59 resultados para Maximum entropy statistical estimate
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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the seroprevalence of HIV, hepatitis B and C and syphilis and to describe risk behaviors associated to their transmission among recyclable waste collectors. METHODS: A seroepidemiological survey was carried out in the city of Santos, Southeastern Brazil, in 2005. A total of 315 individuals were enrolled in the survey, of which 253 subjects underwent serological testing HIV, hepatitis B and C and syphilis. Statistical analysis consisted of univariate and bivariate analyses (cross-tabulation and odds ratio) and multivariate analysis (by logistic regression), relating HIV infection with established risk behaviors and seropositivity. RESULTS: Overall seroprevalences were: HIV, 8.9%; hepatitis B, 34.4%; hepatitis C, 12.4%; and syphilis, 18.4%. Subjects were characterized by a predominance of males with low educational and economic levels, subjected to parenteral and sexual exposures to HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. Multivariate analysis results indicated that risk factors for both sexually and parenterally related exposure were significantly associated with HIV in this community. CONCLUSIONS: Seroprevalences found in the study were approximately 10 to 12 times higher than the national average. These communities are socially marginalized and generally not recognized by national programs as potentially endangered populations.
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The objective of the study was to develop regression models to describe the epidemiological profile of dental caries in 12-year-old children in an area of low prevalence of caries. Two distinct random probabilistic samples of schoolchildren (n=1,763) attending public and private schools in Piracicaba, Southeastern Brazil, were studied. Regression models were estimated as a function of the most affected teeth using data collected in 2005 and were validated using a 2001 database. The mean (SD) DMFT index was 1.7 (2.08) in 2001 and the regression equations estimated a DMFT index of 1.67 (1.98), which corresponds to 98.2% of the DMFT index in 2001. The study provided detailed data on the caries profile in 12-year-old children by using an updated analytical approach. Regression models can be an accurate and feasible method that can provide valuable information for the planning and evaluation of oral health services.
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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence and identify correlates of physical activity among adolescents. METHODS: Cross-sectional study nested within a cohort of 4,325 subjects from the city of Pelotas, Southern Brazil, aged 14-15 years in 2008. Physical activity was analyzed using three different approaches: (1) prevalence of any leisure-time physical activity; (2) prevalence of any active commuting to school; and (3) prevalence of engaging in at least 300 minutes per week of both (1) and (2) combined. Independent variables included sociodemographic, behavioral, social, and biological characteristics, and number of different leisure-time physical activites practiced. Statistical analyses were carried out using Poisson regression. RESULTS: The proportion of adolescents involved in any type of leisure-time physical activity was 75.6%, while 73.4% displayed some form of active commuting to school. Prevalence of total physical activity score (> 300 min/week) was 48.2%, being greater among boys (62.6%) than among girls (34.5%). Furthermore, prevalence increased along with the number of physical activity modalities practiced (p<0.001). Factors associated with greater physical activity (leisure + commuting) at the recommended levels were: nonwhite skin color, having failed at school, and playing videogames. Lower socioeconomic status, more time spent on the computer, and parental physical activity were associated with the outcome only among girls. CONCLUSIONS: Less than half the adolescents reached recommended levels of physical activity, and this proportion tended to decrease among subjects with higher socioeconomic level. Associated factors were different for leisure-time and commuting. Engaging in a wide variety of physical activities should be encouraged already during childhood.
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OBJECTIVE To analyze the association between concentrations of air pollutants and admissions for respiratory causes in children. METHODS Ecological time series study. Daily figures for hospital admissions of children aged < 6, and daily concentrations of air pollutants (PM10, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO) were analyzed in the Região da Grande Vitória, ES, Southeastern Brazil, from January 2005 to December 2010. For statistical analysis, two techniques were combined: Poisson regression with generalized additive models and principal model component analysis. Those analysis techniques complemented each other and provided more significant estimates in the estimation of relative risk. The models were adjusted for temporal trend, seasonality, day of the week, meteorological factors and autocorrelation. In the final adjustment of the model, it was necessary to include models of the Autoregressive Moving Average Models (p, q) type in the residuals in order to eliminate the autocorrelation structures present in the components. RESULTS For every 10:49 μg/m3 increase (interquartile range) in levels of the pollutant PM10 there was a 3.0% increase in the relative risk estimated using the generalized additive model analysis of main components-seasonal autoregressive – while in the usual generalized additive model, the estimate was 2.0%. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the usual generalized additive model, in general, the proposed aspect of generalized additive model − principal component analysis, showed better results in estimating relative risk and quality of fit.
