Predictors of local malaria outbreaks: an approach to the development of an early warning system in Colombia

Risk factor surveillance is a complementary tool of morbidity and mortality surveillance that improves the likelihood that public health interventions are implemented in a timely fashion. The aim of this study was to identify population predictors of malaria outbreaks in endemic municipalities of Colombia with the goal of developing an early warning system for malaria outbreaks. We conducted a multiple-group, exploratory, ecological study at the municipal level. Each of the 290 municipalities with endemic malaria that we studied was classified according to the presence or absence of outbreaks. The measurement of variables was based on historic registries and logistic regression was performed to analyse the data. Altitude above sea level [odds ratio (OR) 3.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34-9.98], variability in rainfall (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.40-2.44) and the proportion of inhabitants over 45 years of age (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.08-0.38) were factors associated with malaria outbreaks in Colombian municipalities. The results suggest that environmental and demographic factors could have a significant ability to predict malaria outbreaks on the municipal level in Colombia. To advance the development of an early warning system, it will be necessary to adjust and standardise the collection of required data and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast models.

Factors associated with 56-day non-return rate in dairy cattle

The objective of this work was to identify factors associated with the 56-day non-return rate (56-NRR) in dairy herds in the Galician region, Spain, and to estimate it for individual Holstein bulls. The experiment was carried out in herds originated from North-West Spain, from September 2008 to August 2009. Data of the 76,440 first inseminations performed during this period were gathered. Candidate factors were tested for their association with the 56-NRR by using a logistic model (binomial). Afterwards, 37 sires with a minimum of 150 first performed inseminations were individually evaluated. Logistic models were also estimated for each bull, and predicted individual 56-NRR rate values were calculated as a solution for the model parameters. Logistic regression found four major factors associated with 56-NRR in lactating cows: age at insemination, days from calving to insemination, milk production level at the time of insemination, and herd size. First-service conception rate, when a particular sire was used, was higher for heifers (0.71) than for lactating cows (0.52). Non-return rates were highly variable among bulls. Asignificant part of the herd-level variation of 56-NRR of Holstein cattle seems attributable to the service sire. High correlation level between observed and predicted 56-NRR was found.

Maternal age and adverse perinatal outcomes in a birth cohort (BRISA) from a Northeastern Brazilian city

PURPOSE:To verify the existence of associations between different maternal ages and the perinatal outcomes of preterm birth and intrauterine growth restriction in the city of São Luís, Maranhão, Northeastern Brazil.METHODS:A cross-sectional study using a sample of 5,063 hospital births was conducted in São Luís, from January to December 2010. The participants comprise the birth cohort for the study "Etiological factors of preterm birth and consequences of perinatal factors for infant health: birth cohorts from two Brazilian cities" (BRISA). Frequencies and 95% confidence intervals were used to describe the results. Multiple logistic regression models were applied to assess the adjusted odds ratio (OR) of maternal age associated with the following outcomes: preterm birth and intrauterine growth restriction.RESULTS:The percentage of early teenage pregnancy (12–15 years old) was 2.2%, and of late (16–19 years old) was 16.4%, while pregnancy at an advanced maternal age (>35 years) was 5.9%. Multivariate analyses showed a statistically significant increase in preterm births among females aged 12–15 years old (OR=1.6; p=0.04) compared with those aged 20–35 years. There was also a higher rate in preterm births among females aged 16–19 years old (OR=1.3; p=0.01). Among those with advanced maternal age (>35 years old), the increase in the prevalence of preterm birth had only borderline statistical significance (OR=1.4; p=0.05). There was no statistically significant association between maternal age and increased prevalence of intrauterine growth restriction.

