Para superar el estancamiento económico en México: "nudos críticos" de un proyecto nacional de desarrollo

This article is devoted to analyze changes in economic policy to be adopted by Mexico if a national development project were implemented. Starting from an evaluation of the main economic and political outcomes of Vicente’s Fox administration, the author proposes an alternative development strategy which permits Mexico to overcome economic stagnation. That strategy would be based in recovering the internal market as the dynamical focus of the economy with the purpose of satisfying basic needs of people. To be successful this strategy should to confront the "critical knots" of the Neo-liberal model: to reverse the uneven distribution of income; abandoning the fixing of restrictive monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies; and mobilizing economic surplus by means of a profound revision of debt service schemes. It concludes that to implement a national development project it is required a political and economic strategy to dismantle neoliberalism, which is an antinational structure of power.

Respostas a uma crítica marxista às perspectivas retórica e pragmática em economia

Answers to a marxist critic of the rhetorical and pragmatic perspectives in economics. Based on recent discussions regarding the rhetorical perspective in economics, this paper presents an interpretation of the philosophical approach of Habermas which attempts to rescue the so called 'modern spirit', forgotten in the annals of the 19th century, similar to that presented by Marshall Berman in 1982. Following the reconstructive approach of Habermas's project of modernity, we attempt to show how a 'rhetorical approach' could be applied in the field of economics, and yet still be clearly modern by taking into account intersubjectivities, given the expanded sphere of human communication (as defended in the theory of communicative action of Habermas). In this sense, we will seek to demonstrate the philosophical limits of the anti-rhetorical critiques of, for example, Paulani (1996, 2003, 2005, 2006), which seem to underestimate the linguistic and intersubjective aspect of Habermas's philosophical project that can also be found in McCloskey’s methodological approach.

Michal Kalecki, um pioneiro da teoria econômica do desenvolvimento

Kalecki made important contributions to development economics, which rank him among the founding fathers of this area of our discipline. The objective of this paper is to give an account of his contributions, and in particular of his conception of the peculiarities and the way of functioning of the underdeveloped economies, and of the barriers that limits their capacity for high and sustained long run growth. As most socialist economists of his time, he was skeptic about the possibilities of overcoming underdevelopment under capitalism. However, in contradistinction to other pioneers of development economics, Kalecki did not stress the international forces that hamper development, but put the accent rather in the internal institutions and social and political determinants. In particular, the feudal and semi-feudal conditions in agriculture, the reduced market ensuing from income concentration and widespread monopolization of the economy, and the lack of willingness of entrepreneurs to carry out the necessary investments. Accordingly, his economic policy recommendations emphasized also the domestic aspects involved.

O mito do populismo econômico de Vargas

The myth of Vargas' economic populism. The Second Vargas Administration in Brazil (1951-1954) is commonly associated with the phenomenon of populism. However, based on the models of economic populism, it is clear that the economic policy of the period is not the one shown by those models. Besides, based on this historic experience, it is advocated that there is no incompatibility between developmentalism and the adoption of macroeconomic stability-oriented measures.

Crescimento e industrialização no Brasil: uma interpretação à luz das propostas de Kaldor

Growth and industrialization in Brazil. In this paper, based on the writings of Kaldor and his followers, we compare two phases of Brazilian economic growth, one showing fast growth rate and other with lack of growth. Our aim is to analyze the Brazilian economic behavior in the last 40 years, pointing out economic policy intervention, structural change, foreign trade and capital flows as determinants to account for gross product development path performance. Our aim is to shed some light on which is the potential rate of growth of the Brazilian economy nowadays, considering its historical growth path and recent structural changes in the industrial sector.

Da economia política à política econômica: o novo-desenvolvimentismo e o governo Lula

From political economy to economic policy: The neo-developmentalism and the Lula administration. This article critically reviews the design of neo-developmentalist economic policies in Brazil, in the first half of the last decade, and their relationship with the economic policies of the Lula administration after 2006. Paradoxically, the neo-developmentalist policies were implemented jointly with the main (neoliberal) macroeconomic policies which had been introduced earlier. The article reviews the relevant literature, and examines the contradictory nature of this 'inflection' of economic policy. So far, this combination of policies has achieved an unquestionable - though provisional - success, despite the persistence of the structural macroeconomic problems due to the continuity of the neoliberal policies.

