Crescimento econômico e liquidez externa no Brasil após 1970

Economic growth and foreign liquidity in Brazil after 1970. This paper assesses the relationship between the capital account and the Brazilian economic growth according to balance-of-payments constraint approach. The Thirlwall (1979)'s simple rule is extended to take into consideration capital account and several empirical evidence using time series analysis are shown. Conversely to the simple rule when fitted rates of balance-of-payment equilibrium economic growth average bellow the observed ones, fitted rates of growth using the rule extended to international liquidity are consistently greater than the observed ones. It is fair to conclude that, first, the Brazilian economy grows better during abundant international liquidity and, second, the economy sub utilizes such advantage growing far less than it could grow.

A economia brasileira puxada pela demanda agregada

The Brazilian economy pulled by the aggregate demand. This article aims to present the demand-led growth theory and some empirical evidences for a demand-led growth regime in Brazil. First of all, we will do a brief review of the theory of demand led-growth, based in the seminal work of Kaldor (1988), for whom long-run growth is determined by the growth rate of consumption expenditures and the growth rate of exports. Based in the empirical methodology developed by Atesoglu (2002), we run some econometric tests for the hypothesis of demand-led growth for Brazilian economy. The results of such tests shown that near of 85% of GDP growth in Brazil in the period 1991-2005 is explained by variables at the demand side of the economy. Besides that, based in the methodology developed by Ledesma and Thirwall (2002), we shown that natural rate of growth for Brazilian economy is endogenous, increasing during boom times. This means that appears to be no restrictions in the supply side of the economy for a faster growth of Brazilian economy. Finally, we argue that a necessary condition for a sustained growth of Brazilian economy is the adoption of a export-led growth model. For such it is necessary to put an end on the actual over-valuation of real exchange rate.

Crescimento e industrialização no Brasil: uma interpretação à luz das propostas de Kaldor

Growth and industrialization in Brazil. In this paper, based on the writings of Kaldor and his followers, we compare two phases of Brazilian economic growth, one showing fast growth rate and other with lack of growth. Our aim is to analyze the Brazilian economic behavior in the last 40 years, pointing out economic policy intervention, structural change, foreign trade and capital flows as determinants to account for gross product development path performance. Our aim is to shed some light on which is the potential rate of growth of the Brazilian economy nowadays, considering its historical growth path and recent structural changes in the industrial sector.

Taxa real de câmbio, desalinhamento cambial e crescimento econômico no Brasil (1994-2007)

Real exchange rate, exchange rate misalignment and economic growth in Brazil: 1994-2007. In this article we argue that the Brazilian economy presented in the period 1994-2007 a tendency of real exchange rate appreciation with respect to its equilibrium value, mainly from 2005. This exchange rate misalignment has worked to reduce the growth of Brazilian economy and is the root of the re-emergence of current account deficits.

A hipótese do crescimento rápido: novos argumentos

The hypothesis of fast growth. New arguments. After the 1981-2003 quasi-stagnation, the Brazilian economy signals that it is back to fast growth. The aborted growth spurts in this period accumulated an expansion potential that is now emerging. The growth frustration was particularly significant in the case of the growth surge beginning in 1999, as an outcome of the large 1999 depreciation of the real and the substantial 1990s increase of productivity. Now this repressed growth is being spontaneously liberated. It may be additionally liberated by adequate economic policies. Improvements in macroeconomic policy and the implementation of mini micro reforms are consistent with this incremental approach.

Reciprocidade implícita e crescimento na economia internacional: uma perspectiva estruturalista

Implicit reciprocity and growth in the international economy: a structuralist perspective. This paper discusses some of the structuralist ideas about international coordination and growth in an international system formed by countries whose productive structures and technological capabilities are strongly asymmetric. These ideas are formalized taking as a point of departure the Keynesian Balance-of-Payments constrained growth model with two countries. To this model is added a function (based on the catching up literature) in which the income elasticity of the demand for exports and imports depends on the technology gap. The model allows for discussing the inter-relations between the fiscal and the industrial and technological policies. It also allows for finding the rate of growth of autonomous expenditure in the periphery which ensures that it will use all the foreign exchange it earns in promoting economic growth (the principle of "automatic reciprocity").

Por que as taxas de juros são tão elevadas no Brasil?: uma avaliação empírica

This paper aims at exploring some hypothesis to explain why real interest rate and bank spread are so high. We argue that the interest rate problem and bank spread problem are connected. More precisely, one important cause of bank spread is the high level of BCB interest rate. So, the solution of interest rate problem, so that it can converge to the levels observed in other countries, will help to reduce bank spread, and doing so contributing to the reduction of the capital cost of the Brazilian economy.

