CO2-response function of radiation use efficiency in rice for climate change scenarios

The objective of this work was to evaluate a generalized response function to the atmospheric CO2 concentration [f(CO2)] by the radiation use efficiency (RUE) in rice. Experimental data on RUE at different CO2 concentrations were collected from rice trials performed in several locations around the world. RUE data were then normalized, so that all RUE at current CO2 concentration were equal to 1. The response function was obtained by fitting normalized RUE versus CO2 concentration to a Morgan-Mercer-Flodin (MMF) function, and by using Marquardt's method to estimate the model coefficients. Goodness of fit was measured by the standard deviation of the estimated coefficients, the coefficient of determination (R²), and the root mean square error (RMSE). The f(CO2) describes a nonlinear sigmoidal response of RUE in rice, in function of the atmospheric CO2 concentration, which has an ecophysiological background, and, therefore, renders a robust function that can be easily coupled to rice simulation models, besides covering the range of CO2 emissions for the next generation of climate scenarios for the 21st century.

Impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climate risk for cotton cultivation in Brazil

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of the temperature increase forecasted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on agricultural zoning of cotton production in Brazil. The Northeastern region showed the highest decrease in the low-risk area for cotton cultivation due to the projected temperature increase. This area in the Brazilian Northeast may decrease from 83 million ha in 2010 to approximately 71 million ha in 2040, which means 15% reduction in 30 years. Southeastern and Center-Western regions had small decrease in areas suitable for cotton production until 2040, while the Northern region showed no reduction in these areas. Temperature increase will not benefit cotton cultivation in Brazil because dimension of low-risk areas for economic cotton production may decrease.

Climate change and future scenarios for palisade grass production in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

The objective of this work was to analyze future scenarios for palisade grass yield subjected to climate change for the state of São Paulo, Brazil. An empirical crop model was used to estimate yields, according to growing degree-days adjusted by one drought attenuation factor. Climate data from 1963 to 2009 of 23 meteorological stations were used for current climate conditions. Downscaled outputs of two general circulation models were used to project future climate for the 2013-2040 and 2043-2070 periods, considering two contrasting scenarios of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (high and low). Annual dry matter yield should be from 14 to 42% higher than the current one, depending on the evaluated scenario. Yield variation between seasons (seasonality) and years is expected to increase. The increase of dry matter accumulation will be higher in the rainy season than in the dry season, and this result is more evident for soils with low-water storage capacity. The results varied significantly between regions (<10% to >60%). Despite their higher climate potential, warmer regions will probably have a lower increase in future forage production.

Incubation period of Hemileia vastatrix in coffee plants in Brazil simulated under climate change

Risk analysis of climate change on plant diseases has great importance for agriculture since it allows the evaluation of management strategies to minimize future damages. This work aimed to simulate future scenarios of coffee rust (Hemileia vastatrix) epidemics by elaborating geographic distribution maps using a model that estimates the pathogen incubation period and the output from three General Circulation Models (CSIRO-Mk3.0, INM-CM3.0, and MIROC3.2.medres). The climatological normal from 1961-1990 was compared with that of the decades 2020s, 2050s and 2080s using scenarios A2 and B1 from the IPCC. Maps were prepared with a spatial resolution of 0.5 × 0.5 degrees of latitude and longitude for ten producing states in Brazil. The climate variables used were maximum and minimum monthly temperatures. The maps obtained in scenario A2 showed a tendency towards a reduction in the incubation period when future scenarios are compared with the climatological normal from 1961-1990. A reduction in the period was also observed in scenario B1, although smaller than that in scenario A2.

An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

Nutrient cycling disturbance in Atlantic Forest sites affected by air pollution coming from the industrial complex of Cubatão, Southeast Brazil

Several aspects of nutrient cycling were studied at two sites of Atlantic Forest, in São Paulo State, Southeast Brazil (23o46’ S; 46o18’ W), which exhibited different degrees of forest structure decline caused by the air pollution emitted by the industrial complex of Cubatão, being referred here as the most and least affected sites (MAS and LAS, respectively). These investigations were developed during 1984 - 1986, a period in which the most severe negative effects of air pollution could be observed. Concentrations and amounts of N, P, K, Ca, Mg and S in four ecosystem compartments (leaves, litter layer, soil and roots) and in rainfall, throughfall and litterfall are briefly presented. At each site, the content of mineral elements generally decreased from leaves to litterfall and litter layer on the forest floor. Soil surface layer (0 - 5 cm) in both sites was the richest in mineral elements. Soil fertility was greater at LAS. In general, nutrient amounts remaining in the compartments and cycling through the ecosystem were greater at LAS as well, which could be due to the higher complexity of the forest structure at this site. Rainfall contributed more to soil inputs of K, Ca, Mg and S than litterfall at both sites. The nutrient residence times in the litter layer were higher and the index of nutrient use efficiency was lower at the most affected site. It was concluded that nutrient cycling was disturbed by air pollution at both sites, but to a greater extent at MAS. The main consequences of the air pollution stress were detected in the flux of nutrients through litterfall and in the litter layer on the forest floor.