Taxa de câmbio real e crescimento econômico: uma comparação entre economias emergentes e desenvolvidas

Real exchange rate and economic growth: a comparison between emerging and developed economies. This paper presents a discussion on the relationship between economic growth and real exchange rate. The article presents the results generated by a dynamic panel that tested the relationship of economic growth with the level of the exchange rate, exchange rate volatility and the choice of exchange rate regime from 26 countries, 13 emerging and 13 developed. The results suggest that the level of the exchange rate and volatility are relevant for growth. Finally, the paper stresses that there are important differences when comparing developed and emerging economies.

Desenvolvimentismo e novo-desenvolvimentismo: raízes teóricas e precisões conceituais

This paper starts from the conceptualism of New Developmentalism which was proposed by its formulators and their criticism of the "old" developmentalism in order to compare both. It is elaborate in both theoretical and historical levels. In the former, it explores the theoretical streams that contributed to the formulation of economic policies that designated the Latin American developmentalism. In the latter, it focuses on the economic policy of the Brazilian import-substitution industrialization and advocates the impropriety of associating it to the irresponsibility in the management of the foreign exchange, fiscal and monetary policies, as the proposers of New Developmentalism assert. Finally, in a third stage, it resumes the propositions of the New Developmentalism and debates the pertinence of some of its policy propositions based upon theoretical considerations and the Brazilian experience which were mentioned in the previous stages.

O Plano Trienal no contexto das relações entre Brasil e Estados Unidos (1962-1963)

The Three-Year Plan in the context of the US-Brazilian relations (1962-1963). The paper analyses the US-Brazilian relations during the formulation and implementation of the Three-Year Plan by the government of João Goulart. The evidence suggests the limited economic assistance offered by the United States to Brazil, driven by political causes, played a major role in the Three-Year Plan's demise. It is argued that Goulart's links with the radical left, particularly with groups seen as communists by Washington, was the main reason behind US decision of blocking resources. The conclusions are relevant because scholars have emphasized domestic reasons only to explain the failure of the Three-Year Plan.

Overvaluation trend of the Brazilian currency in the 2000s: empirical estimation

The aim of this paper is to discuss the trend of overvaluation of the Brazilian currency in the 2000s, presenting an econometric model to estimate the real exchange rate (RER) and which should be a reference level of the RER to guide long-term economic policy. In the econometric model, we consider long-term structural and short-term components, both of which may be responsible for explaining overvaluation trend of the Brazilian currency. Our econometric exercise confirms that the Brazilian currency had been persistently overvalued throughout almost all of the period under analysis, and we suggest that the long-term reference level of the real exchange rate was reached in 2004. In July 2014, the average nominal exchange rate should have been around 2.90 Brazilian reais per dollar (against an observed nominal rate of 2.22 Brazilian reais per dollar) to achieve the 2004 real reference level (average of the year). That is, according to our estimates, in July 2014 the Brazilian real was overvalued at 30.6 per cent in real terms relative to the reference level. Based on these findings we conclude the paper suggesting a mix of policy instruments that should have been used in order to reverse the overvaluation trend of the Brazilian real exchange rate, including a target for reaching a real exchange rate in the medium and the long-run which would favor resource allocation toward more technological intensive sectors.

Historical origins of Brazilian relative backwardness

This paper relies on some data to identify the 19th century as the major period in which Brazil economy lagged behind some chosen benchmarking countries, as the USA, Canada, New Zealand, Australia and some European periphery countries. To identify the reasons for this an exercise using immigration data was used to make a decomposition of the sources of growth of the proportion of the USA per capita GDP to the Brazilian one. The results indicate that the imported human capital was responsible for 59% to 88% of this total growth between 1820 and 1900.

Neoliberalism and global capital mobility: a necessary reconsideration of textbook trade theory

Textbook theory ignores capital flows: trade determines exchange rates and specialisation. Approaches taking the effects of capital movements adequately into account are needed, and a new theory of economic policy including measures to protect the real economy from external volatility. Equilibrating textbook mechanisms cannot work unless trade-caused surpluses and deficits set exchange rates. To allow orthodox trade theory to work one must hinder capital flows from destroying its very basis, which the IMF and wrong regulatory decisions have done, penalising production and trade. A new, real economy based theory is proposed, a Neoclassical agenda of controlling capital flows and speculation.