U.S. subprime financial crisis contagion on BRIC and European Union stock markets

ABSTRACTThe Copula Theory was used to analyze contagion among the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and European Union stock markets with the U.S. Equity Market. The market indexes used for the period between January 01, 2005 and February 27, 2010 are: MXBRIC (BRIC), MXEU (European Union) and MXUS (United States). This article evaluated the adequacy of the main copulas found in the financial literature using log-likelihood, Akaike information and Bayesian information criteria. This article provides a groundbreaking study in the area of contagion due to the use of conditional copulas, allowing to calculate the correlation increase between indexes with non-parametric approach. The conditional Symmetrized Joe-Clayton copula was the one that fitted better to the considered pairs of returns. Results indicate evidence of contagion effect in both markets, European Union and BRIC members, with a 5% significance level. Furthermore, there is also evidence that the contagion of U.S. financial crisis was more pronounced in the European Union than in the BRIC markets, with a 5% significance level. Therefore, stock portfolios formed by equities from the BRIC countries were able to offer greater protection during the subprime crisis. The results are aligned with recent papers that present an increase in correlation between stock markets, especially in bear markets.

A erosividade das chuvas em Fortaleza (CE): II - correlação com o coeficiente de chuva e atualização do fator R no período de 1962 a 2000

A correlação entre o índice de erosividade EI30 e o coeficiente de chuva (Rc) no período de 1962 a 1981, em Fortaleza (CE), foi avaliada com o objetivo não só de analisar a viabilidade de utilização do Rc na atualização dos valores da erosividade no período de 1982 a 2000 nesse município, mas também de identificar uma equação que pudesse ser empregada para estimar a erosividade em outras localidades da zona litorânea do estado do Ceará onde não existem diagramas de pluviógrafos. Um alto coeficiente de correlação (r = 0,99**) foi encontrado entre os valores mensais do índice EI30 e o Rc. O melhor ajuste na regressão entre essas variáveis foi encontrado na equação EI30 = 73,989Rc0,7387. O emprego dessa equação permitiu atualizar o fator R em Fortaleza no período de 1962 a 2000, estendendo, dessa forma, a computação de dados de erosividade para uma série contínua de 39 anos. O fator R atualizado para essa série foi de 6.900 MJ mm (ha h ano)-1 , com 69,5 % desse valor anual distribuído nos meses de janeiro a abril. Este trabalho também forneceu informações úteis para planejar o controle da erosão e para estimar, com precisão razoável, a erosividade em outros locais do litoral cearense, desprovidos de diagramas de pluviógrafos.

La crisis del diseño directivo subnacional de la educación chilena

El texto analiza el hacer de los directivos superiores subnacionales de educación en Chile, contrastando las normas que les rigen con las funciones cumplidas. Se trata de un estudio exploratorio, cualitativo, sustentado en entrevistas semiestructuradas aplicadas a quienes ejercieron el cargo de Secretario Regional Ministerial de Educación. Los antecedentes permiten comprender las brechas entre lo definido y lo realizado, y por tanto, identificar nudos críticos que requieren ser resueltos en diversos planos. A partir de estos antecedentes se formulan propuestas en el marco de una nueva organización de la educación en el plano subnacional que orienten e impulsen su rediseño, objetivo político clave en las propuestas de modernización de la gestión del Estado.

Dinâmica espaço-temporal (1962-2006) das fitofisionomias em unidade de conservação do Cerrado no sudeste do Brasil

Estudos recentes indicam que em áreas de Cerrado protegidas das atividades antrópicas ocorre uma evolução estrutural de fitofisionomias abertas para outras mais fechadas, com tendência ao desaparecimento das primeiras. Analisou-se a dinâmica das fisionomias do Cerrado ao longo de 44 anos, na Estação Ecológica de Assis, SP, uma das poucas unidades de conservação do bioma no sudeste do Brasil, com o objetivo de caracterizar e quantificar possíveis tranformações fisionômicas no tempo e no espaço. Protegida de pressões antrópicas por longo tempo, observações de campo têm indicado um adensamento da vegetação em toda a área, rumo a um clímax de estrutura florestal. Para realizar este estudo foram utilizadas aerofotos (1962, 1984 e 1994), imagens "QuickBird" (2006) e reconhecimento de campo. Durante o período compreendido por este estudo, a área ocupada pelas fisionomias campestres foi reduzida de 23% para menos de 1% da área estudada, enquanto, no outro extremo do gradiente fisionômico, a proporção correspondente ao cerradão aumentou de 53% para 91%. O ritmo de adensamento da vegetação não foi o mesmo em toda a área, estando, aparentemente, correlacionado com a posição topográfica e diferenças edáficas. Acreditamos que as fisionomias campestres e savânicas inicialmente existentes eram mantidas em decorrência de pressões antrópicas, que impediam a evolução rumo a um clímax edafo-climático de maior fitomassa. Confirmando o que tem sido observado em outros locais, a proteção contra o fogo e a suspensão de atividades agropastoris possibilitaram uma evolução gradativa das formações abertas (campo, campo cerrado e cerrado típico) para outras mais fechadas (cerrado denso e cerradão), tendendo as primeiras ao desaparecimento, caso não ocorram novos distúrbios. As conseqüências dessas transformações, relacionadas com estratégias de manejo, conservação da biodiversidade e fixação de carbono são discutidas.

