The real mechanisms of the global economy

The paper presents the main arguments of Bresser Pereira's Globalization and Competition. Development strategies based on the 'conventional orthodoxy' are shown to carry serious drawbacks ("Dutch disease", pernicious effects of external saving, currency overvaluation), while a 'new developmentalism' is promoted, in spite of the widespread belief that the nation-states have been dispossessed of their room for manoeuvre because of the globalization process. The "new developmentalism" is based on domestic finance, balanced public budgets, moderate interest rates and competitiveness policies aimed at neutralizing the tendency to exchange rate overappreciation. The paper also points out a few theoretical questions the book raises.

An account of new developmentalism and its structuralist macroeconomics

This is a personal account of the definition of "new developmentalism" - a national development strategy alternative to the Washington consensus -, and of a "structuralist development macroeconomics": the sum of models that justifies theoretically that strategy. It is personal account of a collective work involving Keynesian, institutionalist and structuralist economists in Brazil that are forming a new school of thought in Brazil: a Keynesian-structuralist school. It is Keynesian because it emphasizes the demand side or the investment opportunities' side of economic growth. It is institutionalist because institutions obviously matter in achieving growth and stability. It is structuralist because it defines economic development as a structural change from low to high value added per capita industries and because it is based on two structural tendencies that limit investment opportunities: the tendency of wages to grow below productivity and the tendency to the cyclical overvaluation of the exchange rate.

Taxa de câmbio real e crescimento econômico: uma comparação entre economias emergentes e desenvolvidas

Real exchange rate and economic growth: a comparison between emerging and developed economies. This paper presents a discussion on the relationship between economic growth and real exchange rate. The article presents the results generated by a dynamic panel that tested the relationship of economic growth with the level of the exchange rate, exchange rate volatility and the choice of exchange rate regime from 26 countries, 13 emerging and 13 developed. The results suggest that the level of the exchange rate and volatility are relevant for growth. Finally, the paper stresses that there are important differences when comparing developed and emerging economies.

Taxa real de câmbio, desalinhamento cambial e crescimento econômico no Brasil (1994-2007)

Real exchange rate, exchange rate misalignment and economic growth in Brazil: 1994-2007. In this article we argue that the Brazilian economy presented in the period 1994-2007 a tendency of real exchange rate appreciation with respect to its equilibrium value, mainly from 2005. This exchange rate misalignment has worked to reduce the growth of Brazilian economy and is the root of the re-emergence of current account deficits.

Metas de inflação, taxa de câmbio real e crise externa num modelo kaleckiano

Inflation target, real exchange rate and external crisis in a Kaleckian model. Which role should the real exchange rate play in an inflation target regime? In this paper this point is discussed from the point of view of the conditions required for avoiding an external crisis. With this objective, a dynamic Kaleckian model is presented focusing on the stability of the external debt to capital ratio. The main conclusion is that policy makers should monitor closely the evolution of the real exchange rate in order to make compatible the inflation target regime with external stability.

Liberalização financeira, estabilidade macroeconômica e crescimento econômico nos países do BRIC

The objective of this paper is to analyze the relationship between exchange rate regime, capital account convertibility and economic growth in 1990-2007 period within the emerging countries that constitute what has been called BRIC - Brazil, Russia, India and China. Our hypothesis is that economic performance of these countries is the result, at least partially, of the quality of the macroeconomic policy management adopted in each country, in which exchange rate policy, capital account convertibility and the degree of external vulnerability plays a key role.

Structuralist macroeconomics and the new developmentalism

This paper first presents some basic ideas and models of a structuralist development macroeconomics that complements and actualizes the ideas of the structuralist development economics that was dominant between the 1940s and the 1960s. A system of three models focusing on the exchange rate (the tendency to the cyclical overvaluation of the exchange rate, a critique of growth with foreign savings, and new a model of the Dutch disease) shows that it is not just volatile but chronically overvalued, and for that reason it is not just a macroeconomic problem; as a long term disequilibrium, it is in the core of development economics. Second, it summarizes "new developmentalism" - a sum of growth policies based on these models and on the experience of fast-growing Asian countries.

