Assessing the effects of global warming and local social and economic conditions on the malaria transmission

OBJECTIVE: To show how a mathematical model can be used to describe and to understand the malaria transmission. METHODS: The effects on malaria transmission due to the impact of the global temperature changes and prevailing social and economic conditions in a community were assessed based on a previously presented compartmental model, which describes the overall transmission of malaria. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: The assessments were made from the scenarios produced by the model both in steady state and dynamic analyses. Depending on the risk level of malaria, the effects on malaria transmission can be predicted by the temperature ambient or local social and-economic conditions.

Economic burden of expected epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco, Mexico

OBJECTIVE: To determine health care costs and economic burden of epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco consumption. METHODS: A time-series analysis in Mexico (1994-2005) was carried out on seven health interventions: chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, lung cancer with and without surgical intervention, asthma in smokers and non-smokers, full treatment course with nicotine gum, and full treatment course with nicotine patch. According with Box-Jenkins methodology, probabilistic models were developed to forecast the expected changes in the epidemiologic profile and the expected changes in health care services required for selected interventions. Health care costs were estimated following the instrumentation methods and validated with consensus technique. RESULTS: A comparison of the economic impact in 2006 vs. 2008 showed 20-90% increase in expected cases depending on the disease (p<0.05), and 25-93% increase in financial requirements (p<0.01). The study data suggest that changes in the demand for health services for patients with respiratory diseases related to tobacco consumption will continue showing an increasing trend. CONCLUSIONS: In economic terms, the growing number of cases expected during the study period indicates a process of internal competition and adds an element of intrinsic competition in the management of preventive and curative interventions. The study results support the assumption that if preventive programs remain unchanged, the increasing demands for curative health care may cause great financial and management challenges to the health care system of middle-income countries like Mexico.

Neonatal mortality: description and effect of hospital of birth after risk adjustment

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of hospital of birth on neonatal mortality. METHODS: A birth cohort study was carried out in Pelotas, Southern Brazil, in 2004. All hospital births were assessed by daily visits to all maternity hospitals and 4558 deliveries were included in the study. Mothers were interviewed regarding potential risk factors. Deaths were monitored through regular visits to hospitals, cemeteries and register offices. Two independent pediatricians established the underlying cause of death based on information obtained from medical records and home visits to parents. Logistic regression was used to estimate the effect of hospital of birth, controlling for confounders related to maternal and newborn characteristics, according to a conceptual model. RESULTS: Neonatal mortality rate was 12.7‰ and it was highly influenced by birthweight, gestational age, and socioeconomic variables. Immaturity was responsible for 65% of neonatal deaths, followed by congenital anomalies, infections and intrapartum asphyxia. Adjusting for maternal characteristics, a three-fold increase in neonatal mortality was seen between similar complexity hospitals. The effect of hospital remained, though lower, after controlling for newborn characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Neonatal mortality was high, mainly related to immaturity, and varied significantly across maternity hospitals. Further investigations comparing delivery care practices across hospitals are needed to better understand NMR variation and to develop strategies for neonatal mortality reduction.

Comorbidity adjustment index for the international classification of diseases, 10

OBJECTIVE: To develop a Charlson-like comorbidity index based on clinical conditions and weights of the original Charlson comorbidity index. METHODS: Clinical conditions and weights were adapted from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision and applied to a single hospital admission diagnosis. The study included 3,733 patients over 18 years of age who were admitted to a public general hospital in the city of Rio de Janeiro, southeast Brazil, between Jan 2001 and Jan 2003. The index distribution was analyzed by gender, type of admission, blood transfusion, intensive care unit admission, age and length of hospital stay. Two logistic regression models were developed to predict in-hospital mortality including: a) the aforementioned variables and the risk-adjustment index (full model); and b) the risk-adjustment index and patient's age (reduced model). RESULTS: Of all patients analyzed, 22.3% had risk scores >1, and their mortality rate was 4.5% (66.0% of them had scores >1). Except for gender and type of admission, all variables were retained in the logistic regression. The models including the developed risk index had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.86 (full model), and 0.76 (reduced model). Each unit increase in the risk score was associated with nearly 50% increase in the odds of in-hospital death. CONCLUSIONS: The risk index developed was able to effectively discriminate the odds of in-hospital death which can be useful when limited information is available from hospital databases.