The debt crisis: a re-appraisal

The 1980s' debt crisis is a landmark in developing economies' growth and stabilization. According to the most quoted empirical articles, external shocks and vicissitudes gave rise to crisis just because of delays in stabilization policies, engendered by internal conflicts and institutional immaturity. I review some of these papers, and find out some problems - in the measurement of shocks and foreign indebtedness, namely - whose corrections lead to opposite results: external shocks and foreign indebtedness explain that crisis regardless of domestic policies. At the same time, the strong correlation of income distribution to terms of trade changes and foreign indebtedness suggest that inequality may have contributed differently to that crisis: either through an economic channel, or through a political channel based on delays in reforms.

The 2008 financial crisis and neoclassical economics

The 2008 global financial crisis was the consequence of the process of financialization, or the creation of massive fictitious financial wealth, that began in the 1980s, and of the hegemony of a reactionary ideology, namely, neoliberalism, based on self-regulated and efficient markets. Although capitalism is intrinsically unstable, the lessons from the stock-market crash of 1929 and the Great Depression of the 1930s were transformed into theories and institutions or regulations that led to the "30 glorious years of capitalism" (1948-1977) and that could have avoided a financial crisis as profound as the present one. It did not because a coalition of rentiers and "financists" achieved hegemony and, while deregulating the existing financial operations, refused to regulate the financial innovations that made these markets even more risky. Neoclassical economics played the role of a meta-ideology as it legitimized, mathematically and "scientifically", neoliberal ideology and deregulation. From this crisis a new capitalism will emerge, though its character is difficult to predict. It will not be financialized but the tendencies present in the 30 glorious years toward global and knowledge-based capitalism, where professionals will have more say than rentier capitalists, as well as the tendency to improve democracy by making it more social and participative, will b e resumed.

The effects of the global economic crisis in Latin America

The aim of this article is to analyze the current phase of the global crisis and the way it has manifested itself in Latin America. The global crisis is the most important capitalist crisis since World War II. It is a new type of debt-deflation crisis, highlighting the limits of the finance-dominated regime of accumulation and characterized by securitization. Latin American countries have not been immune to the global crisis. Since it sets limits on globalization, the impossibility of maintaining export-driven accumulation sustained by restrictive monetary and fiscal policies becomes clear. This time, there will be no way out in external markets for any country. That fact will force them to restructure productive systems and search for a way out in domestic markets and in regional spaces for integration.

The new international financial crisis: causes, consequences and perspectives

The paper investigates the recent financial crisis within a historical and comparative perspective having in mind that it is ultimately a confidence crisis, initially associated to a chain of high risk loans and financial innovations that spread thorough the international system culminating with impressive wealth losses. The financial market will eventually recover from the crisis but the outcome should be followed by a different and more disciplined set of international institutions. There will be a change on how we perceive the widespread liberal argument that the market is always efficient, or at least, more efficient than any State intervention, overcoming the false perception that the State is in opposition to the market. A deep financial crisis brings out a period of wealth losses and an adjustment process characterized by price corrections (commodities and equity price deflation) and real effects (recession and lower employment), and a period of turbulences and end of illusions is in place.

Investment in the Brazilian economy during the crisis

In this short article, it is analyzed as to whether financial flows and credit concessions explain the behavior of investment in the Brazilian economy during the 2008 crisis. Beyond the importance of demand, changes in expectations seem to be an important source of instability in investment and, as a consequence, in the economy.

Germany's socio-economic model and the Euro crisis

Germany's socio-economic model, the "social market economy", was established in West Germany after World War II and extended to the unified Germany in 1990. During a prolonged recession after the adoption of the Euro in 1998, major reforms (Agenda 2010) were introduced which many consider as the key of Germany's recent success. The reforms had mixed results: employment increased but has consisted to a large extent of precarious low-wage jobs. Growth depended on export surpluses based on an internal real devaluation (low unit labour costs) which make Germany vulnerable to global recessions as in 2009. Overall inequality increased substantially.

O Plano Trienal no contexto das relações entre Brasil e Estados Unidos (1962-1963)

The Three-Year Plan in the context of the US-Brazilian relations (1962-1963). The paper analyses the US-Brazilian relations during the formulation and implementation of the Three-Year Plan by the government of João Goulart. The evidence suggests the limited economic assistance offered by the United States to Brazil, driven by political causes, played a major role in the Three-Year Plan's demise. It is argued that Goulart's links with the radical left, particularly with groups seen as communists by Washington, was the main reason behind US decision of blocking resources. The conclusions are relevant because scholars have emphasized domestic reasons only to explain the failure of the Three-Year Plan.