Effects of formaldehyde on the frog's mucociliary epithelium as a surrogate to evaluate air pollution effects on the respiratory epithelium

The increasing use of alcohol as an alternative fuel to gasoline or diesel can increase emission of formaldehyde, an organic gas that is irritant to the mucous membranes. The respiratory system is the major target of air pollutants and its major defense mechanism depends on the continuous activity of the cilia and the resulting constant transportation of mucous secretion. The present study was designed to evaluate the effects of formaldehyde on the ciliated epithelium through a relative large dose range around the threshold limit value adopted by the Brazilian legislation, namely 1.6 ppm (1.25 to 5 ppm). For this purpose, the isolated frog palate preparation was used as the target of toxic injury. Four groups of frog palates were exposed to diluted Ringer solution (control, N = 8) and formaldehyde diluted in Ringer solution at three different concentrations (1.25, 2.5 and 5.0 ppm, N = 10 for each group). Mucociliary clearance and ciliary beat frequency decreased significantly in contact with formaldehyde at the concentrations of 2.5 and 5.0 ppm after 60 min of exposure (P<0.05). We conclude that relatively low concentrations of formaldehyde, which is even below the Brazilian threshold limit value, are sufficient to cause short-term mucociliary impairment.

Temperature, air pollution, and mortality from myocardial infarction in São Paulo, Brazil

An increase in daily mortality from myocardial infarction has been observed in association with meteorological factors and air pollution in several cities in the world, mainly in the northern hemisphere. The objective of the present study was to analyze the independent effects of environmental variables on daily counts of death from myocardial infarction in a subtropical region in South America. We used the robust Poisson regression to investigate associations between weather (temperature, humidity and barometric pressure), air pollution (sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and inhalable particulate), and the daily death counts attributed to myocardial infarction in the city of São Paulo in Brazil, where 12,007 fatal events were observed from 1996 to 1998. The model was adjusted in a linear fashion for relative humidity and day-of-week, while nonparametric smoothing factors were used for seasonal trend and temperature. We found a significant association of daily temperature with deaths due to myocardial infarction (P < 0.001), with the lowest mortality being observed at temperatures between 21.6 and 22.6ºC. Relative humidity appeared to exert a protective effect. Sulfur dioxide concentrations correlated linearly with myocardial infarction deaths, increasing the number of fatal events by 3.4% (relative risk of 1.03; 95% confidence interval = 1.02-1.05) for each 10 µg/m³ increase. In conclusion, this study provides evidence of important associations between daily temperature and air pollution and mortality from myocardial infarction in a subtropical region, even after a comprehensive control for confounding factors.

Indoor NO2 air pollution and lung function of professional cooks

Studies of cooking-generated NO2 effects are rare in occupational epidemiology. In the present study, we evaluated the lung function of professional cooks exposed to NO2 in hospital kitchens. We performed spirometry in 37 cooks working in four hospital kitchens and estimated the predicted FVC, FEV1 and FEF25-75, based on age, sex, race, weight, and height, according to Knudson standards. NO2 measurements were obtained for 4 consecutive days during 4 different periods at 20-day intervals in each kitchen. Measurements were performed inside and outside the kitchens, simultaneously using Palm diffusion tubes. A time/exposure indicator was defined as representative of the cumulative exposure of each cook. No statistically significant effect of NO2 exposure on FVC was found. Each year of work as a cook corresponded to a decrease in predicted FEV1 of 2.5% (P = 0.046) for the group as a whole. When smoking status and asthma were included in the analysis the effect of time/exposure decreased about 10% and lost statistical significance. On predicted FEF25-75, a decrease of 3.5% (P = 0.035) was observed for the same group and the inclusion of controllers for smoking status and asthma did not affect the effects of time/exposure on pulmonary function parameter. After a 10-year period of work as cooks the participants of the study may present decreases in both predicted FEV1 and FEF25-75 that can reach 20 and 30%, respectively. The present study showed small but statistically significant adverse effects of gas stove exposure on the lung function of professional cooks.