Payment for performance in the Family Health Programme: lessons from the UK Quality and Outcomes Framework

OBJECTIVE: Payment for performance financial incentive schemes reward doctors based on the quality and the outcomes of their treatment. In Brazil, the Ministry of Health is looking to scale up its use in public hospitals and some municipalities are developing payment for performance schemes even for the Family Health Programme. In this article the Quality and Outcomes Framework used in the UK since 2004 is discussed, as well as its experience to elaborate some important lessons that Brazilian municipalities should consider before embarking on payment for performance scheme in primary care settings.

Tracking of physical activity during adolescence: the 1993 Pelotas Birth Cohort, Brazil

OBJECTIVE To analyze physical activity during adolescence in participants of the 1993 Pelotas Birth Cohort Study, Brazil. METHODS Data on leisure time physical activity at 11, 15, and 18 years of age were analyzed. At each visit, a cut-off point of 300 min/week was used to classify adolescents as active or inactive. A total of 3,736 participants provided data on physical activity at each of the three age points. RESULTS A significant decline in the proportion of active adolescents was observed from 11 to 18 years of age, particularly among girls (from 32.9% to 21.7%). The proportions of girls and boys who were active at all three age points were 28.0% and 55.1%, respectively. After adjustment for sex, economic status, and skin color, participants who were active at 11 and 15 years of age were 58.0% more likely to be active at 18 years of age compared with those who were inactive at 11 and 15 years of age. CONCLUSIONS Physical activity declined during adolescence and inactivity tended to track over time. Our findings reinforce the need to promote physical activity at early stages of life, because active behavior established early tends to be maintained over time.

Economic analysis of surgical treatment of hip fracture in older adults

OBJECTIVE To analyze the incremental cost-utility ratio for the surgical treatment of hip fracture in older patients.METHODS This was a retrospective cohort study of a systematic sample of patients who underwent surgery for hip fracture at a central hospital of a macro-region in the state of Minas Gerais, Southeastern Brazil between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2011. A decision tree creation was analyzed considering the direct medical costs. The study followed the healthcare provider’s perspective and had a one-year time horizon. Effectiveness was measured by the time elapsed between trauma and surgery after dividing the patients into early and late surgery groups. The utility was obtained in a cross-sectional and indirect manner using the EuroQOL 5 Dimensions generic questionnaire transformed into cardinal numbers using the national regulations established by the Center for the Development and Regional Planning of the State of Minas Gerais. The sample included 110 patients, 27 of whom were allocated in the early surgery group and 83 in the late surgery group. The groups were stratified by age, gender, type of fracture, type of surgery, and anesthetic risk.RESULTS The direct medical cost presented a statistically significant increase among patients in the late surgery group (p < 0.005), mainly because of ward costs (p < 0.001). In-hospital mortality was higher in the late surgery group (7.4% versus 16.9%). The decision tree demonstrated the dominance of the early surgery strategy over the late surgery strategy: R$9,854.34 (USD4,387.17) versus R$26,754.56 (USD11,911.03) per quality-adjusted life year. The sensitivity test with extreme values proved the robustness of the results.CONCLUSIONS After controlling for confounding variables, the strategy of early surgery for hip fracture in the older adults was proven to be dominant, because it presented a lower cost and better results than late surgery.

Economic crisis and counter-reform of universal health care systems: Spanish case

The economic crisis that has been affecting Europe in the 21st century has modified social protection systems in the countries that adopted, in the 20th century, universal health care system models, such as Spain. This communication presents some recent transformations, which were caused by changes in Spanish law. Those changes relate to the access to health care services, mainly in regards to the provision of care to foreigners, to financial contribution from users for health care services, and to pharmaceutical assistance. In crisis situations, reforms are observed to follow a trend which restricts rights and deepens social inequalities.

Elution of proteins from polyacrylamide eels: a simple and economic procedure

A simplified methodology for the quantitative electroelution of proteins from polyacrylamide gels is described. After staining with Coomassie Brilliant Blue R 250, the identified bands are excised from the gel and the proteins eluted using a procedure developed for use in conventional tube gel electrophoresis equipment.

Prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi and Leishmania chagasi infection and risk factors in a Colombian indigenous population

This study was carried out in order to obtain base-line data concerning the epidemiology of American Visceral Leishmaniasis and Chagas’ Disease in an indigenous population with whom the government is starting a dwelling improvement programme. Information was collected from 242 dwellings (1,440 people), by means of house to house interviews about socio-economic and environmental factors associated with Leishmania chagasi and Trypanosoma cruzi transmission risk. A leishmanin skin test was applied to 385 people and 454 blood samples were collected on filter paper in order to detect L. chagasi antibodies by ELISA and IFAT and T. cruzi antibodies by ELISA. T. cruzi seroprevalence was 8.7% by ELISA, L. chagasi was 4.6% and 5.1% by IFAT and ELISA, respectively. ELISA sensitivity and specificity for L. chagasi antibodies were 57% and 97.5% respectively, as compared to the IFAT. Leishmanin skin test positivity was 19%. L. chagasi infection prevalence, being defined as a positive result in the three-immunodiagnostic tests, was 17.1%. Additionally, 2.7% of the population studied was positive to both L. chagasi and T. cruzi, showing a possible cross-reaction. L. chagasi and T. cruzi seropositivity increased with age, while no association with gender was observed. Age (p<0.007), number of inhabitants (p<0.05), floor material (p<0.03) and recognition of vector (p<0.01) were associated with T. cruzi infection, whilst age ( p<0.007) and dwelling improvement (p<0.02) were associated with L. chagasi infection. It is necessary to evaluate the long-term impact of the dwelling improvement programme on these parasitic infections in this community.

Enteroparasitosis and their ethnographic relationship to food handlers in a tourist and economic center in Paraná, Southern Brazil

This study reports on the occurrence of enteroparasites based on data from an ethnographic study of food handlers in the city of Cascavel, Paraná, Brazil. Fecal material from 343 food handlers of both sexes, between 14 and 75 years of age, was analyzed using Lutz, modified Ritchie and Ziehl-Neelsen techniques. Ethnographic relationships were investigated by means of specific questionnaires. Positive fecal samples were found for 131 (38.2%) handlers. Endolimax nana (67.9%) was the predominant species, followed by Entamoeba coli (35.9%), Blastocystis hominis (28.2%), Entamoeba histolytica/dispar (10.1%) and Giardia duodenalis (8.4%). Protozoan infections were more common than helminth infections (p = 0.00). The positive results for some parasites were associated with the male sex, professional category, and the performance of other activities (p < 0.05). The high overall occurrence of enteroparasites found indicates improper hygiene and sanitation conditions. Effective educational measures should be implemented to prevent the transfer of pathogenic organisms to food via handling.

Malaria in the State of Amazonas: a typical Brazilian tropical disease influenced by waves of economic development

In Brazil, more than 99% of malaria cases are reported in the Amazon, and the State of Amazonas accounts for 40% of this total. However, the accumulated experience and challenges in controlling malaria in this region in recent decades have not been reported. Throughout the first economic cycle during the rubber boom (1879 to 1912), malaria was recorded in the entire state, with the highest incidence in the villages near the Madeira River in the Southern part of the State of Amazonas. In the 1970s, during the second economic development cycle, the economy turned to the industrial sector and demanded a large labor force, resulting in a large migratory influx to the capital Manaus. Over time, a gradual increase in malaria transmission was observed in peri-urban areas. In the 1990s, the stimulation of agroforestry, particularly fish farming, led to the formation of permanent Anopheline breeding sites and increased malaria in settlements. The estimation of environmental impacts and the planning of measures to mitigate them, as seen in the construction of the Coari-Manaus gas pipeline, proved effective. Considering the changes occurred since the Amsterdam Conference in 1992, disease control has been based on early diagnosis and treatment, but the development of parasites that are resistant to major antimalarial drugs in Brazilian Amazon has posed a new challenge. Despite the decreased lethality and the gradual decrease in the number of malaria cases, disease elimination, which should be associated with government programs for economic development in the region, continues to be a challenge.

Observations on the dipteran fauna in a focus of dermal leishmaniasis in the State of Minas Gerais: II. The distribution of families in relation to their medical, veterinary and economic importance

Miniature light traps used to collect Phlebotominae in a focus of dermal leishmaniasis in the eastern part of the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Over a period of seven months, the other Diptera captured in 179 light trap samples were identified to family level. The traps were placed in eight localities which constituted three different biotopes: three woodland aresas, cultivated land, and a peridomestic site. A comparison is made between the totals of Dipeterans collected in each biotope, the total numbers of families collected in each biotope and the estimated indices of diversity. Dendograms representing the degrees of association between families of Diptera in different biotopes are presented. Some families of Diptera are uniformly distributed throughout the study area; a few families seem to have become adapted to areas where human activity has induced the greatest ecological changes. The impact between Dipterans and human well-being is discussed. The availabel evidence indicates that transmission of dermal leishmaniasis does not occur in areas where sand flies can be captured in greatest densities.