The three phases of the ensemble forecasting of niche models: geographic range and shifts in climatically suitable areas of Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae)

Species' geographic ranges are usually considered as basic units in macroecology and biogeography, yet it is still difficult to measure them accurately for many reasons. About 20 years ago, researchers started using local data on species' occurrences to estimate broad scale ranges, thereby establishing the niche modeling approach. However, there are still many problems in model evaluation and application, and one of the solutions is to find a consensus solution among models derived from different mathematical and statistical models for niche modeling, climatic projections and variable combination, all of which are sources of uncertainty during niche modeling. In this paper, we discuss this approach of ensemble forecasting and propose that it can be divided into three phases with increasing levels of complexity. Phase I is the simple combination of maps to achieve a consensual and hopefully conservative solution. In Phase II, differences among the maps used are described by multivariate analyses, and Phase III consists of the quantitative evaluation of the relative magnitude of uncertainties from different sources and their mapping. To illustrate these developments, we analyzed the occurrence data of the tiger moth, Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae), a Neotropical moth species, and modeled its geographic range in current and future climates.

Notes on the geographic distribution and subspecific taxonomy of Sais rosalia (Cramer) (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae, Ithomiini), including the first records in Paraguay

Notes on the geographic distribution and subspecific taxonomy of Sais rosalia (Cramer) (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae, Ithomiini), including the first records in Paraguay. This paper provides comments on the subspecific taxonomy and geographic distribution of Sais rosalia (Cramer, 1779) (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae, Ithomiini), as well as an up-to-date distributional map, complemented with unpublished distributional data based on specimens deposited in the Coleção Entomológica Pe. Jesus S. Moure, Curitiba, Brazil and the Museo de Historia Natural, Lima, Peru. The following synonyms are proposed: Sais rosalia camariensis Haensch, 1905 syn. rev. as junior subjective synonym of Papilio rosalia Cramer, 1779 and Sais rosalia brasiliensis Talbot, 1928 syn. rev. as junior subjective synonym of Sais rosalia rosalinde Weymer, 1890. Additionally, the first country records of Sais rosalia in Paraguay, including the southernmost record of the species, are documented.

Constant fluctuating asymmetry but not directional asymmetry along the geographic distribution of Drosophila antonietae (Diptera, Drosophilidae)

ABSTRACT The population dynamics of a species tends to change from the core to the periphery of its distribution. Therefore, one could expect peripheral populations to be subject to a higher level of stress than more central populations (the center–periphery hypothesis) and consequently should present a higher level of fluctuating asymmetry. To test these predictions we study asymmetry in wing shape of five populations of Drosophila antonietae collected throughout the distribution of the species using fluctuating asymmetry as a proxy for developmental instability. More specifically, we addressed the following questions: (1) what types of asymmetry occur in populations of D. antonietae? (2) Does the level of fluctuating asymmetry vary among populations? (3) Does peripheral populations have a higher fluctuating asymmetry level than central populations? We used 12 anatomical landmarks to quantify patterns of asymmetry in wing shape in five populations of D. antonietae within the framework of geometric morphometrics. Net asymmetry – a composite measure of directional asymmetry + fluctuating asymmetry – varied significantly among populations. However, once net asymmetry of each population is decomposed into directional asymmetry and fluctuating asymmetry, most of the variation in asymmetry was explained by directional asymmetry alone, suggesting that populations of D. antonietae have the same magnitude of fluctuating asymmetry throughout the geographical distribution of the species. We hypothesize that larval development in rotting cladodes might play an important role in explaining our results. In addition, our study underscores the importance of understanding the interplay between the biology of a species and its geographical patterns of asymmetry.

CLASSIFICATION OF FOREST ROADS AND DETERMINATION OF ROUTE USING GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM

ABSTRACT Geographic Information System (GIS) is an indispensable software tool in forest planning. In forestry transportation, GIS can manage the data on the road network and solve some problems in transportation, such as route planning. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the pattern of the road network and define transport routes using GIS technology. The present research was conducted in a forestry company in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The criteria used to classify the pattern of forest roads were horizontal and vertical geometry, and pavement type. In order to determine transport routes, a data Analysis Model Network was created in ArcGIS using an Extension Network Analyst, allowing finding a route shorter in distance and faster. The results showed a predominance of horizontal geometry classes average (3) and bad (4), indicating presence of winding roads. In the case of vertical geometry criterion, the class of highly mountainous relief (4) possessed the greatest extent of roads. Regarding the type of pavement, the occurrence of secondary coating was higher (75%), followed by primary coating (20%) and asphalt pavement (5%). The best route was the one that allowed the transport vehicle travel in a higher specific speed as a function of road pattern found in the study.

Genotype characterization of Haematobia irritans from different Brazilian geographic regions based on randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) analysis

Blood-sucking diptera are important parasites in bovine production systems, especially regarding confinement conditions. Haematobia irritans, the horn fly, is one of the most troublesome species within bovine production systems, due to the intense stress imposed to the animals. An important aspect while studying the variability within a species is the study of the geographic structure of its populations and, attempting to find out the genetic flow of Brazilian populations of horn fly, the RAPD technique, which is suited for this purpose, has been used. The use of molecular markers generated from RAPD made it possible to identify the geographic origin of samples from different Brazilian geographic regions, as well as to estimate the genotypic flow among the different Brazilian populations of the horn fly.

