association between depression and cardiovascular disease is well documented. Nevertheless, the process through which they are linked remains unknown, as does the direction of this relationship. Studies have suggested both that depression is a risk factor for heart disease and that heart disease is a risk factor for depression. A number of studies have established that a relationship exists between depression and inflammation, with alterations in the levels of inflammatory markers (IL-1, IL-6, TNF-alpha and others). Depressive symptoms have also been identified in many diseases characterized by inflammatory processes e.g. rheumatoid arthritis, bronchial asthma, diabetes, tuberculosis and cardiovascular diseases. In this brief viewpoint, we explain and propose how to use Chagas disease, a disorder characterized by inflammatory processes and leading to cardiovascular and autonomic problems, as a model for studying the directionality of the relationship between heart disease and depression.

A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

Molecular characterization of Trypanosoma cruzi Mexican strains and their behavior in the mouse experimental model

INTRODUCTION: For a long time, the importance of Chagas disease in Mexico, where many regarded it as an exotic malady, was questioned. Considering the great genetic diversity among isolates of Trypanosoma cruzi, the importance of this biological characterization, and the paucity of information on the clinical and biological aspects of Chagas disease in Mexico, this study aimed to identify the molecular and biological characterization of Trypanosoma cruzi isolates from different endemic areas of this country, especially of the State of Jalisco. METHODS: Eight Mexican Trypanosoma cruzi strains were biologically and genetically characterized (PCR specific for Trypanosoma cruzi, multiplex-PCR, amplification of space no transcript of the genes of the mini-exon, amplification of polymorphic regions of the mini-exon, classification by amplification of intergenic regions of the spliced leader genes, RAPD - (random amplified polymorphic DNA). RESULTS: Two profiles of parasitaemia were observed, patent (peak parasitaemia of 4.6×10(6) to 10(7) parasites/mL) and subpatent. In addition, all isolates were able to infect 100% of the animals. The isolates mainly displayed tropism for striated (cardiac and skeletal) muscle. PCR amplification of the mini-exon gene classified the eight strains as TcI. The RAPD technique revealed intraspecies variation among isolates, distinguishing strains isolated from humans and triatomines and according to geographic origin. CONCLUSIONS: The Mexican T. cruzi strains are myotrophic and belong to group TcI.