Mortality problems in Brazil and in Germany: past-present-future. Learning from each other?

This article was written by a Swiss-German historical demographer after having visited different Brazilian Universities in 1984 as a guest-professor. It aims at promoting a real dialog between developed and developing countries, commencing the discussion with the question: Can we learn from each other? An affirmative answer is given, but not in the superficial manner in which the discussion partners simply want to give each other some "good advice" or in which the one declares his country's own development to be the solely valid standard. Three points are emphasized: 1. Using infant mortality in S. Paulo from 1908 to 1983 as an example, it is shown that Brazil has at its disposal excellent, highly varied research literature that is unjustifiably unknown to us (in Europe) for the most part. Brazil by no means needs our tutoring lessons as regards the causal relationships; rather, we could learn two things from Brazil about this. For one, it becomes clear that our almost exclusively medical-biological view is inappropriate for passing a judgment on the present-day problems in Brazil and that any conclusions so derived are thus only transferable to a limited extent. For another, we need to reinterpret the history of infant mortality in our own countries up to the past few decades in a much more encompassing "Brazilian" sense. 2. A fruitful dialog can only take place if both partners frankly present their problems. For this reason, the article refers with much emprasis to our present problems in dealing with death and dying - problems arising near the end of the demographic and epidemiologic transitions: the superanuation of the population, chronic-incurable illnesses as the main causes of death, the manifold dependencies of more and more elderly and really old people at the end of a long life. Brazil seems to be catching up to us in this and will be confronted with these problems sooner or later. A far-sighted discussion already at this time seems thus to be useful. 3. The article, however, does not want to conclude with the rather depressing state of affairs of problems alternatingly superseding each other. Despite the caution which definitely has a place when prognoses are being made on the basis of extrapolations from historical findings, the foreseeable development especially of the epidemiologic transition in the direction of a rectangular survival curve does nevertheless provide good reason for being rather optimistic towards the future: first in regards to the development in our own countries, but then - assuming that the present similar tendencies of development are stuck to - also in regard to Brazil.

Geographical patterns of proportionate mortality for the most common causes of death in Brazil

Mortality due to chronic diseases has been increasing in all regions of Brazil with corresponding decreases in mortality from infectious diseases. The geographical variation in proportionate mortality for chronic diseases for 17 Brazilian state capitals for the year 1985 and their association with socio-economic variables and infectious disease was studied. Calculations were made of correlation coefficients of proportionate mortality for adults of 30 years or above due to ischaemic heart disease, stroke and cancer of the lung, the breast and stomach with 3 socio-economic variables, race, and mortality due to infectious disease. Linear regression analysis included as independent variables the % of illiteracy, % of whites, % of houses with piped water, mean income, age group, sex, and % of deaths caused by infectious disease. The dependent variables were the % of deaths due to each one of the chronic diseases studied by age-sex group. Chronic diseases were an important cause of death in all regions of Brazil. Ischaemic heart diseases, stroke and malignant neoplasms accounted for more than 34% of the mortality in each of the 17 capitals studied. Proportionate cause-specific mortality varied markedly among state capitals. Ranges were 6.3-19.5% for ischaemic heart diseases, 8.3-25.4% for stroke, 2.3-10.4% for infections and 12.2-21.5% for malignant neoplasm. Infectious disease mortality had the highest (p < 0.001) correlation with all the four socio-economic variables studied and ischaemic heart disease showed the second highest correlation (p < 0.05). Higher socio-economic level was related to a lower % of infectious diseases and a higher % of ischaemic heart diseases. Mortality due to breast cancer and stroke was not associated with socio-economic variables. Multivariate linear regression models explained 59% of the variance among state capitals for mortality due to ischaemic heart disease, 50% for stroke, 28% for lung cancer, 24% for breast cancer and 40% for stomach cancer. There were major differences in the proportionate mortality due to chronic diseases among the capitals which could not be accounted for by the social and environmental factors and by the mortality due to infectious disease.

Cost of diseases in Brazil: breast cancer, enteritis, cardiac valve disease and bronchopneumonia

The results from the need to develop methodologies for performing cost analysis in developing countries, principally in the region of Latin America, were studied. It, furthermore, serves to generate knowledge from an economic evaluation in order to support decision-making related to the organization of health systems, particularly in the efficient use of resources which are allocated for the provision of medical services. Two chronic diseases (breast cancer and cardiac valve disease) and two infections (enteritis and bronchopneumonia) were selected for the study. The results recommend the use of a valid methodology for economic cost analysis of any disease to be studied and the use of this information in the decision-making process.