Occurrence of Akodon cursor (Rodentia, Cricetidae) with 14, 15 and 16 chromosome cytotypes in the same geographic area in Southern Brazil

The karyotype of Akodon cursor (initially identified as A. arviculoides) had been reported with chromosomal numbers 14 and 15 in the South and Southeast and 16 in Northeastern Brazil. We found the three cytotypes in a region of Southern Brazil. The G-band patterns of these specimens were the same as those from southeastern and northeastern regions. Seventeen different combinations of chromosomes due to a complex rearrangement in pair 1 and pericentric inversions in pairs 2 and 3 were identified. Seven of these combinations are new to in the literature.

Geographic distribution of hepatitis C virus genotypes in Brazil

Brazil is a country of continental dimension with a population of different ethnic backgrounds. Thus, a wide variation in the frequencies of hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes is expected to occur. To address this point, 1,688 sequential samples from chronic HCV patients were analyzed. HCV-RNA was amplified by the RT-PCR from blood samples collected from 1995 to 2000 at different laboratories located in different cities from all Brazilian States. Samples were collected in tubes containing a gel separator, centrifuged in the site of collection and sent by express mail in a refrigerated container to Laboratório Bioquímico Jardim Paulista, São Paulo, SP, Brazil. HCV- RNA was extracted from serum and submitted to RT and nested PCR using standard procedures. Nested PCR products were submitted to cycle sequencing reactions without prior purification. Sequences were analyzed for genotype determination and the following frequencies were found: 64.9% (1,095) for genotype 1, 4.6% (78) for genotype 2, 30.2% (510) for genotype 3, 0.2% (3) for genotype 4, and 0.1% (2) for genotype 5. The frequencies of HCV genotypes were statistically different among Brazilian regions (P = 0.00017). In all regions, genotype 1 was the most frequent (51.7 to 74.1%), reaching the highest value in the North; genotype 2 was more prevalent in the Center-West region (11.4%), especially in Mato Grosso State (25.8%), while genotype 3 was more common in the South (43.2%). Genotypes 4 and 5 were rarely found and only in the Southeast, in São Paulo State. The present data indicate the need for careful epidemiological surveys throughout Brazil since knowing the frequency and distribution of the genotypes would provide key information for understanding the spread of HCV.

The geographic dynamics of industry employment in Brazilian metropolitan areas: lessons for São Paulo

ABSTRACTWe discuss historic trends in large metropolitan areas in Brazil showing that manufacturing has decreased its share in the country but the movement was, in general, more intense in large metropolitan areas and particularly in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA). This movement was more intense in the 1980s and in the first half of the 1990s. From mid 1990s up to the end of the 2000s, the manufacturing share trend became flat. We speculate that the first period reflects the exhaustion of the process of import substitution that took place in the previous three decades (1950 to 1980). The second period, from 1993 to 2009, is representative of a new model of growth and the evidence that manufacturing share became flat is reinforcing the idea of a new period in terms of manufacturing employment. While concentration has risen from 1996 to 2005, it decreased again in the second half of the first decade of the 2000s. The SPMA reinvented itself very quickly from late 1970s to mid-2000s.

Between system maker and privileges taker: the role of China in the Greater Mekong Sub-region

Utilizing China's leadership projects in the Great Mekong Sub-Region (GMS) as a case study, this paper aims to investigate whether China qualifies as an international leader. This work argues that its geographic position and economic rise allow China to be a "system maker and privilege taker," which is a dual role forming in economic-political relations in the GMS in the last ten years. China is among major driving forces to set up an economic zone in GMS. Growing Chinese regional power is intimately related to the creation of various hubs connecting regional transportation, communication and energy systems that foster the economic development of this region. However, China also proves dark sides of rising powers which take advantage of their privileges to gain benefits. As a "system maker" with its own position and capability, China has notably benefited from building hydropower systems. More importantly, while China is pursuing its benefits and privileges, its hydropower projects have caused some negative effects for the ecosystem in the region. The inflation of dam constructions in both China and GMS countries is raising concerns about using natural resources of the Mekong River. Our concluding part addresses the pressing need to start a serious discussion on the balance between national interests and regional solidarity within the formulation of Chinese foreign policy in GMS.

USE AND CONSEQUENCES OF PARTICIPATORY GIS IN A MEXICAN MUNICIPALITY: APPLYING A MULTILEVEL FRAMEWORK

This paper seeks to understand the use and the consequences of Participatory Geographic Information System (PGIS) in a Mexican local community. A multilevel framework was applied, mainly influenced by two theoretical lenses – structurationist view and social shaping of technology – structured in three dimensions – context, process and content – according to contextualist logic. The results of our study have brought two main contributions. The first is the refinement of the theoretical framework in order to better investigate the implementation and use of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) artifacts by local communities for social and environmental purposes. The second contribution is the extension of existing IS (Information Systems) literature on participatory practices through identification of important conditions for helping the mobilization of ICT as a tool for empowering local communities.