Brazil as an emerging economy: a new economic miracle?

This article shows that abundant resources and blind faith in an optimistic future cannot result in sustainable growth in Brazil. There are great deficiencies in various areas which make sustained high growth rates almost impossible to achieve, such as the low investment ratio, deficiencies in creating human capital, high interest rates leading to an uncompetitive exchange rate and a lack of infrastructural development.

Regime cambial e mudança estrutural na indústria de transformação brasileira: evidências para o período (1994-2008)

Exchange rate regime and structural changes in the Brazilian manufacturing industry. This article proposes an analysis of the relationship between exchange rate regime and evolution of the Brazilian manufacturing industry during the period 1980-2008. Its main purpose is to detect the direction of the structural changes imposed by the new form of international insertion consolidated throughout the 1990s. The work also provides new empirical evidence regarding the assumptions of deindustrialization and "Dutch disease", which mark the current debate on the effects of the appreciation of real exchange rate in the Brazilian economy.

A graphic explanation on how a tax on exports neutralizes the Dutch disease without costs to exporters

The adequate way of neutralizing the Dutch disease is the imposition of a variable tax on the export of the commodity that originates the disease. If such tax is equivalent to the "size" of the Dutch disease, it will shifts to the right its supply curve of the commodity in relation to the exchange rate, giving the existing domestic supply and the international demand, the exchange rate will depreciate at the value of the tax, and the equilibrium exchange rate will move from the "current" to the "industrial" equilibrium.

Competitividade e restrição externa na Zona do Euro

The recent debt crisis in Greece, Ireland and Portugal has exposed the fragility existing in the Eurozone for promoting development and economic convergence between the countries that have adopted the currency. Way beyond the fear of insolvency, what is observed is a growing disparity of the most-developed countries in comparison to the less-developed ones, with perverse consequences for the last ones. Once the nominal exchange rates are fixed, the divergent movements in relative prices and wages between the countries have led to totally distinct paths for the real exchange rates. Worsening the scenario, one can observe the incompleteness of the political union, the monetarist focus of the ECB and the lack of labor mobility between the countries, what distances from the argument stated by the theory and puts in jeopardize the future of the Monetary Union.

A taxa de câmbio real e a restrição externa: uma proposta de releitura com elasticidades endógenas

This paper investigates a topic of the agenda about growth models, emphasizing the elaboration of an external constrained model with endogenous elasticity, with an emphasis on real exchange rate level as main tool for the economic development. The model is anchored in Kaldor, Thirlwall and Barbosa Filho's models and it will demonstrate that external constraint changes in the course of time.

Taxa de câmbio, exportações e crescimento: uma investigação sobre a hipótese de doença holandesa no Brasil

This paper investigates the hypothesis of Dutch disease in Brazil by the existence of a negative relationship between commodity exports and the real exchange rate, and the effects of export specialization in commodities on the Brazilian economic growth from 1999 to 2010 based on VAR model. The evidences suggested an expressive importance of commodities exports in explaining the real exchange rate changes. Moreover, commodities exports shocks were relevant to explain Brazilian economic growth rate changes, which supports the "curse" of natural resources literature.

On high interest rates in Brazil

This article examines the question of why interest rates are so high in Brazil as compared to the international average. It looks at theoretical arguments based on excessive government deficits, structural lack of private savings, inflation bias, excessive investment demand and fear of floating. An informal look at the evidence does not strongly corroborate any of these arguments. Hence a wise central bank should consider "testing" the market to make sure it is not dealing with an extreme equilibrium configuration or a long standing disequilibrium.

A política industrial chinesa como determinante de sua estratégia going global

China has experienced not only high rates of economic growth as well as an unprecedented competitive international insertion since the turn of the century. This process was not guided solely by market forces or influenced by Government intervention in the economy. Although much has been argued that China's "going global" strategy is rooted in state action, and especially its policy of exchange rate depreciation and trade policy incentives for exports and investments abroad, we argue that the major determinant of this strategy, which established the basic conditions for industrial competitiveness, was its industrial policy. The focus of this article is on the changes in China's industrial structure, emphasizing that Chinese industrial policy is a central determinant of its international insertion strategy.