Mortality from asthma in the state of S. Paulo, Brazil (1970-1992)

Mortality from asthma has shown important variations over time in several countries. In Brazil, a mortality study performed in the 60s, covering the cities of S.Paulo and Ribeirão Preto, and other ten cities showed that S.Paulo presented the lowest death rate from asthma among of them all. It was decided to study the time trends of deaths from asthma and from the whole set of respiratory diseases from 1970 to 1992, in the population aged 15-34 yrs. old in the State of S.Paulo, as well as to compare them with those of other countries. Asthma mortality rates during the 23 years of observation since 1975, showed an oscillatory declining pattern with a peak of deaths in the initial years. The linearization of the curve allows the calculation of Pearson's correlation coefficient that was significantly negative, suggesting a decline in the mortality over this period, mainly in the 5-9 yrs. old and 30-34 yrs. old strata. The segmentation of data between the period of ICD-9, 1970 to 1978, and of ICD-9, 1979 and subsequent years, shows that there is stability within each period, in all age-groups, except for that of 5-9 yr. olds between 1970-1978. Comparing the rates of the population aged 15-34 yrs. old for the State of S. Paulo, Brazil, with trends observed in 14 other countries, an intermediate pattern for the first triennial period (1970-1972) as well as for the subsequent triennial periods, emerges. A prevalence study of asthma, a follow up program meant for using emergency rooms and a surveillance of deaths due to all respiratory diseases and specifically to asthma are strongly recommended.

Rise and fall in ischemic heart disease mortality: it may have happened before

The rise in ischemic heart disease(IHD) mortality occurring mostly during the first half of the 20th century is usually associated with economic development and its consequences for people's lifestyles. On the basis of historical evidence, it is postulated that a previous IHD epidemic cycle may have occurred in England and Wales towards the turn of the nineteenth century. The implications of this on causal theories and current etiological research on atherosclerosis are discussed.

Mortality among patients with non-affective functional psychoses in a metropolitan area of South-Eastern Brazil

High mortality rates among those suffering from schizophrenia and related psychoses have been consistently described in developed societies. However, to date there is a lack of data on this matter in Brazil. In order to examine this issue, a prospective 2-year follow-up study was carried out in S. Paulo. The sample consisted of 120 consecutive admissions to psychiatric hospitals in a defined catchment area, aged 18 to 44 years old, with clinical diagnoses of non-affective functional psychoses according to the ICD-9. After 2 years, 116 (96.7%) subjects were traced. During the study period there were 7 deaths (6.0% of those traced), 5 (4.3%) due to suicide. All but one of the suicides occurred in the first year after discharge from hospital. Age and sex Standardised Mortality Ratios (relative to rates for the population of the city of Sao Paulo) were 8.4 for overall mortality (95% confidence interval: 4.0-15.9) and 317.9 for deaths due to suicide (95% confidence interval: 125.2-668.3). These results are in agreement with previous studies, and show that in Brazil non-affective functional psychoses are life-threatening illnesses, which need adequate care, particularly when patients go back to live in the community after hospital discharge.

Risk factors for perinatal mortality in an urban area of Southern Brazil, 1993

INTRODUCTION: Although there was a considerable reduction in infant mortality in Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul in the last decade, its perinatal causes were reduced only by 28%. The associated factors of these causes were analised. MATERIAL AND METHOD: All hospital births and perinatal deaths were assessed by daily visits to all the maternity hospitals in the city, throughout 1993 and including the first week of 1994. RESULTS: The perinatal mortality rate was 22.1 per thousand births. The multivariate analysis showed the following risk factors: low socioeconomic level, male sex and maternal age above 35 years . Among multigravidae women, the fetal mortality rate was significantly increased for mothers with a previously low birthweight and a previous stillbirth. For early neonatal mortality the risk was significantly increased by a smaller number of antenatal visits than 5 and low birthweight. CONCLUSIONS: Main risk factors for perinatal mortality: low socioeconomic level, maternal age above 35 years and male sex. For early neonatal mortality the risk was significantly increased by a smaller number of antenatal visits than 5 and low birthweight.

Age transition of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: Before the Aids pandemic, demographic transition and control programs prompted a shift in the age of incidence of tuberculosis from adults to older people in many countries. The objective of the study is to evaluate this transition in Brazil. METHODS: Tuberculosis incidence and mortality data from the Ministry of Health and population data from the Brazilian Bureau of Statistics were used to calculate age-specific incidence and mortality rates and medians. RESULTS: Among reported cases, the proportion of older people increased from 10.5% to 12% and the median age from 38 to 41 years between the period of 1986 and 1996. The smallest decrease in the incidence rate occurred in the 30--49 and 60+ age groups. The median age of death increased from 53 to 55 years between 1980 and 1996. The general decline in mortality rates from 1986 to 1991 became less evident in the 30+ age group during the period of 1991 to 1996. A direct correlation between age and mortality rates was observed. The largest proportion of bacteriologically unconfirmed cases occurred in older individuals. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of tuberculosis has begun to shift to the older population. This shift results from the decline in the annual risk of infection as well as the demographic transition. An increase in reactivation tuberculosis in older people is expected, since this population will grow from 5% to 14% of the Brazilian population over the next 50 years. A progressive reduction in HIV-related cases in adults will most likely occur. The difficulty in diagnosing tuberculosis in old age leads to increased mortality.