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ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To estimate the required number of public beds for adults in intensive care units in the state of Rio de Janeiro to meet the existing demand and compare results with recommendations by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. METHODS The study uses a hybrid model combining time series and queuing theory to predict the demand and estimate the number of required beds. Four patient flow scenarios were considered according to bed requests, percentage of abandonments and average length of stay in intensive care unit beds. The results were plotted against Ministry of Health parameters. Data were obtained from the State Regulation Center from 2010 to 2011. RESULTS There were 33,101 medical requests for 268 regulated intensive care unit beds in Rio de Janeiro. With an average length of stay in regulated ICUs of 11.3 days, there would be a need for 595 active beds to ensure system stability and 628 beds to ensure a maximum waiting time of six hours. Deducting current abandonment rates due to clinical improvement (25.8%), these figures fall to 441 and 417. With an average length of stay of 6.5 days, the number of required beds would be 342 and 366, respectively; deducting abandonment rates, 254 and 275. The Brazilian Ministry of Health establishes a parameter of 118 to 353 beds. Although the number of regulated beds is within the recommended range, an increase in beds of 122.0% is required to guarantee system stability and of 134.0% for a maximum waiting time of six hours. CONCLUSIONS Adequate bed estimation must consider reasons for limited timely access and patient flow management in a scenario that associates prioritization of requests with the lowest average length of stay.
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We describe the avidity maturation of IgGs in human toxoplasmosis using sequential serum samples from accidental and natural infections. In accidental cases, avidity increased continuously throughout infection while naturally infected patients showed a different profile. Twenty-five percent of sera from chronic patients having specific IgM positive results could be appropriately classified using exclusively the avidity test data. To take advantage of the potentiality of this technique, antigens recognized by IgG showing steeper avidity maturation were identified using immunoblot with KSCN elution. Two clusters of antigens, in the ranges of 21-24 kDa and 30-33 kDa, were identified as the ones that fulfill the aforementioned avidity characteristics.
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The prevalence of TT virus (TTV) infection was investigated by Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) in low- (blood donors and healthy children/adolescents) and high-risk (hemophiliacs) groups from São Paulo, Brazil. Primers based on the untranslated region (UTR) of the viral genome proved to be much more ubiquitous, leading to much higher frequencies for both groups ( > or = 81%) than the earlier N22-PCR directed to the open reading frame 1 (blood donors, 5.5%, and hemophiliacs, 42.3%). The UTR-PCR also revealed an interesting profile for healthy children/adolescents: very high prevalence at the early years and significant decrease in male teenagers. The N22-PCR, in turn, demonstrated higher frequency in hemophiliacs treated with fresh blood products (58%), than in those treated with virus-inactivated clotting factors (9.4%) and blood donors (5.5%).
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Antibody in human sera that induces lysis of sheep erythrocytes in hemolytic assay was investigated. The present study showed that the presence in serum of the thermostable cytolytic anti-sheep red blood cells antibodies is dependent on the Schistosoma mansoni infection, and this is more frequent in adults than in children. The thermostable characteristic of hemolysins in normal sera was not dependent on the presence of Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura or hookworm geo-helminths. Further, thermostable complement-activating heterophile antibodies were noticed in children in association with massive number of S. mansoni eggs. The results were obtained by using the z- and the chi-square tests. The z-test allows us to formulate a one-sided alternative, i.e., a tendency of one of the attributes. On the other hand, the chi-square test analyzes the independence between attributes by using a contingency table. Besides the obtained results being interesting in the field of schistosomiasis mansoni, they can provide a new insight into the use of statistics in medical science.
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To estimate the frequency of anti-Toxocara sp. antibodies, and evaluate factors associated with this infection, sera from 242 male and female children, aged from one to fifteen years old, attended at the Hospital of the Federal University of Uberlândia, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, were analyzed by ELISA. Information on the patients was collected and registered using an investigative questionnaire, and details on possible clinical alterations were obtained from the medical charts of 187 patients. Of a total of 242 samples, 21 (8.7%) were positive for anti-Toxocara sp. antibodies. The presence of dogs and cats and the school variable (place of contact), appeared to be significantly associated (p < 0.05) with a positive serology. Respiratory symptoms and eosinophil counts greater than 20% also showed a positive statistical correlation with a positive serology for Toxocara sp.. Factors such as sex and age, and symptoms like headache, stomach ache, convulsive crises and anemia were not associated with toxocariasis.