Narrowing inequalities in infant mortality in Southern Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To determine the trends of infant mortality from 1995 to 1999 according to a geographic area-based measure of maternal education in Porto Alegre, Brazil. METHODS: A registry-based study was carried out and a municipal database created in 1994 was used. All live births (n=119,170) and infant deaths (n=1,934) were considered. Five different geographic areas were defined according to quintiles of the percentage of low maternal educational level (<6 years of schooling): high, medium high, medium, medium low, and low. The chi-square test for trend was used to compare rates between years. Incidence rate ratio was calculated using Poisson regression to identify excess infant mortality in poorer areas compared to higher schooling areas. RESULTS: The infant mortality rate (IMR) decreased steadily from 18.38 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1995 to 12.21 in 1999 (chi-square for trend p<0.001). Both neonatal and post-neonatal mortality rates decreased although the drop seemed to be steeper for the post-neonatal component. The higher decline was seen in poorer areas. CONCLUSION: Inequalities in IMR seem to have decreased due to a steeper reduction in both neonatal and post-neonatal components of infant mortality in lower maternal schooling area.

Aedes albopictus in an area of Misiones, Argentina

Until early 1998 the presence of Aedes albopictus had never been detected in Argentina. During April of the same year, few individuals of this species were recorded in 33 breeding sites found in 25 out of 161 inspected houses in the city of Eldorado, Province of Misiones. The homogeneous spatial distribution of the proliferation foci suggests the existence of a generalized infestation in this locality during the study period.

HIV infection and AIDS in a small municipality in Southeast Brazil

OBJECTIVE: Studies on the aspects of HIV infection in small Brazilian municipalities are invaluable to appropriately design control strategies, better allocate resources, and improve health care services. The objective of the study was to assess the clinical and epidemiological aspects of HIV infection in a small municipality. METHODS: A descriptive study was carried out in Miracema, a small municipality in the northwestern area of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, between July 1999 and December 2003. All HIV-infected adult patients followed up at the local HIV/AIDS Program were included. Clinical and epidemiologic characteristics were prospectively assessed through standardized questionnaires. RESULTS: A total of 65 adult patients who attended the local HIV/AIDS Program were analyzed. Most (34) were women (male to female ratio: 0.9). An absolute predominance of patients who were born in Miracema or neighboring municipalities (94%), lived in Miracema (90.7%), were single (70.8%), attributed the acquisition of HIV infection to unprotected heterosexual intercourse (72.3%) and had a past history of snorting cocaine (27.7) was found Central nervous system disorders (including five cases of cryptococcal meningitis) and acute pulmonary pneumocystosis-like respiratory failure were major causes of morbidity. Most patients (56.9%) were at presented in advanced stages of HIV infection. CONCLUSIONS: The predominance of patients on advanced stages of HIV infection suggest the existence of a large pool of undiagnosed cases in the community. A major feature of the cohort was an inverted male to female ratio. Further investigations over a broader geographic area are urgently needed for better understanding the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of HIV infection in small Brazilian municipalities and rural areas.

Spatial analysis of urban violence based on emergency room data

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the spatial intensity of urban violence events using wavelet-based methods and emergency room data. METHODS: Information on victims attended at the emergency room of a public hospital in the city of São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, from January 1, 2002 to January 11, 2003 were obtained from hospital records. The spatial distribution of 3,540 events was recorded and a uniform random procedure was used to allocate records with incomplete addresses. Point processes and wavelet analysis technique were used to estimate the spatial intensity, defined as the expected number of events by unit area. RESULTS: Of all georeferenced points, 59% were accidents and 40% were assaults. There is a non-homogeneous spatial distribution of the events with high concentration in two districts and three large avenues in the southern area of the city of São Paulo. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital records combined with methodological tools to estimate intensity of events are useful to study urban violence. The wavelet analysis is useful in the computation of the expected number of events and their respective confidence bands for any sub-region and, consequently, in the specification of risk estimates that could be used in decision-making processes for public policies.

Presumed unconstrained dispersal of Aedes aegypti in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate dispersal of Aedes aegypti females in an area with no container manipulation and no geographic barriers to constrain mosquito flight. METHODS: A mark-release-recapture experiment was conducted in December 2006, in the dengue endemic urban district of Olaria in Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil, where there is no evident obstacle to the dispersal of Ae. aegypti females. Mosquito traps were installed in 192 houses (96 Adultraps and 96 MosquiTRAPs). RESULTS: A total of 725 dust-marked gravid females were released and recapture rate was 6.3%. Ae. aegypti females traveled a mean distance of 288.12 m and their maximum displacement was 690 m; 50% and 90% of females flew up to 350 m and 500.2 m, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Dispersal of Ae. aegypti females in Olaria was higher than in areas with physical and geographical barriers. There was no evidence of a preferred direction during mosquito flight, which was considered random or uniform from the release point.