Infant mortality and low birth weight in cities of Northeastern and Southeastern Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To compare estimates of low birth weight (LBW), preterm birth, small for gestational age (SGA), and infant mortality in two birth cohorts in Brazil. METHODS: The two cohorts were performed during the 1990s, in São Luís, located in a less developed area in Northeastern Brazil, and Ribeirão Preto, situated in a more developed region in Southeastern Brazil. Data from one-third of all live births in Ribeirão Preto in 1994 were collected (2,839 single deliveries). In São Luís, systematic sampling of deliveries stratified by maternity hospital was performed from 1997 to 1998 (2,439 single deliveries). The chi-squared (for categories and trends) and Student t tests were used in the statistical analyses. RESULTS: The LBW rate was lower in São Luís, thus presenting an epidemiological paradox. The preterm birth rates were similar, although expected to be higher in Ribeirão Preto because of the direct relationship between preterm birth and LBW. Dissociation between LBW and infant mortality was observed, since São Luís showed a lower LBW rate and higher infant mortality, while the opposite occurred in Ribeirão Preto. CONCLUSIONS: Higher prevalence of maternal smoking and better access to and quality of perinatal care, thereby leading to earlier medical interventions (cesarean section and induced preterm births) that resulted in more low weight live births than stillbirths in Ribeirão Preto, may explain these paradoxes. The ecological dissociation observed between LBW and infant mortality indicates that the LBW rate should no longer be systematically considered as an indicator of social development.

Trends in the modes of delivery and their impact on perinatal mortality rates

OBJECTIVE: To determine changes in the incidence of vaginal deliveries, cesarean sections, and forceps deliveries and their potential association with fetal, early neonatal, and perinatal mortality rates over time. METHODS: A retrospective study was carried out and the occurrence of deliveries supervised by university services between January 1991 and December 2000 was determined. Data regarding fetal, early neonatal, and perinatal deaths were assessed using obstetric and pediatric records and autopsy reports. RESULTS: Of a total of 33,360 deliveries, the incidence of vaginal deliveries, cesarean sections, and forceps deliveries was relatively steady (around 60, 30, and 10%, respectively) while, at the same time, there was a marked reduction in fetal mortality (from 33.3 to 13.0‰), early neonatal mortality (from 30.6 to 9.0‰), and perinatal mortality (from 56.4 to 19.3‰). CONCLUSIONS: The marked reduction in perinatal mortality rates seen during the study period without an increase in cesarean sections indicates that the decrease in perinatal mortality was not impacted by cesarean section rates. The plausible hypothesis seems to be that the reduction in perinatal mortality of deliveries performed under the supervision of university services was more likely to be associated with better neonatal care rather than the mode of delivery.

Infant mortality: comparison between two birth cohorts from Southeast and Northeast, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To obtain population estimates and profile risk factors for infant mortality in two birth cohorts and compare them among cities of different regions in Brazil. METHODS: In Ribeirão Preto, southeast Brazil, infant mortality was determined in a third of hospital live births (2,846 singleton deliveries) in 1994. In São Luís, northeast Brazil, data were obtained using systematic sampling of births stratified by maternity unit (2,443 singleton deliveries) in 1997-1998. Mothers answered standardized questionnaires shortly after delivery and information on infant deaths was retrieved from hospitals, registries and the States Health Secretarys' Office. The relative risk (RR) was estimated by Poisson regression. RESULTS: In São Luís, the infant mortality rate was 26.6/1,000 live births, the neonatal mortality rate was 18.4/1,000 and the post-neonatal mortality rate was 8.2/1,000, all higher than those observed in Ribeirão Preto (16.9, 10.9 and 6.0 per 1,000, respectively). Adjusted analysis revealed that previous stillbirths (RR=3.67 vs 4.13) and maternal age <18 years (RR=2.62 vs 2.59) were risk factors for infant mortality in the two cities. Inadequate prenatal care (RR=2.00) and male sex (RR=1.79) were risk factors in São Luís only, and a dwelling with 5 or more residents was a protective factor (RR=0.53). In Ribeirão Preto, maternal smoking was associated with infant mortality (RR=2.64). CONCLUSIONS: In addition to socioeconomic inequalities, differences in access to and quality of medical care between cities had an impact on infant mortality rates.