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This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of paracoccidioidal infection by intradermal reaction (Delayed-Type Hypersensitivity, DTH) to Paracoccidioides brasiliensis in rural areas in Alfenas, Southern Minas Gerais (MG) State, Brazil, and to assess risk factors (gender, occupation, age, alcohol intake and smoking) associated with infection. We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study using intradermal tests with gp 43 paracoccidioidin in 542 participants, who were previously contacted by local health agents and so spontaneously attended the test. Participants underwent an interview by filling out a registration form with epidemiological data and were tested with an intradermal administration of 0.1 mL of paracoccidioidin in the left forearm. The test was read 48 hours after injection and was considered positive if induration was greater than or equal to 5 mm. Out of 542 participants, 46.67% were positive to the skin test. Prevalence increased in accordance with an increase of age. There was statistical significance only for males. Occupation, alcohol intake and smoking habits were not significantly associated with the risk of paracoccidioidomycosis infection. There is relevance of paracoccidioidomycosis infection in such rural areas, which suggests that further epidemiological and clinical studies on this mycosis should be done in the southern part of Minas Gerais State.
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Studies on development of female reproductive system insects have shown its utility in physiological age grading. The irreversible charocter of ovarian alterations correlated with mandibular wear and presence of yellow body, were applied to estimate the physiological age of Passalus convexus and Passalus latifrons females, giving results comparable to other studies and indicating the value of these methods in determination of physiological age.
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Body composition analysis is relevant to characterize the nutritional requirements and finishing phase of fish. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between ichthyometric (weight, total and standard length, density and yields), bromatological (fat, protein, ash and water content) and bioelectrical-impedance-analysis (BIA) (resistance, reactance, phase angle and composition indexes) variables in the hybrid tambatinga (Colossoma macropomum × Piaractus brachypomus). In a non-fertilized vivarium, 520 juveniles were housed and fed commercial rations. Then, 136 days after hatching (DAH), 15 fish with an average weight of 37.69 g and average total length of 12.96 cm were randomly chosen, anesthetized (eugenol) and subjected to the first of fourteen fortnightly assessments (BIA and biometry). After euthanasia, the following parts were weighed: whole carcass with the head, fillet, and skin (WC); fillet with skin (FS); and the remainder of the carcass with the head (CH). Together, FS and CH were ground and homogenized for the bromatological analyses. Estimates of the body composition and yields of tambatinga, with models including ichthyometric and BIA variables, showed correlation coefficients ranging from 0.81 (for the FS yield) to 1,00 (for the total ash). Similarly, models that included only BIA variables had correlation coefficients ranging from 0.81 (FS and CH yields) to 0.98 (for the total ash). Therefore, in tambatinga, the BIA technique allows the estimation of the yield of the fillet with skin and the body composition (water content, fat, ash, and protein). The best models combine ichthyometric and BIA variables.
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ABSTRACT The spatial distribution of forest biomass in the Amazon is heterogeneous with a temporal and spatial variation, especially in relation to the different vegetation types of this biome. Biomass estimated in this region varies significantly depending on the applied approach and the data set used for modeling it. In this context, this study aimed to evaluate three different geostatistical techniques to estimate the spatial distribution of aboveground biomass (AGB). The selected techniques were: 1) ordinary least-squares regression (OLS), 2) geographically weighted regression (GWR) and, 3) geographically weighted regression - kriging (GWR-K). These techniques were applied to the same field dataset, using the same environmental variables derived from cartographic information and high-resolution remote sensing data (RapidEye). This study was developed in the Amazon rainforest from Sucumbíos - Ecuador. The results of this study showed that the GWR-K, a hybrid technique, provided statistically satisfactory estimates with the lowest prediction error compared to the other two techniques. Furthermore, we observed that 75% of the AGB was explained by the combination of remote sensing data and environmental variables, where the forest types are the most important variable for estimating AGB. It should be noted that while the use of high-resolution images significantly improves the estimation of the spatial distribution of AGB, the processing of this information requires high computational demand.
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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the behavior of blood pressure during exercise in patients with hypertension controlled by frontline antihypertension drugs. METHODS: From 979ergometric tests we retrospectively selected 49 hipertensive patients (19 males). The age was 53±12 years old and normal range rest arterial pressure (<=140/90 mmHg) all on pharmacological monotherapy. There were 12 on beta blockers; 14 on calcium antagonists, 13 on diuretics and 10 on angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor. Abnormal exercise behhavior of blood pressure was diagnosed if anyone of the following criteria was detected: peak systolic pressure above 220 mmHg, raising of systolic pressure > or = 10 mmHg/MET; or increase of diastolic pressure greater than 15 mmHg. RESULTS: Physiologic response of arterial blood pressure occurred in 50% of patients on beta blockers, the best one (p<0.05), in 36% and 31% on calcium antagonists and on diuretics, respectively, and in 20% on angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor, the later the leastr one (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Beta-blockers were more effective than calcium antagonists, diuretics and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors in controlling blood pressure during exercise, and angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors the least effective drugs.