Babesia canis vogeli infection in dogs and ticks in the semiarid region of Pernambuco, Brazil

Abstract:This study aimed to report the prevalence of Babesia canis vogeli in dogs and ticks in the urban and rural areas of Petrolina, Pernambuco. Serum and peripheral blood samples of 404 dogs were tested by indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA) and by blood smears, respectively. The presence of tick infestation was evaluated, and some specimens were submitted to DNA amplification by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The presence of antibodies anti-B. canis vogeli was determinate in 57.9% (234/404) of dogs. The direct detection of Babesia spp was obtained in 0.5% (2/404) dogs by visualization of intraerythrocytic forms. Infestation by Rhipicephalus sanguineus sensu lato was observed in 54.5% (220/404) of dogs in both urban and rural areas. DNA of Babesia canis vogeli were obtained by PCR in 6% individual (3/50) and 8.7% of pool of ticks (7/80). The risk factors for the presence of anti-B. canis vogeli antibodies, as determined through the application of logistic regression models (P<0.05), were the following: medium breed size variables (P<0.001); contact with areas of forest (P=0.021); and access on the street (P=0.046). This study describes, for the first time, the confirmation of infection of B. canis vogeli in dogs and ticks in the semiarid region of Pernambuco, Brazil.

Vascular complications of black patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Southern Brazil

Ethnicity has been shown to be associated with micro- and macrovascular complications of diabetes in European and North American populations. We analyzed the contribution of ethnicity to the prevalence of micro- and macrovascular complications in Brazilian subjects with type 2 diabetes attending the national public health system. Data from 1810 subjects with type 2 diabetes (1512 whites and 298 blacks) were analyzed cross-sectionally. The rates of ischemic heart disease, peripheral vascular disease, stroke, distal sensory neuropathy, and diabetic retinopathy were assessed according to self-reported ethnicity using multiple logistic regression models. Compared to whites, black subjects [odds ratio = 1.72 (95%CI = 1.14-2.6)] were more likely to have ischemic heart disease when data were adjusted for age, sex, fasting plasma glucose, HDL cholesterol, hypertension, smoking habit, and serum creatinine. Blacks were also more likely to have end-stage renal disease [3.2 (1.7-6.0)] and proliferative diabetic retinopathy [1.9 (1.1-3.2)] compared to whites when data were adjusted for age, sex, fasting plasma glucose, HDL cholesterol, hypertension, and smoking habit. The rates of peripheral vascular disease, stroke and distal sensory neuropathy did not differ between groups. The higher rates of ischemic heart disease, end-stage renal disease and proliferative diabetic retinopathy in black rather than in white Brazilians were not explained by differences in conventional risk factors. Identifying which aspects of ethnicity confer a higher risk for these complications in black patients is crucial in order to understand why such differences exist and to develop more effective strategies to reduce the onset and progression of these complications.

Amniotic fluid amino acid levels in non-immune hydrops fetalis: a case-control study

In a prospective case-control study, we compared the amniotic fluid amino acid levels in non-immune hydrops fetalis (NIHF) and normal fetuses. Eighty fetuses underwent amniocentesis for different reasons at the prenatal diagnosis unit of the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Faculty of Medicine, Dicle University. Forty of these fetuses were diagnosed with NIHF. The study included 40 women each in the NIHF (mean age: 27.69 ± 4.56 years) and control (27.52 ± 5.49 years) groups, who had abnormal double- or triple-screening test values with normal fetuses with gestational ages of 23.26 ± 1.98 and 23.68 ± 1.49 weeks at the time of sample collection, respectively. Amniotic fluid amino acid concentrations (intra-assay variation: 2.26-7.85%; interassay variation: 3.45-8.22%) were measured using EZ:faast kits (EZ:faast GC/FID free (physiological) amino acid kit; Phenomenex, USA) by gas chromatography. The standard for quantitation was a mixture of free amino acids from Phenomenex. The levels of 21 amino acids were measured. The mean phosphoserine and serine levels were significantly lower in the NIHF group, while the taurine, α-aminoadipic acid (aaa), glycine, cysteine, NH4, and arginine (Arg) levels were significantly higher compared to control. Significant risk variables for the NIHF group and odds coefficients were obtained using a binary logistic regression method. The respective odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the risk variables phosphoserine, taurine, aaa, Arg, and NH4 were 3.31 (1.84-5.97), 2.45 (1.56-3.86), 1.78 (1.18-2.68), 2.18 (1.56-3.04), and 2.41 (1.66-3.49), respectively. The significant difference between NIHF and control fetuses suggests that the amniotic fluid levels of some amino acids may be useful for the diagnosis of NIHF.