Neonatal mortality in intensive care units of Central Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To identify potential prognostic factors for neonatal mortality among newborns referred to intensive care units. METHODS: A live-birth cohort study was carried out in Goiânia, Central Brazil, from November 1999 to October 2000. Linked birth and infant death certificates were used to ascertain the cohort of live born infants. An additional active surveillance system of neonatal-based mortality was implemented. Exposure variables were collected from birth and death certificates. The outcome was survivors (n=713) and deaths (n=162) in all intensive care units in the study period. Cox's proportional hazards model was applied and a Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was used to compare the performance of statistically significant variables in the multivariable model. Adjusted mortality rates by birth weight and 5-min Apgar score were calculated for each intensive care unit. RESULTS: Low birth weight and 5-min Apgar score remained independently associated to death. Birth weight equal to 2,500g had 0.71 accuracy (95% CI: 0.65-0.77) for predicting neonatal death (sensitivity =72.2%). A wide variation in the mortality rates was found among intensive care units (9.5-48.1%) and two of them remained with significant high mortality rates even after adjusting for birth weight and 5-min Apgar score. CONCLUSIONS: This study corroborates birth weight as a sensitive screening variable in surveillance programs for neonatal death and also to target intensive care units with high mortality rates for implementing preventive actions and interventions during the delivery period.

Case-control study on infant mortality in Southern Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors associated with infant mortality and, more specifically, with neonatal mortality. METHODS: A case-control study was carried out in the municipality of Caxias do Sul, Southern Brazil. Characteristics of prenatal care and causes of mortality were assessed for all live births in the 2001-2002 period with a completed live-birth certificate and whose mothers lived in the municipality. Cases were defined as all deaths within the first year of life. As controls, there were selected the two children born immediately after each case in the same hospital, who were of the same sex, and did not die within their first year of life. Multivariate analysis was performed using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: There was a reduction in infant mortality, the greatest reduction was observed in the post-neonatal period. The variables gestational age (<36 weeks), birth weight (<2,500 g), and 5-minute Apgar (<6) remained in the final model of the multivariate analysis, after adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Perinatal conditions comprise almost the totality of neonatal deaths, and the majority of deaths occur at delivery. The challenge for reducing infant mortality rate in the city is to reduce the mortality by perinatal conditions in the neonatal period.

Caffeine effect on mortality and oviposition in successive generations of Aedes aegypti

OBJECTIVE: Previous experiments showed that caffeine blocks the development of Aedes aegypti (Diptera, Culicidae) in the larval stage, consequently inhibiting the production of adults. This study aimed at obtaining data suggestive of caffeine resistance by these mosquitoes. METHODS: Experiments were carried out in successive generations to assess adult production from eggs laid in previous generation and oviposition rate in every generation using 200 and 500 µg/mL caffeine. Tap water was used as control. Experiments were conducted in the city of São José do Rio Preto, Southeastern Brazil between 2002 and 2005. Statistical tests consisted of exploratory data analysis and smoothing algorithms. RESULTS: Increasing reduction in productivity of adults occurred among generations at both caffeine concentrations but the differences were only significant at 200µg/mL caffeine. As for the oviposition rate, there was a decrease in the mean number of eggs per female over generations at both caffeine concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence of caffeine resistance over generations. The study results corroborate caffeine as an alternative as an important Ae. Aegypti control agent to avoid resistance.

Neonatal mortality: description and effect of hospital of birth after risk adjustment

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of hospital of birth on neonatal mortality. METHODS: A birth cohort study was carried out in Pelotas, Southern Brazil, in 2004. All hospital births were assessed by daily visits to all maternity hospitals and 4558 deliveries were included in the study. Mothers were interviewed regarding potential risk factors. Deaths were monitored through regular visits to hospitals, cemeteries and register offices. Two independent pediatricians established the underlying cause of death based on information obtained from medical records and home visits to parents. Logistic regression was used to estimate the effect of hospital of birth, controlling for confounders related to maternal and newborn characteristics, according to a conceptual model. RESULTS: Neonatal mortality rate was 12.7‰ and it was highly influenced by birthweight, gestational age, and socioeconomic variables. Immaturity was responsible for 65% of neonatal deaths, followed by congenital anomalies, infections and intrapartum asphyxia. Adjusting for maternal characteristics, a three-fold increase in neonatal mortality was seen between similar complexity hospitals. The effect of hospital remained, though lower, after controlling for newborn characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Neonatal mortality was high, mainly related to immaturity, and varied significantly across maternity hospitals. Further investigations comparing delivery care practices across hospitals are needed to better understand NMR variation and to develop strategies for neonatal mortality reduction.