Os pilares institucionais da política cambial e a industrialização nos anos 1930

The Institutional pillars of the foreign exchange policy and industrialization in Brazil in the 1930s. The 1930s constitute one milestone in the Brazilian economic development, as the accelerated industrialization process has started and became the dominant domestic policy. This paper reviews this period focusing on the institutional changes restructuring exchange transactions, to curb financial flows and balance external payments

Ignacy Sachs e a nave espacial Terra

This paper is a short survey of the work of Ignacy Sachs - one of the pioneers of structuralist development economics and an outstanding economist dedicated to environmental economics. Sachs is Polish and a disciple of Michael Kalecki, but he is also a Brazilian and a French, given his strong ties with these two countries. He knows the importance of markets in the coordination of the economy, but, as a developmental economist, he attributes a key role to economic planning. Only through the deliberate action of the state it will be possible to achieve economic growth, reduction of inequalities, and protection of the environments - only through deliberate action way men and women will be able to conduct the Spaceship Earth to economic, social and environmental development and assure a decent work to all.

Assessing development and the idea of development in the 1950s in Brazil

The decade of 1950s was a crucial period of the industrialization of the Brazilian economy. The dominant school of thought was the national-developmentalism, which was not restricted to the sphere of economic production but also encompassed political and socio-cultural processes of change. Combining repression, persuasion and paternalism, the national state took a significantly political and economic responsibility in the social, material and symbolic modernization during the Vargas and Kubitschek administrations. However, internal disputes, foreign demands and a long legacy of socio-spatial inequalities prevented the achievement of more socially inclusive goals, leading a legacy of unanswered questions that still have currency today.

Notas sobre o pensamento de Ignácio Rangel no centenário de seu nascimento

This paper is a tribute to one of the greatest Brazilian intellectuals of the XXth century, Ignácio Rangel, at the Centenary of his birth. The two analytical pillars of his thought are discussed, namely the thesis of the long term "basic duality" of the Brazilian economy and of the national political structure, and the idea that economic planning should always involve the identification and use of idle resources. It is argued that his ideas on history and his defense of planning integrate a wider development theory, which combines structural change (industrialization, agrarian modernization, the strengthening of the financial capital, etc.) and a macro-dynamic approach on idle capacity and economic cycles. By way if conclusion the ideas are evaluated from a XXIst century perspective.

O Brasil pode repetir o milagre econômico?

This article analyze the necessary conditions for Brazilian income per capita to duplicate in a time span of fifteen years, as it happened in the 1970s. Growth accounting is used to identify the sources of growth of Asian countries (China, Hon Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan) and Brazil during periods where income per capita has doubled in the past. The main restriction for the Brazilian economy to get back the growth performance of the 1970s is the low rate of investment. To increase this rate requires a substantial increase of the domestic savings rate.

Profits and votes: Entrepreneurs and the government in Brazilian housing policy

ABSTRACTAfter more than twenty years of low housing construction output, the housing policy recovered its momentum in the country with the ascent of the Partido dos Trabalhadores (Workers' Party, PT) to the seat of the federal government. This article demonstrates - through the analysis of documents, interviews and research conducted with businessmen - that the impetus of such a state policy is a part of the PT electoral strategy, which is based on economic growth and the expansion of social programs. The research analyses the dovetailing of interests between the Lula (the Brazilian President from 2003 to 2010) administration and the civil construction business - the latter concerned with expanding its business, and the former with increasing the supply of jobs and the level of economic activity. This process culminated in the launching of the largest social housing program to be implemented in the country. Minha Casa, Minha Vida (My House, My Life), is a project in whose planning building companies played a key role, performing feasibility studies and carrying out social housing projects.

Price movement in the Brazilian land market (1994-2010): an analysis in the light of post-Keynesian theory

ABSTRACT The present study aims to evaluate crop, pasture and forest land prices in Brazil, between 1994 and 2010, in the light of Post-Keynesian theory. The results provide evidence that land, more than just a simple factor of production, must be conceived of as an economic asset. In fact, the price of rural land is determined not only by the expected profitability deriving from agricultural activities but also by the agents' expectations about its future appreciation and liquidity in an economic environment permeated with uncertainty. In this context, as an object of speculation, land has been particularly important as a store of value.