Percent body fat is a better predictor of cardiovascular risk factors than body mass index

The objective of the present study was to evaluate the predictive values of percent body fat (PBF) and body mass index (BMI) for cardiovascular risk factors, especially when PBF and BMI are conflicting. BMI was calculated by the standard formula and PBF was determined by bioelectrical impedance analysis. A total of 3859 ambulatory adult Han Chinese subjects (2173 males and 1686 females, age range: 18-85 years) without a history of cardiovascular diseases were recruited from February to September 2009. Based on BMI and PBF, they were classified into group 1 (normal BMI and PBF, N = 1961), group 2 (normal BMI, but abnormal PBF, N = 381), group 3 (abnormal BMI, but normal PBF, N = 681), and group 4 (abnormal BMI and PBF, N = 836). When age, gender, lifestyle, and family history of obesity were adjusted, PBF, but not BMI, was correlated with blood glucose and lipid levels. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for cardiovascular risk factors in groups 2 and 4 were 1.88 (1.45-2.45) and 2.06 (1.26-3.35) times those in group 1, respectively, but remained unchanged in group 3 (OR = 1.32, 95%CI = 0.92-1.89). Logistic regression models also demonstrated that PBF, rather than BMI, was independently associated with cardiovascular risk factors. In conclusion, PBF, and not BMI, is independently associated with cardiovascular risk factors, indicating that PBF is a better predictor.

Association of adult weight gain and nonalcoholic fatty liver in a cross-sectional study in Wan Song Community, China

Our objective was to examine associations of adult weight gain and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Cross-sectional interview data from 844 residents in Wan Song Community from October 2009 to April 2010 were analyzed in multivariate logistic regression models to examine odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) between NAFLD and weight change from age 20. Questionnaires, physical examinations, laboratory examinations, and ultrasonographic examination of the liver were carried out. Maximum rate of weight gain, body mass index, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, cholesterol, triglycerides, uric acid, and alanine transaminase were higher in the NAFLD group than in the control group. HDL-C in the NAFLD group was lower than in the control group. As weight gain increased (measured as the difference between current weight and weight at age 20 years), the OR of NAFLD increased in multivariate models. NAFLD OR rose with increasing weight gain as follows: OR (95%CI) for NAFLD associated with weight gain of 20+ kg compared to stable weight (change <5 kg) was 4.23 (2.49-7.09). Significantly increased NAFLD OR were observed even for weight gains of 5-9.9 kg. For the “age 20 to highest lifetime weight” metric, the OR of NAFLD also increased as weight gain increased. For the “age 20 to highest lifetime weight” metric and the “age 20 to current weight” metric, insulin resistance index (HOMA-IR) increased as weight gain increased (P<0.001). In a stepwise multivariate regression analysis, significant association was observed between adult weight gain and NAFLD (OR=1.027, 95%CI=1.002-1.055, P=0.025). We conclude that adult weight gain is strongly associated with NAFLD.

Gender, race and socioeconomic influence on diagnosis and treatment of thyroid disorders in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil)

Thyroid diseases are common, and use of levothyroxine is increasing worldwide. We investigated the influence of gender, race and socioeconomic status on the diagnosis and treatment of thyroid disorders using data from the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil), a multicenter cohort study of civil servants (35-74 years of age) from six Brazilian cities. Diagnosis of thyroid dysfunction was by thyrotropin (TSH), and free thyroxine (FT4) if TSH was altered, and the use of specific medications. Multivariate logistic regression models were constructed using overt hyperthyroidism/hypothyroidism and levothyroxine use as dependent variables and sociodemographic characteristics as independent variables. The frequencies of overt hyper- and hypothyroidism were 0.7 and 7.4%, respectively. Using whites as the reference ethnicity, brown, and black race were protective for overt hypothyroidism (OR=0.76, 95%CI=0.64-0.89, and OR=0.53, 95%CI=0.43-0.67, respectively, and black race was associated with overt hyperthyroidism (OR=1.82, 95%CI=1.06-3.11). Frequency of hypothyroidism treatment was higher in women, browns, highly educated participants and those with high net family incomes. After multivariate adjustment, levothyroxine use was associated with female gender (OR=6.06, 95%CI=3.19-11.49) and high net family income (OR=3.23, 95%CI=1.02-10.23). Frequency of hyperthyroidism treatment was higher in older than in younger individuals. Sociodemographic factors strongly influenced the diagnosis and treatment of thyroid disorders, including the use of levothyroxine.